Issue #803
March 5, 2023 , 2022
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Chart Rally (off of 200-day MA) Occurs. Traders Await Jobs Report.

DOW Friday closing price - 33390
SPX Friday closing price - 4045
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12290
RUT Friday closing price - 1928

The bulls were able to generate a rally this week as the indexes got down to the 200-day MA's. After checking on the fundamental picture, there was nothing specific that fueled the rally, though the opposite can also be said given that there was nothing specific that came out this week that could give the bears ammunition to cause the indexes to break the 200-day MA's and take the indexes further to the downside. It is being said that the traders are ignoring the signs that interest rates will likely stay high for longer than expected as inflation is not coming down at the expected rate. Nonetheless, it was also seen in several of the earnings reports that the economy is not yet generating the slow down that has been predicted for the past 6 months, meaning that there is not yet enough selling interest to break an important trendline, such as the 200-day is.

The bulls were able to do enough rallying on Friday to support further upside this coming week and avoid the bears from attempting to break important supports until new and negative fundamental news comes out. The only possible catalytic report scheduled this week is the Jobs report on Friday. As such, it is expected that the bulls will have the edge at the beginning of the week.

With the bulls able to break some minor daily and weekly close resistance levels, they do have some room to the upside before they encounter automatic computer and algorithm selling. In the DOW there is no resistance whatsoever until 33987 is reached. In the SPX, the resistance is at 4080, and in the NASDAQ there is open air until 12572. The SPX is the index that is the one that is the most reliable, meaning that based on Friday's close, further upside of about 35 points is likely to be seen. By the same token, these resistance levels are not likely to be broken without some positive and tangible news, meaning that if reached early in the week, there is likely to be selling seen thereafter.

It is important to note that the SPX did generate a gap up opening on Friday and given there was no news to support the gap, it will likely be closed. The gap is down at 3990 and that does suggest that the index could see a 3980 (where the 20 10-minute MA is currently at) to 4080 trading range. Last week's trading range was 117 points, meaning that a 100 point trading range this week is not only possible but likely. The NASDAQ also gapped up on Friday from 12074 and that too is a downside target for this week.

It also needs to be mentioned that the SPX and the NASDAQ made new 5 week lows and the DOW made a new 18-week low and there was no news to support the turn around. This likely means that a drop down to test those lows (as well as retest the MA line) is likely to be seen and probably seen before the Jobs Report and Inflation reports come out. This does suggest this coming week could also be very volatile, much as last week was. In fact, it does need to be noted that the low for the week was made on Thursday and the high of the week made on Friday. The same could be seen this week.

The only other thing that can be said at this time is that if the indexes do not follow these guidelines, either to the upside or the downside, that it is likely to be indicative. For example, a chart rally in the SPX above 4159 or below 3928 would be a signal impossible to ignore. Otherwise, the Jobs and Inflation reports (the latter due out the following Tuesday) are likely to determine what the stock does for the following 3-6 weeks.


GOLD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low and the closing green and above the previous week's high at $1855 (closed at $1862). Gold closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at $1864 in expected to be seen this week. The green weekly close does mean that the Gold is at least in a sideways trading range scenario that will likely be in effect for at least the next 2-3 months. By the same token, the ability of the bulls to prevent Gold from dropping down to $1790 (low last week was $1809) and closing the previous week above the established weekly close support at $1811, has expanded the trading range to the upside, with the outside possibility now of getting up as high as $1914 (instead of only up to $1882), based on intraweek values. Gold does show weekly close resistance at $1869, at $1875, at $1897 and at $1905. Support is now found at $1817, at $1811 and at $1788. As such, the sideways trading range has now been expanded to $1788 to $1905 (based on weekly closes) and reaching the outsides of that range ($1788 or $1905) will be decided by the news that comes out. For this week though, getting up to $1880/$1882 is likely to be a "gimme".

OIL generated a green weekly close and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 79.90 will be seen this week. This past week, it was stated by quite a few analysts that Oil is expected to get up to the $100 level by the summer and now, that outlook has become a real possibility as the probabilities now favor the bulls given that a decent bottom formation has now been built. The intraweek low at 70.11, made 13 weeks ago, now has 3 successful retests of it with a low at 72.47, 72.25, and the previous week at 74.05. Simply stated, the traders can now buy with confidence that negative news is needed/required for the downtrend to resume. If the bulls can get above 82.66 this week, that bottom will be confirmed and it will bring in new buying interest. Above 82.66, there is no intraweek resistance above until 85.41 is reached. Above 85.41, there is no resistance until 93.64. On a daily closing basis, there is pivotal resistance at 81.62, above that there is open air to 83.76 (old and somewhat minor) and then nothing until 92.64 (decent). As far as support on a daily closing basis, it is pivotal between 73.10 and 73.95). The probabilities do favor the bulls and given the analysts support for $100 by summer, the chart does suggest that the objective for the next 2-4 weeks is the 92.64 level.

DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 104.10 will be seen this week. What is more important is the the bulls were unable to get above the short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at 105.63 as the high last week was 105.36. What this means is that the bears continue to be in control or at least have the edge for now. If the Dollar does go below last week's low, there is open air down to 103.40. Below that, there is nothing until 102.59. If that lower level gets broken, it is possible that the downtrend will resume. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 105.63. Probabilities favor the Dollar trading sideways for now.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions for this week. The buy mentions for last week remain in place if the desired entry points are reached. Check out last week's newsletter for details: Newsletter 2/26/2023

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 2/1

Profit of $4,855 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for February per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for February, per 100 shares and after commissions

Closed out losing trades for February per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

VNET (long) $350

Total Loss for February, per 100 shares, including commissions $350

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/1

VET (long) $36
SHOP (Short) $1283

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

DOW (long) $430
TXT (short) $64
CAT (short) $5096

Total $5,590

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 3/1

AMRX (long) $9
X (short) $176

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

SNDL (long) $84
ZLAB (long) $2995
ENG (long) $76
VET (long) $196
PLNHF (long) $50
BTZI (long) $8
SRUTF (Long $15

Total $3,609

Status of trades for month of February per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of 1,631

Status of account/portfolio for 2023, as of 2/28

Profit of $6,486

per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AMRX made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.82 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did report earnings and they were better than expected, meaning that the new lows are somewhat inexplicable and therefore open for a non-confirmation action this coming week. Fundamentally, it has been stated by the analysts following the stock that it should see the $4 level within the next 6 months, but if the bears are able to confirm the break this week, that will be difficult to achieve. On a daily "and" weekly closing basis, a confirmed close above 1.96 will negate the break (stock closed on Friday at 1.92). There is no established support below, meaning that if it continues lower there is no level where automatic buying interest will occur.

CAT generated a strong up week, having appreciated in value 7.5% over the previous week's close. The rally was based on news, given that it was announced that the company and its union agreed to a 6-year deal. The stock did generate a breakaway/runaway gap off of the news and that does give the bulls a decided edge for this week. By the same token, the all-time high at 266.06 had not been tested prior to this week, given that the previous 4 weeks since the all-time high was made were all lower highs than the previous high. Having made a new all-time high and fallen 12.5% from that high without any negative fundamental news does need/require a retest of that high before the bears climb aboard in a bigger way. As such, this rally will either become resumption of the uptrend or a retest of that high before further downside occurs. There are two levels of resistance above that are of great importance with the first one being a potential breakaway gap between 261.31 and 257.39 and the second one being a previous high daily close at 258.58. If the gap gets closed and the stock closes above 258.58. it is likely that the uptrend will resume and new highs made. Nonetheless, the agreement between the company and its union is not a positive change of fundamentals (it is just a negative that has been removed) and therefore, it is unlikely that the resistance above will be broken. What this means is that the breakaway and runaway gaps below will be targeted for closure and the breakaway gap is at 236.69. If that gap is closed, the probabilities will favor further downside with the 200-day MA, currently at 211.12 as the target. It is likely that this week will be mostly chart oriented until Friday when the Jobs report comes out. As such and for the first 4 days of the week, the resistance levels mentioned above should hold. To the downside and for this week alone, drops down as low as $245 could be seen.

DOW is in the same boat as CAT, inasmuch as the stock went above the previous week's high and this rally is likely to be the required/needed retest of the 9-month high weekly close at $60 that was made 5-weeks ago. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.66 will be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at 58.80 and again at 59.33 that should hold up if the stock is to head lower. The action this past week seems to be totally chart oriented, meaning that the bears should win this battle unless the Jobs report on Friday gives the bulls new ammunition. There is now a triple bottom at 55.85/55.83/56.06 that should be a magnet. Probabilities favor the bulls for a higher high than-last-week action on Monday but then red should follow thereafter.

ENG generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .70 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock made a new 3-year weekly closing low at .73, breaking the previous low at .74. It is not a decisive break but it does show that the bears are in full control. The stock reports earnings on March 16th (9-trading days from now) and that is likely to be the decisive factor. One thing that does need to be mentioned is that the volume is extremely low (in fact, over the past 156 weeks, this past week's volume is the 3rd lowest), meaning that there is very little interest in trading the stock at this time. Intraweek support is found .69 and intraweek resistance at .82.

PLNHF did nothing of consequence this week. As such, the same levels as stated last week (.81 to 1.05) continue to be possible trigger points. There has been no new news and no news is scheduled to be released any time soon. The volume seen the past 2 weeks has been the lowest seen in the past 3 years, meaning the traders are waiting for some catalyst to appear for movement to occur. This company is considered to be among the better cannabis companies around and not likely to head lower. The only question then being, "when will the cannabis industry start to improve?".

SHOP generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing green and above last week's high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.49 will be seen this week. There was no news to support the rally, suggesting this rally occurred mostly because the indexes rallied this past week. There is decent intraweek resistance between 45.06 and 45.43 that is likely to be seen this week but unlikely to be broken. The positive reversal week has made the chart a bit less short-term bearish but the 200-week MA, currently at 36.30, continues to be a viable downside target. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 43.40 and given that is where it closed on Friday, it does suggest the stock may rally intraday on Friday but then close red at the end of the day. If that does occur, the bears will be back in control. Otherwise, the short-term chart may change a bit.

TXT generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then going above last week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 75.09 will be seen this week. The bulls remain with a decided edge but they are facing an intraweek resistance area of note up at 75.97/76.11, which if broken would suggest the all-time high at 79.45 would be tested. The bears have had very limited success recently in backing off of this resistance area as the recent low (last week's low at 72.06) means that only a 5.3% correction from the high has occurred. This week is highly important as the resistance area is only $1.51 (2%) away from Friday's close. Evidently, a failure here will bring in new and stronger selling. On the other side of the coin, a rally above 76.11 would do the exact opposite. The stock did close in the lower half of Friday's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside with a 73.04 objective. Anything lower than that, would start giving some ammunition to the bears.

VET followed through to the upside (after the previous week's positive reversal) with a 2nd green weekly close. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 14.25 is expected to be seen this week. The stock had a gap down from 14.03 that occurred on February 17th and that caused the stock to drop down to the important intraweek support at 13.00 (dropped down to 12.9) and now that gap has been closed, meaning that the bears lost that ammunition on Friday. In addition, a failure signal against the bears was given on Friday when the closed above the previous low daily close at 13.95 (closed at 14.13). If that failure signal is confirmed on Monday with another close above 14.13, the next resistance area is not found until 14.85 and if that level gets broken on a daily closing basis, the $16-$17 level will be the objective. All of this action was supported with Natural Gas also generating a mini breakout above the 2.90 level (closed at 3.00 on Friday), meaning that a rally up to the 3.40-3.70 is now likely to occur. Daily close support in the stock is now found at 13.40. A daily close below that level will mean this mini breakout has been negated.

ZLAB generated a positive reversal week of consequence, having gone below the previous week's low and the closing convincingly above the previous week's high. The action was strongly indicative given that the gap to the upside at 33.94 (which occurred after good fundamental news came out) was not closed (last week's low was 34.36) and then the bulls were able to close above a short-term pivotal weekly close resistance area at 37.76. Both of those actions put together, suggest that the bears have lost the battle and probably lost the war as well. In addition to all of that, the bulls now show a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 36.93 as well as generating a buy signal on the daily chart, having closed on Friday above a decent daily close resistance between 40.38 and 40.69 (closed at 40.91). The bulls do have more to do to confirm all of this positive action as any negative action on Monday would defuse the strength seen on Friday. There is open air above up to the $45 level, meaning the rally should continue on Monday. Any daily close above 47.62 would not only confirm all of this but give the bulls additional an new ammunition for a rally up to the $60 level. Any daily close below 36.93 would be indicative and favor the bears.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.93.

2) X - Covered short at 31.37. Loss on the trade of $250 per 100 shares.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .73.

4) VNET - Liquidated at 4.13. Averaged long at 5.32. Loss on the trade of $238 per 100 shares (2 mentions). N

5) SHOP Shorted at 53.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.40.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 255.31.

7) AMRX - Purchased at 2.15 and at 1.87. Averaged long at 2.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.92 on Friday.

8) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.32.

9) VET - Purchased at 13.06. Averaged long at 16.73. Stop loss at 12.65. Stock closed on Friday at 14.13.

10) TXT - Averaged short at 70.77 (2 mentons). Stop loss now at 76.25. Stock closed on Friday at 74.60.

11) PLNHF - Purchased at .90. Averaged long at 1.91 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .86.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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