Issue #826
September 3 20, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Retest of Recent Highs before September down move begins?
DOW Friday closing price - 34837
Over the past 2 weeks, the indexes have generated the expected end of August rally. The DOW has rallied 2.4%, the SPX has rallied 4%, the NASDAQ has rallied 6.1% and the RUT has rallied 4.5%. The indexes did close out the week in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 35070, SPX at 4541, NAZ at 15618, and RUT at 1926).
Having said that, the bulls were unable to break any resistance levels of note and as such, this rally to retest the 4-month rally highs (from the March lows) has been all "as expected". August has usually been a seasonal up month but has been (in the past) a precursor to the seasonality of September, which is usually the strongest down month of the year.
The economic reports that came out this past week were slightly better than expected but not sufficiently so, as to change the expectations for September. There is still one report of note to come out for the month, in the form of the inflation report (CPI) that is scheduled for Wednesday September 13th. No expectations are yet available but last month was .2% and anything above that would be a negative.
It is expected that the traders will start anticipating the report and the seasonality of September this coming week. This means that the indexes are likely to go above last week's highs but then generate a red weekly close next Friday. The NASDAQ is evidently the index to watch as it has been the leader-to-the-upside the past 2 weeks. Using the daily closing chart, the index has resistance between 15425 and 15561. The index closed on Thursday at 15501 and on Friday at 15490. As such, the chances are decent that no further upside will be seen (on a daily closing basis) any day this week. If there is any further upside, it should be no more than 70 points. A daily close above 15561, will give the bulls some new ammunition. To the downside, any confirmed daily close in the NASDAQ below 15208, will begin the weaken the chart and give the bears an edge.
It is unlikely that anything of great consequence will happen this week (either to the upside or downside), given that the traders will be waiting to the inflation report to make any decisions of consequence. Nonetheless, this week should give either the bulls or the bears an edge that will show what they are thinking, which will either be confirmed or denied with the CPI number the following week. Based on recent history of economic reports, it is unlikely that any big surprises in the CPI report will come out. That should mean that September will end up being the down month that the seasonality of the month has shown in the past. Downside targets for the month (on a weekly closing basis) are as follows: DOW at 13025, SPX at 4204, NASDAQ at 13565, andRUT at 1800.
OIL generated a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 86.06 will be seen this week. There was a fundamental reason for the rally as demand has outstripped supply, especially since Russia decided to cut its production of Oil. Chart-wise, the bulls were successful in closing above 2 weekly close resistances at 83.76 and 85.05, which if confirmed this week (likely), would open the door for a rally up to the next resistance level at 87.06. Nonetheless, this resistance level is 12-years old and not very likely to hold up, or be respected. On a more recent basis, there is open air above to the 90.19/90.39 level. Decent and pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 93.74. To the downside and on a "daily closing basis", a confirmed close below 84.40, would negate this breakout.
DOLLAR generated a new 13-week weekly closing high and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.24 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the "unexpected" strength seen the past 2 weeks, the bulls have not yet been able to generate any meaningful break of resistance. The most recent intraweek high is at 104.48 (seen the previous week), but the intraweek high seen 3 months ago was at 104.70, and that high needs to be broken before it can be said the bulls have done anything of consequence. If that does happen though, there is still intraweek resistance at 105.63 and then pivotal at 105.88. The chart suggests that something fundamentally positive needs to occur for these resistance levels to be broken, and that is not likely to happen for the next 7 trading days. As such, the probabilities favor the downside this week, with a potential drop down to as low at 101.92. The week after, when the inflation report comes out, is likely to be pivotal.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week given that I did give mentions in the message board this past week near the end of the week. The portfolio is full at this time but if the index market does what "I believe" it is going to do, I will add to those short positions or, if find some other stock to short, I will put that mention out on the message board.
By the same token, I will likely have new mentions in next week's newsletter.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 8/1 Profit of $9,338 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) 3 Closed out profitable trades for August per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
VET (long) $180 Total Profit for August, per 100 shares and after commissions $1,369 Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
NONE
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
PAAS (long) $153 Total Loss for August, per 100 shares, including commissions $1.140 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1
NONW
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
PLNHF (long) $59 SNDL (long) $9 Total $69 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1
TNC (short) $19
TOL (short) $321 DD (short) $32 CAT (short) $321 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
TCEHY (long) $453 Total $3.050 Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Loss of $2,753
Status of account/portfolio for 2023, as of 8/31
Profit of $6,586 per 100 shares.
CAT made a new all-time weekly closing high but the potential breakout was not confirmed as the bulls failed to do the same on the daily closing chart, or the intraweek chart. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 287.07 is expected to be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance at 287.66 and then open air to the all-time intraweek high at 293.88. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 283.22 and then at 288.65. the stock closes at 283.25 on Friday, suggesting that Tuesday's close could be indicative. If it closes red on Tuesday, the bears will get a bit of new ammunition. If it closes green on Tuesday, the opposite will occur. Any daily close below 276.44 will give the bears a clear edge.
DD generated a new 18-month weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 78.07 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on the same scenario as CAT, the breakout was not confirmed on the daily closing chart or the intraweek chart. There is a small mountain of intraweek resistance between 78.40 and 78.98 (5 previous highs there over the past 18 months). On a daily closing basis, the resistance is between 77.79 and 78.08 and with it closing on Friday at 77.97, it does suggest that Tuesday's close is going to be indicative and short-term important. A daily close above 78.08 would open the door for a rally to the $71. A daily close below 77.04 would begin to give the bears some ammunition. ENG continued to trade sideways, as it has done for the past 10 weeks. On a weekly closing basis, the stock has generated closes at .32, at .317, at .33, at .334, and at .34 over the past 5 weeks. As such, it is evident that nothing has been happening. The stock did report earning 3 weeks ago and that did not help the bulls nor the bears. This means that at this time, the probabilities favor more of the same. The .30 and .40 levels are pivotal. A daily close above or below either one, will likely generate movement in that direction. LXRX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 17.7% rally seen the previous 2 weeks do suggest that perhaps the bottom to this downtrend is over and that the fall this past week will end up being the required/needed retest of the recent 14-month low at 1.59. If last week's low at 1.67 is broken but not the 1.59 low, and a green close occurs next Friday, it will likely be the needed retest of the low, which in turn would bring in new buying interest. A break above the recent high at 1.93 would offer an upside objective of 2.70. A break below 1.59 would offer a 1.31 objective. PLNHF made a new 23-week intraweek and weekly closing high. It close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .90 will be seen this week. The reason for the rally was that the company agreed to buy VidaCann for $48 million dollars and that allows the company to enter and be competitive in the Florida market. This move did generate a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly chart. In fact, on the daily chart, the stock closed convincingly above the 200-day MA (currently at .775), which is a line that had not been broken to the upside for 25 months (since July 2021). Nonetheless and in spite of the positive action seen this past week, the bulls need to do a bit more to convince the traders that the stock is on a new uptrend. The bulls need a weekly close above .987 to generate a buy signal of longer-term consequence. A weekly close above 1.11 would also generate a failure signal against the bears of consequence. With the new fundamental picture now in place, it can be said the downtrend is over. TCEHY generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday, above the weekly close support level at 41.25 that got broken 3 weeks ago (closed on Friday at 42.25). The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 42.84 will be seen this week. There is open air above until the 44.88 level is reached. By the same token, the 200-day MA is currently at 43.87 and that is the only level that has a high degree of probability of being reached. To the downside, there is some new intraweek support found at 41.24. A break of that level would give back to the bears, the slight short-term edge that the bulls obtained this week. TNC moved above the previous week's high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 84.12 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls did not accomplish anything of note as this move above a previous week's high is likely to be the required/needed retest of the all-time intraweek high at 87.53. On a daily closing basis, there is a fair amount of resistance around the 84.30, which should not be broken. To the downside, any daily close below 79.96 would trigger new selling interest. TOL made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 84.57 will be seen this week. The news regarding new communities and homes being built by the company continued to come out almost every day this past week and is likely to be the reason that the stock outperformed the index market. This new all-time high suggests that the short positions should have been covered last week but given that there is a fair chance that a seasonal down move in the market begins this week, I held on to the short positions. The new all-time highs across the board has "committed" the bulls to taking the stock higher immediately, given that the breakout was only by $.31 cents and any daily and weekly close below 83.52 would generate a failure signal that would bring in new selling interest. As such, Tuesday's action could be pivotal to the stock. VWDRY generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red. Nonetheless, the stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range and the red weekly close was only by $.02 cents, meaning that the reversal may not generate any further downside. If the stock does go below the previous week's low at 7.60, it could end up being the required/needed retest of the recent 10-month low at 7.40. On a positive note and on a daily closing basis, the stock did generate a successful retest of that low, having gone down to 7.60 on Thursday and then a green day on Friday and closing above Thursday's high. The fundamental picture continues to show improvement and at these prices and with analysts rating objectives that give a median upside objective of $56 over the next year, it is possible that the worst to the downside has been seen and that a recovery rally will now begin. Based on the daily chart, the short-term objective is a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 9.20. Any move now below 7.40 would offer a 6.89/7.12 objective. ZLAB generated a "key" positive reversal, having made a new 10-month intraweek low and then turning around to close green, above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.82 will be seen this week. What makes this key reversal even more important is that it came off of positive news (the company on Wednesday received breakthrough designation on one of its drugs). Chart-wise, a lot of good things happened: 1) the stock had made a new 59-month low weekly close the previous week and the close on Friday at 26.12 not only gave a failure signal against the bears by closing above that price (at 23.75) but also gave a second failure signal by closing above the most recent low weekly close support at 25.30. 2) the stock gapped up on Wednesday after the report and if that is followed by another gap this week, a breakaway/runaway gap scenario based on news will occur. Such a scenario will strongly support a bull recovery run that would have an immediate objective of 31.30. To finish it off, the Chinese market rallied on Sunday night and gave a failure signal against the bears as well. The index has rallied 6.7% from the lows and did close on the highs of the day, suggesting that tonight (Monday), further upside above Sunday's high at 18929 will be seen today. There is an important gap down at 19030, which if closed, would totally negate the recent drop down to the 17753 level.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.10. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .32. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 7.92. 4) 5) VET - Liquidated at 14.52. Loss on the trade 0f $131 per 100 shares (3 mentions).
6) CAT - Covered shorts at 270.40. Shorted at 262.17. Loss on the trade of $823 per 100 shares.
7) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.25.
8) CAT - Shorted at 283.04. Stop loss at 287.76. Stock closed on Friday at $286.25.
9) TOL - Covered shorts at 74.600. Averaged short at 73.43. Loss on the trade $234 per 100 shares (2 mentions.
10) TNC - Covered shorts at 80.67. Shorted at 81.20. Profit on the trade of $53 per 100 shares.
11) TOL - Shorted at 80.62. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 83.83.
12) DD - Shorted at 77.65. Stop loss at 78.84. Stock closed on Friday at 77.97.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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