Issue #801
February 19, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Traders Don't Know What to do!
DOW Friday closing price - 33826
There is not a lot that can be said about this week's actions, given that on a weekly closing basis, the week turned out to be totally uneventful. Across the board, the indexes depreciated or appreciated no more/less than .005%. Simply stated, no new clues were given as to what is going to happen in the near future. The surprising thing is that this past week "was expected to be eventful", given that the inflation and Retail Sales reports were supposed to be indicative and they were expected to likely be catalysts. Nonetheless those reports, even though slightly out of line in one direction or the other, did not generate any lasting movement or new direction. Having said that though, the one thing that "did" happen is that the momentum to the upside that was generated due to expectations that the reports would be helpful, got stumped, meaning the bulls and the bears are back on the same boat, which is awaiting new news. It also means that for the next couple of weeks (until next month's important reports start coming out), the traders are likely to key on the charts and not on the fundamentals.
In keying on the charts, the outlook is short-term bearish. To begin with, the indexes did get up to an area of resistance that has gotten stronger during the past 4 weeks as the bulls have tried to break above resistance for the past 16 trading days and have failed. This means that the traders are facing an area that "requires" positive news to break. Secondly, the indexes remain in a slightly overbought condition. The overbought condition has ameliorated due to the sideways trading but it is still in the upper half of the RSI ratios. Thirdly, there is more room to the downside before pivotal levels of support are reached than to the upside and levels of resistance. This does suggest that in day or short-term trading alone, there is more to be had to the downside than to the upside.
In the DOW, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 34712 and to the downside, short-term pivotal support is at 32573. On a mid-to-longer term basis, pivotal resistance is at 36952 and to the opposite side (pivotal support), it is at 28715. The chart is suggesting that a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 30568, is the most probable scenario of all. In the SPX, short-term pivotal resistance is at 4195 and midterm it is at 4325. To the downside, there is no short-term pivotal support. The chart is open all the way down to 3764, before any short-term pivotal support is found. On a long them basis, the numbers are 4818 and 3491. The chart does suggest that a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 3709, is the most probable midterm scenario. In the NASDAQ, short-term pivotal resistance is at 12880 and mid-term pivotal resistance is at 13720. To the downside, there is no short-term pivotal support as there is mostly open air below down to 11492. Long-term pivotal support is at 10440.
As you can see by the numbers above, the bears have an easier path to the downside than the bulls to the upside. Given that the traders are likely to be depending on the charts for the next 2 weeks, probabilities do favor the bears. Then again, the traders have not been following/listening to the charts all that much recently, meaning that it is difficult to be comfortable in trading them at this time.
Having said that, the bulls have tried, and tried, and tried for the past 16 days to make something happen to the upside and they have not been able to do it. Common sense suggests, they will try the opposite side this week. This is especially true with the CPI number coming in higher and the Retail Sales number coming in lower than anticipated. It is difficult to "buck" that kind of news.
OIL bulls were unable to break the pattern of sideways trading that is now in its 12th week. The sideways trading pattern, based on weekly closes, has been between $71 and $81 since the last week of November and at this time, it looks like it will continue for another few weeks. Oil did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.06 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support at 72.64 that should hold up unless the momentum and recent bearish news is strong enough to break it. If that support level holds up, a rally back up to the $79-$80 level will likely be seen. If that support does not hold up, then a visit to the $70 level will likely be seen. At this time and because there are very few possible catalysts scheduled to be released over the next 2 weeks, the probabilities do not favor any big moves being made in either direction. Nonetheless, if by any chance Oil gets below 70.00 or above 81.50, a $4-$5 move would likely be seen in whatever direction is broken.
DOLLAR continued its recovery, having made a new 5-week high, closing green, and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is established intraweek resistance at 105.00, meaning that the bulls will be running into a resistance level where selling interest will be found. With no economic reports of consequence due out for another 2 weeks and most everything trading sideways, the probabilities do favor this resistance holding up. This is especially true given that the Dollar made a new 9-month intraweek low a few weeks ago and there have been no positively catalytic changes of fundamentals coming out, meaning that a retest of that level is a high probability, before any further concerted buying interest is seen. On a daily closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 105.04 and pivotal support is found at 101.22. On a short-term basis, there is support at 103.22, which if broken would mean that the retest of the recent lows has begun. It is likely that for this week, the Dollar will trade between 105.00 and 103.49, with the former being seen early in the week and the latter late in the week.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions as of this writing but the inflation report on Tuesday is likely to be decisive for the short-term, meaning that I will likely have a couple of mentions on Tuesday or Wednesday morning.
|
Updates
|
| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
|
CAT generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 250.86 will be seen this week. The stock has been resilient since the beginning of the year but there is one good chart reason for that resilience and that is the fact that on the weekly chart, no retest of the all-time high at 266.04 has yet occurred. A successful retest of the high has occurred on the daily chart but on a weekly basis, each week has shown a lower high than the previous week, meaning no retest has occurred. A rally this week above last week's high would be considered a successful retest if the following week, the recent 7% down move from the high resumes. On the daily chart, there is short-term pivotal resistance at 252.14. If that level is broken, there is open air above to the gap area at 257.39. To the downside, the recent intraweek low at 241.65 is support, which if broken would further weaken the chart. Nonetheless, what the bears need/require to generate new sell interest, is a daily close below 232.52. Such a close would be a clear sign that the bulls have lost the edge. DOW generated a second red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 57.74 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a sell signal as well as a failure signal on the daily closing chart that does give the bears a short-term edge for a drop down to at least the $56 level. Nonetheless, the bulls still remain with the edge on the weekly and longer term chart as no negative signals have been given there as yet. As stated several times over the past few weeks, consideration can be given to covering the shorts as the stock nears the $56 level, given that at this time and present fundamental conditions, it will be difficult for the bears to get more downside than that. Then again, if the indexes begin to break down, that could easily change. ENG continued to show weakness, having generated another red weekly close (3rd in a row) and once again closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .74 is likely to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at .71 but on a weekly closing basis, the .74 level is pivotal support. On a potential positive note for the bulls, the red weekly close was only by $.014 cents and that suggests that the bears are running out of ammunition. There has been no new news coming out and this recent (last 3 weeks) 23% drop down in price has been basically technical in nature due to the stock getting up close to the 200-day MA, currently at 1.11, 3 weeks ago and not being able to punch through. The company reports earnings in 3 weeks and I do believe the stock will start to recover this week and move back to the .93 level during this period of time. The earnings report is likely to be catalytic. PLNHF continued higher as the stock generated another green weekly close (the 3rd in a row). The bulls were able to get up to the short-term pivotal resistance level at 1.00 but were not able to punch-through. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the high of the week (closed at .98) and further upside above last week's high at 1.02 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.05. A break of that level would offer a short-term objective of 1.40. Nonetheless, there is further weekly close resistance from a previous low weekly close at 1.11, which also needs to be broken for the 1.40 level to become truly viable. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is now found at .85. The stock has now built a decent bottom support formation that favors a breakout, especially given that the fundamental picture of this company continues to be strongly supportive. SHOP generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 42.72 is expected to be seen this week. The company reported lower than expected earnings and proceeded to drop down 20% in price. A gap down did occur on the daily chart that should be followed by another gap in the immediate future, if and when the earnings report is a sign of further downside occurring. As it is now and using both the daily and weekly closing chart, Friday's close at 43.61 is still above the previous weekly close breakout at 43.06 and above the previous daily close breakout at 43.40, meaning that the report may not be so negative as to immediately generate further downside of consequence. There is a gap below at 40.48 that should be closed on an intraweek basis, but if the bears are unable to generate a confirmed daily close below 43.40 this week, consideration should be given to taking profits. If a failure signal is given, the downside objective would then be the 200-day MA, currently at 36.13. With the entire market in a confused state and the bears unable to generate a failure signal against the bulls, if the stock does get down to the gap below this week, serious consideration should be to taking profits on the trade. TXT received good news this week, in the form of a contract signing with the U.S. Navy for one of their products. Off of the news, the stock was able to generate a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 75.22 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 76.11, which if broken, would suggest further upside is to come. A stop loss at 76.35 should be in place this week. On the opposite side of the coin, if the bulls are unable to break above 76.11 and then head below this coming week's low the following week, a required/needed successful retest of the recent high will have occurred, and that would bring in new selling interest. As such, the next two weeks are chart pivotal for the stock. There is presently pivotal intraweek support at 73.04, which if broken, would likely offer a downside objective of $68. With the news being in the picture this week, it is difficult to evaluate what will happen. VET continued lower and made a new 58-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.30 will be seen this week. During its entire trading life (118 months), the stock has traded above the $13 level for a total of 96 months. I mention the $13 level because the stock never traded below that level until February of 2020, which is when the Covid-19 pandemic began to occur. The stock had dropped down to 13.01 on October 2019 and stayed above that level until February. During that time, a rally back up to the 16.83 level did occur. There has been no new news on the company since January when RBC announced that they had cut their price objective from $32 to $29, suggesting that this move down is more technical than fundamental in nature. As such, the probabilities do favor this area holding up and a rally back up to the $17 level occurring over the same period of time (3 months). Chart suggests that more than $17 could be seen as the resistance of note found at this time is up at $20. One additional support item is that the 200-week MA is currently at 12.75, and that line should not be broken without some tangible new negative occurring. As such, this stock is a buy this week around the 13.00 level and using a mental stop loss at 12.65. With a $17.00 objective (minimum), the risk per share is around $.35 cents for a profit potential of $4. That is about an 11-1 risk/reward ratio. VNET took a big fall this past week, having dropped from a high of 6.46 to 4.07 (37% drop) on this week alone. I have not found any piece of news as to why it happened but common sense would point to some problems popping up in the proposed merger at $8. The stock did get down to the pivotal intraweek support at 4.07 and bounced up from there to close on Friday at 4.53. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, which would normally suggest further downside below 4.07 will be seen but given the lack of news and the fall not being chart-oriented, it is possible that an inside week occur. This fall does erase/negate all the gains made for the 17-week and does suggest that the reasons for holding on to the stock have mostly gone away. If the 4.07 level does not break, the chart does suggest that a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 5.47, will likely occur. I am averaged long at 5.32 and if that happens, I will likely get out and scratch the trade with a little gain or very little loss. X generated a reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing near the low of the week. The stock still generated a green weekly close but then only barely (28.02 vs previous week's close at 27.95) The stock did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.51 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 27.14, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to the $25 area. In looking at the daily closing chart, a confirmed daily close below 27.20 would suggest that the 200-day MA, currently at 23.41, would be the target. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 30.42. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 36.43 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and with all those negatives mentioned above, the stock closed only $.38 cents below a short-term pivotal resistance level at 37.76 (previous high weekly close that when broken took the stock up to $53). Given that the fundamental picture is still positive for the company, it is possible (perhaps even likely) that the stock will turn around this week and close green next Friday. As it is, the stock made the low of the week on Wednesday and the bears were unable to make any new lows thereafter. It should also be mentioned that the 200-day MA, is currently at 36.61 and that line did not get broken on a daily closing basis at any time this week. The stock did have a low daily close for the week at 37.12 and if the bulls are able to generate a daily close above 40.39 on any day this week, that will mean the MA will have been successfully tested. The magnet to the downside that has been giving the bears ammunition is the open gap down at 33.94. If that gap does not get closed and a new buy signal is given (close above 40.39), it will be a "strongly bullish" event for the stock.
|
1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.85. 2) X - Shorted at 28.87. Stop loss now at 31.44. Stock closed on Friday at 27.95. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .792. 4) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.31. 5) SHOP Shorted at 49.72. Stop loss now at 51.82. Stock closed on Friday at 48.30. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 247.67. 7) LI - Liquidated at 27.03. Loss on the trade of $1960 per 100 shares (4 mentions). 8) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.82. 9) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.78 10) TXT - Averaged short at 70.77 (2 mentons). Stop loss now at 75.35. Stock closed on Friday at 73.78. 11) PLNHF - Purchased at .90. Averaged long at 1.91 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .91.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|