Issue #808
April 9, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Action shows traders having no clear idea of what is to happen. Earnings Reports will hopefully give direction.

DOW Friday closing price - 33485
SPX Friday closing price - 4105
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13062
RUT Friday closing price - 1754

The indexes generated an overall uneventful week with the DOW increasing .06% in value, the RUT decreasing 2.6% in value and the other two closing red but by very small and insignificant amounts. There was also no consensus on the closes, as the DOW and SPX closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading ranges and the other two in the lower half of the weeks' trading ranges. Simply stated, nothing was decided or even indicative. On Friday, the Jobs report came out but the report came out as expected and therefore not likely to generate any movement in either direction at the start of the week. Traders will therefor wait for the CPI report on Wednesday, the 1st Republic Bank earnings report on Thursday and the JP Morgan report on Friday morning, before even beginning to choose a side.

As far as what to expect for the beginning of the week, the DOW is likely to continue to lead the way up (as it has done for the last week and a half) and head up to the next (but minor) daily close resistance at 33747 (260 points higher from Friday's close). The SPX has existing resistance at 4124 (19 points higher from Friday's close) that should not be broken until something fundamentally tangible occurs. The NASDAQ has resistance at 13181 and again at 13331, neither of which should be broken (based on last week's action) but if the former gets broken, the latter should not. The RUT has been the weakest of the 4 indexes for some time and that was proven again last week with being the only index to close down over 1% and in the process give a failure signal against the bulls as well. As such, the index now shows short-term pivotal daily close resistanceat 1802. The same situation is seen to the downside, as it has short-term pivotal support at 1720. With the index closing on Friday at 1754, the support level is a lot closer than the resistance level.

Nonetheless and given that the Jobs report was not catalytic, it is unlikely any of these levels will even get a chance to be broken until Wednesday's CPI report. Even then and with the PCE report last Friday having been better than expected and the Fed stating they follow PCE much more than CPI, it does not seem that report could be catalytic either. As such, the direction for the week is not likely to be decided until Friday when the JPM earnings report comes out. JPM is not a Bank but it is in the financial industry and that is where the problems that could affect the market substantially, are being seen.

Here (for information's sake) are the levels to the upside and to the downside that if broken (unlikely this week) would give clear signals. In the DOW, it is 34245 to the upside and 32560 to the downside. In the SPX, it is 4123 and 3936, respectively. In the NASDAQ, it is 13667 and 12302. None of these levels are likely to be "in play" until at least after the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are done (after May 4). Otherwise, the direction for the week is not likely to be decided until at least Wednesday but probably not until Friday.


GOLD made yet another new 55-week intraweek high and weekly closing high and did close above the 3-year weekly close resistance at $1887 on Friday (closed at $2011), meaning that the all-time high weekly close at $2018 is the only resistance left above (on a weekly closing basis). On an intraweek basis, there is a double top at $2078, which is still $30 above last weeks' high at $2048, meaning the bulls still have more to do before they can claim that this rally has "won the war". Gold did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at $2048 than below last week's low at $1966. One thing that has happened on this rally though, is that the bulls are now in a "sink or swim" scenario where "any" failure will be highly damaging to the chart. The fundamental scenario does support the bulls as it is expected that the Fed is just about done in raising interest rates but inflation has not yet shown that it has been controlled-and-on-the-way-down, meaning that the bulls do have the probabilities in their favor. At this time, any intraweek move down below $1966 in addition of a weekly close below $1987 would be seen as a negative. Otherwise, Gold should continue higher this week.

OIL got unexpected positive fundamental news this past week, in the form of a surprise announcement from OPEC that they would be cutting an additional 1.16 million barrels-a-day in production. That news caused Oil to gap up on Monday and make a new 9-week intraweek high on Tuesday and on Friday, a new 10-week weekly closing high. Oil closed out the week in the upper half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 81.76 will be seen this week. It has been evaluated fundamentally that the cut would put an additional $10 in value unto the price of Oil, meaning that from last week's close at 75.67, it would offer an $85 objective. That price is certainly viable on the charts as above a short-term intraweek pivotal resistance at 82.66, there is open air to 85.41. Nonetheless, the action seen after the announcement was not convincing as the high of the week was on Tuesday and the rest of the week, Oil did idle. The slow action could be associated with a short holiday week, meaning that the rally could resume on Monday and if that does happen, it could be with a second gap, which in effect would confirm the bullishness of the announcement. On the other side of the coin, if that does not happen early in the week, it will be strongly disappointing and likely cause Oil for fall down to close the gap below. As such, Monday's action is important as the bulls need to take out the 82.66 level on that day, to further cause Oil to move up to the $85 level. Either way, with the news and the chart action seen the past few week's, it is now officially evident that the downtrend is over. This does mean that it is probable that a sideways trading range between $75 and $85 will now be in effect for the next 1-2 months, in which a break above 85.41 would then be considered a breakout and put Oil in a short-to-midterm uptrend.

DOLLAR generated the 4th red week in a row, meaning that the traders are no longer expecting much more of an interest rates hikes to come. Nonetheless, the action in the Dollar chart was still not being a confirming factor as it was able to stay above the pivotal weekly close support area between 101.67 and 101.93, having closed on Friday at 102.09. Nonetheless, it certainly seems evident that by this coming Friday, some direction will be chosen. The Dollar did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.42 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, strongly pivotal support is found at 100.82. On the daily closing chart, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 102.51 and pivotal support is at 101.22. Whichever of those levels get broken, is likely to generate some further movement in that direction. To the upside, the objective would be 103.60 and to the downside, the objective would be 99.29. The fundamentals support the downside a bit more than the upside.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as this week it will be all about the CPI report on Wednesday and the beginning of the earnings quarter on Friday. As such, and until those reports come out and the traders show some direction, the market is likely to mostly idle. The seasonal tendency continue to favor the bulls but with so much fundamental uncertainty regarding inflation and the bank crisis, the seasonal tendency is likely to take a back seat to the fundamental news this month, mostly based on the earnings seen. This means that unless there are some big surprises (unlikely), the market is likely to go sideways for this month. It also needs to be noted that recessionary pressures are building and most analysts seem to believe that a recession will start around July. Such an outlook will curb any aggressive buying coming in.

I am continuing to look at Chinese stocks as the stocks to have purchases on but I do not see any of them being at levels of points-in-time to consider purchasing the week. Then again, the Chinese market is not necessarily locked in to what the U.S. market does, meaning that from one day to the other that can change. If that happens, the mentions will be given on the message board, or a special email basis.

Last but not least, read the comments of AMRX, BABA and ENG in the held section below. Those three stocks have a chart scenario this week that could be explosive, if and when certain chart actions occur.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AMRX did very little this week as it traded in a very narrow $.16 cent trading range, the lowest trading range in 10 weeks. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a green weekly close (2nd in a row) and also has likely generated (on the daily chart) a successful retest of the all-time low at 1.24, with a drop down to 1.31 on Friday, and then having a positive reversal day, having closed above Thursday's high at 1.37. The stock did close on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 1.41 will be seen on Monday. If that does occur (likely), the retest will be seen as successful. If all of that is followed by a break above the 19-day high at 1.47, the successful retest will be confirmed and with open air above until 1.96 is reached, the stock could end up having a nice 34% rally over the next couple of weeks.

BABA generated an uneventful inside week but did close out the week green, meaning that the rally continues. The stock did generate a 7.5% correction from the previous week's high at 105.05 but then closed with a small spike up day on Friday and closed on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 103.23 will be seen on Monday. If by any chance the stock gaps up any day this week, a breakaway/runaway gap formation will be formed, which would offer a 122.83 objective. Above the previous week's high at 105.05, there is no resistance until the $121 level is reached, meaning that chart-wise, there are no obstacles to the stock accomplishing the objective (if and when another gap occurs on the daily chart). Last week's low at 97.26 must now be considered short-term important support. A break of that level would likely take the stock down to test the 200-day MA, currently at 92.36. Nonetheless, the news that caused this rally to happen is strong and opens the door for quite a bit of growth to the company over the next few years. This means that the bulls have a viable upper hand at this time. Adding positions should be considered on any gap up as the gap area can be used as a stop loss, which would minimize the risk of such a trade substantially.

ENG generated another new 10-year intraweek and weekly closing low (much like the previous week) but on this occasion, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at .412 than below last week's low at .337. The company did finally report earnings (about 4 weeks after it was due) and they were disappointing and the reason for the gap down and new low. Nonetheless, it seems that the company knew this in advance and prepared themselves for some changes that would prevent this downtrend from continuing, given that about 4 weeks ago they re-hired that old CEO that had been with the company previously and that had been their CEO when the stock rose to $9, just 26-months ago. In the earnings report, he did assure the stock-holders that he was instituting actions to lower the costs/expenses and increase the profits of the company and that he believed the future was bright. The all-time low of the company is $.30 cents and last week's low was .337, meaning that if the stock does rally, it will be seen as a double bottom of note. The stock did gap down, on both the daily and weekly charts, and if by any chance the stock gaps up on Monday, it would be a strong chart reason to buy. It would open the door for not only a double bottom but for an "island formation". That combination would be a powerful reason for the bears to cover their shorts and for the bulls to purchase the stock. Key level of resistance to watch from here on in is the .56 level. That level has been the high for the past 17 days and if broken, it would be a clear sign that a major bottom has been built. Evidently, a new all-time low below .30 would be a negative now.

IR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high but then closing red and below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 54.12 is expected to be seen this week. There are 4 intraweek levels of support below at 53.88, at 53.38, short-term indicative at 51.84 and longer term pivotal at 50.75, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 51.23. A break of the latter, would offer open air below until the 200-week MA, currently at 43.36. The reality is that if the stock does go below last week's low this week, last week's high at 58.60 will become the required/needed retest of the 14-month high at 60.39, which would weaken the chart substantially. There is quite of bit of support below (at the levels mentioned above) but if 51.84 is broken, the uptrend will end and if 50.75 is broken, a short-to-midterm downtrend will begin. To the upside, a rally above 56.91 would begin to negate the weakness the chart is presently showing.

PLNHF continued its red run, having generated another red week (7th in a row) but once again did it with no fanfare of movement of consequence. The red closes over the past 7 weeks (at .88, .86, .84, .82, at .78, .78 and Friday's close at .75) have seen the stock move down a total 0f 14.5%. The volume has been mostly 50% lower than what was being seen previously. Simply stated, there seems to be very little interest in trading the stock at this time, by both the bulls or the bears. It does need to be mentioned that the intraweek low made 5 weeks ago at .70, has been the low for the past 14 weeks, once again giving notice that the traders are waiting for news before doing anything. It is interesting to note that the stock did generate the high and the low for the week on Thursday and did it in a positive reversal format, suggesting that some action to the upside could be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at .92 cents but if the bulls can get above .83, it is likely that an attempt at breaking the .92 cent level will be seen. A drop below .70 would suggest a retest of the .60 low, made in December will occur.

RBLX generated a new 23-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 47.65 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 24-week intraweek high at 47.67 was not broken, meaning that the stock remains in a midterm sideways trend. It also needs to be mentioned that for the past 14-months, and since a major weekly close support level at 58.18 was broken, the stock has failed each and every time (4 tries) to get consistently above this established (and decent to strong) intraweek resistance area between 47.05 and 53.88. Each and every time that it got up to one of those areas (53.00. 53.88. 47.05, and 47.67), within 1 week thereafter, a "minimum" 15% fallback occurred. This does suggest that without help from the index market, or from some company news, the same will occur this time. The next earnings report is due out in 5 weeks, meaning that it is unlikely any positive company news will come out this week. Minor but short-term pivotal support is found at 44.33. A break of that level could be a sign that the high for the rally has been found. A drop below 41.11 would make that a fact. It is important to note that a daily close above 46.50 (closed on Thursday at 46.20) would suggest the $50 level would be seen. A daily/weekly close above 51.15 would be a major breakout. Downside target on the chart and based exclusively on the weekly closing chart, is the 34.82 level, meaning that at $46, the risk is $5 for a downside of $11 (per share).

TXT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.25 will be seen this week. There are only 2 intraweek support levels below (at 66.37 and at 65.15), which if both broken would weaken the chart substantially. The stock has been in a 23-week scenario where the bulls had the trend and upper hand in their favor and were not able to get above the high at 76.11 that was made 54-weeks ago. Over the past 22 weeks, there has only been 1 week where the stock generated a weekly closed below Thursday's close at 67.71, and that was 5 weeks ago when it closed at 66.19. As such, it can be said that the bears have a clear edge right now that the bulls need to negate this week if they want to have a chance of the higher retesting the recent highs one more time. The 200-day MA is currently at 67.25 and it is likely to be reached this week but it is support. Any daily close below 66.19 would generate a sell signal of consequence. If that occurs, the $62 would become the next objective. A daily close above 68.70 would take away some of the sell pressure and a daily close above 70.93, would give the edge back to the bulls.

VET generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row, suggesting the failure signal against the bulls that occurred 4 weeks ago when the 200-week MA was broken, currently at 12.41, has been confirmed. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.11 will be seen this week. A required/needed retest on the weekly chart of the 16-month low at 11.93 that was made 5 weeks ago has not yet occurred and therefore if the stock does go below 13.11 this week, that would open the door for a retest to occur. Some support is found at 12.90, which should be seen this week. If that holds up and the stock rallies thereafter, the retest will be successful. If the 12.90 support does not hold up, the next support is at 12.28, which if broken would give the expected recovery rally less of a chance of occurring. With the energy sector presently looking short-term positive, I do expect 12.90 to hold up. A rally above last week's high at 13.87 would give the bulls new ammunition and a break of the intraweek resistance at 14.39 would generate a new and significant short-term buy signal that would open the door for a rally up to the 16.25-17.00 level.

ZLAB generated a totally uneventful inside week and a totally uneventful weekly close, with even chances of going above last week's high at 34.52 or below last week's low at 32.39, neither of which would generate any new action. In using the daily chart, it is possible that a bull flag formation has been formed, with the flagpole being the rally from 30.14 to 35.68 and the flag being the action seen the last 5 days with a low at 32.38. A break above the top of the flag, would offer a 37.92 objective. The 37.76 level is a short-term pivotal weekly close resistance area, which if broken would give the bulls the edge back. This stock is presently likely to move more based on what the Chinese stock market does than on the company itself. By the same token, there is strong support close by below at $30 while resistance of any consequence is not found until the $46 to $49 level is reached. As such, the chart (at this price) benefits the bulls much more than the bears. Any move below 30.14 at this time would be a negative.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.33.

2) ENG - Purchase at .37. Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .38.

3) RBLX - Shorted at 43.72. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.20.

4) AMRX - Purchased at 1.325. Averaged long at 1.785 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.40 on Friday.

5) IR - Shorted at 56.78. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 54.46.

6) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.17.

7) TXT - Shorted at 68.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.71.

8) BABA - Purchased at 79.83. Stop loss at 88.22. Stock closed on Friday at 102.74.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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