Issue #799
February 5, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Wild, Wild Week. Bulls win but could be an empty win! Sideways Market Likely Result.
DOW Friday closing price - 33926
The indexes have continued to rise during the past 3 weeks as the earnings quarter was occurring. Nonetheless, the important reports for the quarter are now out and earnings are not likely to continue to have any effect on the market. In addition, all but one (CPI on Feb. 14) of the important economic reports for the month are also out, meaning that there are no catalysts for movement for the next 8-trading days. As such, it is likely that "at this time" the traders will be keying on the charts for direction.
The one thing that was bringing a fair amount of confusion to the market was the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ which was in favor of the DOW for most of last year and turned in favor of the NAZ about 6 weeks ago. The dichotomy started to reverse 6 weeks ago, with the NASDAQ now having moved up in price 13% and the DOW moving up only 2.3% during this period of time. Nonetheless, the earnings reports over this 6-week period-of-time have not supported the recent dichotomy given that both the "bread and butter stocks and the Tech stocks" have "generally" shown less than expected earnings to a similar degree. This was confirmed this past week with AMZN and GOOGL both reporting lower than anticipated earnings, much like CAT and JPM did a couple of weeks ago. With earnings coming in lower and the economic reports not coming in substantially better-than-expected, the recent appreciation in price seems to be overdone.
As it is, both the SPX and the NASDAQ reached (or got close to) short-term pivotal levels of resistance that without some tangible and positive news, are unlikely to break. In the SPX that level is/was 4177 (4158 on a weekly closing basis) and in the NASDAQ that level is/was12897 (12681 on a weekly closing basis). The SPX did get up to 4195 this past week but closed at 4136, and the NAZ got up to 12880 and closed at 12573. All indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading ranges, meaning that expectations are for higher prices above last week's highs this week. Nonetheless, this week could be one of those rare exceptions where follow through is not seen, given the short-term importance of these levels and the negative reaction on Friday due to the lower earnings of AMZN and GOOGL as well as the surprising better than expected Jobs report. These fundamental factors do not support the recovery continuing and it will make it difficult for the Fed to start considering the stoppage (or even the start of lowering) of interest rates.
As it is, the indexes all closed near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting further downside below Friday's lows (DOW at 33813, SPX at 4123 and NAZ at 12520) will be seen on Monday. If the DOW gets below 33581, it will trigger a short-term sell signal. The SPX has no established support below until 4015 is reached, and the NASDAQ has an open gap at 12458 and no established support below until the 12,000 level is reached. As such, the bears have more chart reasons for the indexes to go lower than the bulls to go higher. In addition, the fundamental reports that came out this week also give the bears the edge.
All the indexes are in overbought territory and specially the SPX and the NASDAQ when looking at the daily chart RSI. As such and with no economic or earnings reports of consequence due out this week, it does suggest the bears have the upper hand, for now.
As far as pivotal levels of support and resistance on a midterm basis and using the daily closing chart, here is what to look for: In the DOW, pivotal daily close resistance is at 34302 and pivotal daily close support is at 33044. In the SPX those levels at 4199 and 4080 and in the NASDAQ, those levels are at 12892 and at 12044. If any of those levels get broken, it will give a clear edge to the bulls or bears.
Overall and considering the earnings and economic reports that have come out the last 3 weeks, considering the seasonal tendency of the market for February (normally an unremarkable month), and considering the overbought condition of the market, it does seem the bears will have the edge for the next few weeks.
OIL had a very disappointing week that does put into question the recent statements from Oil analysts that suggested that a decent rally was about to begin. Oil did generate a failure signal to the recent mini breakout that occurred 2 weeks ago but the bears were unable to confirm that the downtrend has re-started, given that no short-term support levels were broken, at least not broken convincingly. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 70.11 and at 72.47 and last week's low was 73.11. On a daily closing basis, there was some short-term indicative support at 73.38 and Oil did close on Friday at 73,20, meaning a break did occur but not a convincing one. On a weekly closing basis, the same support was at 73.69 and it was broken, but again, not convincingly. There is pivotal daily "and" weekly close support at 71.50, which if broken would suggest the $65-$66 level will be visited. Overall though, the chart left open all 3 possibilities (more upside, sideways trading, and further downside), though the upside possibilities were somewhat damaged by the closes on Friday, meaning that it is the least possible of the three at this time. There is much evidence on the chart that the possibility of Oil trading sideways between $70 and $80 for the next 3-6 weeks (on an intraweek basis) is decent. Nonetheless, any confirmed weekly close below 71.50 would generate a downside target of $65-$66, which if reached will be difficult for the bears to break without some tangible negative news coming out (not expected). The chart is not clear at this time but given where Oil closed on Friday, it seems fair to say that by this coming Friday, things will be much clearer. Evidently a green weekly close next Friday would shift the probabilities to option 2 (a sideways market) is in place. Given that the same overall situation is being seen in Gold and in the index market, sideways is where I lean to.
DOLLAR generated a positive "key" reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek low and then closing above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.01 will be seen this week. It is important to note that "all" intraweek support levels since 2003 (20-years) were broken and as such, the positive reversal was fundamentally based (not chart-based) and therefore more tangible and believable. The "key" positive reversal does strongly suggest that unless some clear negative fundamental piece of news comes out, the bottom to this move down has been found. By the same token, there is intraweek resistance at 103.82 (minor), at 105.00 (minor to decent), and at 105.63, which is pivotal. This does suggest that this reversal simply puts the Dollar into a sideways phase in which the trading range is likely to be $101 to $105 for the next 2-4 months or until some new fundamental game-changing piece of news comes out. This outlook is further supported by the Indexes, Oil, and Gold charts.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I believe being short at this time is likely to be the way to go but given last week's volatile action and unclear signals given, I cannot in good faith give any short mentions at this time. Once I see how the market is acting this week, I may give some short mentions in the message board.
Nonetheless and upon evaluating held stocks this weekend, there is a very real possibility that some small cap stocks that have been strongly hit over the past year or two, are ready to recover. It does make sense that under these unclear conditions, traders and investors step up to buy depressed stocks. As such, I do have 2 buy mentions this week in ENG and PLNHF. Please check out the Held Stocks comment section for details on desired entry points, stop loss points and objectives.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 1/1 Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
NEM (long) $3135 Total Profit for January, per 100 shares and after commissions Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
DOW (short) $7
Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 2/1 CAT (short) $97 CAT (short) $17 TXT (short) $109 SHOP (short) $234 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $464
NONE
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
VNET (long) $21
SNDL (long) $42 ZLAB (long) $6864 ENG (long) $126 BTZI (long) $48 SRUTF (long) $3 Total $7,104 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 2/1
DOW (short) $1728
TXT (short) $416 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
CAT (short) $5092 Total $7,472ont> Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Profit of 4,855
Status of account/portfolio for 2023, as of 1/30
Profit of $4,855 per 100 shares.
CAT generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the most recent low weekly close at 249.71 (closed at 247.76). Nonetheless, the sell signal simply suggests that the high for the rally may have been found for the next few weeks and not suggest that a correction of consequence might have started. The bears did have the opportunity to do that, given that a close below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 244.02 would have generated a failure signal as well. The stock did trade below that level during the week but not on Friday, suggesting that the bulls might be successful in keeping the stock above the previous all-time high and trading sideways between $240 and $260. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 241.80 is expected to be seen this week, meaning that the door is still open for a failure signal to be given. There is no established intraweek support until 231.94 is reached and at this time, getting down to that price seems to be probable. That support is somewhat minor in nature and if broken, then further downside is likely to be seen. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 225.56, which if broken would open the door for the $200 level to be seen. The stock did report earnings this week and they were slightly worse than expected. It did generate a gap down between 261.31 and 257.79 that could end up being a breakaway gap, which would then likely be followed by a runaway gap (if not closed). It is likely that the bulls will attempt to close the gap before further downside is seen, which in turn would suggest the stock is trading sideways. Failure to close the gap would open the door for another gap down to occur, which would be a clear signal that a top to the rally has been created and such an occurance would offer a $25 move down from wherever the runaway gap would occur. The stock did close on Friday slightly in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting the stock will move higher on Monday above Friday's high at 250.95. If that does not happen and Friday's low at 243.13 is broken, it would be a negative omen for the bulls. DOW generated a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 60.72 will be seen this week. The stock is showing this area (from here to 61.76) to be quite pivotal, given that the stock shows a weekly gap down from the 2nd week of June at 61.76, which if closed would negate all the downside seen the past 7 months but if not closed, could be a very negative sign for the rest of the year. With the stock closing at 60.00 on Friday and likely to go above last week's high at 60.72, the probabilities of closure of the gap are high. If by any chance the stock gaps up on Monday (only good for Monday's action), it would mean a huge and highly indicative island formation in favor of the bulls will be created, which if confirmed, would be strongly bullish. If no gap up opening occurs on Monday but the gap is closed that day or any other day this week, then it would mean that the correction low at 42.91 will be confirmed as a major bottom. It is interesting to note that there is quite a bit of confirmed intraweek resistance between 60.65 and 61.17 (from 15 months ago) that is going to hamper the efforts of the bulls. Either way (gap is closed or not closed), there is now clear intraweek support found between $55 and $56 that is not likely to be broken unless something tangibly negative occurs. Closure of the gap would likely mean further upside to 65.86 would be seen. ENG negated the small gains made the previous week, having given back all of the 20% gain generated the previous week. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the stock had made a new 2-year intraweek and weekly closing low 5 weeks ago and such a low requires a successful retest of it before the bulls being to climb aboard. There is/was important weekly closing support at .865 prior to the new 2-year weekly closing low at .74 and with the stock closing on Friday at .865, if a green weekly close occurs this week, both the previously important weekly close support, as well as the recent low weekly close support will have been tested successfully. As such and if it happens, it will be seen as base-building action. In addition, the fall back from the previous week's rally was not unexpected as the stock got near the 200-day MA, currently at 1.13, with the previous week's high at 1.10. It is unlikely that line will be broken until some fundamental catalyst occurs. The company reports earnings on March 9th (in 5 weeks) and that could be the catalyst needed. The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .84 is expected to be seen. Intraweek support is found at .82 and at .78. The chart suggests that this is a base building process and as such, purchases of the stock could be considered this week between .79 and .83, using a stop loss at .66 and having a realistic upside objective of at least 1.83, to be reached in a time frame of 3-6 months. Such a trade offers a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. PLNHF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .97 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it will mean that a required/needed successful retest of the 3-year intraweek low at .60 will have occurred. Such a successful retest would be confirmed if the stock goes above the recent intraweek high at 1.05. This stock has been in a clear downtrend for the past 24 months from a high of 8.67. The stock has gone down mostly because the Cannabis industry has been under strong sell pressure for this period of time. Nonetheless, the company itself has some very positive fundamentals and it is anticipated that the Cannabis industry is going to begin to recover in 2023, meaning that there is no better time to buy this stock (or add to it) than at this price. I did give this mention 5 weeks ago (when it was trading around .60) and the stock appreciated 70% in price within 2 weeks. If you bought it then, add to it now. If you did not buy it then, this level (around .90) is a good purchase price. Use a stop loss at .56. If this is the bottom (likely) and a recovery phase is to occur, the upside objective is the 200-week MA, currently at 2.96, to be reached in a period of 6-9 months. As such, a purchase around .90 would give a risk factor of about $.34 (per share) and a profit potential of about $2.06 (per share), meaning a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. I will be adding shares this week. TXT generated a new 53-week intraweek high and a new 44-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 76.11 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this area (around $76) has shown itself to be decent intraweek resistance given that in March 2022 it got up to 75.95, in December 2022 it got up to 75.95 and on both of those occasions, the rally stopped and a decent to strong correction occurred. The stock got up to 76.11 last week but it did that on Thursday and Friday it gave up all of Thursday's gains to close on Friday at 74.44. Given the volatility seen last week, especially on Thursday and Friday, as well as the weakness seen on Friday across the board in the index market, there is reason to believe this resistance level could hold up again. I did state that the stop loss should be at 72.44, meaning that the short positions should have been covered. I did not do that given the importance of the economic and earnings reports last week. Nonetheless, with those out of the way, this is a pivotal week for the stock. Any further upside above 76.11 (especially a daily close above 76.01) would be a positive that would require strong consideration for covering of the short positions. On the other side of the coin, any daily close below 73.57 would be reason enough to hold on to the shorts and see what happens thereafter. A daily close below 70.60 would suggest the initial mention's objective could be in play again. There is no valid chart reason at this time to be short but if last week's action gets negated this week, the short positions could still generate a profit. VET generated a new 54-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 14.18 will be seen this week. The chart strongly suggests that the 200-week MA, currently at 12.89 will be seen. Nonetheless, that is a support line that is not likely to be broken without new negative fundamental news (none expected) and therefore a bounce off of that line is likely to be seen. There is decent and well established (3 previous occasions over the past 4 years) weekly close support between 13.92 and 14.29, meaning that there is a possibility that the stock could get down to the MA line and then generate a positive reversal this week and close green. If that occurs, the $18 level (on a weekly closing basis) would become the upside objective. Intraweek, it is possible the stock could get back as high as $20. VNET generated a totally uneventful week in which no new signals were given. Overall though, the bulls are presently in control given that the 200-day MA was broken to the upside 4-weeks ago and the stock has maintained itself above that line since. Intraweek resistance is found at 6.92, at 7.28, at 7.60 and at 7.94. Any daily close above 7.94 would open the door for a rally to the $10 level. Any daily close below 5.48 would negate all the recent gains and turn the stock negative. X generated a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.34 will be seen. The mention had given a stop loss at 30.67 that was evidently hit last week. Nonetheless and like with TXT, I did not get out as I was waiting to see what the economic and earnings reports would be before making a determination on whether to hold or get out. There is no chart reason at this time to hold on to the shorts, given that the there is no resistance of consequence until the $39 level is reached. Nonetheless, if last week's high at 31.34 is not broken this week, it is possible (maybe even likely) that that the rally will be negated and the original mention remain the same. For that to start to happen, the bears need to generate a daily close below 28.88. A break below 27.25 would generate a new sell signal and give the bears the edge again. The stock closed on Friday at 30.05. ZLAB continued lower, having made a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39.26 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears have not yet accomplished anything, given that no support levels have been broken as this mini correction is occurring. By the same token, the stock is now close to an area of daily and weekly close support that needs to hold, in order for the uptrend to continue. Daily close support is found at 38.71 and weekly close support is at 37.76. In addition, the 200-day MA, is currently at 36.78. None of these should be broken, if and when the fundamental picture remains the same. There is a gap at 33.34 that is a bear target but the gap is viable as it came off of positive fundamental news, meaning it should not be closed. To the upside, pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 44.50. If that level of resistance get broken, this mini correction will likely be over.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.30. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .004. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0175. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.09. 5) X - Shorted at 28.87. Stop loss is at 30.67. Stock closed on Friday at 30.05. 6) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .865. 7) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.21. 8) SHOP Covered sort position at 42.06. Shorted at 39.72. Loss on the trade of $234 per 100 shares. 9) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 247.76. 10) LI - Liquidated positions at 27.03. Loss on the trade of $1961 per 100 shares (4 mentions). 11) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.00. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.29. 13) X - Shorted at 28.87. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.05
14) CAT - Shorted at 256.11. Covered shorts at 257.20. Loss on the trade of $109 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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