Issue #806
March 26, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Fed faced with important decision on Wednesday, which will likely be indicative for the market!

DOW Friday closing price - 32237
SPX Friday closing price - 3970
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 12767
RUT Friday closing price - 1734

The indexes all generated green weekly closes and in the case of the NASDAQ, a new buy signal was given in the weekly closing chart, with the index closing above the 7-month high weekly close at 12573. Nonetheless, the lack of unity in the index market continues, given that the NASDAQ was the only index closing in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that there is no consensus whether this buy signal is meaningful or not. The Fed announcement regarding the interest rate hike was exactly as expected and did not have any effect on the market, meaning that there continues to be a lack of clarity as to what to expect from here on in. The banking problems being seen should have caused more of a down move but the traders somewhat ignored that as they await to see if any further problems arise and to what degree, and how they will be addressed by the Fed. Simply stated, the outlook for this week remains unclear.

It is evident that the NASDAQ continues to be the leader to the upside. As such, I will key on that index for this newsletter. The index has a "mountain" of resistance on the daily closing chart between 12739 and 12892. That area has been daily close resistance on 5 previous occasions and daily close support on 2 other occasions, all over the past 11 months. With the other indexes still showing some negatives, if the bulls can generate a daily close above 12892, it will be a bull statement of some note. A break of that level would offer open air up to the 13500 level. On the opposite side of the coin, any daily close below 12519 would not deflate this week's bull gains and give the bears the edge for a drop down toward the 200-day MA, currently at 11904. This means that with the index closing at 12767 on Friday, daily close resistance is 125 points above and support is 248 points below. With the overall confusion that is being seen, the computers, algorithms and big traders are highly likely to take heed of what happens on the chart.

There are very few economic reports due out this week and none that are considered catalytic. On Tuesday at 10:00am, the Consumer Confidence number is due out and it is expected to be 102. For it to have any effect on the market, it would need to be above 110 or below 90. On Friday, the PCE prices are due out and they are expected to be 5%. Above 15% or below -2% would be catalytic. Neither are likely to come in out of line and affect the market in any way. The following week though, the ISM Index and Jobs reports come out.

This week will be all about the charts with the NASDAQ being the the trigger in any direction. The action though, may rely on whether there is any new information about bank failures.


GOLD continued the recent up draft, having made a new 54-week intraweek and weekly closing high at $2014 and at new 50-week weekly closing at $1880. Gold closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2014 will be seen this week. For the charts, this week is pivotal given that Friday is the monthly close and on that chart, the $1954 level is pivotal resistance. If Gold closes above that level on Friday, and also closes on the same day above the weekly close resistance at $1887,it would put the bulls in control and with a commitment to make a new all-time weekly closing high above $2018, as well as a new intramonth high above $2078. Nonetheles, a failure to do both of those closes, would leave a big question mark in place. With Gold closing on Friday at $1980 and there being no fundamental news due out this week that would offer the bears ammunition, the probabilities favor the bulls in a noteworthy way. The only potential weakness being seen is that Gold stocks are not following suit. AU is still 42% below its all-time high and NEM is still 44% below its all-time high and that fact continues to create doubt in the minds of the traders, especially given that Gold is only 4.8% below its all-time high. To the downside, any daily close below $1941 would weaken the chart and any weekly close below $1923 would generate a new sell signal. Gold does show a double top on the intraweek chart at $2078, which remains a major resistance level. It seems likely that the bulls will generate an attempt to get up to that level this week.

OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-month intraweek and weekly closing low and then closing green in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.30 will be seen this week. The green weekly close made the previous week's close at 66.76 into a successful retest of the important and pivotal weekly close resistance at 66.26. Oil did generate a red day on Friday, in which it went below Thursday's low and then closed near the high of the day, meaning that if on Monday it goes above Friday's high at 70.38, a successful retest of the previous intraweek low at 64.12 will have occurred. Such action would give the bulls added ammunition to take Oil higher. There is daily and weekly close resistance at 71.50 but on an intraweek basis there is no resistance until 76.96 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, there is quite a bit of decent resistance between 74.36 and 75.05, which would be the objective, if and when the bulls can close above 71.50. On an intraweek basis, the 64.12 level is now pivotal support. By the same token, any weekly close below 66.26 would weaken the chart substantially. In looking at the monthly closing chart, there are 3 levels of importance at 74.15, at 68.50 and at 66.18. A close below the former (likely) will take any short-term ammunition away from the bulls, a close below the middle one would weaken the chart, and a close below the latter would be a breakdown. Probabilities do favor the bulls.

DOLLAR made a new 7-week intraweek low but then closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 103.96 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low at 101.92 will be seen as the needed/required retest of the 50-week low at 100.82, which was made 8 weeks ago. On a daily closing basis, there is short-term pivotal resistance at 103.60. If the bulls can generate a close above that level, the 104.38/104.56 level will become the next target. At this time, the chart does not suggest that there will be any new breakdowns or breakouts occurring, meaning that a $102 to $105 trading range is likely to be seen for the next 4-8 weeks.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week as the oulook for the week is totally unclear (on either direction). In addition, there ware 4 new shorts added last week (all mentions given on the message board) and 1 purchase, mentioned in last week's newsletter, that were done. As such, the portfolio is presently almost full and new trades should only be done if they offer a high probability rating.

Nonetheless and like last week, if there is any movement this week that is meaningful and that offers a good risk/reward ratio, desired entry point, and dependable stop loss point, I will mention it on the message board.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
BABA generated a spike-up-type rally this week and closed on near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 88.38 will be seen this week. The green close makes the previous week's weekly close at 81.67 into a successful retest of the breakout-from-the-downtrend area at 80.48. There is a fair amount of daily close resistance around the $90 level and at the 200-day MA, which is currently at 92.73. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 94.17 and a bit stronger up at the $100 level. Any daily close below 81.00 would now weaken the chart and give back control to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AMRX made yet another new all-time intraweek low at 1.28 and a new all-time weekly closing low at 1.33. Nonetheless, it was somewhat evident that that the bears are running out of ammunition as the downtrend slowed down. The trading range was about the same as the previous week with the stock coming within $.02 cents of the previous week's high and only breaking the previous week's low by $.03 cents. The stock did close in near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.28 is expected to be seen this week, but having had 5 red weeks in a row (first time in 10 months) and this off of a positive earnings report, the probabilities favor a positive reversal week this week. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 1.53, which if broken would suggest a rally to 1.96 would then be seen.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new a 3-year intraweek low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .5619 will be seen this week. The stock got down to the .47 level last week and the .46-.48 level is considered strong and pivotal support as those two intraweek lows have been the lows seen the past 10 years. It is difficult to imagine the stock heading lower from here as the book value of the stock is $.84 cents. There is absolutely no resistance (open air) above until the .73 level is reached. As such, the probabilities are high that level will be seen this week or at the latest the following week. Any drop below .46 would further weaken the chart.

IR generated an up week and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 56.91 than below last week's low at 52.73. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to accomplish anything as there is established intraweek high resistance between 56.71 and 57.77 and weekly close resistance at 55.31 and the stock closed on Friday at 55.05. Any daily close above 56.38 will give the bulls some new ammunition, while a daily close below 53.38 will do the exact opposite. Overall, the stock is in a short-term downtrend that suggests the 200-day MA, currently at 50.73, will be seen before the bulls are able to generate any kind of a recovery of any consequence.

PLNHF generated an inside week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .7525 will be seen this week. The stock has now seen 5 red weekly closes in a row but the amount of down movement has been minimal in nature as those 5 red weekly closes have been at .88, .86, .84, .82 and Friday's close at .78. With the stock having seen a low at .60 and a high at 1.05 just 10-13 weeks ago, it is evident that the traders are not interested in either direction at this time and are awaiting news before making any decisions.

RBLX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red but very slightly ($.12 cents) in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 45.49 than below last week's low at 41.11. Nonetheless, the stock remains below a well-established (3 occasions) intraweek resistance level between 46.05 and 47.67 that has stopped all rallies since August of last year. The stock continues to be in a positive short-term uptrend since February when a positive earnings report came out and the 200-day MA, currently at 37.54, was broken. Since then, the stock has stayed above the line. The line has been tested successful on one occasion but does remain a magnet as long as the 47.67 level does not get broken. Last week's low at 41.11 is now pivotal as a break of that level will likely cause the stock to test the line once again. A break above last week's high at 45.49 will be a small positive that would likely bring about a rally up to 47.67. From that point of view, this week is likely to be pivotal.

SHOP generated a new 5 week intraweek and weekly closing high but did close very slightly (by $.07 cents) in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 42.78 than above last week's high at 47.32. If the stock goes above 47.32, there is no established resistance above until the $50 level is reached. There is an open gap up at 50.22 that will become a magnet if last week's high is broken. To the downside, last week's low at 42.78 is also a short-term catalyst, which if broken would likely make the 200-day MA, currently at 36.38, an objective.

TXT generated a green week, which did cause the recent downtrend to pause. Nonetheless, the stock closed very slightly ($.05 cents) in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 66.11 than above last week's high at 69.46. The chart is leaning to the downside but the 200-day MA, currently at 66.91 has held recently, meaning that this coming week could be short-term pivotal. A daily close above 68.70 will generate a short-term buy signal on the daily closing chart, and a daily close above 69.28 will generate a failure signal against the bears and open the door for a rally up to the $73 level. A daily close below 66.16 will open the door for a drop down to the $62 level.

VET generated a green week but it was an uneventful inside week and therefore not all that indicative. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.04 will be seen this week. The stock has been trading slightly below the 200-day MA, currently at 12.58, for the last 2 weeks, and as such, the bears do have the edge. Nonetheless, the line has not been broken convincingly, meaning that every single week is important until something tangible (to the upside or the downside) occurs. For this week, the recent low at 11.93 and last week's high at 13.34 are pivotal. A break of either will cause a statement of weakness to occur if to the downside, while a close above 13.34 will likely generate some recovery to begin.

ZLAB did not follow through to the upside (as was expected) and did make a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed very slightly (by $.13 cents) in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 30.14 than above last week's high at 33.80. On a positive note, the stock has traded in a very narrow trading range of $5.25 for the past 9-trading days and the last time it did that back in December, the stock generated a breakout. The $30 level is decent and important support that the bears have been unable to break even though the stock has been below $31 on 8 of the last 9 days. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, meaning that the first course of business for the week should be to the upside. Pivotal resistance is found at 33.80. Intraweek support is at 28.17.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.70.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .55.

3) SHOP Shorted at 45.97. Stop loss at 47.42. Stock closed on Friday at 44.98.

4) RBLX - Shorted at 43.72. Stop loss at 45.59. Stock closed on Friday at 43.43.

5) AMRX - Averaged long at 2.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.33 on Friday.

6) IR - Shorted at 56.78. Stop loss at 57.01. Stock closed on Friday at 55.05.

7) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.38.

8) TXT - Shorted at 68.96. Stop loss at 69.55. Stock closed on Friday at 67.74.

9) BABA - Purchased at 79.83. Stop loss at 79.38. Stock closed on Friday at 86.90.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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