Issue #813
May 14, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Debt Ceiling Impasse Worries Traders. Stops Rally.

DOW Friday closing price - 33289
SPX Friday closing price - 4124
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13340
RUT Friday closing price - 1740

The indexes were supposed to go up this past week but instead they (with the exception of the NASDAQ) went down. What happened? The probabilities favor the threat of a debt default occurring being the cause. There are 43 Republican Senators that have stated that if Biden and the Democrats do not agree to a bill that would cut government spending, that they will vote for a default to occur. Such a default would be extremely negative to the market. The vote on the debt ceiling increase needs to happen before June 1st. After that, the negative action will begin to be seen in the market.

This problem was totally unexpected given that since 1960, there have been 78 debt ceiling increases and on no occasion were any of those in doubt of occurring. The extreme right of the Republican party though, seems to have dug into the trenches and seems to be willing to make it happen to make their point.

With this being a fundamental issue, there is very little that can (or will) happen that will help the bulls fulfill the edge they seemed to have obtained with the market the previous week, until this gets resolved. Biden and the Republicans have been talking and hopefully some compromise can be made.

In the meantime, the traders are playing the market cautiously but it is unlikely that unless things get worse, that any break of consequence will occur. After all, the earnings and economic reports that came out the last 4 weeks have shown that things are not as bad as expected to be.

Nonetheless and with this situation as it is right now, there is more of a chance of a breakdown than a breakout and as such, I will key on the support levels below more so than on the resistance levels above, until such a time that this fundamental situation changes.

In the DOW and on a daily closing basis, there is short-term pivotal support at 33127, which if broken would suggest the 200-day MA, currently at 32754 would be visited. Any confirmed daily close below 32656 would turn the chart bearish. In the SPX, it is a break of 4055 that would bring about a drop to the MA line, currently at 3974, and any confirmed daily close below 3936 would be bearish. The NASDAQ has been the index that has continued to rally and the downside is nowhere near as close to turning negative as the other indexes. A daily close below 13181 would generate a failure signal, a daily close below 12982 would generate a short-term sell signal and a close below 12806 would bring in new selling interest. None of this should happen unless the situation with raising the debt ceiling gets worse.

To the upside, there is only one index to be watched and that is the NASDAQ. It closed at 13340 on Friday and a daily close above 13667 would be a short-term game changer. It is doubtful that even an attempt to get up to that level will occur while this debt ceiling problem is around but if it goes away, that is the level to watch as to what the index would likely do for the next month or two.

There are no possibly catalytical reports due out this week, meaning all the attention is on the debt ceiling issue. It is unlikely that there will be much chart involvement until something on that issue gets resolved or cleared up.


GOLD generated a relatively uneventful inside week but it did close on Friday at $2015, meaning that the all-time high weekly close made the previous week, was not confirmed as the previous all-time weekly closing high was $2018. This is the same situation as with the index market, regarding the debt ceiling. As such, these chart signals are not as meaningful as they would be under normal conditions. As such, there are two levels to watch until this issue is resolved. Those levels are on the daily closing chart at $2055 and at $1981. With Gold closing in the middle of that range, it means the traders are waiting for news to decide which way to go.

OIL also had an inside week but did close red, on the low of the week, and below a somewhat important weekly close support at 71.50 (closed at 71.09). As it is, Oil last week showed weakness, to the point that it made a new multi-month intraweek low and did close out the week, suggesting that the possibly short-term bullish run to the upside was over for now. The debt ceiling issue is hanging over Oil, the same way it is hanging over everything else, meaning there will likely be no resolution until that issue is resolved. On a daily closing basis, a close below 68.56 would further weaken the chart, while a close below 66.74 would be a breakdown.

DOLLAR made a new 4-week intraweek high and close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 102.72 will be seen this week. The weekly close above 101.98 did generate a failure signal against the bears and the daily close above 102.56 did generate a new buy signal. There is a fair amount of intraweek resistance between 102.81 and 103.12 but on a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance until 104.56 is reached. Any daily close below 102.15 would negate these gains.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions this week. Until this debt ceiling issue is fixed, there is no way to determine direction of anything with any amount of certainty.

By the same token, I did mention on the message board (and bought) VWDRY this past week and after the mention, the stock did generate a small breakout and new buy signal. As such, look at the held-stocks section below for information about the stock. There are good reasons why buying this stock at this level could be a great decision.

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
ATNI generated a totally uneventful inside week, which included a close in the middle of the week's trading range and a weekly close just $.05 cents below the previous week's close. From a chart point of view, there is nothing that can be made of the action seen this week. Evidently, the traders are waiting to see what happens to the debt ceiling before doing anything.

BABA generated a key positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low and then closing above the previous week's high. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 88.48 will be seen this week. This is not necessarily a stock that is all that sensitive to the U.S. debt ceiling issue. There was a gap created at 84.50 that should be closed on Monday, especially considering that the stock closed on the low of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 84.75 is expected to be seen on Monday. Once the gap is closed, if the stock gets above last week's high, there is open air to the 20-day MA, currently at 89.36. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance until 92.92 is reached. Any drop below last week's low at 80.15 would now be a negative.

ENG generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .457 will be seen this week. On the daily chart, last week's low at .383 will be seen as a successful retest of the multi-year low at .30, if the bulls can get the stock above the .458 high seen the previous week. A drop below .383 will weaken the chart once again.

LI made a new 36-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 29.96 will be seen this week. The stock rallied 18.8% from the previous week's close and shows open air above until the 31.95 level is reached (minor). Additional levels of resistance are found at 33.76 (minor), at n34.83 (minor to perhaps decent), at 34.86 (minor to perhaps decent), at 36.66 (decent) and at 37.45 (decent to perhaps strong). Intraweek support is now decent at 25.40 and the runaway gap is at 25.01, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised to 25.01 as the runaway gap should not be closed.

LXRX failed to follow through on its previous week's breakout, having had an inside week but with a red weekly close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.84 will be seen this week. The stock gave a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous 16-month weekly closing high at 3.17, as well as below the 200-week MA, currently at 3.16. There was no news to cause this drop in price, especially considering that the company had reported better than expected earnings the week before, which is what caused the breakout. It is important to note though, that the 8-month daily closing high that was first broken after the earning report came out is at 2.69, meaning that was the breakout that brought the rest of the rally to occur. If the stock closes below that level any day this week, the entire rally will be erased. If the level does hold up this week, a rally back up to at least the 200-week MA at 3.16, will likely be seen.

PLNHF negated the positive reversal week made the previous week and continued the downtrend, having made a 3-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .63 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is now likely to test the 5-year intraweek and weekly closing low, which is at .60/.61, which was made in February of this year. There has been no change in the fundamental picture, meaning that it is highly unlikely that level of support will be broken, unless the debt increase problem is not solved. The .82 level continues to be pivotal resistance.

SNDL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2+-month intraweek high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.62 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the move down was not unexpected, given that the stock made a new all-time low at 1.29 just 3 weeks ago and given that there has been no fundamental change, a retest of that low is needed/required. By the same token and using the daily closing chart, the stock generated a mini-breakout when it closed above 1.60 and the stock closed last Thursday at 1.63 and closed green on Friday, meaning that it is possible that the retest of the low has been successful, at least on the daily closing chart. A daily close below 1.60 would re-weaken the chart, while a close above 1.81 would give the bulls new ammunition.

TCEHY made a new 19-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.08 will be seen this week. The stock did break a well-established intraweek support at 42.05, which has given the bears the edge. Nonetheless and on a potential positive note, the stock closed on Friday just above the 200-day MA, currently at 40.99, and until that line is broken convincingly, the negative action seen this past week could be reversed this week. For that to happen, the stock must stay above the 39.34 level and will need to then close above the 42.55 level in order to negate the break.

VET generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and the closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.69 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a new sell signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed below the most recent low daily/weekly close at 12.11 (closed at 11.74), and also closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 12.19. This means that the bears are in control and also means that if the bulls want to negate this break, it needs to be done this week. Intraweek support is at 11.34, which if broken would give the bears new ammunition.

VWDRY made a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 10.00 will be seen this week. A new buy signal was given with the stock closing above the previous 8-week weekly closing high at 9.62 (closed at 9.87). In addition, the stock now shows 2 successful retests of the 200-week MA, currently at 9.39, meaning that if the bulls are able to generate a new 14-month weekly closing high above 10.36, the stock will likely be "off and running". There are 22 analysts currently following the stock and the median target for the next 12 months is the $66 level, with the low projection being $44 and the high projection being $88. Any weekly closing low below 9.18 would negate all of this.

ZLAB bulls once again failed to confirm the breakout that occurred the previous week, and as such, the sellers took advantage of that. The stock did generate a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 32.95 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a new (but short-term) sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the most recent low daily close at 35.36. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a midterm uptrend on the weekly chart, with pivotal support at 31.70. The bulls continue to have success in generating signals that are bullish but then unable to follow through on them. By the same token and over the past couple of months, they have been accomplishing more than they give back, meaning that ultimately, the upside will likely be the end result. Any new daily close above 37.51 is now what the bulls need to get new and additional buying interest.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.57.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .428.

3) VWDRY - Purchased at 9.41. Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 9.87.

4) - Purchased at 3.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.87.

5) ANTI - Purchased at 36.29. Stop loss at 34.95. Stock closed on Friday at 36.69.

6) VET - Purchased at 11.43. Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.76.

7) CLF - Purchased at 14.69. Stop loss at 14.14. Stock closed on Friday at 14.69.

8) BABA - Averaged long at 85.05 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 85.34.

9) LI - Purchased at 22.72. Averaged long at 22.125. Stop now at 25.01. Stock closed on Friday at 29.44.

11) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. Stop loss now at 39.24. Stock closed on Friday at 41.27.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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