Issue #848
February 11, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls remain in control but the inflation report is this week and it is likely to be a catalyst.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 38671 Once again and for the 3rd week in a row, the indexes (with the exception of the RUT) made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs. Nonetheless, there were some dichotomies that need to be mentioned, given that the DOW only made a new weekly closing high by .0005% (17 points), while the RUT gained 2.6% (39 points), the SPX gained 1.6% (66 points) and the NASDAQ gained 2% (345 points). This dichotomy suggests that the traders have begun to change their minds on where the market is going and have begun to key more on the small cap stocks outpacing the rest of the market. It also likely means that the traders believe that a top to this rally is near. There is not a lot to comment on this past week as there were no economic or earnings reports of consequence that affected the market. Probably, the most important thing that happened was the SPX having reached the 5000 level, which is an important psychological resistance area that will likely require further positive fundamental news to generate an established break above it. Such potentially positive news is not something that is on the calendar for at least the next 3 weeks, after Tuesday's inflation report. This week though, does have a potentially catalytic report in the form of the CPI inflation report on Tuesday morning. In addition and given that there are no other possibly catalytic reports scheduled for another 3 weeks, it is likely that the traders will make some short-to-midterm decisions after the report. The report has to lean on the side of the bears, given that if inflation is getting better, it will not mean that the Fed will lower interest rates sooner, so rallies in an overbought market condition would not likely be large. On the other side of the coin, if inflation does come in higher, it will be a negative to the economy and would make the Fed even less ready to lower interest rates. The core inflation number is expected to be the same as last month at 3%. It does need to be mentioned that the growing economy does not suggest that inflation is heading lower. Normally inflation goes down when companies are not doing well and have to lower prices in order to survive. That has not occurred. From a chart point of view, the 5000 level in the SPX "has to be considered" a very decent (if not strong) psychological level that likely needs strong good news to break. In addition, both the DOW and the NASDAQ are at (or close to) psychological even number levels (such as at 39,000 and at 18,000) and though neither of those levels can be considered decent or strong "psychological" levels, when combined with the 5000 in the SPX, they will have some effect. The indexes did close on the highs of the week and further upside is expected to be seen this week, above last week's highs (in the DOW, above 38755. In the SPX above 5030, in the NAZ above 17987 and in the RUT above 2010). The indexes have been on a run for the past 15 weeks, with each of the 3 main indexes having generated 14 green weeks out of those 15 and the SPX having rallied 18.5%, the NASDAQ having rallied 21.9%, and the DOW having rallied 15% during this period of time. There has not been one single occasion in the last 10 years where the indexes rallied 14 out of 15 weeks. The only other occasion close to that was in 2019 when the indexes generated 13 out of 15 green weeks. Not that it cannot continue but the odds/probabilities favor a red close this week. As far as support levels to watch below, there is really nothing close by. The DOW has the closest intraweek support at 38220 but it is very minor support (no pivotal support close by). The SPX has "no" support close by but it does have "pivotal" support at 4845. The NASDAQ is in the same boat as the SPX with no support close by but pivotal at 17128. This does mean that there are no negative chart catalysts that are likely to be reached this week but it also means that the bulls are in a very precarious and risky situation if they purchase here. As such, watching the action on Tuesday after the inflation report comes out will be the key to the week. The bears need to see a red daily close that day if they want to start generating some selling interest, given that at this time the bulls are in full control.
OIL generated a positive reversal week after news about tight supplies and about the middle east conflict that threatened further shutdowns. Oil made a new 2 week low but then turned around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 77.29 will be seen this week. The chart shows pivotal short-term intraweek resistance at 79.29, which if broken would show open air above to 80.94 (minor) and then minor to decent between 83.37 and 83.59. If Oil does get above last week's high, last week's low at 71.29 will become pivotal support. With support being quite a bit away from Friday's close at 76.84, it seems safe to assume that the only two options for this week are 1) do nothing of consequence and 2) go higher. This scenario right now is based on the fundamental picture and not on the charts and given that it is unlikely that the middle east problems will go away, it is safe to assume that Oil will be moving higher, irregardless of the inflation report. The daily chart suggests that a possible low for the week is 75.20 and a possible high for the week being 79.50. Having said that, and using the daily chart, any break above 79.77 would make the upside targets mentioned above, a probability.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The seasonal outlook for February is for U.S. stocks to go down, as such all my mentions this week (exceppt one) will be shorts as February starts on Thursday.
CALM - Friday Closing Price - 55.56
CALM is an egg producing company that 13 months ago (during the high inflation period) made a new all-time intraweek high at 65.32. Nonetheless, the stock did not make a new all-time monthly closing high until March of last year and immediately the month after, that new all-time high was negated and a fall of 30% occurred during the following 6 months. In October the stock started a new rally that has now taken it from a low of 42.25 to December's high at 57.95. The stock closed on the high of the month in December but the bulls were unable to get above that level in January as the high so far this month has been 57.45 and it closed at 55.42 at the end of the month. This likely means that the rally has run its course.
With inflation heading down and now CALM showing a successful retest of the recent weekly closing high at 57.39 (closed at 56.94 the previous week and had a red close on Friday), it does give new and strong ammunition to the bulls for further downside.
CALM closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.80 will be seen this week. There is quite a bit of intraweek support, starting at the most recent low at 53.03 and on down to 51.95 but if the latter is broken, there is open air down to the 200-week MA, currently at 45.96. In looking at the daily closing chart, which actually has to be more reflective of what is likely to happen now, a daily close below 54.12 would suggest the stock will go down to at least the $50 level. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, there is open air below that support until the 200-day MA, currently at 48.86. If the market reacts negatively to the inflation report on Tuesday, it is likely that drop will occur.
What is positive about a short in CALM at this time is that the chart is quite clear as to the risk/reward ratio and desired entry points, though we are looking at a lowered desired entry point than the ones given the past 2 weeks. The potential negative to the trade, if a short is done on Monday, is that the inflation report could be a catalyst that would make the trade a loser overnight.
Sales of CALM above 55.60 and using a stop loss at 57.35 and having a 50.00 objective offers a 7-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
AAPL Friday Closing Price - 188.35
AAPL has been getting some negative news of late and has lost "some" of its luster as a purchasable stock. Nonetheless, it is still within 5% of its all time high. This is likely because the indexes have been moving higher and generally speaking investors still buy this stock as a rule. Having said that, the chart does seem to be topping out and if the indexes head lower, it would not be surprising if the stock does not outperform them to the downside.
AAPL closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 191.05 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock chart is already showing 1 successful retest of the all-time high at 199.62 with the high seen 3 weeks ago at 196.38, meaning that if that high is not broken this week and the stock does get above last week's high, it could end up being the 2nd successful retest of the high and that would bring in more selling interest. The stock is showing some resistance at 192.93 that is likely to be reached this week and would be the area where shorting could be done.
To the downside, AAPL sh0ws recent support between 180.17 and 179.25, which is the area that is likely to be seen if the 196.38 level is not broken. By the same token, if 179.25 is broken (likely if the indexes get into a corrective phase), the downside target would be anywhere between $171 down to $166. If by any chance the stock breaks below 165.67, the 200-week MA, currently at 147.16 would beckon strongly. This means that the minimum downside objective still offers at least a 3.4-1 risk/reward ratio that could be as high as 12-1 (if the lowest objective is reached).
Sales of AAPL around the 192.93 area and using a stop loss at 196.48 and having at least an objective of 180.17 will offer a 3.4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
PURCHASES
Benzinga did give a list of 5 health stocks that are severely undervalued and oversold and upon looking at the chart of the other 4 (other than ZLAB), I did find this chart extremely interesting and clearly defined.
GILD Friday Closing Price - 73.96
GILD is an American biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Foster City, California that focuses on researching antiviral drugs used in the treatment of HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, influenza, and COVID-19, including ledipasvir/sofosbuvir. The stock made its all-time high at 123.37 in June 2015 and then dropped down to 64.39 over the next 24 months. Since then (7 years ago), the stock has traded mostly sideways, having made a low of 56.56 in December 2020 and a high at 81.74 in December 2022. Most of the time though, the stock traded between $70 and $85.
In December 2022, GILD did generate a breakout above the sideways trading range it had been on for the previous 7 years but the breakout was negated soon thereafter and since then has been moving back to this month's low at 72.81. Nonetheless, the area between 72.20 and 74.42 has been established as a decent weekly close support area during the last 4 years and it is difficult to believe that there are any reasons, both fundamentally and chart-wise for this area to be broken at this time. The area mentioned above has 7 low and high weekly closes established at different times since the first one at 73.51 seen in April 2020. With the stock closing at 73.96 on Friday, it is evident that it is now at good chart support.
On an intraweek basis, GILD did show support at 72.87 but given that it got down to 72.81 last week and did close near the low of the week, it seems likely that further downside will be seen this week. The 200-day MA is presently at 71.14 and there is still some previously established support at 71.38, there is a fair chance that the stock could get down to (or near) that level this week.
GILD reported on January 22 that one of its drugs for cancer failed its phase 3 tests and that announcement caused the stock to drop 12% in one day. The company reported earning this past week (Feb 6) and they were "mildly" disappointing and that brought on the additional selling that was seen on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Having said that and showing the reasons for the recent drop from 87.87 to 72.81, all the bad news is now out and the stock is at decent support and still a strongly viable company in the health industry with other already established products selling well.
GILD did gap down from 86.09 to 81.06 after the phase 3 failure but that gap is highly likely to be at least tested before any further selling below support is likely to happen, meaning that the objective of this trade is at least the $81 level.
Purchases of GILD between 71.14 and 72.62 and using a stop loss at 70.67 and having an 81.00 objective, offers at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio to as much as a 20-1 risk/reward ratio (if bought around 71.14). My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 105 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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ENG made a new 10 week low at 1.01 but then turned around to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.37 will be seen this week. The week's low at 1.01 did meet the chart downside target of $1, meaning that now it all depends on the earnings report that comes out on February 19th. It is likely that the stock will have a positive week this week with an upside target of perhaps as high as 1.58, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at. It is difficult to believe that the earnings report will come in worse than expected, suggesting that some form of an upside trend will be seen during the next couple of months. Closing above the 200-week MA would be a positive but not a game changer. Getting above 2.10 would be a game changer. I do need to remind everyone that this stock has a habit of generating spike up rallies of consequence. It has done it 6 times over the past 11 years. If that is the scenario now, 4.13 would be the likely target with some potential for 6.33 being reached. This has been the MO of this stock for quite a long time. GCI generated a generally uneventful week but made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low. Then again, the intraweek low was only by $.05 and the weekly closing low was only by $.02 cents, meaning that neither was a statement. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 2.14 than going above last week's high at 2.40. The company reports earnings on February 22nd and it is not likely much will happen before then. With the small cap index leaning to the upside, the probabilities favor the stock getting up to at least the 200-day MA currently at 2.38, meaning that for this week, a trading range like between 2.12 and 2.38 is likely. Daily close support is found at 2.12. INTC generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close, as well as a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.52 will be seem this week. The stock is likely to get up to the 200-week MA, currently at 44.76, but on an intraweek basis, it could get up to 45.34, which is where the gap is. Consideration should be given to taking profits there, especially if the indexes are heading lower. JD generated a negative reversal week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.62 will be seen this week. Having said that, it was actually an uneventful week, having traded just $.15 cents above last week's high and $.09 above last week's low and trading within the 20.82 and 24.15 trading range that it has been on for the past 4 weeks. This action seen has been mimicking the action seen in the Chinese index, meaning that what the index does, the stock is likely to follow. In both cases, the recent lows are likely to test the recent lows and if they are not broken, both are likely to rally the rest of the month. As such, the recent low at .20.85 should hold up (not get broken). Any rally above 24.15 would be a positive sign. LXRX continued its upward climb, having generated a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high and appreciated 48% in value over the past 4 weeks. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2.44 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance starts at 2.46 (minor) and up to 2.92 (decent). The 200-week MA is currently at 2.92, suggesting that is the max objective possible until the company reports earnings on February 29th. Support is now found at 2.08. RBLX reported much better than expected earnings and rallied 18.2% from the low to the high of the week. Nonetheless, the bulls fell short in every aspect as they were unable to break a pivotal intraweek resistance at 47.20 (high of the week was 47.10) and more importantly, were unable to close above the most recent high weekly close at45.97, having closed at 44.40 on Friday. Having said the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and that suggests that last week's high at 47.10 will be broken, meaning that a breakout can still occur. Nonetheless, there is established intraweek resistance between 46.05 and 46.25 that is unlikely to be broken on Monday, meaning that Tuesday's inflation report and the market's reaction to it, is likely to affect what the stock does the rest of the week. To the downside, the stock did gap up the morning of the report, from 40.70 to 42.93 and if that gap is closed, the bears will come back in. As such, 40.70 and 46.25 are two of the levels to watch closely this week. SIMO reported better than expected earnings and did get an upgrade from JPMorgan where they give a $90 objective. The stock spiked up 8.4% in value. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.04 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until 71.21 is reached. Above that level, there is open air to 74.10. On a daily closing basis, support will now be found at 64.99. TOL generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 101.21 will be seen this week. Based on the daily chart, any intraweek rally above 101.98, followed up with a daily close above 101.03 would tend to take away some ammunition from the bears. On a weekly closing basis, that level is 101.32. Otherwise, the stock remains in a short-term bearish downtrend. Any daily close below 98.62 would further weaken the chart and pivotal daily close support is found at 95.98. VWDRY generated an outside week, having made a new 7-week low, then going above the previous week's high. Nonetheless, it did give up half of its gains to close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range and at the same price it closed out the previous week, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 9.65 as below last week's low at 8.86. Having said that, the week's low did need to be tested on the daily chart and that might have occurred on Friday as the stock dropped on Thursday and Friday but did close near the high of the day on Friday, meaning that if it goes above Friday's high at 9.31 on Monday, that low will have been retested successfully. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.67 and then nothing until 10.17. The 200-week MA is currently at 9.92 and it is likely to be seen this week. A break below 8.86 would be seen as a negative. Z generated a red week, meaning that the established weekly close resistance at 58.76 has now been retested successfully with the previous week's close at 57.42. In addition and last week, the stock had broken above another established weekly close resistance at 56.33 and did give a failure signal to that break with a close on Friday at 54.95. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.88 will be seen this week. Weekly close support is found at 53.50, which if broken would generate a downside objective of 47.42. On a daily closing basis, the pivotal support is found at 51.92, which if broken would give a minimum objective of reaching the 200-day MA, currently at 48.50. Daily close resistance is now found at 57.25, which if broken would likely negate the short-term bearish outlook. Any break above 59.40 would be a positive. ZLAB continued lower, having made a new 6-year intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock has now lost 41% in value over the past 8 weeks and 13% of that last week alone. There has been no negative news that has come out, suggesting this recent drop is mostly chart oriented. In fact, the stock did get some potentially positive new news this past week, in the way of them being able to get an uncommitted facility letter for loans up to $100 million dollars from the Bank of China, as well as being chosen by Benzinga as one of 5 stocks being severely undervalued and oversold. There is established (though 9-years old) intraweek support at 17.85 (18.02 on a weekly closing basis), that could/should be reached this week as the stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 18.68 is expected to be seen. Given that the Chinese index is likely to go lower this week and then turn around, I expect the same thing to happen to the stock. On a weekly closing basis, the 22.72 level is now resistance. A rally back up to that level is a high probability. Thereafter, it will depend on the earnings report due out February 27th, as well as what the Chinese market does. This is a stock that can be given consideration for buying (or adding positions) on any move below last week's low and using a 17.65 stop loss. Keeping in mind that 22.72 is highly likely to be seen shortly, a purchase below 18.68, using a stop loss at 17.65, and having that objective, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.68. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.35. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.27. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.39. 5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.25. 6) TOL - Shorted at 99.29. Stop loss at 103.40. Stock closed on Friday at 101.01 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.38. 9) Z - Averaged short at 58.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 54.95. 10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 21.38. 11) INTC - Averaged long at 38.78 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 37.97. Stock closed on Friday at 43.31. 12) RBLX - Shorted at 46.38. Average short at 43.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 47.35. Stock closed on Friday at 44.40. 13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 68.46.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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