Issue #828
September 17 20, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Seasonal September tendency to drop remains alive and well.
DOW Friday closing price - 34618
This past week was all about the ability to get things done and in looking at the end result, the bulls failed. From the get-go on Monday, the bulls took control and attempted to generate a correction-stopping rally. On Thursday, after Wednesday's inflation report and Thursday's Retail Sales report (which came out surprisingly better), the indexes made a new 7 day high and the DOW even went above the previous week's high but then on Friday, the entire rally collapsed, meaning that the indexes ended up giving all the gains up. The indexes ended up closing the week on the lows, suggesting that the September seasonal correction will continue.
This week on Wednesday, the Fed will be announcing their September rate decision. Expectations are that the Fed will not raise the rates this month. As such, if that does occur, it will not be a positive "surprise", meaning it will not give the bulls' new ammunition. Nonetheless, it is expected that at some point before the end of the year, one more Fed rate rise will occur. In Europe, they did raise their rates this past week and given that on Wednesday our inflation number came in slightly higher than expected, it is possible that the Fed may decide to raise rates this week. If that does occur, it would be a negative surprise, which would give the bears ammunition for lower prices. Simply stated, there is a higher chance of a negative coming out this week, than a positive.
Chart-wise and using the weekly closes, this past week was a non-event. The DOW actually generated a green weekly close by 52 points, the SPX closed red by only 7 points, the NASDAQ closed red by 78 points and the RUT closed red by 3 points. As such, no indicative closes occurred. Nonetheless and with the indexes having closed on the lows of the week, the SPX and the NAZ are facing short-term levels of support that could be broken as early as Monday. In the SPX, the pivotal intraweek support is found at 4430 (20 points below Friday's close) and the NASDAQ has its short-term pivotal intraweek support at 15138 (64 points below Friday's close). Normally, I would say that the traders would wait to break such a support until after the Fed rate decision. Nonetheless and knowing that the probabilities of a negative surprise are higher than a positive surprise, I would venture to say that the supports could be broken on Monday, leaving the bulls with the onus of negating the break if the Fed decision is a positive surprise.
There are 2 weeks left in September and the charts do suggest that the seasonal tendency and the correction happening will take the indexes down to the following targets: DOW to the 34271/34473 level. That is 1200-1400 points lower. SPX to the 4233/4278 level. That is 172-217 points lower. NASDAQ to the 13724/14384 level. That is 818-1478 points lower.
The levels to watch to the upside, should any positive surprise occur are as follows: DOW at 35070, SPX at 4541, and NASDAQ at 15618.
Most of the fundamental information on the economy is now clearly known, meaning that it is unlikely that any big surprises will come out in any direction. September is a seasonal down month, suggesting it will not be any different this year. Putting all this together, the chart outlook outlined above has a fair-to-good chance of occurring.
OIL extended the rally with another green weekly close, as well as a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 91.23 will be seen this week. The chart objective had been a rally to the 90.39 level but that got slightly surpassed on Friday. This rally has been mostly about the fundamental picture but now, Oil is reaching a level of established resistance between 92.61 and 92.78 that is not only current but goes back as much as 10 years, suggesting that the fundamental picture must get even more bullish for this level to be broken (on a weekly closing basis). I do not believe such a fundamental picture is in place right now, suggesting this coming week could end up being a negative reversal week. Intraweek resistance is found at 93.74, which if broken would open the door for more upside. Intraweek support is now found at 82.09. On a weekly closing basis, support is found at 85.05 and at 83.19. Based on the present fundamentals and on the chart picture, I would venture to say that Oil will be trading between $85 and $92 for the next few weeks or until the fundamental picture changes again.
DOLLAR generated another new 27-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 105.43 will be seen this week. The bulls are now at a pivotal level of resistance (105.88 and 105.21 - intraweek and weekly close), which if broken, would officially end the downtrend and put the Dollar back into to midterm uptrend or recovery period, with a minimum objective of $108. The Dollar has now generated 9 green weeks in a row and did close on Friday $.12 cents above the weekly close resistance at 105.21 (closed at 105.33), meaning that the bears are obligated to generate a red weekly close next Friday or the Dollar will continue higher and likely for another $3 higher. Evidently, what the Fed decides this week is going to be pivotal. Having said that, the probabilities do not favor this breakout occurring. A trading range between 102.31 and 105.21/105.33 (based on weekly closes) is the most probable.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I only have one mention this week, given that sales are the way to go but most stocks that are sellable have to be chased and as such, the risk/reward ratios are not good. I did find one stock though, that is overpriced (by the rating companies)and that is at a chart level where a sale can be done with decent risk/reward ratio and having a stop loss placement that is dependable.
SCCO Friday Closing Price - 79.72
SCCO is a copper mining company and both the stock and copper chart are suggesting a higher probability to the downside than to the upside. In addition, the rating companies have given the stock a minimum downside target of $74 with some even saying the stock could get as low as $55.
Nonetheless and in my looking at the chart itself, the 73.58 level, which is where the 200-day MA is currently located, seems to be the minimum downside expected. In looking at the weekly chart, I can see a drop down to the $70 level occurring. In looking at the monthly chart, a drop down to 66.50 could be seen.
SCCO now has short-term intraweek pivotal resistance at 81.36 and with the stock closing at 79.72 and the minimum downside objective being 73.50, a short sale of the stock at Friday's closing price and using a stop loss at 81.46, the risk/reward ratio is 3.5-1. If the $70 level is reached, the risk/reward ratio jumps up to 5.5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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CAT generated a 2nd red close week and did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 273.03 will be seen this week. A successful retest of the all-time high has now been confirmed and given that the indexes are primed to go lower, it would suggest the stock will do the same. This is especially true given that the bulls during the week were unable to rally the stock as much as the indexes rallied. There is pivotal intraweek support at 268.80, which if broken, would offer a minimum downside target of 264.54. The open up gap down at 265.21 is now a clear magnet. Using the daily closing chart, a confirmed daily close below 264.54 would open the door for a drop all the way down to the 200-day MA, currently at 241.66. There is now a 40-60 chance of that occurring, if and when the indexes drop down to their downside objectives. Any intraweek rally above last week's high at 285.00, would now give the bulls new ammunition. DD generated another red weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.95 will be seen this week. The stock has pivotal intraweek support at 73.77, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to the minor intraweek support at 72.45 and then again at 71.81. If that level is broken, there is mostly open air below to the 200-week MA, currently at 66.51. The stock did generate a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the 9-week low weekly close support at 74.64. Nonetheless, the break of that weekly close support was only by $.08 cents, meaning not yet convincing. Daily close support is at 73.89, which if broken would make the gap up at 70.03 a magnet. The 200-day MA is currently at 71.61, which will become the minimum target if a daily close sell signal is given. The monthly chart suggests that a drop down to the $65/$66 level is likely to occur. Any rally above 76.42 would begin to negate this outlook. ENG "inched" forward this past week, having made a new 13-trading day high and getting up to the 19-trading day high at .35. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .35 will be seen this week. None of this is yet meaningful, given that the bulls need to get above the .40 mark, in order to give at least a signal that a bottom has been found. Nonetheless, it has become evident that the bears have run out of ammunition and at these prices, only a negative fundamental piece of news will regenerate their ability to take the stock lower. This type of action has been seen on 6 different occasions over the past 15 years and on those occasions the stock ended up with a spike rally in which the stock at the very least doubled in price. Any drop below .30 would be a negative. LXRX generated a new 34-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.27 will be seen this week. On a monthly closing basis, there is decent to perhaps strong support at 1.32 and with the monthly close occurring a week from this coming Friday, it is safe to say that further downside at this time is likely to be limited. For now though, the bears are in control. The bulls needed the stock to close on Friday at 1.46, in order to prevent a new sell signal being given. The stock traded as high as 1.53 but the bulls were unable to prevent the level from breaking, meaning that at this time the bulls have no ammunition to take the stock higher. Nonetheless, the stock rallied 17% from Thursday's low to Friday's high and that does suggest that the bears are running out of ammunition as well. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 1.31. With the spike up action seen on Friday, it suggests that level is not going to get broken. A weekly close above 1.46 this coming Friday would be suggestive that the downtrend is over. PLNHF generated a red weekly close, meaning that the recent positive fundamental news is not yet good enough to generate anything more than a short-term uptrend. By the same token, the red close on Friday has made the 1.00 level (on a weekly closing basis) into an important and highly pivotal resistance, which if broken would be a midterm bull statement. The stock does show strong intraweek support at .60 and minor to perhaps decent at .70. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at .76, and that line had not been broken to the upside for 30 months, meaning that the line is now considered decent support on a daily closing basis. Intraweek resistance is found at 1.05 and pivotal at 1.20. The probabilities favor the stock trading between .76 and 1.05 for the next 2 weeks and then breaking out. SNDL is a cannabis stock but the company announced 2-weeks ago that they were also getting into the online liquor selling business. The news caused the stock to generate an immediate breakout, with the stock breaking above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.79, and this past week making a new 7-month high. Apart from a buy signal having been given on all charts, a failure signal against the bears has also occurred, suggesting that not only a bottom has now been built but that the stock is likely in a short-term bull trend. Having said that, the stock did get close to an established intraweek resistance level between 2.45 and 2.48 with a high this past week at 2.36. A negative reversal day occurred, suggesting the traders will try to build a new support level before trying to go higher. There is quite a bit of established support around the 1.95 level that should hold up. As such, it is expected the stock will trade between 1.95 and 2.48 for the next 2 weeks. A confirmed daily close below 2.00 is likely to generate a retest of the MA. TCEHY generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.19 will be seen this week. For the past 5 weeks, the bulls have been able to keep the stock above the 40.00 level even though the lows of 4 of the past 5 weeks have been 40.19, 40.28, 40.00 and last week at 40.19. Evidently there is support here that is unlikely to be broken unless the Chinese index heads lower. The chart of the Chinese index says that there is a 50-50 chance of going lower. Short-term intraweek pivotal resistance is found at 42.84. a break below 39.70 would be a short-term negative. A break below 38.88 would be a mid-term negative. Probabilities are 50-50. TNC made a new 14-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.90 will be seen this week. There is some intraweek support at 76.00 and again at 74.64 but those are all considered minor. The stock has an open up gap at 74.25 that is now a magnet. The 200-day MA is currently at 72.80 and that has to be considered the downside objective for this week or next. Any confirmed daily close below the MA line would suggest that the 200-week MA, currently at 71.08, would be seen. Further downside is not likely at this time. Nonetheless, if all of these levels break, it is possible that a drop down to the $55 could occur before year's end. For now though, the downside objective of the trade is the $71-$73 level. Any rally now above 78.25 would negate this outlook. TOL generated a 2nd red week in a row, which does confirm the failure signal against the bulls that was given last week. The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 77.35 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did generate a 2nd sell signal on the daily closing chart but does have daily close support at 77.70, at 76.42 and pivotal at 75.05. Any confirmed daily close below 75.05 would open the door for a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 65.49. In looking at the weekly chart, a close below 76.38 will generate a sell signal but only offer a drop down to 74.64. Any confirmed weekly close below 74.64 would give a $68 objective. Any daily close above 80.72 would negate this outlook. VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 11-month intraweek low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.53 will be seen this week. This move came off of positive fundamental news, suggesting that the bottom to this correction has now been found. As it is, the stock did get down to established intraweek support between 6.55 and 6.89 with a low this past week at 6.76. On a small negative note, the stock closed on Thursday at 7.53 and then generated a red daily close on Friday. The 7.56 level was the previous daily close support that when broken, brought the drop down to 6.76. This means that in spite of the 10% rally seen this past week, the bulls were unable to generate a failure signal against the bears. This does suggest that the first course of business on Monday will be to the downside, with the 7.20 level as the objective. Nonetheless, any daily close above 7.56 would generate new buying interest. ZLAB bulls failed to generate any follow through to the upside after the stock closed on the highs of the week the previous week. As such, the stock generated a red week and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.00 will be seen this week. On a positive note though, the 10-month low at 22.58 seen 5 weeks ago had not yet received a successful retest and this move down is likely to be that. It does need to be mentioned that important weekly close support is found at 25.30 and the bears failed to break that level on Friday, having traded as low as 25.00 but then closing at 25.76. As such, this move down has a higher probability of being a positive than a negative. Daily (and weekly) close support is found at 25.30. Any confirmed daily close below that level would be a negative. On the opposite side, the bulls need a daily close above 28.06 to generate a short-term uptrend.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.76. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .35. 3) VWDRY - Purchased at 6.88. Averaged long at 8.67 (23 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 7.395. 4) 5) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.39.
6) CAT - Shorted at 283.04. Stop loss now at 289.55. Stock closed on Friday at 279.15.
7) TNC - Shorted at 83.25. Stop loss now at 84.35. Stock closed on Friday at 76.74.
8) TOL - Shorted at 80.62. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 77.87.
9) DD - Shorted at 77.65. Stop loss at 78.84. Stock closed on Friday at 74.56.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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