Issue #825
August 20, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Correction Confirmed! More to come?

DOW Friday closing price - 34500
SPX Friday closing price - 4369
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14694
RUT Friday closing price - 1859

The indexes did what was expected of them this past week, having corrected back down to test the previous weekly close levels from where a short-term breakout of established resistance that occurred 4-weeks ago and from which the new 16-month highs were made. Over the past 4 weeks, the DOW has now seen a 4% correction, the SPX a 6% correction, the NASDAQ an 8.7% correction and the RUT a 9.6% correction from the recent highs. In the DOW and the SPX, the previous high weekly closes (seen as support) were not broken (In the DOW, the previous weekly closing high is at 34439 and the index closed at 34500. In the SPX, the previous weekly closing high is at 4367 and the index closed at 4369), meaning no failure signals against the bulls were given. Nonetheless, in the NASDAQ, a failure signal was given when the index closed at 14694 and the previous high weekly close was 14791. The RUT did not have the same breakout 4 weeks ago, as the other indexes had but did close slightly below the 200-week MA, currently at 1864 with a close at 1859.

What all of this means is that the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ, which was in favor of the latter for the past few years, has continued to favor the former, as it has done for the past 4 weeks. This is overall a short-term negative to the market as speculative investing is not being seen in a big way. Buying is being seen in the safe "meat-and-potato" companies at this time.

Having said that, the fact that the DOW and SPX did not give a failure signal on Friday, does suggest that a bit of a bounce back up over the next week or two, is the most probable scenario. September is known to seasonally be the strongest down month of the year but August is not usually a big down month, given that normally in August, the DOW drops about 1% and the NAZ drops about 4% in August. With the DOW having dropped 1.6% and the NAZ having dropped 7% in August, it suggests that a rally of about .6% in the DOW and about 3% in the NAZ could be seen over the next 2 weeks.

There are no possibly catalytic economic reports due out this week, meaning the traders are likely to be trading off of the charts alone. The indexes all closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows is likely to be seen this week (in the DOW that would be below 34263, in the SPX, that would be below 4335, in the NASDAQ that would be below 14557, and in the RUT, that would be below 1830). In the first 3, there is no intraweek support nearby, meaning that the daily closes will be important. In the DOW, there is important daily close support at 34418, in the SPX, it is at 4300, in the NASDAQ, it is at 14384. If any of those levels get broken, the expected bounce rally for the week will not occur. This is not to say that the indexes will get down to those levels, only that it is indicative if broken.

The chats suggest that this week will be calm and generally with an upside bias. If last week's lows are to be broken, it will likely happen on Monday or Tuesday. Nonetheless, this is one of those situations where follow through in the direction where the indexes closed may not occur. To begin with, the indexes closed on the high of the day on Friday and as such, it is expected the first course of action for the week (on Monday) is likely to be to the upside. Secondly, the SPX does show some intraweek support at 4328 and given that level of support was not broken on Friday, there is a fair chance that it will hold up unbroken this week.


GOLD generated a negative reversal that did quite a bit of damage to the chart (and to the bull story). Gold not only went above the previous weeks high and then closed below the previous week's low, but also closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $1914 will be seen this week. The big negative is that it also closed below the $1929 level, which had become strong and pivotal weekly close support level. This support level became pivotal support when it turned out to be the 19-week high weekly close from the $1618 low made in October, and was also the low weekly close for the past 7 weeks (since the new all-time high at $2072 was made. Breaking of that established level, suggests that the big-in-the-know traders, as well as the computers and algorithms used by the big institution and hedge funds, no longer believe that Gold will continue to go higher, at least not at this time. Nonetheless and as is always the case, confirmation of the break needs to occur this week, in order for the break to be believable enough to short Gold. Such confirmation will occur if Gold generates two daily closes this week below the $1913 and another close below $1929 this coming Friday. If all of that occurs, the chart suggests that a fall down to at least the $1848 level will be seen. Nonetheless, that support is old (from 3 years ago), meaning that the probabilities are not high that support will hold up. The more recent intraweek support is at $1810 and a retest of that support would likely be the goal for this move down. Any intraweek rally above $1943, followed by a weekly close above $1929, will negate this break.

OIL generated a red week but it was uneventful. Oil closed at 81.40 on Friday, meaning that it was slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 83.19 than below last week's low at 78.95. The one thing that will probably turn out to be a positive is that the close on Friday could end up being the retest of the breakout on the weekly close the week before, which was when Oil broke above the $81 level. If Oil generates a green weekly close on Friday, that is what it will be. If it generates a red close next Friday, it will mean that Oil will be in a sideways trading range scenario for the next 2-6 weeks. For this week and on a daily closing basis, the 79.38 level is short-term pivotal support and the 84.40 level is short-term pivotal resistance. Trading within that level will be a non-event.

DOLLAR generated another green weekly close (the 5th in a row) but did not do anything unexpected, meaning that no support or resistance levels were broken. It did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the chart suggests that it will likely be a negative reversal week as it closed at the recent downtrend channel line that is unlikely to be broken at this time, given that there has been no new fundamental news recently and none is expected for the next few weeks. The recent 99.58 weekly closing low, which has been the low weekly close since April 2022, has not been retested yet, meaning the Dollar should begin the retest of that low this week. Any daily close above 104.33 would change the scenario stated above. The Dollar closed at 103.43 on Friday.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week but I am planning to do quite a bit of trading. The trading is likely to be mostly liquidations (or short-covering) of the held stocks. I might do some day or very short-term trading as I am expecting to see some recovery occurring over the next 5-7 trading days. If I do any of that kind of trading, I will be giving those mentions on the message board if the stocks in mind reach levels where that kind of trade can be done.

By the same token, I will likely have new mentions in next week's newsletter.

<
Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

CAT made a new 13-day low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 271.11 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the low seen immediately after the earnings report (at 270.50) was not broken, meaning that so far this correction has simply been a retest of the fundamental price set after the report. Simply stated, the bears have not yet accomplished anything of note. If further downside is seen and the 270.50 level is broken, a retest of the previous all-time daily and weekly closing high at 264.54 would likely occur. A retest of that level would still not be an overall negative. By the same token, a closure of the runaway gap at 265.11 would suggest further downside down to the breakaway gap at 210.57 would become a target and that presently seems to be fundamentally not doable. As such, consideration can (and should be given) to covering the shorts this week (hopefully below 271.11). By the same token, further downside (at least down to the $265 level) is likely to occur at some point over the next 6 weeks, with the only question being "will it happen now or after a rally over the next two week to once again retest the all-time high at 293.88". That is the decision the charts are saying is "in play" this week.

DD generated a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing low this past week. Nonetheless, the stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting just about equal chances of going below last week's low at 74.20 than going above last week's high at 76.86. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 75.78. There is very minor intraweek resistance at 76.00 but above that, there is no resistance until 77.00 is reached. Overall, the charts do suggest that the stock will at some point over the next couple of months get down to the $70-$71 level with about a 50-50 chance of getting down to $67. As such and even if the stock generates a "bit" of a recovery rally over the next week or two, holding on to the short positions seems to be thing to do.

ENG continued to trade sideways, as it has done for the past 8 weeks. The $.30 level continues to be intraweek support that has held up during this entire time. The $.40 level is pivotal resistance. I do want to mention that in looking at the monthly charts for the past 15 years, the stock has been quite consistent in generating spike rallies every 3 years. The last rally was in January 2021, meaning that if the pattern continues, sometime over the next 5 months such a spike will occur again. Nonetheless and in every case, the rallies started to move up for a few months, meaning if that spike is to occur this time, the stock should start moving up soon. In also looking at the chart, the 2.75 level would seem to be the spike-rally high objective.

LXRX made a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low this past week. The stock is now showing 10 weeks in a row of red weekly closes, in which 41.5% of value has been lost since the last green weekly close occurred. By the same token, the stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.73 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it will be the first time during the last 10 weeks that the stock has gone above a previous week's high and that would be a sign that perhaps the downtrend is over. For that scenario to be confirmed, the bulls would need to generate a daily close above 1.80, in order for a failure signal against the bears to occur. In February 2022, the stock got down to the $2 level and since that time (78 weeks), the stock has traded below $2 for 14 weeks and above $2 for 64 weeks. The last time it traded below $2 for more than 2 weeks was from April to June 2022, which it traded below that price for 8 weeks. Right now, it has traded below that price for 4 weeks and with September being a seasonal down month, it is likely that it will continue to trade below $2 for at least another 4 weeks. Nonetheless, thereafter the stock should begin a rally that would have the 200-week MA, currently at 3.13, as the objective. Any drop below 1.31 (1.46 on a weekly closing basis), would negate this outlook. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65.

PLNHF made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low this past week, having broken the intraweek low at .50, which was made the 5th week of when it started trading back in 2018. The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .47 is expected to be seen this week. Chart-wise, there is absolutely no reason to hold on to the stock. Making a new all-time low is as big of a negative as can be. Nonetheless, fundamentally, the two companies that are following the stock have recently given upside objectives of $1.06 and of $1.54. In addition, the company has no debt and this is what is being said of the company in a Google search "Planet 13 is one of the best American Cannabis Operator Stocks". As such, holding or liquidating the stock should be based on whether you believe the fundamentals support holding on to the stock, or not.

TCEHY made a new 11-week intraweek low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.19 will be seen this week. The stock had been trading between 41.04 and 46.46 for 12 weeks but that trading range was broken the previous week and now broken for the second week in a row. By the same token and since December, the 38.88 level has been support and that level was not broken this past week. This clear break this week does favor that level now being tested. it will favor the bears for a retest of the pivotal support at 38.88. If 38.88 is broken, there is open air below to 31.54. The Chinese market closed at 17908 on Friday and if the 17613 level is broken, there is open air below to 16100. As such, if that level is broken, liquidating the positions in the stock should be done. To the upside, a break above 42.43 would give the bulls some positive action and a break above 44.23 would change the chart to favor the bulls.

TNC has dropped 8.7% from the all-time intraweek high made 2 weeks ago. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 79.98 will be seen this week. It is very important to note that in spite of the stock making 2 new all-time highs 2 weeks in a row, the bulls were unable to break the previous all-time weekly closing high at 85.35 or even break the rest of that high at 85.25. The high weekly close made on this occasion was 84.95. On the previous 2 occasions that these highs were made, a 15.8% and a 34% correction occurred. On a daily closing basis, a close below 78.68 would give a sell signal that would offer a potential drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 71.18. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 81.62. Based on what the indexes are likely to do this week, a drop down to 79.36 is likely to be seen and then a rally above 81.62 and up to the $85 is the most likely scenario. This suggest the best course of action at this time is to cover the shorts below 80.00 and re-short the stock around $85, with the September seasonal down move in mind.

TOL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and the closing convincingly below the previous week's low. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.51 will be seen this week. The stock dropped 8.6% in value this past week (from high to low of the week) and that is a statement that the stock has found a top to this rally, at least for the next 6-8 weeks. Nonetheless, the short-term objective of this move down is not likely to be more than a drop down to the previous all-time daily and weekly closing high at 74.61. The stock could fall more than that in September, but for the next couple of weeks, a rally back up to at least the $80-82 level is likely to be seen. This means that consideration to getting out of the short positions this week should be given.

VET generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.94 will be seen this week. The action seen does suggest that the high seen the previous week at 15.45 may be the high for the next few weeks. Nonetheless, that is not yet clear as the stock was able to stay above the 13.95 level this week and that is a short-term pivotal area on the daily closing chart. As long as it closes above that level, the bears will not have any chart ammunition to take it lower. Nonetheless, any confirmed daily close below 13.95, would suggest that at least a drop down to the 13.00 level will be seen. The bulls do have a problem at this time and that is that the 200-day MA is currently at 14.58, and that line was tested successfully 2 weeks ago with the daily closing high at 15.00. The stock has been below that line for 9 months and that usually suggests that the line will not be broken until the 4th retest of the line occurs. That means that the stock is likely to trade sideways, with a slight bearish bias, for at least another 4-8 weeks. As such, consideration can be given to liquidating the positions around 14.50 and looking to buy them back after September and probably around the $12 level. Any daily close above 15.00 would negate this outlook. A daily close above 15.00 would generate an upside target of $17.

VWDRY made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.48 will be seen this week., The stock has now had 4 red weekly closes in a row and has dropped 21% in value over this period of time. The earnings report the previous week did give the bears added ammunition to help the stock head lower. There is no intraweek support below until the 7.12 level is reached. Additional support is found at 6.89 and decent to strong support is found at 6.55. In looking at all the charts (including the monthly chart), a drop down to the 7.00-7.12 level now seems to be a high probability. Thereafter, the monthly chart suggests that the stock is likely to trade back up to 9.31 before the end of the year. With the stock closing on Friday at 7.56, the bulls are facing further downside of about $.50 and recovery of about $1.70 per share, based on the charts for the rest of the year. That does suggest that holding on to the positions is the "thing to do". Overall, the fundamental picture "strongly" favors the bulls as the 12-month forecast by the rating companies, offers a median target of $59, with the low target being $41 and the high target being $105. That means that the fundamental picture offers a close to 800% appreciation in price by August 2024 (using the median estimate).

ZLAB made a new 10-month intraweek low but made a new 57-month weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.62 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, the stock still shows support at 22.52 and at 20.98. The weakness being seen has been driven by the Chinese market heading lower and then exacerbated a week ago with a lower than expected earnings report. Nonetheless, the fundamental picture remains highly positive with rating companies offering a median upside objective of $71 by the end of the year. Having said that and using the charts, the stock is in a very precarious position as the break of weekly close support at 23.75 needs to be negated this week (closed on Friday at 22.72) and the last two intraweek support levels need to hold up, or at least the 20.98 level not broken. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 27.74. A break of that resistance would mean that the downtrend is over. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 25.30. A daily close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears, which would "suggest" that the downtrend is over.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.72.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .33.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 7.54.

4) - Purchased at 3.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65.

5) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.24.

6) CAT - Shorted at 262.17. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 273.80 on Friday.

7) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 41.09.

8) AMZN - Covered shorts at 135.95. Averaged short at 133.325. Loss on the trade of $525 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

9) TOL - Averaged short at 73.43 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 76.38.

10) TNC - Shorted at 81.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 80.30.

11) PAAS - Liquidated at 15.25. Purchased at 14.30. Profit on the trade of $95 per 100 shares.

12) DDD - Shorted at 77.65. Stop loss at 78.84. Stock closed on Friday at 75.40.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Feb 19, 2023 Newsletter

View Feb 26, 2023 Newsletter

View Mch 05, 2023 Newsletter

View Mar 12, 2023 Newsletter

View Mar 19, 2023 Newsletter

View Mar 26, 2023 Newsletter

View Apr 02, 2023 Newsletter

View Apr 09, 2023 Newsletter

View Apr 16, 2023 Newsletter

View Apr 23, 2023 Newsletter

View Apr 30, 2023 Newsletter

View May 07, 2023 Newsletter

View May 14, 2023 Newsletter

View May 28, 2023 Newsletter

View Jun 04, 2023 Newsletter

View Jun 11, 2023 Newsletter

View Jun 18, 2023 Newsletter

View Jun 25, 2023 Newsletter

View Jul 02, 2023 Newsletter

View Jul 09, 2023 Newsletter

View Jul 16, 2023 Newsletter

View Jul 23, 2023 Newsletter

View Aug 06, 2023 Newsletter

View Aug 13, 2023 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.