Issue #821
July 16, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Inflation lower. Bulls take advantage as established Resistance level reached.
DOW Friday closing price - 34509
The CPI report this past week showed that inflation continues to drop and that gave the bulls new ammunition to make new rally highs in the SPX and the NASDAQ. The DOW made a new 30 -week high but remained below the high made in December of last year, meaning that unlike the other indexes, it still remains below the highs made last December, whereas the other indexes have broken the December highs and are nearing the highs made in March and April 2022. All indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 34592, SPX at 4527 and NAZ at 15720) will be seen this week.
One of the big problems with this market (as far as evaluating the market itself) is the fact that it has been a market of dichotomies (rather than a normal market). The rally has been more about specific industries and specific companies that have driven the individual indexes up, rather than the overall market. This is clearly shown when comparing the NASDAQ (up 49% since October), the SPX (up 29% since October) the DOW (up 20% since October) and the RUT (up 17% since October). The NAZ has been the leader in a big way, whereas the RUT has lagged.
Nonetheless, that may all be changing or coming to an end (and therefore correcting the dichotomies), given that the Covid pandemic seems to have ended its high influence in the marketplace (and the economy). This suggests that the outlook for the future is beginning to be a bit more clear, rather than confusing and uncertain, as it has been the past 7 months.
Having said all of that above, the next 3 weeks will be mostly about earnings reports. The financial industry kicked off the earnings quarter on Friday with better than expected results. They will continue that on Tuesday with reports on BAC, JPM and on Wednesday with GS. The meat and potatoes industry and the Tech Industry start it off with IBM and NFLX on Wednesday evening. It is somewhat doubtful that any of "these" reports will be catalytic.
One of the things to watch this week is the fact that the NASDAQ has been (and was this week) the driving force to the upside and the index did generate a breakaway/runaway gap on Wednesday and Thursday and on Friday. In addition and on Friday, it generated a negative reversal day, having made the new 15-month high but then closing red and near the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside, below Friday's low at 15531. If Thursday's runaway gap at 15364 is closed (a drop of about 200 points from Friday's close), the breakaway gap at 15135 will be targeted. Given that there are no possibly positive catalytic reports due out this week, such a drop would suggest the Friday's high at 15720 will not be broken this week. Nonetheless, if the runaway gap is not closed on Monday or Tuesday, it is likely that the bulls will climb back aboard for a rally toward the end of the week.
It must be mention that the bulls in the NASDAQ did accomplish a couple of mini breakouts this week as the intraweek resistance was at 15696 (got up to 15720) and the index closed on Friday at 15665 and the weekly close resistance was at 15652. This does mean that if the bulls can generate more upside and generate another green close next Friday, brand new ammunition will come in with which to attempt to go to the all-time high as the target (16674).
In looking at the SPX, it got up to 4527 this past week and there is intraweek resistance at 4545 and on a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 4535. It closed at 4505. In the DOW, the bulls were able to break the weekly close resistance at 34429 with a close at 34509 but on an intraweek basis, the 34712 level remained intact as the high this past week was 34592.
This coming week will be more about whether the bulls have enough ammunition to break out or not. As such, the thing to watch are going to be the intraweek highs and next Friday's closes. It is doubtful that much downside will be seen this week, but the gaps in the NASDAQ will be important. The traders are not likely to make any big decisions this week, given that they will likely wait for the Fed Rate decision on the 26th and the earnings reports on AMZN on the 25th and on GOOGL on the 27th. Nonetheless, some indicative action could be seen this week.
OIL broke out of a 9-week sideways trading range between $67 and $74 and does have open air above up to around the $81 level. Oil did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 77.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Oil did close red on Friday and on the low of the day, meaning that the first course of business on Monday will likely be to the downside with the 74.30 level (on a daily closing basis) as the objective. Such a drop (if the support level is not broken) would confirm the breakout and give the bulls enough confidence in going higher thereafter. On a daily closing basis, any close above 76.89 would offer clear air up to the $80-$81 level.
DOLLAR broke down this past week, having made a new 15-month low (contrary to the 15-month high in the index market). The Dollar closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 99.58 is expected to be seen this week. There is intraweek support between 99.43 and 99.63 (99.63 on a weekly closing basis) that should hold up (Dollar closed on Friday at 99.91) that could generate a rally back up to as high as $103. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, resistance is now found at 101.21, suggesting that a 99.63-101.21 trading range will be in effect for at least a few weeks. At this time though, the onus is on the bulls as the breakdown was from a sideways trading range that has been going on for 31 weeks, meaning that the bulls are now totally on the defensive.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week, at least not at this time. The earnings quarter has begun and given that the bulls got a new edge last week due to lower inflation number, buying at these levels does not make sense (risk/reward ratios in favor of the bulls are bad). By the same token, sales at this time do not offer probability numbers that are dependable. As the market trades during the week, and especially after Wednesday's earnings reports, I may offer some new sell mentions in the message board.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMZN made a new rally high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 136.69 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock did it in a positive reversal way given that early in the week it had gone below the previous week's low and then closed above the previous week's high. One of the reasons for the additional strength is that the company had a 2-day sale last week and reported the highest amount of sales ever. Last but not least, the stock broke above an intraweek resistance at 136.49 and closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 133.16 (closed at 134.68). All of these things combined does suggest that the stock will head higher with the $142 level as the objective. Having said that, the break above the 200-week MA does need to be confirmed this week with another close above that level and the stock did close in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the downside. The stock did gap up on Thursday after the news of the sales record and a retest of that gap is likely to be seen on Monday. The gap is between 131.26 and 132.71 and closure of the gap (as well as a closure of the runaway gap in the NAZ) would suggest further downside. Failure to close the gap on Monday or Tuesday, would likely give the bulls new ammunition. As such, if the gap is not closed, covering of the shorts should be considered. ATNI generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.03 will be seen this week. There is still important support at 35.03 and the 15-month low at 34.74, meaning that the action last week was not yet a back breaker. Nonetheless, last week's action has put the bulls on a defensive posture for this week as a break of these 2 remaining supports would cause the stock to go down to at least the 32.07 level, which is a 11-year low support. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at the 37.19 level. The stock does report earnings on Wednesday July 26th. ENG made a new 4-week intraweek high and did generate a failure signal against the bears, as well as a buy signal, on the daily closing chart. Nonetheless, that was not confirmed on the weekly chart as it needed to close above .403 to generate a failure signal on that chart and ended up closing at .391. By the same token, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above .447 will be seen this week. If the stock generates a green daily close on Monday, it will also show a successful retest of the now new support level on the daily slosing .394 and if that is followed up with any daily close during the week above .427, a short-covering rally will likely ensue. This whole area around the .40 level has been pivotal support and resistance area on 6 different occasions over the past 3 months. LXRX mimicked the previous week's trading range between 2.18 and 2.38 with a trading range this week of 2.19 and 2.38. The stock generated a red weekly close but only by $.01 cent, meaning that the weekly close support at 2.21 was not broken. As such, it can be said that the week was a throwaway week. Nonetheless, the stock did close red and near the low of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.19 will be seen this week. A drop below 2.19 but not below the recent low at 2.08, followed by a green weekly close next Friday would suggest that a bottom to this correction has been found. Short-term but strongly pivotal resistance is found at 2.38, which is the most recent intraweek high but also represents the 200-day MA, currently at 2.36. PAAS generated a spike rally week, having appreciated 12.4% from the previous week's close. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 16.17 is expected to be seen this week. The objective of the mention was the 16.32 level and that will likely be seen/reached this week. Nonetheless, the way the stock got up to this level (in a spike up type fashion) does suggest further upside will be seen with 16.74 now being highly likely to be reached but 16.98 to 17.48 being a possibility. I do plan to take profits if any of those areas are reached. There is one thing that does need to be watched this week (which could change the outlook to a more bullish one) and that is that the stock gapped up this week from 14.83. If that is followed by another gap, especially if above the 200-day MA, currently at 16.36, it would open the door for a rally up to 17.48. Closure of the gap at 14.83, would be a negative at this time. PLNHF did nothing this past week, having traded in a $.02 trading range. The stock closed at .58, which continues to be in the middle of a trading range (between .52 and .63) that has been in place for 10 weeks. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .63. Intraweek support remains at .52. TCEHY made a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.53 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls will be facing a short-term pivotal resistance level at 46.46 that will need to be broken this week if further upside on a short-term basis is to occur. Nonetheless, the stock is now showing a successful retest of the recent low at 38.88, meaning that the probabilities do slightly favor the bulls for a mini breakout. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is now found at 41.08. As such, a stop loss should now be placed at 40.98. A break above 46.46 could open the door for the stock to rally up to the 56.00 level over the next 3-6 weeks. TNC failed to follow through to the downside and did generate a recovery rally where 3% of the previous week's 5% drop in value was recovered. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 79.92 is expected to be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at 80.52, which should not be broken if the previous week's drop was valid. Any daily close above 80.13 would be a positive, while any daily close below 77.26 would generate further selling interest. TOL is in a runaway mode to the upside with a likely target of $84 (closed on Friday at 83.53). The price target is the average of all the rating companies price targets for the rest of the year, which run between a low of $57 and a high of $100. The Housing Starts and Building Permits report comes out on Wednesday morning and that could have an impact on the stock, as to whether a correction occurs or further upside is seen. Probable downside objective on a correction is the $75 level as 74.61 was the previous all-time high daily and weekly close and a retest of that level is likely to happen on any corrective phase. VET generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 12-week high but then turning around to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.73 will be seen this week. One of the reasons for the negative reversal is that Natural Gas did not generate any breakout such as Oil did, and that kept the stock from breaking above the intraweek resistance at 13.99 (high last week was 13.85). Nonetheless, the recent mini breakout was not negated as the bears need to generate a confirmed daily close below 12.53 and the stock closed on Friday at 12.77. Oil is likely to go higher and Natural Gas is not likely to go down, meaning that further upside is likely to be seen in the stock, after this mini breakout is confirmed this week with a successful retest of the breakout level. VWDRY rallied 8.4% above the previous week's close and in the process, generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart as well as a failure signal against the bears on the weekly closing chart. Adding to all of that, the stock closed above the 200-day MA for the first time in the past 15-trading days, which was a line that the stock had traded above since November and had broken below it on June 23rd. All of this action does strongly suggest that the low of this correction has been found and that further upside will be seen for the next few weeks. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.36 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance until 9.86 is reached. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the 200-week MA is currently at 9.57 and that is not likely to be broken until the earnings report comes out on August 9th. Intraweek support is going to be found between 8.77 and 8.80, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 8.87. As such and until that earnings report comes out, the stock is likely to trade between 8.80 and 9.80. ZLAB generated a red week and did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 26.96 than above last week's high at 29.26. There has been no negative news on the company and therefore, this action is mostly chart related. If the recent intraweek low at 24.94 is not broken, the action seen last week will likely end up being the necessary/required retest of that low, which was a 34-week low. The stock did generate a close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the upside. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high (29.24) and confirmation of a successful retest of the low will come on a rally above 31.30. Any daily close below 25.79 would weaken the chart once again.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.85. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .393. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 9.06. 4) 5) ANTI - Purchased at 36.29. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.40.
6) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.77.
7) CAT - Covered shorts at 255.71. Loss on the trade of $850 per 100 shares.
8) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.66.
9) AMZN - Shorted at 135.92. Averaged short at 133.325 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 134.68.
10) TOL - Averaged short at 73.43 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 83.53.
11) TNC - Shorted at 81.20. Stop Loss is at 82.35. Stock closed on Friday at 79.43.
12) PAAS - Purchased at 14.30. Stop loss now at 14.57. Stock closed on Friday at 15.89.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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