Issue #883
October 20, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls remain in control but traders will now await election results before going further.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 43275 Once again and for the 3rd week is a row, all indexes (with the exception of the RUT) made new all-time or rally weekly closing highs. The news this week was once again positive with Retail Sales coming in better than expected and earnings of MS and NFLX also coming in better than expected. The uptrend continued. On a weekly closing basis, one new thing occurred as the RUT did make a new 35-month weekly closing high and appreciated more than the other indexes (was up 2% vs 1% or less in the other indexes), meaning that the market may be starting to process of reaching a trend high. By the same token, such a scenario is not necessarily a short-term event. All indexes closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 43325, SPX at 5878, NAZ at 20493, and RUT at 2289) will be seen this week. The NASDAQ and the RUT continue to be the indexes to watch. The NASDAQ failed to make a new intraweek, daily or weekly closing high, having closed on Friday at 20324 and the all-time weekly closing high is at 20391. The daily closing high is at 20675. In addition, the index did close at 20439 on Monday and that too is now a bit of a daily close resistance, which if not broken (and a daily close below 19970 occurs first), selling interest will appear. On an intraweek basis, the all-time high is at 20690. In the RUT, the bulls need to get above the most recent intraweek high at 2300 to confirm the multi-month weekly closing high made on Friday. There are no possibly catalytic earnings or economic reports due out this week, meaning that there is nothing that could trigger selling interest. In the earnings front, it is a DOW week as all the important reports due out this week are in that index. It has been a long time since any of the DOW had any catalytic power. In addition, the traders are now keying on the election on November 5th, suggesting that nothing is going to be catalytic enough to move this market up or down until then. To the downside, the same levels as given last week remain in play as being catalytic. Here are the daily closes that would weaken the hands of the bulls. In the DOW, a daily close below 42352 would weaken the bull's hand and a close below 42191 would generate a sell signal. In the SPX, the same 2 levels are at 5762 and at 5695. In the NASDAQ, those levels are at 20115 and at 19773 and in the RUT those levels are at 2218 and at 2180. I do not expect much to happen this week but the bulls do have the edge for further upside, though at this point it is likely to be limited in nature. HSI market had a short week (3 trading days) but was active as it generated a 1268-point trading range. The index did go below the previous week's low and then rallied enough to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21366 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it will mean this correction is over and the uptrend will continue or at least a retest of the recent rally high at 23241 will be seen. On the daily closing chart, the index did generate a successful retest of the daily close breakout level at 20078, with a close on Wednesday at 20079 and a green close on Thursday. A daily close above 21251 will confirm the retest as being successful (closed on Thursday at 20804). On a weekly closing basis, some support is found at 20553 but the important support is found at 18898. As such, it is still possible that further downside could be seen. The 21251 level of daily close support is the key to that scenario this week.
GOLD(Dec 24 chart) generated further upside, having made another new intraweek and weekly closing high and closing on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2737 will be seen this week. A daily close below $2690 would put a temporary halt to the uptrend (closed at $2736 on Friday), and a daily close below $2626 would generate a sell signal. It is unlikely that any negative action can possibly occur until after the election results are known (in 3 weeks). OIL failed to follow through to the upside and generated a negative week with a drop of 8.3% from the previous week's close. Oil closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 68.70 will be seen this week. The drop this week was due to continued high Oil supply and lower demand outlook. Having said that, the bears did not accomplish anything tangibly negative as Oil now shows one previously successful intraweek retest at 66.33 of the recent downtrend low at 65.25. Intraweek support is found at 67.72 that is likely to be seen but unlikely to be broken. If 66.33 is broken (especially if a daily close below 67.37 occurs), then the bears will get new ammunition and further downside is likely to be seen. A daily close above 71.92 will take some of the short-term edge away from the bears. This does look like base-building action. It is doubtful that anything of consequence will happen until after the election results are known.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again, there are no new mentions this week. With the election being less than 3 weeks away and it is a pivotal-to-the-economy election, it is doubtful that anyone will take any positions (long or short) until then. Small cap stocks might be the exception but even then, no big moves are likely to occur until then. Nonetheless, consideration should be given to adding positions to the existing held stock (LXRX). See the comment below in the Held Stocks Comment section below.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a new all-time daily and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 237.49 will be seen this week. The stock generated almost all of its gains after it was announced on Friday that Apple phone sales in China were up 20%. Having said that, the new all-time intraweek high was made by only $.26 cents and the new all-time daily closing high was only by $.12 cents, meaning that the bulls have to generate further upside on Monday for that breakout to be meaningful. With all the other fundamental problems that the company has been having of late, it would not be surprising if this breakout is negated. A daily close below 231.78 would not only negate the breakout but bring in new selling interest. AXP reported a mixed earning report with lower-than-expected outlook for the future. Off of the report, the stock fell 5.6% though the stock closed only 3.2% lower. The stock did end up making a new all-time weekly closing high (by $.63 cents) and did close in the middle of week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 286.36 as going below last week's low at 269.05. The stock does have a potential island formation, given that it gapped up on Thursday (prior to the report) from 281.87 to 282.48 and then gapped down on Friday (after the report) from 282.48 to 279.20. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside, with closure of the gap being the bull objective. Closure of the gap will give the bulls a bit of an edge to possibly make new all-time highs but the outlook given by the company in the earnings report and the limited upside expected to be seen in the market prior to the election, as well as the fact the stock is overbought and recently was given a sell rating with at $230 objective, does suggest that the gap will not be closed and that an island formation will be in effect. If that is the case, the stock is likely to go below last week's low with a short-term objective of at least 266.16 but likely even down to the $260 level. BCTX generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed on Friday below the weekly close breakout point at .864 (closed at .839). The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .79 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at .66. There was no news and the fundamental picture remains bullish, suggesting the support will not be broken. Any daily close above .864 will negate the failure signal and give the bulls new ammunition. Any daily close above 1.24 would be a new short-term breakout. DD generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 84.40 will be seen this week. The stock has now generated 3 red weeks in a row but closed just $.12 cents above the previous multi-year daily and weekly closing high at 84.97 (closed at 85.09), meaning that if the breakout was real, the close this past Friday was a retest of the breakout level. This does suggest that a green close will be seen on Friday. A confirmed daily close below 84.25 will generate a failure signal that will negate the breakout. Probabilities do favor the bulls, meaning that consideration to covering the short position (and taking the loss) should be done. IBM generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 237.37 but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 230.17 will be seen this week. After this huge bull run to the upside, it is highly likely that a correction has begun with at least a drop down to $223 occurring. Such a drop would not be a negative to the uptrend. The bears need to generate a daily close below 219.15 for any new selling interest to occur. Daily close resistance now found at 233.67 and pivotal daily close resistance is found at 235.60. Probabilities are high that the bears have the short-term edge. LXRX's rating as a buy with a $10 target was reiterated on Wednesday and the bulls got on board to the tune of a 20% increase in price. The stock broke the 3-month weekly close resistance level at 1.85 and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.17 will be seen this week. Pivotal midterm daily and weekly close resistance is found at 2.39, which if broken would offer open air to the 200-week MA, currently at 2.91. Daily close support is now at 1.91, which based on the news and the fundamental picture, should not be broken from here on in. Adding positions on any drop below 2.00 should be considered. SNDL generated a very uneventful week where the stock traded in a minute $.05 cent trading range. Nonetheless, it was announced on Friday that the company agreed to buy all of NOVA's shares, meaning that they will now have a better way to advertise and sell their product. It is a long term positive. The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above the 2.02 level will be seen this week. A daily close above 2.06 will confirm the successful retest of the 200-day MA line that occurred the previous week, and bring in some new buying interest. There is now a fair chance that the stock will begin moving up from here. A weekly close above 2.37 would be a breakout. Any drop now below 1.90 would be a negative. VWDRY dropped an additional 9% in price and got down to the $6 level with a low of 5.99. The stock did see some buying interest come in as the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.46 will be seen this week. The stock is showing a gap at 6.56 that should be closed as there was no news to support the gap staying open. The bulls need to generate a daily close above 6.37 and a weekly close above 6.51 to negate this indicative and negative break of support. There has been no new news on the company. Major indicative weekly close support is found at 5.94 (5.77 on a daily closing basis). ZLAB generated a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.80 will be seen this week. The stock has now reached the next and very important area of resistance between $30 and $31, which if broken would be a positive mid-to-long-term bullish statement. Intraweek resistance is found at 31.22 (on a daily closing basis at 30.70 and on a weekly closing basis at 29.99). Short-term pivotal daily close support is now found at 24.62. A close below that level would take away any short-term ammunition the bulls have achieved.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.49. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.29. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.28. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.5447 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.08. 5) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .839 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.02. 7) IBM - Shorted at 218.74. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 232.20. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 252.16 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 276.79. 9) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 235.00. 10) DD - Shorted at 82.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 85.09.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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