Issue #809
April 16, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Action shows traders having no clear idea of what is to happen. Earnings Reports will hopefully give direction.
DOW Friday closing price - 33886
The DOW and the SPX generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing high but the NASDAQ and the RUT remained below the high made 2 weeks ago, meaning the dichotomy between the indexes continues to be seen. The rally in the SPX can be explained, given that the earnings reports that were released last week all came out better than expected. Nonetheless, the DOW was the leader to the upside, having increased in value by 1.2%, whereas, the SPX only increased .8% in value. This does suggest that the traders still believe the index market can go higher but are keeping their expectations realistic by investing in the "safety" of the meat-and-potato industries, which offer less risk.
In spite of the additional increase in value of those two indexes, the bulls were unable to accomplish anything tangible on either chart. The SPX did technically generate a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed at 4137 and the previous and short-term pivotal weekly close resistance is/was at 4136. Nonetheless, a 1-point break of resistance cannot be considered tangible, especially when the index traded as high as 4163 on Friday but then fell back into the close. In addition, the same pivotal area on the daily chart is found at 4179, and the index did not even get close to that (high last week was 4163). Nonetheless, it does mean that this coming week is pivotal as another green weekly close will break the resistance level in a convincing manner.
This coming week, there are no economic reports of consequence scheduled, meaning that the attention will continue to be centered on the earnings reports. GS, MS and C are due to report at the beginning of the week and will affect the SPX. Nonetheless, this week NFLX, IBM and TSLA also report, meaning it will be more market-wide than last week.
On an intraweek basis, these are the levels to watch, which if broken will trigger new buying or selling interest. In the DOW, to the upside a break above 34331 or break below 33376, will trigger a reaction. In the SPX those same levels are at 4195 and 4069. In the NASDAQ those levels are at 13204 and 12833. In the RUT, they are at 1812 and 1742. Evidently, the levels in the DOW and SPX are more indicative than in the other two indexes.
At this moment, there is no clear view of what is "likely" to happen. The bulls evidently have the chart edge right now and the fundamental news has been supportive (inflation coming down and companies continue to report better than expected earnings). Nonetheless, expectations remain high for a recession starting this summer, meaning that there continues to be opposing views to the future. I doubt that those will be resolved this week. It is highly likely that the first week of May will be the pivotal time. Not only will the big and important economic reports come out that week, but the big 3 catalytic stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL) report on the 4th. It is doubtful that the traders will pick a side with any amount of confidence until that week is over.
OIL made a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 83.53 will be seen this week. The breakout does confirm that the downtrend is over. Nonetheless, there is no reason yet to believe that an uptrend has begun, meaning that the probabilities favor a sideways market for the next few weeks or couple of months. There are 2 intraweek resistance levels above, with the first being at 85.41 and the second one being at 93.74. With the news causing the downtrend to end (cut in OPEC production) now being out and likely mostly factored in, and not likely to add to anything more for now, the probabilities favor Oil getting up to 85.41 and falling back to build a new support level before any further upside is attempted. Oil now shows a minor to decent intraweek support level at 76.25. The gap created by the news is at 75.72, suggesting that once a rally high is found, that a drop down to that area will occur. The big and important intraweek support level is at 70.11, which the chart shows it to be a possibility of being reached sometime in the next 3-6 months, reaching that level has about the same probability odds (probably slightly lower) as Oil reaching the 93.74 over the same period of time. For now though, Oil is likely to trade between $76 and $85 with the latter likely to be reached first, within the next 1-2 weeks. Without any "new" change in the fundamental picture, the chart gives this scenario a better than 80% of occurring.
DOLLAR continued to show weakness, having generated the 5th red week in a row and closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 100.79 will be seen this week. The previous intraweek low was 100.82 and it was broken by $.03 cents and the previous weekly closing low was at 101.93 and it got broken by $.38 cents, suggesting that the bears remain in control. By the token, none of the breaks were totally convincing, meaning that the door is still open for the bulls to come in and change the outlook this week. On the other side of the coin, there seems to be no economic reports scheduled that the bulls could use to "turn things around", which suggests more downside will be seen this week. In looking at the chart, a drop down to the $99 level seems to be "in the books" to be reached either this coming week or the next. If that does occur, the $103 level will become the new pivotal resistance level. The chart does show that a drop all the way down to the $94 level could occur over the next 3-6 months. For the time being and under the fundamental conditions that presently exist, it is now likely that the uptrend is over and that the Dollar will be mostly in a trading range that favors the bears slightly. The 102.58 level, on a daily closing basis, is now pivotal resistance. If broken, this chart outlook will change.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week as the news last week did not generate any new committment to direction to the traders. Simply stated, everything remains "up in the air". I expect the same this week as there is very little news that is scheduled to be released this week that will do any clarifying of the future of the market. It is highly likely that the traders will wait for the first week of May to make any decisions. On that week, all kinds or economic and earnings report of importance are scheduled.
Nonetheless and contuing to believe that the Chinese market will outperform the U.S. market for the near future, I am looking to add positions to one stock (BABA) this week. I did give this stock as a mention last week, if and when another gap occurred. Nonetheless, the stock did go down this past week and is likely to get into a support area, which is a good place to add. In addition, last week's mention continues (if another gap occurs) to be viable, meaning that both mentions could happen and each would merit adding.
I also want to say that AMRX and EMG scenarios remain the same, meaning that those will also be trades to be added on "if and when" what was stated last week and is stated this week again, occurs. Those mentions are only to be purchased when the stocks generate a signal. That is not the case at this time.
In all cases, see the update-on-held-stocks area below for details.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMRX, once again, did very little this week as it traded in a very narrow $.15 cent trading range, the lowest trading range in 11 weeks. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.33 will be seen this week. The stock does show decent intraweek support at 1.31, which should not be broken. The company reports earnings on May 5th and the probabilities favor "more of the same as seen the last 3 weeks" occurring until then. The 1.47 and the 1.48 (last week's high) are now considered pivotal. Any convincing break above that area will leave open air to 1.96. A new low below 1.24 would be seen as a negative. BABA generated a red week (the first in the last 4 weeks) and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 93.58 will be seen this week. The stock did make a new 19-week low 4 weeks ago and it is likely that this move down is likely to be a retest of that low, as well as building a new support base. On a weekly closing basis, support is found at 91.34. On an intraweek basis, support is found at 86.71.. On a daily closing basis, support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 91.96. The stock is showing a breakaway gap at 88.22 that should not be closed as it was generated off of positive fundamental news. As such, any drop down to around the $91-$92 level should be seen as an opportunity to add positions, using an 88.22 stop loss. With the objective being the 122.83 level, the risk reward ratio with a purchase around $92, would be 7-1. The present intraweek pivotal level trigger is at 103.24. ENG generated yet another new 10-year weekly closing low (3rd in a row) and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .35 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to keep the stock from going below the previous week's intraweek low at .337, meaning that if the stock does get below last week's low but not below the previous week's low, it could potentially be seen as a retest of the low. If that occurs and the stock then goes above last week's high at .406, it would generate a successful retest that would be confirmed if the gap up at .458 is closed. The all-time intraweek and weekly closing low is at .30, meaning that if further downside below .337 is seen, there is still support below. IR generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green close, meaning that the previous week's weakness did not generate any follow through. The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going above last week's high at 57.03 than below last week's low at 54.13. The stock reports earnings on May 3 and the probabilities favor the stock trading mostly within the recent trading range between 58.60 and 54.12 until then. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 55.87 and the stock closed on Friday below that line. As such, that line is likely to decide who has the edge (bulls or bears), depending where it closes. The probable trading range for this week is $55 on the downside and $57 on the upside. PLNHF generated (technically) a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then closing green (for the first time in the last 8 weeks) and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .785 will be seen this week. In spite of the positive reversal, the reality is that the stock generated the lowest trading range seen since the first 2 weeks of the stock trading back in 2018 and the weekly close was green by only $.005 cents, meaning that it was not a meaningful week. Nonetheless, what was a bit meaningful is that the low was .71 cents and the low seen 5 week's ago at .698 cents and the reversal will be meaningful if further upside above .785 is seen this week, given that a double low will have occurred. If that action is then confirmed with an intraweek rally above .81, it would suggest the selling interest has waned and that a decent base of support has been built. Such action would likely give the bulls the ammunition to generate a recovery rally. The 1.05 area remains mid-to-long term pivotal. Any drop below .698 would further weaken the chart. QQQ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 320.36 will be seen this week. On a negative note, the stock has not been able to make a new intraweek high for the past 9 trading days in spite of the fact that other stocks and indexes have appreciated in value somewhere between .5% and 1.5%. This means that the high seen 10 trading days ago at 321.63 is pivotal (stop loss at 321.73 should be maintained). The 312.57 level is pivotal support, which if broken, would mean the gap at 308.20 would be targeted and likely closed. RBLX generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.44 will be seen this week. The stock shows a double high at 47.65 that will require help to break, but if broken would likely generate a rally up to the 53.85 level, meaning a stop loss should be placed at 47.75. To the downside, a break below 44.33 would generate some new selling and a break below 41.11 would cause the stock to drop down to at least the 200-day MA, currently at 38.55. The weekly chart suggest the bulls need fundamental help to break the established resistance and if they do not get it, a drop down to $36 would likely occur. Company reports earnings on May 10th. TXT technically generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low by $.05 cents but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.96 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the positive reversal occurred because the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 67.47, and there was not sufficient negatives to cause that line to be broken. A break above last week's high would likely bring about a retest of the $70 level. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 70.93. The company does report earnings on April 27th. Pivotal daily close support is at 66.16. If broken, there is open air below to $62. VET generated the 4th green weekly close in a row, meaning that the selling interest has dried up. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.08 will be seen this week. A required/needed retest on the weekly chart of the 16-month low at 11.93 that was made 6 weeks ago has not yet occurred and therefore if the stock does go below 13.08 this week, that would open the door for a retest to occur. Some support is found at 12.90, which should be seen this week. If that holds up and the stock rallies thereafter, the retest will be successful. If the 12.90 support does not hold up, the next support is at 12.28, which if broken would give the expected recovery rally less of a chance of occurring. With the energy sector presently looking short-term positive, I do expect 12.90 to hold up. A rally above the previous week's high at 13.87 would give the bulls new ammunition and a break of the intraweek resistance at 14.39 would generate a new and significant short-term buy signal that would open the door for a rally up to the 16.25-17.00 level. ZLAB generated a spike up rally that appreciated the stock 13.5% in value. The stock closed above the established weekly close resistance at 37.76 (closed at 38.57) and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.42 will be seen this week. The stock finds itself at an important midterm level of resistance, given that there are 2 trend lines (one of the trend lines being a down trend line and the other an uptrend trend line) that the stock has been trading below for the past 18 months and below for the past 6 weeks. These trend lines connect right around the $40 level and that if broken convincingly, would change the trend to an overall midterm uptrend. One good positive seen the last 2 days of the week is that the stock closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 37.46 on Thursday and confirmed the break with another close above the line on Friday. The stock had been trading below that line for the past 28 trading days and this means the sell pressure seen during that period of time has gone away. The probabilities favor the bulls this week but they do need to take the stock above last week's high and generate a daily close above 40.91. If that does occur, a minimum run up to the $47 level is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the breaking of the trend lines would open the door for the stock to get up to the 200-week MA, currently at 73.55, within the next 3-6 months.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 38.52. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .36. 3) RBLX - Shorted at 43.72. Stop loss at 47.75. Stock closed on Friday at 45.90. 4) AMRX - Averaged long at 1.785 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.36 on Friday. 5) IR - Shorted at 56.78. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.70. 6) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.47. 7) TXT - Shorted at 68.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 68.59. 8) BABA - Purchased at 79.83. Stop loss at 88.22. Stock closed on Friday at 94.55. 9) QQQ - Shorted at 319.39. Stop loss at 321.73. Stock closed on Friday at 318.57.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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