Issue #887
November 17, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| New Support Building Action has Begun!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 43444 The indexes all generated a negative reversal week, with red weekly closes that caused anywhere from a 3% to 5% decrease in value, suggesting that a correction and the beginning of building a new (and closer than presently in place) support base has begun. The initial spike up in price due to the Trump win seems to have ended as there is nothing truly tangible that will happen until he takes office on January 21st, 2025. The NASDAQ was the only index that generated any kind of a bear signal, given that it did generate a failure signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous all-time daily closing high at 20675. In addition, it also closed below the previous-to-the-announcement-of-the-Trump-win daily closing high at 20550 (closed at 20394), meaning that the Tech Industry seems to be the one industry not gaining as much by the win as the other industries. None of the other indexes gave any negative signal at all, other than a correction is occurring. It does need to be mentioned that a new dichotomy is in place, given that several industries have actually been negatively impacted by the Trump win. Those industries are clean energy and in some cases Health Care. The latter more so since RFK was nominated as the next Health Secretary. This is not yet clear how it will impact the overall market but it is something that will need more time and evaluation before it can be clearly determined. As such, the action for the next 2 months is more likely to be sideways than up or down, with the idea of building the chart sufficiently so that when Trump takes office and begins to do what he stated he will do, the traders will be able to decipher (by the support and resistance levels created) what the market is likely to do the first few months of his presidency. One thing that does need to happen in the DOW, the SPX and the NASDAQ, before any "probable" downside objectives can become real possibilities, is that the "previous" all-time highs be broken (and a failure signal given). Those levels are a high probability to be reached this week, but the time frame for their breakage is not clear (could be this week or not until next month). Those levels are at 43275, at 5864 and at 20391 (respectively). Nonetheless and at some point over the next 2 months these levels will likely be broken and when that happens the downside target for the DOW would be 42000, in the SPX it would be 5728 and in the NASDQ it would be the 19000 demilitarized zone (1997-20030). To the upside and presently, the all-time high weekly closes made last week (DOW at 43988, SPX at 5999 and NASDAQ at 21117) are resistance. Once these "previous" all-time high weekly closes get broken, they will become resistance (though likely minor). The only thing in question this week is whether the all-time highs will be tested now (next 1-3 weeks) or later. Nonetheless and by the action seen this week (runaway freight train stopped), it seems highly probable that more downside than upside will be seen over the next 2 months. This does not mean that new highs cannot be made, but if made they are likely to be minor advances. The reality is that the bulls need/require to build a new and closer support than presently in place. The Trump win has given new and possibly strong ammunition to the bulls but only if done without the potential negatives involved. Even then, implementation of his policies are not guaranteed so that also creates insecurity that needs a dependable and fully built support area where buying can occur that offers a good risk/reward ratio. HSI continued lower, dropping an additional 6.5% in value (total percentage drop since the 1st week of October has been 16.5%). The index closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19426 will be seen this week. Deflationary pressures (lower than anticipated GDP) were announced this week) added to the potential negatives of Trump announcing new tariffs on China when he gets into office) were the reason for the fall this week. Chart-wise, the index broke one old but established weekly close support at 19898 and generated a failure signal (having closed below the previous high at 19553 that when broken generated the rally to 232410, but was able to close above another established (but minor) weekly close support level at 19319. If that is broken this week, a drop down to the next minor to decent weekly close support level at 18365 would likely be seen. On an intraweek basis, the next support is at 19178 and then at 18829. To the upside, a daily close above 19636 would take some of the selling pressure off and a close above 20079 would give a failure signal against the bears. It is difficult at this time to visualize any movement up without some fundamental help from the Chinese Government.
GOLD(Dec 24 chart) generated a 4.8% drop in price this past week and though no negative signal was given on the weekly closing chart, a failure signal and a sell signal were given on the daily closing chart. This does mean that for now (and until the fundamentals change), the $2801 high is a top to the rally. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is support (though minor) at $2495. On a weekly closing basis, there is support at $2513 (on a daily closing basis at $2501). Nonetheless, the reality is that none of the supports close-by below have any strength, given that Gold moved up in a straight manner for the last $360. The next weekly close of importance and strength is found between $2436 and $2444. If that level is reached, the probabilities of a bounce to test the all-time high are high. Until then, the short-term action is not very predictable. One thing that can be said with a fair amount of certainty is that the $2614 level (on a daily closing basis) is now decent resistance and $2678 is now strong resistance and unlikely to be broken without fundamental help. This does suggest that for the next 2 months, Gold should not go above $2678 nor below $2436. OIL generated a sell signal this week, having made a new 20-month low weekly close at 66.96, and breaking the most recent low weekly closes at 69.22, at 68.18 and at 67.67. There are still weekly closes below at 66.74. at 66.26. at 62.32 and at 59.32, any of which might stop the fall and generate a rally. At this time though, the break of support seen this week has taken away all control away from the bulls and the action seen suggests that further downside down to at least the 62.32 level (on a weekly closing basis) is likely to happen and even probably before the end of the month (in 13 days). The support seen below is no longer strong as Oil has been down at these levels (around $66-$67) too many times before and the support below that (at 62.32 and at 59.32) is minor, meaning that a drop all the way down to the $45 level (where decent support is again found) is a good probability to be seen over the next 2 months. Having said that, it is likely that the trading action seen will not be straight down but with some small rallies occurring on a very short-term basis, followed by a slightly bigger drops than the rallies. A daily close above 68.70 would take some of the selling pressure off and temporarily change the outlook
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
It does seem that some base building is occurring at this time, meaning that both upside and downside action is likely to be seen from now on. Normally, this would be a good time to "trade" stocks. Nonetheless and given Trump-win rally action seen the previous week with new all-time highs being made, and last week's down action, stocks and indexes seem to be at a midpoint in the likely trading range and that does not offer good risk/reward ratios at this time.
There are some stocks that are at extreme depressed prices that could be considered for purchase but those are stocks severely affected by the Trump win, meaning the upside is likely limited and there is no certainty that upside will occur. As such, I have no trades to offer at this time.
Having said that, one of the existing stocks LXRX (not likely to be affected by a Trump presidency) should be strongly considered for adding shares at this price.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 221.50 than above last week's high at 228.87. The action overall was noneventful, Having said that, if the stock does go below last week's low and in addition breaks below the previous week's low at 219.71, a required/needed retest of the all-time high at 237.69 will have occurred, as well as a break of the 2nd successful retest of the low seen in August at 196.00. Such action would likely generate new selling interest with a potential downside objective of $200. To the upside, a break above last week's high would offer a potential rally to 233.00. The week is a bit of a flip of a coin as to what will happen but whatever does happen will definitely offer the objectives mentioned. AXP generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 285.39 will be seen this week. This is one of the stocks that received a strong boost from the Trump win, meaning there is fundamental support existing. The stock did gap up after the win was announced, meaning the gap is indicative. With the gap being between 276.18 and 284.65 and the previous all-time daily closing high being at 285.78, those levels are all in play this week and are indicative. A confirmed daily close below 285.78 will give some ammunition to the bears and certainly a closure of the gap would erase the rally totally. The bulls maintain control, so neither is probable. A intraweek/intraday drop down to 284.65 is a high probability but thereafter, it is unknown at this time whether more downside will occur or not. If all of these levels hold up in the first 3 days of the week, the probability of the rally continuing to new all-time highs will be high. BCTX continued the recent down move, having made a new 7-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at .568 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock is now near an intraweek support area of note at .526 that is likely to hold up, given that there has been no new fundamental news on the company and this stock not being sensitive to the new administration. On a daily closing basis there is support at .553 and on a weekly closing basis, there is support at .563. This does suggest that this week could generate some new buying interest and the beginning of a move back up. Any green close next Friday or two daily closes above the .70 level would give the bulls new ammunition. On an intraday basis, a confirmed 10-minute close above .63 would suggest the downside is over. IBM generated a red week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 204.07 will be seen this week. The chart action showed that at present, the bears are in short-term control and that a drop down to the previous all-time weekly closing high at 195.95 is a high probability. The 200-day MA is currently at 191.72 and that has now become a clear objective to be reached during the next week or two. If that level is reached, taking profits should be considered because a rally back up to at least the $200 level would likely occur. In addition, short positions at this time (until Trump takes office) are not high probability trades. A rally above last week's high at 216.70 would change the short-term outlook. LXRX reported earnings this past week and they were lower than expected and the stock made a new all-time weekly closing low at .975 (below the previous one at 1.01). The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .97 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, the all-time low is at .92 and given that the rating on the company has not changed (remains a bullish buy with the 10 rating companies that follow the stock, with H.C. Wainwright % Co, reiterating its buy rating after the earnings report with a $6 objective), probabilities do not favor the level breaking. On a daily closing basis, any confirmed daily close above 1.01 would take some of the selling pressure off and a daily close above 1.30 would generate a buy signal. An intraweek drop below .92 would further weaken the chart. SNDL made a new 4-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.94 will be seen. This stock has seen some selling come in since the Trump win as it is a Cannabis stock and Trump has never stated any support for that industry, unlike the support that has been there with the Democrats (in general). Having said that, the new 4-month low did not break anything of consequence, given that on a weekly closing basis and since May, the trading range has been between 1.82 and 2.24. Having said that, the stock is at a short-term pivotal level as the 200-day MA is currently at 1.97 and the stock closed on Friday at 1.95. If this break is confirmed with a daily close below 1.92, a drop down to at least the 1.82 level would be seen. A daily close above 2.00 would take the selling pressure off. VWDRY made a new 56-month intraweek and weekly closing low this past week but there was some buying interest seen as the stock got down as low as 4.61 but the closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.93 will be seen this week. The action (though red) was an indication that perhaps a low to this move down (due to Trump's win) may be over. On a weekly closing basis, there is important and pivotal support at 4.77 and the stock traded below that level on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, but in the end, the bears were not able to break that level. It should be noted than on both the daily and weekly charts, there is absolutely no (zero) resistance above until the 5.94-6.00 level is reached, meaning that chart-wise, the stock could run up as much as 22% without a problem. In looking at the chart the last time it traded here (back in the early 2020's), a rally back up to the $7 level is what happened. Unfortunately, the fundamental picture of green energy stocks is not rosy under the Trump administration, meaning it is difficult to predict what the stock will do. An intraweek break below 4.50 would be destructive to the chart. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 26.47 is expected to be seen this week. The fundamental reason for the drop in price is that the company offered a new $200 million offering at 25.50 per share and that means that the 25.50 level is a magnet right now. By the same token, when the offering is done, the 25.50 level will not only become a strong support level but the money raised from the offering will give reasons for new buying interest to appear as the money will be used to promote their products from here on in. Chart-wise, there is intraweek support at 24.94, that based on the news should hold up. The 31.22 level is now resistance and a rally above 32.48 would mean this move down is over.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.06. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.27. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.86. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.63 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .975. 5) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .595 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.95. 7) IBM - Shorted at 218.74. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 204.99. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 252.16 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 286.87. 9) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 225.00
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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