Issue #831
October 8, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears lose their edge. Bulls likely to see a recovery rally!
DOW Friday closing price - 33407
The index market all generated a rally on Friday after all the important economic reports for the week had come out. The DOW and the RUT still generated a red weekly close but the SPX generated a positive reversal week and the NASDAQ confirmed the positive reversal that occurred the previous week, having generated a 2nd green weekly close in a row. All indexes, with the exception of the RUT closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside closed above last week's highs (DOW at 33547, SPX at 4234, and NAZ at 15021) will be seen this week. The RUT closed very slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range but that also suggests a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 171782 than going below last week's low at 1709.
It is important to note that this rally all happened from established intraweek support levels, such as in the DOW between 32800 and 39000 (low was 32846), the SPX between 4208 and 4222 (low was 4216), the NASDAQ between 14384 and 14442 (low was 14504) and RUT between 1695 and 1704 (low was 1709). Giving even more meaning to the rally was the fact that the Jobs report on Friday came out higher than expected (which was a negative to the market) and the indexes opened lower but then reversed to the upside to have the biggest up day for the week.
With the exception of the SPX, the indexes have open air above for another 2-4% rally. The SPX does have some resistance at 4333 but it is minor in nature.
There is only one report of consequence due out this week and it is CPI on Wednesday. It is expected to come out at 3%. It is unlikely to be way out of line and therefore not likely to have much of an effect. The earnings quarter does start on Friday with C, JPM and WFC reporting. The earnings quarter is likely to be somewhat catalytic this quarter but the reports this week and not likely to have much of an effect to the overall index market.
Based on the action this past week, it is expected that the bulls will have the edge and that some recovery from this recent correction is going to occur. The upside objectives of such a recovery are as follows: DOW to 34000-34280, the SPX to 4400-4448, NASDAQ to 15265/15284, and RUT to 1872-1905.
Evidently and to the downside, new lows below the recent lows (DOW at 32846, SPX at 4216, NAZ at 14432, and RUT at 1709) would negate the expected rally and give a clear edge to the bears.
OIL took a strong downturn this past week, having dropped $9.21 from the previous week's close to last week's low. The bulls did manage to prevent the fall from having trend changing consequences when they managed to close Oil at 82.79, which is a weekly close area between 82.52 and 83.19, from which the breakout occurred to $95 occurred. Nonetheless, the bulls needed the overall market rally on Friday, to prevent Oil closing lower (and giving a failure signal against the bulls), as the low for the week at 81.50 was seen that day. Oil did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the 81.50 low will be broken this week. Nonetheless, the first course of action for the week and on Monday, is likely to be to the upside and above Friday's high at 83.28. There is important and likely short-term pivotal resistance at 84.89, which if broken would likely generate new buying interest and a rally back up to the $88 level. If not broken, the bears will likely come back in and generate new lows below 81.50. If that occurs, a drop as low as 78.95 could be seen. Any daily close below 78.89 would be a chart and trend changer. For the time being (this coming week), the chart suggests a trading range between $79 and $85 will occur.
DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 105.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and as I stated last week, there has been no support built to the downside as the Dollar has moved straight up over the past 11-weeks. The Dollar had/has an upside objective of 107.99 and did get up to 107.33 this past week. The downside objective is 105.12 (105.21 on a daily closing basis). The chart now suggests that for the month of October, the Dollar will trade between $105 and $108.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I took a look at over 60 stocks, trying to find a stock to purchase for this expected rally period. Unfortunately, I was not able to find any stocks to purchase that offered a good risk/reward ratios. The stocks that could be purchased did not offer enough profit to overcome the risk and the stocks that did offer a good risk/reward ratios, did not offer good probability ratings. As such, I have no new mentions this week.
Nonetheless and talking about the stocks presently held long, there are two stocks that should be considered as a purchase and one of the stocks "should be" purchased. The stocks are PLNH and VWDRY, with the former being the "should be purchased" and the latter being "should be considered". Check out the updates below on those 2 stocks.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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ENG generated a red week and did go below the previous week's low (as expected due to the close near the low of the week the previous week). Once again, the stock got down close to the .30 cent support level with a low this past week at .30. With the stock closing near the low of the week, further downside below that level is expected to be seen. By the same token, the .30 cent level has been seen 11 times in the last 6 months and closed on or near the low of the week on 6 different occasions and it has not yet been broken even once. One thing that has changed is that now, any break above .36 (not the older .40) will bring in new buying interest. LXRX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek low at .96 and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.09 will be seen this week. This green weekly close now means that there is a double bottom at 1.07 on the weekly closing chart. It is not yet a clear double bottom as the close on Friday was at 1.08. Nonetheless, the negation of the new all-time intraweek low does suggest it will be a clear double bottom after the action this week. Another positive seen is that the .96 low made Tuesday was then likely retested successfully with the .98 low seen on Friday and the key reversal seen that day. Key pivotal midterm resistance level is at 1.26. PLNH generated a red weekly close and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .78 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at .74 and that was the line that got broken to the upside 6 weeks ago, which is a line that had not been broken to the upside for 24 months. As such, a retest of that line is a normal and healthy event. On an intraweek basis, there is support at .70. With the positive fundamental changes that have occurred recently, this is now a stock ready to be added to, using a .66 stop loss and having a short-to-midterm objective at 1.88. As such, purchasing the stock near .74 and using a stop loss at .66 and having a 1.88 objective offers a 14-1 risk/reward ratio. SNDL generated another red weekly close (3rd in a row) 1.62 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the 1.73/1.81 area where previous high weekly closes are located. That means, the bulls need to generate a close above those 2 levels next Friday, to negate the failure signal. Another negative is that the stock closed on Tuesday below the 200-day MA, currently at 1.73, and followed that up with closes below the line every day thereafter. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 1.48, a break of that level will give the bears back the control they had over the past 2+ years until September 11th when they broke the line. There has been no negative news that has come out and given that the index market (and the RUT) are likely to go up this week, I believe the bulls will recover. The 1.84 level is now short-term pivotal resistance. Should that level be broken, the bulls will get the edge back. TCEHY generated a key positive reversal, having made a new 10-month intraweek low and then turning around to close green and above the previous week's high. The stock closed near the high, suggesting further upside above last week at 39.39 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until 42.84 is reached, meaning the stock could easily rally to that level if the Chinese market continues the rally that was seen on Friday. In using the daily closing chart though, there is some clear resistance at the $40 demilitarized zone (39.70 - 40.30). The chart does suggest that the viable upside objective is the $42 level and given that the Chinese market has shown overall weakness that is not likely to go away even if a short-term rally occur, I will be looking to liquidate the positions above $42 and take the loss). Any drop now below last week's low at 37.69, would be strongly negative. TNC generated a green week and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 76.92 will be seen this week. For some unexplained reason (no new news), the bears were unable to generate any new correction lows even though the stock closed on the low of the week the previous week and the indexes did show weakness at the beginning of the week. This does suggest that the stock is now fairly priced. The stock did stay above the 200-day MA, currently at 73.74, even though the stock did get down to the line on 2 different occasions over the past 2 weeks. A retest of that successful test of the line is likely to be seen this week. The 10-minute chart suggests that a drop down to the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 75.12 could be seen before further upside occurs. As such, I will be looking to cover the shorts around that price. Upside target of this likely recovery rally is at least 80.52. TOL continues lower, having made a 5th red weekly close. The fundamental news that has come out does not favor the Housing industry. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 69.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and with the index market likely to rally, as well as the stock reaching the first of 2 downside objectives (the $70 level), the probabilities of reaching the 2nd level at 67.35, which is also where the 200-day MA is currently at (at 67.34) has been reduced. The key level to watch this week is 72.16. A break above that level would suggest the stock will not be heading down to the MA. By the same token and closing at 70.98, the risk/reward ratio does not favor the bears at this time, meaning that any drop down to the $70 demilitarized zone (which should be seen) may be reason to consider taking profits. VWDRY made another new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing low, while at the same time breaking an established intraweek support level at 6.57 with a low made this week at 6.23. Nonetheless and because the index market rallied on Friday, the stock did generate a key reversal "day" on the daily chart as it made its weekly low on Friday and then closing above Thursday's high and on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week on Monday will be above Friday's high at 6.52. The stock did close very slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 6.23 than above last week's high at 6.88. Nonetheless, if the indexes do rally (as expected), that slight probability will not occur. There is no resistance above until 7.19, meaning that it is not all that likely that the bulls will be able to make any kind of a statement other than perhaps a small recovery rally. By the same token, if the stock does get above 7.19, the bulls will get their edge back and have a chance of getting back to the 9.00 level, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. To the downside and below last week's low at 6.23 and below 6.20 (old intraweek low), there is open air down to 5.69. There is no fundamental reason, or recent news, that supports the stock being down at this price. In fact, the recent news has been mostly positive. As such and if the indexes don't turn downward, this stock has a high degree of probability of rallying from here and in a big way. ZLAB made a new 11-month intraweek low but then the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.31 will be seen this week. The stock did close red for the 4th week in a row but in spite of the new multi-month intraweek low made, both the weekly close support at 22.72 and at 23.75 hold up, suggesting that the worst might be over. This was also supported by the fact that the Chinese index generated an unexpected rally on Friday. There is intraweek resistance at 25.11 (which should be seen this week) and short-term pivotal at 25.68. A rally above 25.68 would suggest this downside move is over and would open the door for an immediate rally to 27.98. Evidently, any move below last week's low at 22.35 would be a strong negative.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.85. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .308. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (23 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 6.51. 4) 5) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 39.31.
6) CAT - Covered shorts at 263.74. Shorted at 283.04. Profit on the trade of $1930 per 100 shares.
7) TNC - Shorted at 83.25. Stop loss now at 78.35. Stock closed on Friday at 76.20.
8) TOL - Shorted at 80.62. Stop loss now at 79.35. Stock closed on Friday at 70.98.
9) DD - Covered shorts at 73.00. Shorted at 77.65. Profit on the trade of $465 per 100 shares.
10) SCCO - Covered shorts at 72.63. Shorted at 79.94. Profit on the trade of $731 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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