Issue #849
February 18, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Inflation higher, Bulls falter but outlook still unclear.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 38627
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5005
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 17685
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2035

The indexes (with the exception of the RUT) generated a red weekly close on Friday, which suggests that a top to the rally may have been found. Nonetheless, it was not a convincing red close as the DOW and the SPX closed in the upper half of the week's trading, meaning that there is a slightly better probability of new intraweek all-time highs made this week than not. The NASDAQ though, did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and given that this index has usually been the leader to the upside when further upside is to be seen, it does increase the chances that a correction has started. Adding to this idea is the fact that the RUT did outperform the other indexes to the upside (closed green and in the upper half of the week's trading range) but still closed below the previous 21-month high weekly close at 2033 (closed at 2032), which does suggest that money is leaving the bigger stocks and going to the small cap stocks but still not in a way that would suggest that the entire market is heading higher.

This past week was quite volatile and in both directions, having started the week with a strong drop after the CPI inflation report came out and then recuperating all the losses by Thursday after several better than expected earnings reports came out. On Friday though, the PCE index report (what the Fed mainly uses to evaluate inflation) came in higher than expected and the bulls lost some of the ammunition they had gained back. It certainly was a confusing week that does still leave the door open for either further upside or the start of a correction. There are no more possibly catalytical reports scheduled for the rest of the month, meaning that the action this week is likely to be indicative. Having said that, last week's action has still left both sides of the coin (further upside or a correction) open, meaning that at this time and in this newsletter, I am not going to be able to give you what is likely to happen, with any degree of high probability.

To a certain extent, the RUT is likely to be a key this week. The 22-week high daily close is 2066 and on a weekly closing basis, it is at 2033. Last week's high daily close was 2062 and on a weekly closing basis, it is at 2033. A close any day of the week above the former and then followed by a weekly close above the latter, will give the bulls a strong edge. On the other side of the coin, a daily close below 2003 and then followed by a weekly close below 1981, will give the bears a strong edge. With the index closing on Friday at 2032, it is in the middle of that trading range.

It is possible that neither of those two option occur given that money is likely to continue to move into the RUT but not in a way that makes it go indicatively higher and if that is the case, the index to watch will be the NASDAQ and the minor intraweek support at 17128, which if broken, would give a 16573 objective.

Either way, it is unlikely that much further upside will be seen overall as there is nothing clearly defined that would give the bulls the ammunition to continue upward in an overbought condition and with no support level having been established nearby below. In simple words, the risk/reward ratio based on established support an resistance levels does not support the bulls.

The Fed will be giving the minutes of their last meeting on Wednesday of this week and though the probabilities do not favor anything new or indicative being stated, the traders are likely to wait until after that statement is made to do anything indicative.


GOLD, like with most everything else, generated a close this week that is not indicative of anything but the close was at a point that red or green next Friday will be indicative. Gold closed at $2024, which is where the previous all-time high weekly close is at. That means that a green close next Friday would mean that level on indicative support had held, which would give the bulls some new ammunition, while the opposite is also true for the bears. Nonetheless and having said that, the trader are not likely to wait until Friday to make decisions and as such, will be looking at the daily closing chart for clues as to what will happen. Evidently, the recent high and low daily closes at $2071 and at $2004 are somewhat pivotal but if neither is broken, the trading range this week while waiting for Friday's close, is likely to be between $2016 and $2052. Such a range is not indicative but is likely what will be seen until such a time that some indication of what is likely to happen over the next few weeks occurs. Inflation coming in higher this past week, does give the bulls a bit of an edge. By the same token, keeping interest rates higher for longer is a negative. This could mean that after Wednesday's Fed minutes come out, the traders will take a position.

OIL generated a new 16-week high weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 79.35 is expected to be seen. Oil did generate a new buy signal and that suggests further upside to the next established weekly close resistance at 80.30 will be seen. There are 2 other established weekly close resistance levels at 81.63 and at 82.52, all of which are now potential upside targets. On an intraweek basis though, the chart suggests that at least 80.94 will be seen but possibly 82.63, or even 83.53 will be achieved. Nonetheless, it is likely that to get above 83.53, the bulls will need additional positive fundamental news to break. If Oil does accomplish going above last week's high and generate a green close, the 77.59 level will become support. The monthly chart does suggest that 85.41 will be seen either this month or next but anything above that will require new positive fundamental news, which at this time is not likely to occur.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions for this week. I did get into 2 (of the 3) mentions given last week but the other one (AAPL) did not reach the desired entry point and is not likely to get there this week either, meaning it no longer offers a good risk/reward ratio. In addition, the action this past week did not clear anything up (muddied the outlook) to the point that the traders are likely going to wait for something to actually happen (not speculate) before stepping up to the plate in either direction.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

CALM reported earnings this week and they were better than expected and as such, it generated a positive reversal week, which did change the chart outlook for the trade, meaning that it is likely the stock will head higher and break the established resistance at 57.95. As it is, the stock did hit the stop loss given at 57.35 this week with the high made at 57.70. I did not get out because the entry point was $.80 higher than where I gave the desired entry point, meaning that the risk/reward ratio was better than expected and because the stock had an additional and stronger resistance level above. Nonetheless, higher inflation, better earnings, high food prices likely to remain (or go up) because of all of this, it does suggest that giving consideration to covering the shorts on Monday should be considered. The stock closed at 57.32, meaning $.03 below the given stop loss point. If the stock opens there or lower, covering the shorts should be considered. If the stock opens higher, a stop loss at 58.05 should be used and because if that level is broken, the $60 level is likely to be reached. On the other side of the coin, there is an open gap at 55.97 that if closed on Monday, keeping the short position should be considered as well.

ENG generated a green weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.44 will be seen this week. This move up above last week's high has made the previous week's low into a spike low that looks like a bottom. Upside target for this week is the 200-week MA, currently at 1.59. It will likely close out the week there as the traders await the earnings report that comes out on the 26th (a week from this Monday before the market opens). As such, that report will either give the bears new ammunition or give the bulls the ammunition to generate a spike up rally as the stock has a history of doing every 2 or 3 years. It will be all about the earnings report.

GCI generated an uneventful inside week, as well as an unchanged weekly close. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 2.19 than going above last week's high at 2.40. The company reports earnings on February 22nd and it is not likely much will happen before then. With the small cap index leaning to the upside, the probabilities do favor the stock resuming its uptrend. Nonetheless, the chart will not be in play until after the earnings report comes out. At this point, any drop below 2.14 would be a short-term negative and any rally above 2.63, a tangible mid-term breakout.

GILD made a new 16-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 71.08 and there is intraweek support at 70.11 that at this time, it is unlikely to break. Getting down to the 200-week MA was expected to be seen but the stock remains overall undervalued and oversold and also has been rated as "sector perform" by RBC with a price target of $75. The chart does strongly suggest that a rally back up to 74.12 will occur but if that level is broken and a weekly close above 74.42 occurs, the target would then be $80-$81, which is the target given in the mention. A break below the $70 demilitarized zone would be a negative, which is why the stop loss is at 69.65. The probabilities do suggest this trade is a winner, with the question being "a small winner or a decent winner".

JD generated a positive week in which it generated a small failure signal against the bears, as well as a buy signal for the bulls. The stock on Friday closed above the previous low weekly close at 22.29 (small failure signal) and above the previous high weekly close at 23.83 (closed at 24.22 and gave a buy signal). This was all likely because the Chinese index also did much of the same. The bulls still need to do a bit more to generate a more believable bottom. The stock needs to generate a confirmed daily close, as well as weekly close next Friday, above 24.38 as that was a previous low daily and weekly close that held up for 3 months and when broken, brought about the new 4-year intraweek low at 20.82. A confirmed daily close, followed up with a weekly close above that level next Friday, would strongly confirm that a bottom to this downtrend has been found. If that happens, the 200-day MA, currently at 30.78 would become a target. There is decent resistance at 29.29/29.27 that would likely stop the first attempt at reaching the line but sooner or later that line would likely be reached if the failure signal is given this week. In looking at the weekly chart, it suggests that the $40 level will be reached if a bottom has been found and the monthly does leave the door open for a rally as high as $50. As such, adding additional shares should be considered if all of the above happens.

LXRX rallied 56% in value from the previous week's close to the high seen last week and appreciated in value 33%, based on the weekly "closes". There was no new news to support this rally other than the fact that there is a very positive long term outlook for the stock (some analysts have predicted the stock will get up to $8 by the end of 2024), as well as some new and strong chart signal being given this week. To begin with, there was no established intraweek resistance until the 2.92 level was reached. With the stock closing positively at 2.39 the previous week, the 2.92 level became the objective. Once 2.92 was broken, there was open air above to 3.50 and the 3.92. All of those were broken, except the latter one, that represents a pivotal longer-term resistance of consequence. Nonetheless, the stock gapped up on Wednesday from 2.99 and there was no news to support the gap, meaning that when the bulls were unable to get above 3.92, closure of the gap became a magnet. There is intraweek support at 2.80, that based on what the stock did this past week, is likely to hold up and a return up to 3.50 is likely to be seen thereafter. By the same token, this stock has moved straight up from 1.24 to 3.73 (more than a 200% rally) and has done it without building any support on the way up. The 200-week MA is currently at 2.90, and the stock closed above it (a break of the major long-term downtrend) and as such, is likely to retest the break and likely close around that line next Friday. If that does occur and the retest of the line is successful, the bulls will come back and give a new attempt to get above the 3.92 pivotal resistance that if broken, offers open air to 5.33 and possibly up to $6. A break below 2.80, followed up with a close below the 200-week MA on Friday would be seen as a negative.

RBLX bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the upside this past week even though the stock closed on the high of the week the previous week, due to the better-than-expected earnings report. The stock did close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.53 will be seen this week. The red weekly close makes the previous week's close at 44.40 into a successful retest of the established and decent weekly close resistance at 45.97. Based on the action and news of the past couple of weeks, it does suggest that at best, the stock is moving sideways with support found around the $39 level or that a small downtrend will now begin with a downside target of $35. On a daily closing basis, the 44.87 level is now pivotal resistance. To the downside, there is support at 42.13 but if broken, the next support is found at 38.69. By the same token, a break of the 42.13 level would make the 200-day MA, currently at 37.03 into a bit of a magnet. Overall, it does seem that the bears presently have the edge.

SIMO generated a mostly uneventful week, having generated a small trading range week of $2.16 (compared to the previous week's $5.79) and closed unchanged and in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 69.48 or below 67.32. Having said that, the Chinese index market is expected to go higher this week and there is no established resistance above until the 71.21 level is reached. To the downside, there is minor but likely short-term support at 67.32, which if broken would offer a drop down to $65. Overall though, the bulls have control and JPMorgan did give a $90 objective just 2 weeks ago.

TOL generated a wild week due to conflicting fundamental reports, given that on a positive news, the company did sign a new deal to build additional housing but on negative news, the housing report showed a bit of a slump. The stock had a $7 30 trading range from high to low and did make a new 7-week intraweek high in the process. Nonetheless, the bulls fell short of making a new all-time high given that the high for the week was 105.85 and the all-time high is 105.91. Subsequently and after the negative news came out, the stock fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 98.55 will be seen this week. In addition, the bulls did make a new all-time daily closing high, having generated a close at 105.43 on Monday (previous high was 105.18) but then generated a failure signal the very next day and then also generated a successful retest of that high with a close at 104.18 on Thursday and a red close on Friday. Short-term pivotal daily close support is now found at 100.03 and midterm pivotal at 95.98. Nonetheless, the chart does suggest that if the stock does go below last week's low, that it will trigger new selling interest and therefore a correction likely begin, with a downside target of $85, or even $82, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. On an intraweek basis, the 104.27 level seems to be pivotal to the upside, just as the 100.03 is pivotal to the downside.

VWDRY generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.90 will be seen this week. On a slightly positive note, the weekly close support at 8.98 did hold up as the stock closed at 9.00. Having said that, the bears do have a bit of an edge right now and the 200-day MA, currently at 8.52, beckons. It is possible and perhaps even likely that level will be reached this week but it is a level where new (or additional) purchases can be made with at least an upside target of 10.18. The monthly chart does show some support at 8.77 that could hold up. On the monthly chart, the outlook is still quite bullish with an overall target of 12.31 to be reached within the next 3-6 months.

Z generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 2-year intraweek high after the earnings report came in better than expected but then reversing to close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 52.60 will be seen this week. The down move came after the Housing starts report came in lower than expected. A drop below 52.60, which is short-term pivotal support, will leave the 50.60 low as the only recent intraweek support below. Below that, the 200-day MA is currently at 48.83. Nonetheless and in looking at the intraweek chart, a break below 49.03 would generate open air below until the $43-$44 level is reached. Intraweek resistance is now found at 57.19 and at 58.32. The Housing starts report will keep the bears with ammunition, meaning that at this time the possible trading range is between $49 and $58 with more potential for further downside (than further upside) above or below those levels.

ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-year intraweek low and then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.10 will be seen this week. It does need to be mentioned that the stock has not traded at these prices since 2018, where it traded with a high of 27.34 and a low of 14.29 for a period of a year. During that year though, 95% of the trading occurred between 17.85 and 25.85, suggesting that this positive reversal does have a $25-$26 objective with the next 3-5 weeks. The stock does report earnings on February 27th and based on everything that I have read, the stock is severely underpriced and as such, the earnings report is more likely to be a positive catalyst than a negative one. Having said that and looking at the daily chart, the immediate objective for this week is likely to be the 22.72 level. To the downside, the stock did gap up between 18.18 and 18.57 and that gap is a magnet unless a second gap occurs first, making it a breakaway/runaway gap formation. There is presently no news to support such a formation occurring but then again, the stock is so severely underpriced that on that alone, such a formation could occur and be valid. Either way, it is probable that a bottom to the downtrend has been found and that further upside will be seen from here on in. Any daily close above 22.72 would open the door for a rally up to the $26 level.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.64.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.44.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.oo.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.19.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.25.

6) TOL - Shorted at 99.29. Stop loss at 105.96. Stock closed on Friday at 102.18

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49.

9) Z - Averaged short at 58.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 54.80.

10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 24.22.

11) INTC - Liquidated at 44.89. Averaged long at 38.78. Profit on the trade of $1224 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

12) RBLX - Averages short at 43.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 47.35. Stock closed on Friday at 42.91.

13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 68.46.

14) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss is at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 71.59.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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