Issue #840
December 17, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Up, Up and Away? Bulls in control!

DOW Friday Closing Price - 37305
SPX Friday Closing Price - 4719
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 16623
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1985

The bulls generated a win of consequence this past week with the DOW making a new all-time intraweek, daily, and weekly closing highs and the NASDAQ making a new all-time daily and weekly closing highs. The SPX made a new 23-month intraweek, daily and weekly closing high and is only 77 points away from an all-time daily closing high and the RUT made a new 16-month intraweek high but only made a new 4-month daily closing high. All indexes closed on or near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week (DOW above 37347, SPX above 4738, NAZ above 16669 and RUT above 2009).

There are no catalytical reports due out this week, though on Friday the Personal Spending and Income, PCE Prices and Durable Goods Reports come out. None of those reports are normally catalytic but they can have some effect on the market. Then again, they come out on Friday and will not likely affect the market action during the week.

There are a couple of things to watch for this week that can have some effect on the index market. The first one is the NASDAQ, which was able to generate a new all-time daily and weekly close but only by a few points and the all-time intraweek high at 16764 was not broken. That level is only 141 points above Friday's close and it is important that the bulls do break that level, so as to give more validity to the breakout. Secondly but actually more important is the RUT as without that index breaking its nearby pivotal resistance, the breakout in the DOW and NAZ are suspect. The RUT got up to a decent to strong intraweek, daily and weekly close resistance between 1985 and 2030. It closed at 1985 on Friday and the intraweek high was 2009. The index closed red on Friday (below Thursday's close), meaning that the resistance on the daily closing close was tested successfully. This resistance goes back to August 2022 and has 3 previous stops (of great consequence) at this area. It is "imperative" that the bulls break this level "this week", because if they are not able to do it, the bears will climb aboard for the start of the new year. If that happens, this breakout will likely be negated in the next few weeks.

As far as the downside is concerned for this week, the RUT is also the index to watch. There is an open gap down at 1948 and the established intraweek support is at 1949. A drop down to that level is possible (maybe even expected) to be seen this week, but any further downside than that will cause traders to take notice and start to liquidate their positions going into the end of the year. An eye also has to be kept on the NASDAQ and the 16573 level (on a daily closing basis). That level is the previous all-time high and any confirmed (2 days in a row) close below that level this week, will generate a failure signal against the bulls.

Having said that, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week, especially considering that Fed Chief Powell did leave the door wide open for Fed rate cuts this coming year. Unless he says something opposite to that this week, the bulls should continue to enjoy the seasonal Xmas rally going into Xmas next Monday.


GOLD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then turning around to close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2062 will be seen this week. Having said that, Gold did generate a down day on Friday, having closed red and $29 below Thursday's high at $2062. This does suggest that the bulls do not have full control at this time and that selling interest is there. The bulls still have the edge right now, especially by having closed above $2024 on Friday, which is above the previous all-time weekly closing high, meaning that the probabilities of further upside being seen this week and above $2062 remain valid. Having said that and considering the drop of $167 seen the previous week from the $2155 all-time high made, and considering the 3 previous occasions where that happened before, it is unlikely that any further upside above the now established intraweek resistance at $2072 will be seen. As such, that is likely to be the objective this week, but thereafter selling should be seen with the $1960 as the downside objective to be seen sometime in January. Any rally above $2072 would begin to negate this scenario.

OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 26-week low and then turning around to close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.44 will be seen this week. There is established (but somewhat minor) intraweek resistance between 74.31 and 74.33 that should hold up, followed by some form of retest of the low at 67.72 seen this past week. The chart seems to be saying that the down move is now likely to be over though it is possible that a bit more downside (about $1 more) could be seen in the next few weeks. Nonetheless, the probabilities favors the former and not the latter. In looking at the monthly chart, it suggests that Oil will be moving higher toward the $85 level over the next 2-3 months. For "this week", the daily chart suggest that Oil will have a low of 68.80 and a high around the low 73's.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as this is the beginning of the Xmas holiday period and nothing is likely to do much this week or next. New mentions will start to be given at the beginning of the year.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
CPRT generated a green weekly close, suggesting the previous week's close at 47.39 was a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close at 46.82. Nonetheless, the green weekly close was not totally convincing given that the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, Suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 47.84 than above last week's high at 50.22. The stock did gap up on Monday from 47.63 to 47.84 and there was no news to support the gap, meaning it is a magnet for closure. The stock, on the daily chart, now shows a successful retest of the all-time high at 51.53 with Thursday's high at 50.22 and a negative reversal day, followed by another red day on Friday. This does put the bulls on the defensive this week. Having said that, it is unlikely that anything of great consequence will occur this week and the bulls overall still have the edge (and control) for the longer term. As such and only if the stock generates two daily closes in a row below 46.82, holding on to the positions is the way to go.

ENG made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low at .215. It closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .02525 is expected to be seen this week. Having said that and considering the 1-8 stock split that did occur 3 weeks ago, using the new price, a drop down to 1.45 (.181) is the target before some new buying is seen. Any rally above 2.10 would change that outlook.

GCI generated a 21% spike up rally this week after it was announcef that Compass Point rating company initiated coverage of the stock with a $5 objective. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.48 will be seen this week. There is intraweek resistance between 2.73 and 2.77 that should be reached this week but a pullback back down to 2.34 could be seen immediately thereafter. By the same token, any rally above 2.77 would make the 3.22-3.27 level the objective. The original mention did give this objective for the trade. Having said that and looking at the monthly chart, a close at the end of the month above 2.91 would suggest a rally up to the 4.5-5.4 level would likely occur. Any daily close below 2.25 would weaken the chart short-term.

INTC continued higher this week and the bulls were able to close convincingly above the 200-week MA, currently at 45.11, having closed on Friday at 46.16. The stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 47.24 is expected to be seen this week. Additionally and importantly-so, the stock also generated a major failure signal against the bears, having closed above 68-week low weekly closes between 44.28 and 45.83, which is constituted by a total of 7 previous low weekly closes in that area during this period of time. This failure signal totally negates the 32-month downtrend (22 months since breaking the pivotal support that the stock had been in. Nonetheless and looking at the same chart, there is quite a bit of weekly close resistance around the $52 level, which should not be broken before a retest of the broken support mentions above is tested. This means that the stock should trade between $45 and $52 for at least 6-8 weeks. As such, consideration to taking profits on rallies above $50 should be given.

LXRX generated another green weekly close (5th in a row) but then the green close was only by $.02 cents. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 1.36 than below last week's low at 1.16. It is evident that the traders of this stock will be watching what the RUT (small cap index) does this week (see RUT chart evaluation above). Resistance is found at 1.43 and support at 1.16. A break above 1.43 will offer a rally to 1.50 and a break below 1.16, will offer a drop back down to 1.00.

MRNA spiked up 23% in value (from low to high) this week on positive news about a Cancer vaccine the company is developing. A positive reversal occurred as the company made a new 4-week intraweek low but then closed green and above the previous week's high. The stock did fall back to close just a bit above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 94.93 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, that high (and up to the96 level) is where resistance of consequence begins, meaning that high it is possible that the high of the rally has been reached, or close to be reached. The stock did close on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting that the further downside below Friday's low 85.40 will be seen on Monday. There is daily close support at 82.00, which is the daily close level from which this rally to 94.93 began last week. There is a gap down at 78.72 that is supported by the news, meaning that if closed it would be a negative sign. Any rally above last week's high should be considered as an opportunity to take profits.

PLNH generated a red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .65 will be seen this week. The stock once again closed below the 200-day MA, meaning that line has lost some of its predictive power given that it has closed on 16 of the last 40 trading days below the line. The downside objective of this move is likely to be the .60 cent level, where there is much established support from intraweek lows and previous daily closing highs seen over the past 12 months. Nonetheless, this move down does not look to be indicative of a change for the overall picture for the longer term. In fact, the company keeps a very positive fundamental picture among Cannabis companies and continues to add attractions that will bring in new buyers of their product, such as the addition of a very well-known, established, and popular tattoo shop to their premises is Las Vegas. This move down seems to be a further retest of the .50 low seen in October, in building a solid bottom as the New Year and new news is sought. VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing on a new 26-week high. The stock closed near the high, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.60 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 9.77 and it is likely to be reached this week. Where the stock closes next Friday is the thing to watch this week. In addition, the $10 level is always a strong psychological level of resistance that usually requires strong conviction by the bulls to break. Decent to strong intraweek resistance is found between 10.16 and 10.47. A break above 10.47, followed by a weekly close above 10.36 would be a breakout of note. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 8.65. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 9.00 and 10.30 for the next few weeks, if not a couple of months.

ZLAB generated an indicative positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then turning around to make a new 20-week high. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.88 will be seen this week. The stock has reached a level between 30.06 and 31.49 that is pivotal on all closing charts (daily, weekly and monthly), which if broken on all 3 would open the door for a 3-6 month rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 71.71 (which is by the way, the average rating company's objective for 2024)). The stock did close above the 200-day MA, currently at 29.16, on Wednesday and confirmed the breakout with closes above the line on Thursday and Friday. That line, on a daily closing basis, is now considered important support.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 29.99.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.72.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (23 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 9.36.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 2.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.27.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.44.

6) MRNA - Averaged long at 70.63 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 86.01.

7) PLNH - Averaged long at 1.526 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .673.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.48.

9) NEM - Liquidated at 40.90. Averaged long at 37.63. Profit on the trade of $554 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

10) CPRT - Purchased at 48.68. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.91.

11) INTC - Averaged long at 38.78 (2 mentions. Stop loss now at 37.97. Stock closed on Friday at 46.16.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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