Issue #814
May 28, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Debt Ceiling Issue Resolved? If so, Market should rally!

DOW Friday closing price - 33093
SPX Friday closing price - 4205
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14298
RUT Friday closing price - 1773

The dichotomy in the index market has continued and in a big way as over the past 2 weeks, the NASDAQ has increased in value 7.2% and the DOW has gone down .7%. During this same period of time, the SPX has gone up 1.9% and the RUT has gone up 1.8%. The big Tech companies have been strongly outperforming everything else. Having said that, it was expected that the market would be going higher during this period of time but the debt ceiling issue kept a strong lid on everything, meaning the rally has been muted, to say the least.

Nonetheless, last night (Saturday 5/27) the two parties came to an agreement and on Tuesday, the indexes should all open higher and the traders should be looking to fulfill whatever upside expectations were made for the month of May, if and when it all gets ratified by Congress. Unfortunately for the bulls, they only have 2 days remaining in the month, given that on Thursday, June begins and June is expected to be a seasonal down month, especially now that among all the reports that have come out the past 2 weeks, it is clearly evident that inflation is not ebbing and in fact, might be increasing slightly. What this suggests is that the Fed is now slightly more likely to increase rates at the June 14th meeting than not. Such an increase would be negative to the market.

As far as the upside is concerned, the traders will be looking at the NASDAQ for chart indications. The index has appreciated in price 12.6% over the past 5 green weeks (due to all the better than expected earnings reports on the big Tech world) but is getting close to an important area of resistance between 14689 and 15265, which is the area that originally put the index into a downtrend when broken. It is highly doubtful that area can be broken to the upside as it would mean the long term uptrend has resumed and the fundamentals do not support that scenario.

The 15265 level in the NASDAQ is an intraweek resistance that should not be reached, given that if reached, it would likely be broken. As such, the daily, weekly, and monthly closes from which the downtrend began (when broken), should hold up. On a daily and weekly closing basis, that level is at 14791 and on a monthly closing basis, that level is at 14689. With the monthly close occurring this Wednesday, it suggests the index will only rally a maximum of 391 points above Friday's close.

It does make sense that the dichotomy between the NASDAQ and the DOW might be reversing toward the end of the week, given that if the resistances levels mentioned above get reached by the NAZ, that money would begin to flow into the safer stocks (DOW) at the beginning of the seasonal cycle. After the Fed rate decision, all indexes are likely to fall. Until then, the dichotomy is likely what will be traded.

The bulls in the NASDAQ will be facing one chart problem from the get go, if and when the resistance levels do hold up, and that is that there is no established support below until 13604 (daily closing chart) and 13565 (weekly closing chart) are reached. This means that if the 14700 level is reached at the beginning of this week, the index could drop 1100 points in a fast manner.

Over the past 2+ weeks, the debt ceiling issue has kept all indexes from rallying as much as they could have. Nonetheless, resolution of the issue is not going to give any new ammunition to the bulls (other than to make up from what could have been), and the only thing that means is that a potential big negative has been taken out of the picture. As such, the chart scenario should take over from here on out.

Indeed, in times of market uncertainty and volatility, traders will attempt to take advantage of the situation and influence market movement for their own gains. This can lead to short-term manipulations that may result in temporary breaks of the resistance levels mentioned above. As such, it is important to remember that every break of support or resistance must-be-confirmed, in order to be believable. Keep that in mind when trading this week.

As such, the outlook for the week is for higher levels to be seen this week, but some type of negative reversal this week, or more likely next week.


GOLD generated a new sell signal on the daily and weekly closing charts, having broken all the support levels built over the past 12 weeks (on a daily closing basis at $1958 - having closed on Friday at $1944). Gold closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $1936 is expected to be seen this week. The next intraweek support is found at $1898 and at $1891 ($1923/$1928 on a weekly closing basis). What is more indicative is that there is now a double top on the weekly closing chart at $2018/$2024 that will require some tangible evidence that inflation is continuing "and" that the Fed is no longer fighting it with higher interest rates. By the same token, it is unlikely at this time that a downtrend is to begin, meaning that the probabilities favor a sideways trading range between $1900 and $1980 for the next few weeks.

OIL has traded mostly sideways for the past 3 weeks with a relatively small $5.30 trading range but did generate a new 3 week high last week and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.73 will be seen this week. Oil has built a bullish flag formation on the daily chart, which if broken (a rally above 74.73) does offer an upside objective of 80.50. With the debt ceiling issue now resolved, it is likely that the traders will use the charts for trading at this time (until the Fed rate decision on 6/14). The bottom of the flag is at 69.41. which if broken would change the outlook. In fact, Thursday's low at 70.98 will become short-term pivotal support if Oil goes above Friday's high at 73.05 on Monday. The weekly chart does suggest Oil will be trading between $71/$72 and $81 for the next 2 weeks.

DOLLAR has been in a trading range between 100.82 and 105.88 for the past 25 weeks and there is no sign at this time that it is ready to breakout or breakdown anytime soon. The Dollar did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 104.42 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 105.00 that should be reached this week but is unlikely to be broken. Nonetheless, with the debt ceiling issue now resolved and inflation continuing to climb (as such, the Fed likely to keep raising rates), there is a slightly higher chance that the bulls could generate addition upside, rather than the bears generating downside. With the Fed making their Fed rate decision on June 14th. The probabilities do favor the bulls maintaining their edge until then. The daily chart shows intraweek support at 103.44, which if broken could change the outlook for the short-term.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Now that the debt ceiling issue has been resolved and a rally likely to be seen at the beginning of the week, as well as the seasonal tendency of the market to go down in June, it seems like a good time to consider some short positions.

SALES

CAT - Friday Closing Price - 211.80

CAT has fallen 23% in value since the all-time high at 266.04 was made in January. More importantly, the stock has given a change of trend signal on the weekly chart, having dropped 21% in value during this period of time. Simply stated, the stock is presently in an official downtrend. In addition, the stock broke below the 200-day MA, currently at 218.79, on the 2nd of May and has stayed below the line since then. Last but not least, on 5 of the past 6 weeks, the stock has generated lower lows than the previous week and on the week that did not happen (3 weeks ago), the stock closed near the high of the week but the bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the upside. Simply stated, the stock is in an evident short-to-midterm downtrend.

CAT generated an inside week last week and did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting more downside will be seen this week. Nonetheless, with the debt ceiling issue resolved, it is likely that will not happen and as such, the stock is likely to go above last week's high at 217.16 and once again test the 200-day MA at 218.79. The most recent high (the week the stock went above the previous week's high but saw no follow through) was 219.89. A break above that now established resistance level would suggest further upside up to $230 area would be seen and that would suggest the downtrend is over. As such, the $120 demilitarized zone is a decent and dependable area where to place a stop loss (right above).

To the downside, CAT has a clear objective and that is the 200-week MA, currently at 184.61. There are 4 intraweek support areas at 194.04, at 191.36, at 186.98 and at 179.97. What this means is that even if only the first of these 4 areas are reached, the risk/reward ratio will still be at least 4-1.

Sales of CAT above 217.16 and using a stop loss at 220.35 and having a 184.61 objective offers a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75-1 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). Desired entry point is 218.11.

TOL - Friday Closing Price - 68.04

TOL is a finance company for commercial buildings and has been trading for over 36 years, meaning it is established and chart worthy. It is a stock that has been in a long term uptrend for most of its life. Nonetheless and with the present fundamental situation that suggests that not only the long term uptrend of the market is over for now but that we are about to enter into some form of recession, this recent uptrend is likely to fail to make a new all-time high above 75.61. In fact, this is a company that is covered and rated by the big firms and just last week after the better than expected earnings report that caused the late week rally to occur, Goldman Sachs maintained it's sell rating with a $57 price target. Even those companies (such as Raymond James) that increased their price targets after the earning reports, all the targets given are still below the established all-time high. This suggests this sell mention has a high degree of probability of being successful, if and when the desired entry point is reached.

TOL reported earnings last week and they were better than expected and on Thursday, the stock gapped up between 66.20 and 67.18 to a high of 69.22. No follow through to the upside was seen on Friday (had an inside day). The stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 69.22 is expected to be seen, especially with the debt ceiling issue resolved (which is likely to rally most everything).

In looking at the daily and weekly closing chart of TOL, the level that got broken in December and that caused the stock to drop all the way down to $40, is 68.06 on a daily closing basis and 68.54 on a weekly closing basis. With the stock having closed on Friday at 68.04. it is likely that all of the upside has been reached. Even if a failure signal is given at the beginning of the week (due to the likely rally in the overall market), in order to give the bulls any additional ammunition, they would need to get above the intraweek resistance at 72.75 in order to generate new buying interest and a retest of the all-time high. As such, the stop loss on this trade will be at 72.85.

To the downside, Goldman Sachs objective of $57 is highly viable on the chart given that the stock shows no established intraweek support below until 57.09 is reached. It does need to be mentioned that the stock shows 7 weeks in a row with higher lows than the previous week and last week, the stock did go below the previous week's low but only by $.12 cents, meaning that it can be said the stock has gone straight up for 8 weeks in a row.

In fact, if the market (and the stock) get into a strong short-term downtrend, the stock shows no support of great consequence until the $50-$51 level is reached, meaning that there is potential for additional profits below the $57 area.

There is one pivotal point that if broken, would increase the chances of the $57 level being reached and that is the previous all-time high made in May 2021, which was at 65.68. A daily (and weekly) close below that level would greatly increase the probabilities of the stock getting down to $57.

The probabilities do favor TOL making a new rally high this week, with the $70 level as the intraweek objective. As such, sales of the stock above 70.00 and using a 72.85 stop loss and having a 57.00 objective will offer a 4.5-1 risk/reward ratio. (my rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
ATNI generated a new 4-week intraweek high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high of 38.74 will be seen this week. The bulls do have one small obstacle to overcome this week, in the form of a previous low daily close at 38.64, from which the recent down move to 36.06 occurred after that level was broken. Nonetheless, with the stock likely to go above last week's high and rally even more with the overall market likely to go up, the chart is wide open for further upside to the 40.53/41.14 level where the next level of resistance is found. The original mention's objective was 42.22 but now that the market rally for the month of May was delayed, it is not all that likely that the stock can get above 41.46 (on an intraweek basis), meaning that if this scenario (mentioned above) does occur, consideration to taking profits should be done if the stock gets near $41. Friday's low at 37.53 will be a new intraweek support basis if the stock gets above Friday's high on Tuesday. If that does happen, the stop loss can now be raised to 37.43, which will lock in some profit.

CLF made a new 28-week intraweek low and did trigger the stop loss. at 14.14. Nonetheless and due to the debt ceiling problem causing the break, I kept the positions. The stock then rallied to close at 14.36, which is just slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last weeks low at 13.82 or above last week's high at 15.02, with the latter being more probable due to the debt ceiling agreement. The stock did confirm the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 14.94, as well as the retest of that break the previous week, meaning that the chart picture presently is negative. This means that the bulls "need" to rally this week, get above 15.05, and close next Friday above 14.96 or the chart picture will be confirmed as negative and liquidation should then occur. Any daily close above 15.37 would confirm that further upside is to be seen, while any daily close this week below 14.19 would confirm the opposite. It is a decisive week.

ENG generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .52 will be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at .58, which is the level where the stock was trading at before the worse-than-expected earnings report came out that took the stock down to the .30 level. As such, if that level is broken, it will mean that the negatives of that report have been erased. If that does happen, it is smooth sailing up to the .74 level. Next pivotal resistance would then be at .8176. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at .37.

LXRX had a positive week in which all the downside seen the past 3 weeks was erased. By the same token, the stock closed on Friday at a pivotal level (3.17) which represents a previous high weekly close of importance, as well as where the 200-week MA is currently at. What this means is that the action "this" week will likely be short-term decisive. The bulls need to generate a green close next Friday and if they do, the uptrend seen previously will likely resume. A red close next Friday would suggest further downside below the recent intraweek low at 2.80, is to come. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 3.43 and highly pivotal at 3.49. A confirmed daily close above the latter, will offer a rally objective up to the $5 level. Any daily close below 2.87, would be a negative.

PLNHF continued to make new all-time lows while at the same time, expanding fundamentally. The company announced last week that for the first time in their existence, they had gone into other markets (other than California) and expanded into Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Oklahoma. As such, the potential market for their products has grown. There has been no negative news on the company. Nonetheless, there has been no new buying interest seen either. As far as the chart is concerned, the .60-.61 level on both the daily and weekly closing charts is resistance. If broken, it would generate a failure signal against the bears, suggesting a bottom has been found. To the downside, there is no established support but the .50 level is psychological support.

SNDL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 13-week high and then closing below the previous week's low, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.52 will be seen this week. There was no new news on the company itself to cause this reversal, suggesting that like with PLNHF, this move down is due to the Cannabis industry still experiencing overall weakness. In fact, on May 24th (4 days ago), a Cannabis legalization amendment was blocked by Congress, suggesting that it was the cause of the weakness seen this week across the board on all companies in that industry. As far as the chart is concernded, there is a large amount of support found at the $1.50 demilitarized zone (1.47-1.53), which should stop further downside. If it doesn't and 1.46 is broken, the April low at 1.29 is likely to be tested. Last week's high at 1.98 is now pivotal resistance.

TCEHY made a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.34 will be seen this week. On a small positive note though, the stock broke the 200-day MA (currently at 41.20) on Thursday with a daily close at 40.42 but negated the break on Friday, having closed at 41.25. The Chinese market did go down additionally today and it is likely that the stock will get down to the $40 level on Tuesday. Nonetheless, unless 39.34 is broken, the probabilities do favor the bulls over the bears at this price. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 42.30. A daily close above that level would ease the selling pressure and give the bulls some new ammunition. Midterm pivotal resistance is found at 44.80.

VET generated a new 18-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.31 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then going below the previous week's low and closing red. All of these chart factors are quite negative. Nonetheless, Natural Gas has built a double bottom and has held itself above it for the past 7 weeks and it does seem that both it, and oil, are more likely to head up rather than down for the next few weeks. In addition and with the stock itself, the 3 new lows made over the past 4 weeks have been minimal, with lows at 11.35, at 11.34 and last week at 11.31, suggesting the bears are having trouble pushing the stock down. As has been the case for the past 14 weeks, the 200-week MA, currently at 12.12, has been in play most every week, with 7 closes above the line and 4 closes below the line. At no time during this period, has either side been able to make a solid break. A daily or weekly close above 12.12 would give the bulls a slight edge, while an intraweek break above 12.96, giving the bulls some short-term control. On the negative side, there is no support below until the $10 level is reached, meaning that if the bears are able to get below 11.31 by more than 10-15 points this week, it is likely the stock will head down to that support level and the bears make a solid statement of control.

VWDRY was unable to break above the $10 demilitarized zone for the 12th time over the past 25 weeks, with the bulls being unable to generate follow through to the upside after the stock saw a high the previous week at 10.18. The stock generated a down week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.48 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 9.43 and the stock has been able to close above the line on 21 of the past 25 weeks, strongly suggesting that the bears need negative news to change the generally upward direction the stock has been on for the past 8 months. By the same token and during the past 25 weeks, the uptrend that started in October has stalled and the action has been sideways since then. The areas to watch is 8.77 and 10.77 (on an intraweek basis). Any break above or below those 2 levels would be indicative. Otherwise, the trend remains sideways.

ZLAB did not follow through to the downside this past week in spite of it closing on the low of the week the previous week. as well as the Chinese market heading lower as well. The stock did generate a rally above the previous week's high and did close green but it closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.77 will be seen this week. It is evident by the action seen this past week that the $30 level is important (if not major) support. The stock has been below 32.50 on 10 of the last 12 weeks and yet the low for that period of time has been 30.14. At no time during this period, have the bears been successful in breaking the $30 level of established support. At present, a rally above 35.45 or a drop below 29.70 would be indicative.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.95.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .46.

3) VWDRY - Purchased at 9.72. Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 9.54.

4) - Purchased at 3.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.17.

5) ANTI - Purchased at 36.29. Stop loss at 34.95. Stock closed on Friday at 38.28.

6) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.55.

7) CLF - Purchased at 14.69. Stop loss at 14.14. Stock closed on Friday at 14.36.

8) BABA - Liquidated at 79.19. Averaged long at 85.05. Loss on the trade of $1758 per 100 shares (3 mentions).

9) LI - Liquidated at 28.24l. Averaged long at 22.125. Profit on the trade of $1223 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

11) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. Stop loss now at 39.24. Stock closed on Friday at 41.25.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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