Issue #810
April 23, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Action shows traders having no clear idea of what is to happen. Earnings Reports will hopefully give direction.

DOW Friday closing price - 33808
SPX Friday closing price - 4133
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13000
RUT Friday closing price - 1791

The indexes had a very uneventful week with the DOW losing .03% in value, the SPX losing .001% in value, the NASDAQ losing .006% in value and the RUT gaining .006% in value. In recent history and on a weekly closing basis, there has not been a single week where such small changes occurred.

Nonetheless and having said that, the uneventful week did show that the bulls have run out of momentum/ammunition, given that the DOW had generated 4 weeks in a row of green weekly closes while appreciating 7.8% in value and now came to a complete stop. This means that from here on in, it will all be about the news coming out this week and next, which does include the important earnings reports on GOOGL on Tuesday afternoon and AMZN on Thursday afternoon. Added to that and on the earnings front, First Republic reports earnings on Monday PM, MSFT on Tuesday PM, CAT on Thursday PM. On the economic front this week, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, GDP Advance and PCE come out this week. For the first week of May, the ISM Index and JOBS come out on Monday and Friday and AAPL reports on Thursday May 4th after the market closes. These reports and the combined information that is given, will generate indicative movement in one direction or the other.

Next Friday is the end of the month and presently the DOW and the SPX are above the previous month's close by 1.6% and .6% (respectively). The NASDAQ is below last month's close by .07%. This means that unless something very positive occurs this week, the seasonality of April being a strong up month will not occur this month. That, in and of itself, is an overall negative to the market.

The monthly chart will strongly be in play this week/month, given that in all indexes, there is a pivotal intra-month resistance level that if broken would give the bulls quite a bit of new ammunition but if not broken, would do the same for the bears. In the DOW the pivotal intra-month resistance level is at 34344. In the SPX that level is at 4195 and in the NASDAQ that level is at 13188. If those levels are broken this week at any time and the indexes do not immediate negate the breakouts on Friday's monthly closes with closes below last month's closes at 33274, at 4109, and at 13181, it will give the bulls an edge for May that will be difficult to overcome.

To the downside this week, here are the intraweek levels that if broken, would give the bears additional ammunition. In the DOW that level is at 33343, in the SPX it is at 4072 and in the NASDAQ it is at 12833.

Like I said above, the direction of the market for the next few months is likely to be decided over the next 2 weeks, all based on news. It is more likely that the decisions will come the following week but there are enough reports of some importance this week that can certainly tilt the traders in one direction or the other. The charts at this moment are not showing a high probability for either side, which means that taking a side before the reports are out, is at best a 50-50 proposition.


GOLD generated a red weekly close and did go below the previous week's low, meaning that the previous week's high at $2063 is now an established retest of the intraweek double top at $2078. Nonetheless, the door was left open for a positive reversal this week or next (off of the scheduled news) given that the bears failed to generate a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above a previous high weekly close of importance at $1987 (closed on Friday at $1993). By the same token, the onus is now on the shoulders of the bulls to "prove" that the fundamentals are in their favor in order for that to happen. This does weaken the bull scenario as they ran run up against a resistance level of great note and have failed. The door is now potentially open for a drop all the way down to the $1911 level, though in order for that to happen, the $1950 level needs to get broken. The $1950 level has been the intraweek low on 2 separate occasions over the past 23 trading days and is not likely to get broken this week, unless the news scheduled is catalytically negative. The chart shows the probability of Gold trading between $1953 and $2010 for the next few days.

OIL generated a red week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.49 will be seen this week. The weekly gap at 75.72, which was created when OPEC cut production 4 weeks ago, is highly likely to be closed. In the last 25 years, there has only been one previous weekly gap (on the way down) and ultimately it did get closed. As such, this week and with all the uncertainty going on in the economy, is the perfect scenario for closure. There is some intraweek support at 76.20 but if that is broken (likely), the next intraweek support is not found until 72.25/72.47, meaning Oil could get down to that level. Then again, the cut in production is at least a short-term bullish sign, meaning that the only thing with a high probability of occurring is the gap being closed. In looking at the daily chart, there is some support at 75.05 and a bit stronger at 73.83, meaning that the probabilities do favor one of those 2 being reached. Using the daily chart, the entire area starting at 79.04 and up to the previous week's high at 83.63 is now going to be considered decent to perhaps strong resistance that will require some fundamental help to be broken. Ultimately and if broken, Oil should find pivotal mid-to-long term resistance at 85.41. This does suggest that even in the best case scenario, Oil will trade between $73 and $85 for the next 3 months. Any break of either of those 2 levels would be an important breakout or breakdown.

DOLLAR also had a week much like the indexes, having had a totally uneventful weekly close ($.15 cents above the previous week's close. The close did not fully break the support area, nor generated a failure signal against the bears. In addition, the Dollar had an inside week which also means that not only for Friday's close but for the entire week, there was very little trading or speculation on what is to come. It is evident that the Dollar traders are also waiting for the news due out this week, though they are more likely to concentrate on the PCE index (inflation) report on Friday than on anything else. The previous week's intraweek high and low (at 100.79 and at 102.81) are now short-term pivotal support and resistance. A break below 100.79 is likely to cause the Dollar to fall to 99.20 and a rally above 102.81 is likely to generate a rally up to 1.05. Probabilities do favor the bears as the chart is showing weakness and the onus is on the bulls to turn that around.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

This week I am giving 3 purchase mentions but none of the mentions are U.S. stocks (they are Chinese stocks). The reports due out over the next 2 weeks here in the U.S. are not likely to have much of an effect on the Chinese market. In addition, the HSI index chart (Chinese market) is showing a short-term bullish inverted Head and Shoulders formation that suggests that higher prices are to be seen over the news few weeks and months. The index and all the stocks I will mention here today, did have a negative week last week but all are near or at support levels of consequence, meaning the risk/reward ratios are very good and the probability of a break of those level is low.

BABA Friday Closing Price - 89.13

BABA has been mostly in a trading range between $80 and $120 for the past 15 months but did report positive news a few weeks ago (split in company into 6 different sectors) that caused the stock to rally 17% in value in one week (from 86.12 to 103.38) and make a new 9-month intraweek high. Rating companies immediately jumped up to give buy mentions, with one well-known company (Citi Group) giving a $154 objective. The stock has fallen the past 2 weeks and did close on Friday near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 88.30 will be seen this week. The stock did gap up (off of the news) from 88.22 and closure of the gap is likely all that the traders are trying to do, in order to get rid of a potential magnet. Nonetheless, the gap did come off of news, meaning that it is also possible the gap will not be closed.

BABA chart shows quite a bit (9 different times over the past year) of intraweek support that starts at 88.00 and goes down to 85.05, meaning that there is absolutely no fundamental reason at this time for that support to be broken.

BABA shows established resistance between 121.06 and 125.84 but that resistance was established prior to the change of fundamentals, suggesting a strong chance that it will be broken, especially if the Chinese Index heads higher (as the chart suggests it will). The 200-week MA, currently at 171.84, is a definite objective, if and when a breakout above the resistance area occurs. This means that based on Friday's close, the risk/reward ratio could be as high as 20-1.

Purchases of BABA between 85.05 and Friday's close at 89.13 and using a stop loss at 84.65 is what the mention suggests be done. My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

LI Friday Closing Price - 22.93

LI is a company in the electric car industry (like TSLA) that over the past 3+ years (since its IPO in July 2020) has seen an all-time high at 47.70 and an all-time low at 12.52. With the close on Friday at 22.93, the stock finds itself in the lower half of that trading range. The stock just 12 weeks ago got up to 27.48 and this last week, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.52 will be seen this week.

Nonetheless, LI made the all-time low just 6 months ago and since then has been on an uptrend that already shows 2 successful retests of that low, meaning that if the recent successful retest at 20.80 gets broken, it will mean the uptrend is over. With the Chinese index showing a bullish formation, such a break should not occur, meaning that the stop loss at 20.65 is not only valid but at dependable support.

In January of this year, LI did generate a spike low at 22.16, suggesting that is the downside objective this week and from where new buying will be seen. If the uptrend is to continue (likely), the recent high at 27.48 should be broken and above that level there is no established resistance until 29.69 is reached, and even then, that is a "minor" resistance. Stronger resistance is found at 31.95 and then nothing until decent to perhaps strong resistance between 36.66 and 37.45. That area will be the objective, based on what the Chinese index is expected to do.

Purchases of LI around the 22.20 level, using a stop loss at 20.65 and having a 36.66 objective, offers a 9-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

TCEHY Friday Closing Price - 44.10

TCEHY is a multinational technology and entertainment company that started trading in 2008 at 1.34 and by February 2021 got up to an all-time high at 99.40. At that time and at that price, the stock got into a downtrend that ended in October of last year at 24.75. It then proceeded to rally up to 52.88 (a 113% appreciation in value) but then found selling interest as it neared the 200-week MA, currently at 56.06, and then got into a correction down to 42.05, which is presently being considered a possible required/needed retest of the 24.75 low.

The chart of TCEHY is somewhat unclear at this time because the recent low at 42.05 was not an established support, meaning it could get broken and still leave the stock in an overall bullish outlook. Further intraweek support is found at 41.19, at 37.92 and at 36.57, with the most likely level of support to be reached being the 37.92 level.

To the upside, there is spike-high resistance at 56.62, which is further strengthened by the 200-week MA at 56.06.

The reason for the mention today is that if by any chance the 42.05 level of support holds up, it would be a strong bullish sign that could generate even more upside that the 56.62 area. As such, it is worth taking a "shot" at buying it around the 43.30 area and using a stop loss at 41.95 with a 56.62 objective. It would offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio. The negative to this purchase is that the probability rating is no better than 50-50. Then again, if the stock does not break below 42.05 and the Chinese market rallies, it will increase the probability rating and potential upside objective substantially. If the purchase is done and the stop loss is triggered, I would again be a buyer around the 38.00 area and that purchase (with a stop loss at 36.47) would have a probability rating of around 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
AMRX appreciated 26% in value this past week after it reported earnings and they were better than expected. The stock generated a new buy signal when it broke above the established (over the past 6 weeks) daily and weekly close resistance at 1.47/1.43. The stock closed in the upper half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.80 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until the 2.29 level is reached, but there is decent daily and weekly close resistance of note at 1.96. A close above that level though, would be a signal that the downtrend is over. That is a decent possibility. Support on a daily closing basis is now found at 1.47. Based on the news, the stock should no longer close below that level, meaning the question right now is whether the stock is in a short-term sideways phase or whether the stock is now on a short-term uptrend. If the latter is the case, then a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 2.27, will be seen. If that is the case, the stock should rally and close above 1.96 this week.

BABA (see mention above for update details).

ENG generated yet another new 10-year weekly closing low (4th in a row) and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .30 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has now reached the all-time Intraweek low at .30 and closed slightly above the all-time weekly closing low at .304 (closed at .31) and that means that the bulls will need to do something this week or give up. By the same token, if the bulls are able to do something positive this week, a double bottom of consequence will occur. The reason for the recent weakness in the stock was a new increase of shares in the company to raise money that occurred about 5 weeks ago. In reading about the company today, there seems to be no compelling reason for the stock to go any lower. The company shows a low percentage rating of 8% of it being in financial stress. It does have a poor Piotrosky score of 4 but that score is above the 2 that normally means that it is going lower. As such, the probabilities do favor the bulls at this price. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .40. Any close above that level would mean a double bottom has been created.

IR generated an uneventful inside week for the 2nd week in a row but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.83 will be seen this week. The stock shows intraweek support at 54.12, which if broken will weaken the chart and at 51.84, which if broken will mean the 200-day MA, currently at 51.96 has been broken and such a break would generate a new and strong sell signal that would open the door for a drop all the way down to the $44-$46 level. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is at 57.03 and mid-term pivotal resistance is found at 58.60. The company reports earnings on May 3.

PLNHF continued the downtrend that has now been in place for the past 10 weeks and in which, only 1 green weekly close has occurred (last week). The fact that the previous week's green closed failed to generate follow through to the upside, is a negative that strongly suggests the stock needs some positive catalyst to turn things around. Of course, the stock is part of the Cannabis industry and the problem is not with the company itself but with the industry. Having said all of that, the 9-year low at .60 that was made in December, has not been broken and until that occurs, the probabilities overall favor the bulls. The Cannabis industry is expected to grow 14% this year and continue growing at the same rate for the next 7 years, suggesting the downside is likely to be strongly limited or even non-existent at the present prices. Any daily close above .765 would suggest that the .60 level of support has been tested successfully and that some appreciation in price is to come.

QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 314.10 will be seen this week. The rally above the previous week's high failed to break the short-term pivotal resistance at 321.63, meaning that if the stock goes below last week's low, there will now be an established and pivotal resistance at that level. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 312.57, which if broken would open the door for a retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 289.19. This week is likely to bring the necessary fundamental information with which the traders can make decisions, given that GOOGL reports earnings on Tuesday afternoon and AMZN on Thursday afternoon. Those two reports are likely to be catalytical enough to generate short-term direction in the stock.

RBLX reported its monthly metrics for the company on Monday before the stock started trading and evidently the news was disappointing as the stock gapped down and generated a 14.5% drop in price. The stock will report earnings on May 10th but the metrics probably tell the story of how the earnings report will come out. The bulls tried throughout the week to rally and close the gap up at 44.94 but the best they were able to do is rally up to 41.99 on Thursday. Friday was a red day and the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 39.10 will be seen this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 38.67 and that is likely to be the objective for this week, unless the index market breaks down. If that does occur, there is no intraweek support of consequence until the 33.68 level is reached. Evidently, Thursday's high at 41.99 is now short-term pivotal, meaning a stop loss can now be placed at 42.35 to lock in profits.

TXT generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and near last week's low, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.71 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 67.20 and more pivotal and important at 66.19, which if broken would suggest the $60 level will be visited. Short term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 71.57. The company does report earnings on Thursday AM..

VET generated a key reversal, having made a new 5-week intraweek high but then closing red, near the low of the week and below last week's low, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.83 will be seen this week. The negativity of the week came about because the bulls have failed to generate enough buying power over the past 3 weeks to break the minor intraweek resistance at 14.39 and as such, the bears appeared again. By the same token, it has always been expected that the 17-month intraweek low at 11.93, which was made 6 weeks ago, would be retested before the bulls would climb aboard. This low also includes the 200-week MA, which is currently at 12.33. A retest of those two levels is expected to be seen this week and if successful it will give the bulls new and stronger ammunition, while a break of both of those levels will do the opposite in favor of the bears. On a positive note, the Natural Gas chart does suggest that a bottom to its downtrend has been built and if so, it will keep the bears from being successful. Any rally above 14.39 would now generate a tangible sign that a bottom has been built and that a recovery rally is to occur.

ZLAB bulls failed to generate follow through to the upside this past week and because of that, the breakout seen the previous week was negated when the stock closed on Friday below the 37.76 level, which is a level that has been pivotal for both sides for a period of 51 weeks. The negation of the breakout does not mean anything negative occurred. It only means that the bulls are not "yet ready" to take the stock higher. This probably has to do more with what the Chinese Stock market is presently doing (which is trying to build a new support base) than with anything the stock itself has done. The stock did generate an inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.23 will be seen this week. In looking at the daily closing chart, there is support at 35.04 that should not be broken as it was the level (when broken) from which the rally up to the $40 began. A daily close below that level would bring in new selling interest. Any daily close above 40.93 would now be a breakout of note. As such, it is likely the stock will trade between $35 and $40 for this coming week and the following week, a breakout or a breakdown will likely occur, with the former being the most likely.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.00.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .31.

3) RBLX - Shorted at 43.72. Stop loss now at 42.35. Stock closed on Friday at 40.70.

4) AMRX - Averaged long at 1.785 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.63 on Friday.

5) IR - Shorted at 56.71. Averaged short at 56.745 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.34.

6) VET - Averaged long at 16.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.94.

7) TXT - Shorted at 68.96. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.93.

8) BABA - Purchased at 88.47. Averaged long at 84.15 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 84.65. Stock closed on Friday at 89.13.

9) QQQ - Shorted at 319.39. Stop loss at 321.73. Stock closed on Friday at 316.61.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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