Issue #800
February 12, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Wild, Wild Week. Bulls win but could be an empty win! Sideways Market Likely Result.
DOW Friday closing price - 33869
The indexes generated what can be considered an uneventful week given that across the board, every single index had an inside week (lower highs and higher lows than the previous week). That, in and of itself, would generally mean that neither the bulls nor the bears accomplished anything of note. Nonetheless, in several ways it was not an uneventful week as there were some signs given that could be of consequence, as far as what the traders are thinking about what could happen over the next few weeks. To begin with, all indexes generated a red weekly close and in the case of the SPX and the NASDAQ, the red weekly closes meant that previously established weekly close resistance levels were confirmed as being valid indicators of pivotal areas of resistance. This action means that the "momentum-to-the-upside" has ended and now the bulls have to "prove" through tangible economic reports that further upside is possible.
In addition to the above, the dichotomy between the indexes returned in the opposite direction of what has been seen recently and it was across the board and not just between the DOW and the NASDAQ. This past week, the DOW dropped .02%, the SPX dropped 1%, the NASDAQ dropped 2.6% and the RUT dropped 3.4%. The fact that the DOW underperformed the other indexes to the downside, means that the traders opted for "safety" (rather than speculation) and that also means they have become fearful that the probabilities are now favoring the downside and not the upside, from here on and for the next few weeks at least. Simply stated, the onus is now on the shoulders of the bulls to prove that further upside can occur.
All indexes (except the DOW) generated a sell signal on the daily closing chart. The signal given is for the short-term for now (until more economic news comes out) but it does give some clear downside objectives for the SPX and the NASDAQ due to their recent breakout (2-weeks ago) above the 200-day MA. Generally speaking and without any new news coming out, such breakouts are retested once a possible rally top has been found. In the case of the SPX, that line is at 3944 and in the NAZ that line is at 11934. On a daily closing basis, the SPX does have support at 4080 but no such support is found in the NASDAQ. At this time and if the Inflation report on Tuesday comes out as expected, those lines are presently magnets.
To the upside and in all indexes, any break above the recent intraweek highs (DOW at 34342, SPX at 4195, NAZ at 12880, and RUT at 2007) would be a strong bullish sign.
The CPI report on Tuesday morning is likely to be a catalyst given that inflation has been a key issue during the past 8 months and there are no other important/catalytic economic reports for the rest of the month. Expectations are for the base report to come out at .5% and the core at .4%. Last month's figures were -.1% and .3%. As such, the expectations are for the report to show that inflation continues high (not continuing to go lower). That, to begin with, is a negative to the market. Off of that report, the traders are likely to decide what is to happen to the indexes for at least the next 3 weeks.
OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek low but then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.33 will be seen this week. The positive reversal as well as having held above the 70.11 low seen in December has strongly increased the chances of Oil no longer being in a downtrend and now being in a sideways trend. Any break above the short-term pivotal resistance at 83.33 would give an objective of 85.42 and would suggest Oil will trade between $75 and $85 for the near term future. If the bulls are unable to get above 83.33, it would suggest the trading range would be $70-$80 for the same period of time. Any break above 85.42 or below 70.11 would mean further upside or downside of about $5 would be seen. At this time, the bulls have a slight edge.
DOLLAR continued its recovery, having made a new 4-week high, closing green, and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.96 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until the 105.00 level is reached. Probabilities do favor a continuing rally to that price. Nonetheless, the recent low at 100.82 does require a successful retest of it, if the bulls are to aspire to more upside than above 105.00, meaning that if 105.00 is reached, a drop back down to around the $101 level is likely to be seen.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions as of this writing but the inflation report on Tuesday is likely to be decisive for the short-term, meaning that I will likely have a couple of mentions on Tuesday or Wednesday morning.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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CAT generated an uneventful inside week but did close red (by $.09 cents), meaning that the sell signal given the previous week and on the weekly closing chart, was confirmed. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 244.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the confirmation of the sell signal simply suggests that the high for the rally may have been found for the next few weeks and not suggest that a correction of consequence might have started. The bears need a confirmed daily close below 244.79 and/or a weekly close below 244.02 to generate a failure signal that would bring in new selling interest. Based on the action the past 10 days, short-term pivotal resistance is at 252.14 and pivotal support is at 241.80. Whichever gets broken first is likely to see about a $7 move in that direction. DOW generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-month intraweek high and then closing red. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning there is an equal chance of going above last week's high at 60.88 as going below last week's low at 58.71. The red weekly close does suggest that the established weekly close resistance between 60.01 and 60.06 has held up. Unfortunately, the red close was only by $.18 cents (close the previous week was 60.00), meaning that it was not a convincing retest of that level. The gap up at 61.76 remains unclosed and closure of the gap would favor the bears. It is likely that the inflation report on Tuesday will generate movement in one direction or the other. Any daily close below 58.68 or above 60.51 would likely be indicative of direction. ENG generated a red weekly close below a short-term pivotal weekly close support at .8665, having closed on Friday at .792. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .78 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is still important weekly close support at .78 and at the multi-year low at .74 (made just 5 week's ago). On a daily closing basis, the area between .77 and .80 is pivotal, meaning that any daily close below .77 would further weaken the chart and any daily close above .80 would give the bulls some new ammunition. I personally believe there is no reason for further downside, fundamentally or chart-wise. PLNHF generated a totally uneventful inside week with a very small $.07 trading range for the week. The stock did generate a green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .921 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, that was the same scenario last week and nothing happened. This stock has been in a clear downtrend for the past 24 months from a high of 8.67. The stock has gone down mostly because the Cannabis industry has been under strong sell pressure for this period of time. Nonetheless, the company itself has some very positive fundamentals and it is anticipated that the Cannabis industry is going to begin to recover in 2023, meaning that there is no better time to buy this stock (or add to it) than at this price. The previous week's trading range (.97 and .81) are now short-term pivotal, as a break of either is likely to generate about a $.17 move in which ever direction is broken. Probabilities do favor the bulls. SHOP generated a somewhat uneventful intraweek inside week but the red close and near the low of the week does give some eventuality to the action. To begin with, the bulls failed to follow through to the upside even though the stock did close near the high of the week the previous week. Secondly, the red close was near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.33 will be seen this week. The $47 level is psychological support ($50 demilitarized zone - $47-$53) and if the stock breaks below the previous week's low at 47.05, there is open air below to the $43 level. Even that support level is considered minor given that it is on a daily closing basis and it is from a previous daily closing high. On an intraweek basis, there is no support until 41.12 level is reached and that is also a minor support. The 200-day MA, currently at 36.76 is a potential magnet. To the upside, there is no intraweek resistance until 54.67 is reached. On a daily closing basis though, resistance is found at 51.26. Probabilities do favor the bears. TXT generated an inside week that would normally be considered uneventful but due to the recent spike up rally, it does suggest it was eventful. To begin with, a double high on the intraweek chart is now in place at 75.97/76.11, meaning it has become stronger resistance as well as pivotal. Secondly, the red close at 73.98 does mean that the established and short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at 75.21 has now been tested successfully. In addition, the stock made a new 7-day intraweek low, meaning the momentum to the upside has ended. On an intraweek basis, there is no support below until minor support at 70.94 is reached. On a daily closing basis, there is some support at 73.57 (from a previous high daily close) but then below that, there is no support until 70.60 is reached. The stock did generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart and to negate that sell signal, the bulls require a daily close above 75.03. Overall, the chart suggests the upside is done and the question then becomes, "how much downside can be seen?". VET generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 55-week intraweek low but then closing green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.86 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did get down to 13.98 and given that there is established weekly close support between 13.92 and 14.29 and the stock closed the previous week at 14.18, the green weekly close means that support has now been tested successfully. In addition, Oil had a positive week and that helped as well. On a daily closing basis, there is some minor resistance at 14.78 and with the stock closing at 14.77 on Friday, a green daily close on Monday would give the bulls a tiny bit of additional ammunition. Above that level, there is no pivotal resistance until 16.16 is reached. A break of that resistance opens the door for a rally to the $18 level. The stock did generate a small buy signal on the daily chart on Friday and it is important that the bulls close green again on Monday, to give that buy signal some credence. Any break below 13.98 would open to the door for a drop down to the next level of intraweek support at 13.44 and also open the door for a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 12.82. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. VNET continues to trade uneventfully within the 5.88-6.83 area. Any break above or below that area will likely generate a mini breakout or mini breakdown and change the chart for the short-term. Nonetheless, for now, the bulls have the edge, as they have broken previous resistance areas over the past couple of months. Any daily close above 7.94 would open the door for a rally to the $10 level. Any daily close below 5.48 would negate all the recent gains and turn the stock negative. X negated all the gains for the past 4 weeks, as well as negating the breakout rally that occurred the previous week. The stock on Friday did close below the breakout weekly close at 28.98, meaning the breakout was negated and also making the breakout spike intraweek high at 31.34 into a successful and indicative successful retest of the 4-year high at 39.50, which was made in March of last year. This move does open the door for a drop all the way down to the $20-$22 level over the next 8-12 weeks. On a short-term basis, resistance will now be found at 28.86 and support at 25.25.25. If the downside is seen first and a confirmed daily close below 27.20 occurs, resistance would then be found at 27.64. The chart now favors the bears with the only question now being how much of this drop seen this week can be recovered before further downside occurs. Overall and using the intraweek chart, the 30.57 level has become strong and pivotal resistance. ZLAB continued lower, having made a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 36.99. Nonetheless, the stock closed on Friday at 37.85 and there is pivotal weekly close support at 37.76, meaning that if the bulls continue to have the edge, a green weekly close needs to occur next Friday. Probabilities favor that happening. One additional supportive factor for the bulls is that the 200-day MA is currently at 36.69 and that line is likely to be reached this week. The stock broke out above that line the first week of January after the company released the results of a positive cancer study that generated a rally of 38%. As such, a retest of that line was expected to happen but a break of the line is not expected to occur. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 40.28. A break of that level is likely to bring in new buying interest. A closure of the news gap below at 33.94 would be a decent negative. Good week to buy extra shares.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.04. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .004. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0169. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.85. 5) X - Shorted at 28.87. Stop loss now at 31.44. Stock closed on Friday at 27.95. 6) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .792. 7) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.31. 8) SHOP Shorted at 53.97. Stop loss at 54.59. Stock closed on Friday at 48.30. 9) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 247.67. 10) PLNHF - Purchased at .90. Averaged long at 1.91 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .91. 11) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.82. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.78. 13) X - Shorted at 28.87. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.95
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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