Issue #822
July 23, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls at established resistance levels. Good news required to go higher.
DOW Friday closing price - 35271
The dichotomy between the indexes made an abrupt about face the past 2 weeks with the DOW moving up 4.4% and the NASDAQ moving up 2.2%. The dichotomy has been all in favor of the NASDAQ since October, having moved up 44% versus the DOW'S 22% but over the past 2 weeks, the dichotomy has given back 2.2% of that amount. This is suggestive that the speculative buying is ending and conservative approach to the market has begun. This is also suggesting that a correction to the rally is about to begin, considering the strongly overbought condition that exists in all the indexes.
Across the board, all indexes have reached established resistance levels of note, which if broken would suggest a test of the all-time highs would be seen. In the DOW the established weekly close resistance area is between 35365 and 35515 (the index closed at 35271), in the SPX it is at 4545 (index closed at 4536) and in the NASDAQ it is at 16652 (the index closed the previous week at 15565). As such, the indexes are at levels that should not be broken without some positive news. This scenario is especially true given that this recent rally has been straight up (DOW has seen 10 days in a row of green daily closes and no drops below a previous day's low), which means that are no established support levels close by (in the DOW, the closest support level is 1522 points below). In the SPX it is 100 points below and in the NAZ, it is 451 points below.
There is an important economic report this week on Wednesday and that is the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. It is expected that the Fed will raise rates by an additional 25 points. If the raise it by more, or not raise it all, it would be catalytic. If the Fed does not raise rates, it would give the bulls ammunition to rally further.
The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter continues this week with quite a few of the DOW's stocks reporting. In addition, GOOGL reports on Tuesday evening and META on Wednesday evening. Normally, earnings can be a catalyst but given that earnings have generally been coming out better than expected, the only way the earnings could further help the bulls is with "blockbuster" earnings and that is likely not going to happen. As such, there is a bigger chance of earnings causing a correction (if the earnings are less than expected) than causing a rally.
At this point in time, it is unlikely that any "big" surprises will be seen in either direction, suggesting that the charts are going to play a big part in what happens this week. With resistance of consequence nearby, no established support levels nearby, and the extreme overbought condition in place, the probabilities favor a red week at the end of the week.
The one index to watch this week to the upside and on an intraweek basis, is the SPX. It has pivotal resistance at 4593, which is 57 points higher from Friday's close. A break of that resistance will commit the bulls to test the all-time high at 4818.
OIL generated an relatively uneventful inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 77.29 will be seen this week. Over the past 8 months and on a daily closing basis, the 76.27-77.28 level has proven to be a support/resistance level of short-term consequence (not highly pivotal other than for the short-term) on 5 different occasions, including the previous week when it closed at 76.89. Having closed on Friday at 76.81, it is likely that Monday's close will give short-term direction with the $73 or $80 level as the objective (depending on whether it closes red or green on Monday). Otherwise, Oil remains in a $71-$81 midterm trading range.
DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 101.101.19 will be seen this week. It seems thjat the intraweek support at 99.43 has held up as the low for the past 2 weeks has been 99.59. On a weekly closing basis, the Dollar seems to be in a trading range between 99.63 and 101.21 but on an intraweek basis, it could bet as high as $103. At this time, it seems unlikely the Dollar will be a catalyst for either direction.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week, at least not at this time. The Fed rate decision is on Wednesday and that could make a difference depending on what they decide. After that announcement, I may have some new mentions. If so, I will make them known on the message board.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMZN bulls failed to follow through to the upside after the previous week's new rally high and close on the high of the week and as such, the stock closed red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 128.42 will be seen this week. More importantly, the red weekly close made last week's close at 134.68 into a successful retest of the 20-week MA, currently at 133.36. This also means that the bulls now need positive news to negate this retest. Pivotal support is found at 125.92, which if broken would not only confirm the successful retest of the line but also generate a sell signal. The company reports earnings on August 4th, suggesting that unless there is an overall market break this week, the stock is likely to trade between $126 and $132. ATNI generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-month intraweek low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 36.88 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart but that was negated 2 days later. On the weekly closing chart, the stock did not generate a new sell signal. In fact, it now shows a double low at 35.34 and 35.40. By the same token, the bulls were not able to take full advantage of the positive reversal as a weekly close above 36.60 was needed. The stock closed on Friday at 36.02. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 37.13, which if broken would offer open air above to 37.76 and then to 39.33. Both of these resistance levels are minor in nature. Intraweek support is now found at 35.03. The stock does report earnings this Wednesday after the close. ENG generated a totally uneventful inside week with a close at the same price as the previous week. This whole area around the .40 level has been pivotal support and resistance area on 6 different occasions over the past 3 months. The company reports earnings on August 15th and it is unlikely that much will happen until then. LXRX made a new 6-month low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.05 will be seen this week. The stock does show minor to decent intraweek support at 1.87, which is now a target to the downside. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 2.38. The company reports earnings on August 1st. PAAS made a new 10-week high and did close green but saw some selling interest come in when it got into the 16.74-17.48 area with a high last week at 16.89. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high than below last week's low at 15.39. Nonetheless and like with Gold, there is a good possibility that the recovery rally high has been reached and as such consideration can be given to taking profits this week, on a rally. Support is found at 15.62, which if broken would suggest a drop down to close the gap at 14.98. PLNHF did nothing this past week, having traded in a $.02 trading range. The stock closed at .56, which continues to be in the middle of a trading range (between .52 and .63) that has been in place for 10 weeks. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .63. Intraweek support remains at .52. TCEHY generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.03 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has been in a trading range the past 7 weeks between 41.04 and 46.46 and until one of those levels gets broken, the stock will continue to trade sideways. The 200-day MA is currently at 42.06 and the stock has stayed above that line for the past 7 months except on 1 occasion for a period of 5 days. It is unlikely at this time that the line will be broken unless the Chinese market takes a move down (unlikely). TNC generated a green weekly close but then only by $.06 cents and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 79.26 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's high at 81.35 will become a needed/required retest of the double high at 82.07/82.00. Such action would give the bears some new ammunition. Short-term pivotal support is found at 77.07. The company reports earnings on August 8th. TOL bulls failed to generate any further upside, suggesting that the runaway freight train rally has possibly found a top to this rally. The stock generated an 8% drop in price and closed red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.15 will be seen this week. The previous all-time daily and weekly closing high is at 74.61 and a retest of that level is an objective. Nonetheless, a daily close below 76.41 will generate a new sell signal that might cause even further downside to occur. The $80 demilitarized zone should now be resistance on a daily closing basis. VET generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.43 will be seen this week. If that does occur, the previous week's low at 12.58 will become a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 11.99. A rally above 14.13 would not only confirm the retest but generate a new buy signal of short-term consequence. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is now found at 12.58. Company reports earnings on August 2nd. VWDRY followed through to the upside but not in a meaningful way, given that the stock closed only $.18 cents higher and the 200-week MA, currently at 9.59, remained unbroken and untouched. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 9.44 than below last week's low at 9.07. The company reports earnings on August 9th and as such, is not likely to do much of anything until then. The 200-day MA is currently at 9.85 and as long as the stock is above that line, the bulls will have the short-term edge. ZLAB generated a green close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.30 will be seen this week. The green week makes the previous week's low at 26.96 into the required/needed retest of the recent 24.94 low. A break above the recent high at 31.30 would confirm that a bottom to this recent correction has been found and that a recovery phase has started. The company reports earnings on August 7th but with the company showing positive news, the earnings report is more likely to be beneficial than not. As such, a breakout from this correction is likely to be seen this week. Evidently, the 26.96 level has now become short-term pivotal support. A break above 31.30 shows open air to the 39.30 level.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 29.62. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .39. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 9.24. 4) 5) ANTI - Purchased at 36.29. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.02.
6) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.40.
7) CAT - Covered shorts at 255.71. Loss on the trade of $850 per 100 shares.
8) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.16.
9) AMZN - Averaged short at 133.325 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 130.00.
10) TOL - Averaged short at 73.43 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 78.72.
11) TNC - Shorted at 81.20. Stop Loss is at 82.35. Stock closed on Friday at 79.49.
12) PAAS - Purchased at 14.30. Stop loss now at 14.57. Stock closed on Friday at 16.36.
13) CAT - Shorted at 262.88. Covered shorts at 258.85. Profit on the trade of $403.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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