Issue #804
March 12, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears Gain the Edge. Fundamental Outlook Change with Bank Failure.
DOW Friday closing price - 31909
The indexes took a big fall this past week with the DOW and the SPX dropping about 4.5%, the NASDAQ dropping about 4% and the RUT being the biggest loser with a drop of about 9% in value. The last 4 times such a drop occurred, it was followed by at least 1 (and up to 4) other weeks closing red. The RUT led the way down and that is also quite bearish overall as it indicates weakness even among the stocks that are still undervalued, meaning that the traders are looking at an extended drop in price and not a 1-2 week abnormality.
One of the fundamental factors that led to the drop (and the drop being indicative of a recession beginning to show its ugly face) is that a big bank (Silicone Valley Bank - SVB) collapsed this week. The SVB collapse is the biggest since the 2008 recession and the 2nd biggest of all time. Such a collapse does not only affect all the big Tech companies involved with the bank but is also a sign that other banks may be in the same trouble. This scenario would then lead to the Fed needing to lower interest rates and inflation not being addressed properly or in a way that could be controlled. On both accounts, this is a negative to the market. On top of all that, the Jobs report on Friday showed that the economy is not regressing at the rate the Fed would like to see, meaning that the Fed is forced (by the mandates that they personally assumed) to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. Putting both of these factors together, means that things may be getting out of control of what the Fed can do to address inflation and at the same time address a possible recession.
The drops seen this past week did generate chart damage as well. All of the indexes generated a classic negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's lows. In addition, the DOW and the SPX closed below the 200-day MA's and that is a sign that officially the midterm uptrend is over. The DOW generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart and also made a new 18-week low, which opens the door for a drop all the way down to the 200-week MA, currently at 30664. The chart shows no established weekly close support until 29888 is reached, meaning there is open air below. The NASDAQ generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, also meaning that the midterm uptrend is officially over. Next established weekly close support is now found at 11265. The SPX generated a new sell signal on the daily chart and shows no support below until 3788 is reached.
Simply stated, the action this past week was clearly indicative and especially considering that nothing like this has been seen for the past 3 months.
The inflation report (CPI) is due out Tuesday morning and it is a catalytic report, especially now with the bank collapse seen this week. Expectations are for a number like the one seen last month at .5% (expectations are for .4%). If it comes out at that number or higher, it will be a negative catalyst for the market. If it comes in .3% or lower, it could help the market. The last 6 numbers have been .5%, .1%, .2%, .5%, .4% and .2%.
As far as what would help the bulls this week? In the DOW, a confirmed close above the 200-day MA, currently at 32392, as well as a confirmed close above 32696 (previous low daily close, which if broken would generate a failure signal against the bears). In the SPX, a confirmed close above the 200-day MA, currently at 3940, as well as a confirmed close above the previous low daily close at 3950. In the NASDAQ, a confirmed close above the 200-day MA, currently at 11903, as well as a confirmed close above the previous low daily close at 11938. All of these do need to be confirmed (2 days in a row), meaning that Monday's action is not all that important, especially since Tuesday the CPI report comes out.
The fundamental picture has changed with the Bank collapse seen and the charts do suggest that the bears now have a clear edge and that the onus is on the shoulders of the bulls. If this is all confirmed on Tuesday, the big question will then be "how far down will the indexes go?". Will last October lows get broken? I did take a look at the monthly charts today and I have to say that those charts do favor the bears. If that does occur, the first objective would be the 3245 level in the SPX (626 points below Friday's close).
OIL, based on the weekly closing chart, did absolutely nothing of consequence this past week. It remains in the middle of a sideways trading range (based on weekly closes) between 81.64 and 71.50 and it even stayed between a smaller trading range seen the past 4 weeks, between 79.65 and 76.34 (closed on Friday at 76.68). Oil did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 74.77 is expected to be seen this week. Any daily close this week below 73.95 or above 80.64 will give some new ammunition to the bulls or bears, depending on which gets broken. The chart is totally indecisive at this time. By the same token and with the rest of the market having a pivotal week, it would not be surprising to see something get decided in Oil this week.
DOLLAR generated another green weekly close but did get up and slightly above the intraweek resistance at 105.79 with a high at 105.88 and then reversing to close in the lower half of the week's trading range (closed at 104.64), suggesting further downside below last week's low at 104.04 will be seen this week. On a slightly positive note in favor of the bulls, the Dollar did close above a somewhat minor weekly close resistance level at 104.56 the previous week and that mini breakout did not get negated, suggesting the bulls continue to have a slight edge. Evidently, what happens this week with inflation and with the Fed, will impact what the Dollar does. Any daily close below 104.35 or above 105.21 will give new ammunition to whichever side gets broken, especially on Tuesday or any day thereafter.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
As I stated on the message board on Friday, I do believe that purchases in the Chinese market stocks is the way to go, no matter what happens fundamentally to the U.S. markets this week. The HSI index closed on Friday at 19309 and further downside below that level is expected to be seen this week. Important and pivotal support is down at the 18200-18400 level and with the U.S. market going substantially lower on Friday (after the Chinese market was closed), getting down to that support is a high probability this week, and probably on Monday.
The Chinese market is not likely to be affected with what the U.S. market is likely to go through, meaning that the charts say that purchases in Chinese stocks is the way to go at this time.
PURCHASES
BABA Friday Closing Price - 82.96
BABA (same industry as in Google) has proven to be a volatile stock. Over the past 19 weeks, the stock has moved up from a low of 58.01 to a high of 121.30 (more than doubled in price) and is now back down to 82.96. The stock broke a minor intraweek support at 85.04 and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 82.33 will be seen this week.
BABA has built a strong intraweek support base that spans the area between 73.29 and 81.07 but on a daily closing basis, the area of support is between 76.79 and 81.07 and on a weekly closing basis, it is between 85.65 and 76.71. Simply stated, the stock will likely enter an area this week where buying interest will be found. The chart suggests the stock will be in a trading range between $80 and $120 for the next 3 months but there are 4 analysts that are presently following the stock that state that the stock is in an uptrend and their stated upside objectives are between $130 and $160.
BABA does have quite a bit of established resistance between $122 and $125 but it can be said that there is a triple high in that area and that does suggest that at some point in the not too distant future, that area will be broken.
As far as support and given that the stock is volatile, the preferred entry point into the trade will be somewhere between $78 and $81, with the $78 level being the preferred entry point.
At this time, purchases of BABA around the 81.00 level and using a stop loss at 76.65 and having a $120 objective, offers a 9-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5-1 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
LI Friday Closing Price - 21.37
LI is in the electric car industry (like Tesla) and it has also run the gamut of price over the past year, having shown a high of 41.49 and a low of 12.52. It does need to be mentioned that an article came out the week prior that Tesla has been slipping within its own industry due to Elon Musk not dedicating himself on the company as much as he dedicates to Twitter. This means that other companies in the industry are seeing more opportunities to expand than normal.
LI recently got up to an established but somewhat minor area of weekly close resistance between $25 and $26 that did stop the run up from 12.52 (got up intraweek to 27.48) but has now backed off to last week's low at 20.86. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below that level is expected to be seen this week.
As far as intraweek support is concerned, LI shows important and pivotal support at 17.90, which should not be broken unless some new and negative news comes out (unlikely). There is presently established intraweek support at 20.54 (minor) at 19.69 (decent), at 18.83 (minor to perhaps decent) and at 17.90 (decent and pivotal).
To the upside, LI does now have intraweek resistance at 27.48 but above that, there is open air up to the 31.95 level and given that the stock is in a midterm uptrend, I would say that level will be the objective.
Purchases of LI between 19.69 and 20.30 and using a stop loss at 17.68 and having an objective of 31.95 offers a risk/reward ratio of at least 4.4-1. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
TCEHY Friday Closing Price - 42.55
TCEHY is a Chinese multinational technology and entertainment conglomerate and holding company headquarters in Shenzhen. It is one of the highest grossing multi-media companies in the world, based on revenue. It is a stock that started trading back in 2008 at a price of $1.14 and moved up consistently to make an all-time high at 98.40 in February 2021, at which time is began a downtrend that seemingly ended in October of last year at 24.75.
TCEHY did generate a "straight-up 3-month bounce (no corrections) back up to back up to 52.88 that ended in January of this year and has now given back 20.5% of that gain and did close near the low of the week last week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.05 will be seen this week. It is evident that this correction is likely to end up becoming the required/needed retest of the 24.75 low, which is a 6-year low that has not yet seen a retest of it. A successful retest of that low is required before any further upside can occur.
TCEHY has decent and "well-established support between 37.92 and 40.85. That support spans 4 years (going back to 2019) and has been proven to be support on 9 different occasions during that period of time. Given that the Chinese market index is likely to head lower this week but reach that same kind of support as is seen in the stock, the probabilities of a bounce occurring from there are high.
To the upside, TCEHY shows resistance at 51.55, at the recent high at 52.88 and at the 200-week MA, currently at 55.55. Nonetheless, if that MA is broken, there is open air up to the $65 level. Nonetheless, the 200-MA line is going to be the objective of this mention.
TCEHY is expected to get down to at least the 41.19 level (based on recent chart action) but if that level is broken, it could visit the 37.92 level. A break below 37.92 would weaken the chart but there is additional support at 36.57.
As such, purchases of TCEHY at 41.19 (or hopefully below) and using a mental stop at 37.65 and having a 55.55 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Evidently, the ratio goes exponentially higher the lower the entry point is accomplished. My rating on the trade is 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMRX has broken down totally and there is no chart information I can give at this time. This is a stock that should not be owned at this time (until some positive chart action is seen). Having said that, I am still in it and what the bulls need to have a chance of recovery is for the stock to generate a daily and weekly close above 1.96 (closed on Friday at 1.53). The stock has seen 7 red days in a row and 10 out of the last 11-days (43.4% drop from the recent high daily close at 2.70). The earnings report came out last week and it was better than expected, meaning this drop does not seem to have a fundamental reason for it happening. The 1.50 level is one more psychological support area but the 1.70 level was as well and it got broken. As I said above, there is no chart reason at this time to be in this stock. CAT generated a strong short-term negative statement this past week, having dropped from 255.70 to 225.80 (11.7%) and in the process, making a new 3-month intraweek and daily closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below 225.80 will be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent support at 225.56 but below that, there is nothing until 211.36 is reached. In addition, a drop down to that level (225.56) will make it a multiple low, meaning it should be broken. The 211.36 support does include the 200-day MA, currently at 212.05. The stock shows a breakaway up gap at 221.79 that should be closed as there is no reason for it to stay open. It also needs to be mentioned that there is now a breakaway/runaway gap formation to the downside in place, meaning that the runaway gap at 240.61 should not be closed until the fundamental picture turns bullish again. The chart does suggest that the bears are going to attempt to reach the 200-day MA (at 212.05) this week or next and that some type of bounce from there will likely occur (probably back up to near the $240 level. This means that I will likely be covering the shorts (and taking the loss) on such a move down. That is not yet set in concrete because if the CPI report comes out higher than expected and the index market takes a sharp turn down, this stock could still get down to the $180 level over the next couple of months. For now, the probabilities favor the bears. DOW made a new 2-month intraweek, daily and weekly closing low and closed at the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.32 will be seen this week. This area does have importance as a support level, given that the 200-day MA is currently at 53.03. It is also important to note that the stock shows a breakaway/runaway gap to the upside formation with the runaway gap being at 52.98. It that gap gets closed, the breakaway gap at 51.15 will be targeted for closure. The stock did generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having broken the previous low daily close at 56.60. In addition, a failure signal against the bulls was also given when it closed below a previous high daily close at 56.11 and a previous high weekly close at 55.88, meaning that the uptrend is officially over. The question that will be asked this week is whether a short or midterm downtrend has begun or whether the stock will trade sideways for the next month or two. The $53 level will be the deciding factor. A weekly close below 53.02 will mean the stock is in a downtrend and that the November lows at $50 will highly likely be seen and perhaps even the October lows down around the $44 level. For now, only a drop down near the $53 level can be counted on. To the upside, any daily close above 56.11 would give the short-term edge back to the bulls. ENG generated a new 3-year intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .63 will be seen this week. The next support is not found until the .52 level is reached and the next important support is at .46. There was no news to support this additional drop other than the fact that the company was supposed to announce earnings on Thursday and no announcement was made. Perhaps that was the reason for the drop. In looking for fundamental information as well as coverage of the stock, I was only able to find 1 company that is covering the stock. That company has a buy rating with an objective price of 5.50 for 2023. Other than that, I could find nothing else. The chart outlook is negative right now and there is nothing that can be said about holding on to the stock other than this stock has done something like this for a total of 8 times over the past 15 years. Those occasions were all the same as what is being seen here, which was to be under consistent sell pressure and then spiking up in a big way over a period of a few weeks. Awaiting information about when the earnings report comes out is what I will be doing this week. PLNHF once again did nothing of consequence this week. As such, the same levels as stated last week (.81 to 1.05) continue to be possible trigger points. There has been no new news and no news is scheduled to be released any time soon. The volume continues to be very low but the stock did see some action this past week as it went above the previous week's high and then reversed to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .83 will be seen this week. As such, this week could be indicative given that the established support for the past 9 weeks is at .81. SHOP generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-week intraweek high and then reversing to close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.52 will be seen this week. The bulls had been able to get above an intraweek resistance level at 45.06 as the high for the week was 45.98. Nonetheless, the pivotal weekly close resistance level at 43.40 ultimately held up as the stock closed at 41.46, suggesting the bulls failed and new selling is likely to be seen. If the recent intraweek low at 39.02 is broken, there is no support below until 34.38 and then pivotal at 32.35. The 200-day MA, currently at 36.34 will likely be a magnet this week. Any daily close this week below 40.10 will be confirmation of this outlook. Any daily close above 43.40 would negate the outlook. TXT generated a strong down move, having dropped 8.5% from the previous week's high and making a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 68.75 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the low daily close for the past 6-weeks at 72.53 and a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below a previous and important high weekly close at 71.71. Any red daily close on Monday will give the bears additional ammunition as there was decent established daily close support at 69.28 that technically got broken on Friday with at 69.26 close. The 200-day MA, currently at 66.83 is the objective for this week. Any daily close below 66.38 on Tuesday (or any other day thereafter) would open the door for a further drop down to at least the 63.55 level. Any weekly close below 67.85 would put the stock back into a short-to-midterm downtrend. Any daily close above 73.06 would give the bulls the edge back. VET generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the the previous week's high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.25 will be seen this week. The company did report earnings on Wednesday evening and they were better than expected, meaning that is what caused the new 14-day intraweek high to be made. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to confirm the breakout on the daily closing chart and that means that the bulls need to do more this week to establish that no further downside below the recent low at 12.90 will be seen. A drop below last week's low at 13.25 but not breaking below the 12.90 level, and then going above this coming week's high next week, would mean that the 12.90 low has been tested successfully. The 12.90 low is also very important as it would mean that the 200-week MA, currently at 12.58, will have been tested successfully. Any daily close above 14.13 would now be a signal that the downtrend is over. ZLAB generated a new 9-week low and the stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 32.38 will be seen this week. The gap up at 33.94 was closed and a new sell signal was given on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed below 35.84 (weekly) and 35.56 (daily) on Friday (closed at 32.68). There was no new news on the company to support this drop, meaning that it was not only chart oriented but likely based on the Chinese and U.S. markets having a down week. The action seen did change the chart for the short-to-perhaps-the-midterm to being in a sideways market (likely between $30 and $50 for the near future. Nonetheless and unless the bears can generate a weekly close below 30.76, the outlook for the future remains the same. Simply stated, the action this past week was more of a delay in the positive outlook for the future than any negative change of consequence. I would venture to say that the stock will get down to the 31.72 level (daily close support found there) and then turn around and begin a new rally. Any daily close above the 200-day MA, currently at 36.95, would negate this drop and give the short-term edge back to the bulls.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.68. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .65. 3) SHOP Shorted at 53.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 41.46. 4) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 227.01. 5) AMRX - Averaged long at 2.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.53 on Friday. 6) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.88. 7) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. Stop loss at 12.65. Stock closed on Friday at 13.60. 8) TXT - Averaged short at 70.77 (2 mentons). Stop loss now at 76.25. Stock closed on Friday at 69.26. 9) PLNHF - Averaged long at 1.91 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .83.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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