Issue #839
December 10, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in control. Seasonal tendency continues to be seen.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 36247
SPX Friday Closing Price - 4604
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 16084
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1880

The indexes continued higher but the gains, based on the weekly closes, were minor in nature. The DOW closed 2 points higher than the previous week, the SPX closed 10 points higher, the NASDAQ closed 85 points higher and the RUT closed 18 points higher. Having said that, the RUT continued to lead the way as percentage-wise, it closed up the most. The indexes did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 36296, SPX at 4609, NAZ at 16100 and RUT at 1888) are expected to be seen this week.

The Jobs report last week came in higher than expected. It does mean the economy is doing well but it also means that the Fed will not be so eager to start lowering rates, as many traders have thought would happen. As such, the bulls were unable to do very much as the report reflected some positive and some negatives for the near future. This week, the Inflation report (CPI) comes out on Tuesday and the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. The latter will not have any surprises but the traders will key on Powell's speech immediately thereafter, to see if the positive Jobs report has made any difference to their thinking. The former report does come out prior to Powell talking and it could have an effect. If inflation increases, it will be a negative to the market and to the Fed's possibility of starting to lower rates in May. If it comes in lower, it could do the exact opposite. As such, the CPI report could be catalytical. Core CPI is expected to come in at .3% (last month it was at .2%).

After these to reports come out, the rest of the month will be void of any reports that could be catalytical to the market. As such, the action immediately after Wednesday's Fed Speech (at 2:30 pm) will determine whether December will be a seasonal up month or not.

As far as what can be expected for the rest of the month, if there are no surprises, the probabilities favor higher prices but limited in nature. The DOW could go up as high as 36952 but will begin to encounter quite a bit of selling starting around 36338 (100 points higher). The SPX could go as high as 4818 but it will encounter quite a bit of selling around 4700 (96 points higher). The NASDAQ could go as high as 16764 but will begin to encounter quite a bit of selling between 16454 and 16573 and lastly, the RUT could go as high as the 2000 level but will encounter quite a bit of selling around 1920. As you can see by these numbers, the upside is quite limited.

To the downside and if any of the reports this week are negative to the market, these are the levels that if broken, would generate new selling and possibly/probably cause December to lose its seasonality aspect this year. In the DOW, any daily close below 35630. In the SPX, any daily close below 4515. In the NASDAQ, any daily close below 15508, and in the RUT, any daily close below 1807.

As you can see by these numbers on both sides of the coin (for example, the SPX with 4700 and 4500 being the levels and the index closing at 4600 on Friday), the outlook for December is quite limited.

Wednesday will likely be the determining factor.


GOLD has a week of great note, having generated a key negative reversal week in which it made a new all-time high at $2155 and the closed red and below the previous week's low at $2001 (closed at $1998). From high to low, Gold fell a total of $160 (8% in one week). In addition, it generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at $2024. The action means that a top to this rally has been made, at least until some new positive fundamental change occurs. There was one "slightly" positive-for-the-short-term note that occurred and that is that it closed at the same price that it broke out from originally, which was $1998, meaning that the probabilities do favor Gold moving back up to at least the $2024 level on a weekly closing basis and as high as $2073 on an intraweek basis. Having said that though, there have been 3 other occasions where this same scenario occurred (new all-time highs, followed by a big fall and a negative reversal week) and on each of those occasions, Gold was only above to get up to within 73-92 points off of the intraweek high. That means that using the $2155 intraweek high made on this occasion, the closest that Gold could get back up to is $2082 or $2063. There is presently no intraweek support until $1935 is reached and that suggests that Gold could start the week on a decently strong down note. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that Gold will get down that low this week (or during the entire month of December). As such, the chart does suggest that Gold could be in a trading range for the next 4 weeks, between $1960 and $2060.

OIL continued its downward fall, having made another red weekly close (7th in a row) and closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 68.81 will be seen this week. Oil has dropped a total of 23.5% over this period of time. Having said that, Oil did generate a green daily close on Friday and with it having closed at 69.38 on Wednesday, at 69.34 on Thursday, the established and decent to strong area of daily close resistance between 66.74 and 70.04 did hold up. This does suggest that this drop is almost over. Oil did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 68.81 will be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 66.80, which if broken would change the chart picture. It is doubtful that it will happen and some form of recovery should be seen this week. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 74.73 that is unlikely to be broken. As such, this week's trading range might be something like $68 to $74.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week but I will be looking to add some additional positions to the existing held stock CPRT. See update on the Held Stocks section for details.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
CPRT generated another red week, having dropped 5.5% in value this past week. There was no news to support the fall, suggesting it was all chart oriented. The stock is likely in the process of testing the previous all-time daily and weekly closing highs at 46.87 and with it closing this past week at 47.39, any daily or weekly green close from here on in will be seen as a successful retest of that level. This retest of the previous high is normal and if successful, will give the bulls added ammunition for continuing the uptrend and make new highs. It is also important to note that there was an open gap at 47.32 that had no reason to stay open and it was closed on Friday. Probabilities favor the stock going below last week's low at 47.08 and turning around. In fact, I might add positions on such a move.

ENG generated an inside week and an unchanged weekly close, meaning that nothing of any consequence occurred. The bears remain in charge. A confirmed daily close above 2.00 will take away control from the bears but otherwise, the outlook suggests further downside is likely to occur.

GCI generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.98 will be seen this week. Pivotal resistance is found at 2.09 and short-term pivotal support is at 1.83. Probabilities do favor the upside with a target of 2.34 to be seen before the end of the month.

INTC generated a 2nd red weekly close but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.32 will be seen this week. The stock did run up against the 200-week MA, currently at 45.22, with a high 3 week's ago at 45.34. As such, this down move was not unexpected. Nonetheless, if the stock does get above last week's high this week and the bulls fail to get above 45.34 before another red weekly close occurs, more profit taking will be seen, with a downside target of at least 39.20, if not 38.01. As such, the stock should be closely watched during the next week or two. The stock should get up to at least 43.64 this week but that level, on a daily closing basis, is going to be indicative as to whether more upside is to be seen or not.

LXRX made a new 25-trading day high and in the process, generated a new buy signal on the daily closing chart. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.33 will be seen this week. The stock shows intraweek resistance at 1.43 and pivotal resistance at 1.51. The stock has built a double bottom on the daily closing chart at 1.00/1.01 and it has been retested successfully, meaning there is no reason for weakness to be seen this month. As such, the month will be all about the resistance levels above and whether they will be broken or not. Reaching the 1.43 level is a high probability. From there, it is a bit of a mystery right now. If the 1.51 level is broken, minimum upside should be 1.80. Any daily close now below 1.14 would put everything aside until January.

MRNA generated another green week (4th in a row) but it was only by $.49 cents, meaning that the buying interest is limited, especially considering that there is nothing but open air above for $15. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 77.40 than going above last week's high at 84.12. It bears mentioning that there was big put option buying by large investors on Friday and that normally means that there is some news due to come out and given that it was "put" purchases, it could mean that the news is negative. It also bears mentioning that for the past 2 months, these same option buyers and sellers have had a wide trading range between $50 to the downside and $130 to the upside as the targets for the stock. Chart-wise, any break below 74.50 would be seen as a negative at this time. Any new rally high (above 84.12) would be seen as a positive. Due to this put option news, this stock must be watched closely this week.

NEM did not follow through to the upside (as expected) and generated an inside week with a red weekly close, and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 38.76 will be seen this week. This move was all due to the selloff seen in the Gold market. On a daily closing basis, there is support at 39.02, which if broken would take some ammunition away from the bulls. Intraweek support is minor to decent at 37.84. Some intraweek resistance will now be found at 39.32 and a bit stronger at 40.10. Evidently, with Gold now seemingly finding a top to the rally, this stock is now not likely to make new rally highs above the recent above the recent 41.30 level, meaning that any rally back up to the $40 level should be considered for liquidating and taking profits on the trade.

PLNH made a new 3-week intraweek high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .925 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at .93 was not broken, meaning a bit more work in building the support base is likely to occur. There is intraweek support at .77 that should hold up this week. The chart does suggest higher prices are coming, with the 1.00-1.03 level as the immediate (next week or two) as the target. There is a lot of established resistance at 1.00 that seems unlikely to get broken in December, but if it is broken, it would be a strong sign of further upside to come. For the time being and likely for the entire month, the stock should trade between .75 and 1.05.

VWDRY did not follow through to the upside (as expected) and generated an inside week with a red weekly close, and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.90 will be seen this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 8.60 and a retest of that line is highly likely to occur. On an intraweek basis, there is short-term pivotal support at 8.48 that should not get broken. The chart remains short-term bullish with a possibility of a rally before the end of the year all the way up to 9.75.

ZLAB generated an uneventful week though it did generate another red close. Nonetheless, the red close was only by $.21 cents and the pivotal intraweek support at 25.75 held up (in spite of the continued weakness in the Chinese market). The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.88 will be seen this week. It is expected that the Chinese market will generate some upside over the next 3 weeks and that will give the bulls a chance to rally the stock to the levels the chart suggests will be seen. The 200-week MA is currently at 29.37 and that level has been tested on 3 prior occasions without success. This time, it is likely to be broken. A rally above 29.39 will break the most recent intra week resistance, as well as the MA line. A rally above the 4-month intraweek high at 30.67 would be a break of the line as well as a buy signal of note. A drop below 25.75 would negate this positive chart outlook.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.29.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.90.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (23 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 8.99.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 2.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.25.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 1.96

6) MRNA - Averaged long at 70.63 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 80.32.

7) PLNH - Averaged long at 1.526 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .824.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.475.

9) NEM - Averaged long at 38.63 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.59.

10) CPRT - Purchased at 48.68. Stop loss now at 49.68. Stock closed on Friday at 47.39.

11) INTC - Averaged long at 38.78 (2 mentions. Stop loss now at 37.97. Stock closed on Friday at 42.70.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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