Issue #868
June 30, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| First Signs of a Top to the Rally Seen!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 39118 The SPX and NASDAQ generated key negative reversals, having made new all-time highs and then closing red. The DOW also generated a red weekly close. All of these 3 indexes closed in the lower half or near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 38908, SPX at 5447 and NAZ at 19472). The RUT though, outperformed the other indexes, having closed green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2057 will be seen this week. This was an indicative week given that the news was all positive (slightly) and buying did occur off of the news but then at the end of the week on Friday, the reality of the overbought, overdone, and highly dichotomous situation with Tech and AI running the show and everything else lagging significantly, took hold and the indexes showed that continuing this scenario was not healthy or maintainable. As such, it can be said (with some confidence) that at least for the next 4 weeks (until the Fed rate decision on July 31st) there will be some type of corrective action. Nonetheless, it is entirely possible (and perhaps even probable) that the top to this rally has been found. This is especially true given that the DOW got up to 40,000, the SPX up to 5500 and the NASDAQ up to 20,000, all of those levels are strong psychological resistance levels that are not going to be broken without "tangible" positive news (none of which is available at this time). One thing that is overlooking the market that could negate all of the above is the fact that July is by nature one of the best months of the year for stocks. Since 1928, the SPX index has gained an average of 1.7% in value (off of Friday's close that would mean a close at the end of July at 5552) and during the past 3 years, the index has gained an average of 4.8% in value (meaning a close on July 31st at 5722). If that occurs, that would mean this uptrend will continue in a big way. Based on this past week's action and on the charts, for this week and perhaps the following week, the indexes (with the exception of the RUT) are likely to head down with the DOW having a 38483 objective, the SPX having a 5400 objective and the NASDAQ having an 19400 objective. Then again, the monthly ISM and Jobs reports come out this week and those can always be catalytic. The ISM index report is expected to come out at 49.1 and non-farm payrolls at 170k. Higher than expected numbers on both of these would be supportive to the bulls. Last month's numbers were 48.7% and 272k. The RUT outperforming the other indexes this past week does support the chart outlook. Normally at the end of a bull market, money moves over to the small cap stocks and that was seen this past week. Having said all of the above (chart action, seasonal tendency, and reports due out), this market continues to be difficult to evaluate as the charts have not been as dependable as in past times. It is absolutely clear that there have been dichotomies this year that have never been seen before and those are based on intangible or speculative outlooks. AI is a total intangible and speculative endevour that could change a few industries in a big way. The Tech industry has and will benefit greatly from it, but the dichotomy seen between it and the rest of U.S. businesses has been unprecedented. As such, rallies based on intangible outlooks have been seen but they have not included the large part of the business world. With no past reference history, trading the market has been difficult. Anyhow, this month will be indicative and especially the first few weeks as the charts say "down" but the seasonality of July says "up". The dichotomy says "flip of a coin". Nonetheless, one thing that is always dependable and can be relied on and that is risk/reward ratios and probability ratings and those do favor the chart picture over the dichotomy as the Tech Industry is way overbought with high PE ratios and the small cap industry is oversold with record low PE ratios. This likely means that whatever the market does, the small cap industry is likely to outperform the rest of the market this month, even if the market heads lower. The RUT will be the index to watch this week. The index should go higher The first "intraweek" resistance level is at 2071, (which is 24 points higher than Friday's close). Indicative-if-broken resistance is at 2088 and pivotal resistance is at 2135. On a weekly closing basis, indicative resistance is at 2095 and pivotal at 2124. To the downside, the 1966 level (on a daily closing basis) is pivotal. HSI generated another negative week, having made a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The index closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 17583 is expected to be seen this week. On a small positive note, the low for the week was made on Friday and a positive reversal day occurred as the index closed green. This suggests that buying interest is found around the established intraweek support level found at 17573 (10 points lower than Friday's low). The positive reversal day means that the index could go lower this coming week by just a few points, fulfill reaching but holding above that level and then generating a recovery rally from them. On a negative note though, the index generated a negative month, meaning that the monthly close resistance at 18234 was tested successfully and that keeps the downtrend alive. On the monthly chart, there is no resistance below until 17047 is reached (on a monthly closing basis). As such, the action this week is going to be indicative. To the upside and on a daily closing basis, a close above 17919 will take a bit of ammunition away from the bears and a close above 18089 will give the edge to the bulls.
GOLD(Aug 24 chart) generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2350 will be seen this week. Having said that, the week was mostly uneventful as Gold did not break anything in either direction and remains in a clearly defined very-short-term trading range between $2292 and $2370. Having said that, the chart is leaning heavily toward a bear outcome. A daily close above $2357 will take some of the edge off of that bear outlook, while a daily close below $2302 would be a breakdown. Gold closed on Friday at $2336. OIL generated another green weekly close (3rd in a row) but nothing of consequence occurred. Oil closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 82.72 than going below last week's low at 80.19. Intraweek resistance is found at 83.53, which if broken would open to door for a rally as high as 86.71. To the downside and if Oil goes below 80.19, there is no established intraweek support until 77.59 is reached. In looking at the daily chart, Oil did make a new 5-week high but then failed to confirm the breakout, having closed on Friday below the high daily close for the past 5 weeks at 82.17. With Oil closing red and near the low of the day on Friday, probabilities favor the bears on Monday and if 80.19 is broken, it will be a short-term trigger for lower prices.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The outlook for Tech stocks is bearish for this week and probably the next. Nonetheless, in looking for shorting opportunities in that industry, I could not find any stocks to short that offer a decent risk/reward ratio. As such, I will not be shorting any stocks, though if a day or overnight trade does pop up, I will mention it on the message board. On the other side of the coin, I do expect small cap stocks to rally, as well as some of the very oversold stocks that have reached levels of support that require negative news to break. As such, my mention from last week on DSGR remains viable. In addition and among held stocks, BABA and PYPL should be considered for purchasing (if not purchased before) or adding to the existing positions. In these cases,check below on the Held Stocks comments section for details.
DSGR Friday Closing Price - 30.00
DSGR got down to my desired entry point this past week but I held back purchasing it due to the uncertainty of the overall market during the week. Nonetheless and now that all of that has occurred, I do plan to purchase the stock this week at the original purchase level at 29.70 (or lower).
DSGR is a distribution solutions company, meaning that it is always in demand no matter the outlook of the market. The stock has been on a constant uptrend since. The stock has been on a constant but not steep uptrend since 2022 and the stock itself started trading in June 2022, meaning that it has shown to be a stock that is likely to continue higher. In addition, the type of uptrend seen, means that purchasing the stock offers no great risk and it does offer a good probability rating for continuing the uptrend.
DSGR made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high 6 weeks ago and promptly generated a failure signal. On other stocks, this could be something to worry about, but in this stock and with the type of uptrend that stock has been in, this is a normal kind of action. On the previous 4 all-time highs made in the last 8 months, every single new high generated an immediate failure signal, only for the stock to then resume the uptrend a few weeks later. On this particular occasion, the stock did generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, which does suggest that "perhaps" a top to the uptrend has been found. Nonetheless, a retest of that top is likely to be seen, meaning that even if the uptrend is over, buying at the desired entry point, still offers a good risk/reward with a high probability rating.
DSGR generated a positive reversal week this past week, having made a new 16-week low but then turning around to close green and very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.57 will be seen this week. The stock has now held (on a weekly closing basis) the $30 demilitarized zone (29.70-30.30)on 4 occasions over the past 9 months, suggesting that there is basic and fundamental buying interest at this level. With the stock generating a positive reversal, the priobabilities favor a green weekly close on Friday.
As such, purchasing DSGR around the 29.70 level and using a stop loss at 27.91, and having an objective of 35.61 will offer a 3.6-1 risk/reward ratio. By the same token and based on its history, there is a good chance that the stock will continue the uptrend and if that happens, a rally above the recent all-time high at 37.31 will be seen. Such a rally would give the trade a better than 4.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). This is down from the 4 rating given last week.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 6/1 Loss of Loss of $2,134 using 100 shares per mention Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $0 Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
NONE
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. PRAA (long) $193 Total Loss for June, per 100 shares, including commissions $193 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1
SNOW (long) $554
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
INTC (long) $12 Total $736 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1
PYPL (long) $291
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
BABA (long) $1260 Total $2,950 Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Loss of $2,407
Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 6/3Loss of $4,541 per 100 shares.
BABA generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then making a new 9-week low. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.80 will be seen this week. The bulls have failed miserably in generating any buying interest as the stock has fallen 18.7% in value (based on the weekly closes). Having said that, there is still support left below on the weekly closing chart at 69.07 (68.36 on an intraweek basis) that the bulls need to hold if they have any thoughts of recovery. In addition and looking at the daily chart, there is quite a bit of daily close support between 71.36 and 72.13 that "should" hold up. It also needs to be mentioned that in looking at the monthly chart, the stock did generate a breakout in May and though the breakout was negated on Friday, the building of a support base is still going forward. The stock made a 7-year low at 58.01 in October 2022. That low was then retested successfully in January of this year with a low at 66.63 and then a second successful retest of that low occurred in April with a low at 68.36. This means that there are now 2 successful retests of that major low and if the 68.36 level is not broken on this move down and the stock recovers by going above this months high next month, a 3rd successful retest will have occurred and that will give the bulls ammunition to take the stock above the 90.46 high seen in May. Having said that, it does suggest that this week could be very indicative and/or pivotal. A daily close above 74.39 would give the short-term edge back to the bulls. I do believe the stock will close either Monday or Tuesday around the 71.36 level and then start recovering from there. That means an additional drop of $.64 cents below Friday's close. It is important to mention that the analysts covering BABA have stated recently that they see the stock moving up to at least $85 or at most to $135 before years end. GCI made yet another new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing high and once again closed near the high of the week suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.66 will be seen this week. The stock now shows 9 weeks in a row of higher lows and is becoming overdue for some type of correction. There was some minor monthly close resistance at 4.54 but that was broken as it closed on Friday at 4.61. There is minor intraweek resistance at 4.87 that could be the objective for this week. Nonetheless, any move below a previous week's low would suggest a correction has started. Last week's low was 4.37. The correction could take the stock all the way down to 3.52, meaning that consideration should be given to taking profits if the stock gets up to (or near) 4.87. INTC generated (once again) an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.42 will be seen this week. The stock has continued to trade sideways in a trading range between 29.73 and 32.42, which has been in effect for the past 9 weeks. In looking at the daily closing chart, the stock now shows 4 successful intraweek retests of the low made on May 8th at 29.73, suggesting that the bulls are ready to generate a breakout. The 31.48 is short-term pivotal resistance and the 32.42 is longer term indicative pivotal resistance. A break below 30.29 would be a sign that the bears have gotten the edge. JD is almost in the exact same boat as BABA, inasmuch and the stock broke out the previous month but has now given up those gains and gone below the previous month's low. Then again, if the stock does not get below 21.18, and does rally from here, the chart will show this drop to be the second successful retest of the multi-year low at 20.83 that was made in January. The stock did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 25.74 is expected to be seen this week. There is intraweek support at 24.66 that is short-term pivotal and indicative and it should not be broken. This means that this week could (actually should) see the stock begin to recover. Indicative and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 29.37. If the stock does hold support and begins to recover, the 29.37 would be the immediate (1-3 weeks) objective. LXRX generated a red week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.64 will be seen this week. The stock continues to trade (for the past 12 weeks) in a sideways trading range between 1.48 and 2.04 but the 1.48 low has now been tested successfully on one occasion and if that retest low at 1.59 does not get broken and the stock rallies above this week's high next week, it will become a 2nd successful retest. The stock is showing a multiple (4 weeks) intraweek high resistance area between 2.02 and 2.04 that is a magnet for a breakout if the bears fail to break support this week. Having said all of the above, if by any chance the bears win, the monthly chart shows decent intramonth support at 1.31, meaning that is probably the worst that could happen if this area here breaks for any reason. To the upside and if the 2.04 level breaks, there is open air above to 2.89. PYPL made a new 8-month high in February and since then it has done nothing but go down. The stock closed out the month on the low of the month, suggesting further downside below last month's low at 57.21 will be seen this month. On that chart, the stock has pivotal intramonth support at 55.77, which should not get broken without some new negative fundamental piece of news. The stock seems to be doing the same thing as BABA and JD, meaning that it seems to be building a support base from which an uptrend could begin in the near future. The stock does show a mountain of intraweek support between 57.13 and 57.44 and having gone down to 57.21 last week, it is in that support area now. If this level breaks, there is further support at 56.47 and then pivotal at 55.77. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 60.76, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 60.64. It seems likely that the stock is at a support that will only be broken if new negative fundamental news comes out. SNDL generated a breakout in April and in looking at the monthly chart, the breakout was from the 1.90 level. On Friday, the stock closed at 1.90 and that means that if a green monthly close occurs at the end of July, a successful retest of the breakout level will have occurred and it will give the bulls strong ammunition for higher prices, with the monthly chart showing open air to 3.36 and a decent-to-high probability of 4.76 by the end of the year. In looking at the weekly chart, the stock generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.96 will be seen this week. If that does occur, the stock will also be showing 2 successful retests of the 1.75 low seen in April and the chart does show open air above 1.96 to 2.19 and stronger at 2.36. It does seem that this week could be pivotal. Levels to watch are 1.96 and 1.81. Which ever gets broken, will be indicative. SNOW generated a key positive reversal week, having made a new 17-month intraweek low and then closing above the previous week's high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 135.73 is expected to be seen. This was a pivotal week given that the stock had reached levels of support that if broken would have been extremely negative. The stock ended up generating a 9.8% rally from the low of the week and generating a clear buy signal on the daily chart when it closed above 130.67 (which will now be the new daily close support level from here on out). There is open air above up to the 140.84 level (based on a daily close. If the bulls are able to generate a daily close above that price, 145.45 would be the next level and above that, the $156-$160 level would become the target. I do expect the stock to trade between $140 and $130 for the next week or two. VWDRY generated a short-term breakdown given that the 8-month intraweek low at 8.28 got broken this week. The stock has fallen 23.5% over the past 4 weeks and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.60 will be seen. The long-term outlook has not changed (remains bullish) but the short-term has changed, meaning that another couple of months will likely pass before the stock recuperates all of these losses and makes a new high. Both the monthly and weekly charts have the same downside objective, which is the $7 level, likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, once that level is reached, a recovery rally will likely begin. There is a clear up channel bottom at 7.00 that once it is reached, the upside objective will be the top of the channel which is presently at $11 but it is not likely the stock will get to the top of the channel for another 4-6 months and by then the top of the channel will be at $12, which has always been the upside objective since this trade was first started. The 7.60 level is going to be pivotal for the next week or two. If the stock trades below it, the $7 level with be the downside objective and when it is trading above it, the 8.25 level will be the objective. Any daily close above the 200-day MA (currently at 8.68) would give full control back to the bulls (this is the pivotal MA level to watch for throughout July and August). ZLAB got down and closed the runaway gap down at 17.06, meaning that the entire rally based on the better than expected earnings report has been negated. This is potentially a negative that could take the stock all the way down to close the breakaway gap down at 14.23. Nonetheless, the probabilities of that happening are quite low as there has been consistent buying interest in the $17-$18 level during the period where the Chinese market has gone down. With the Chinese market not likely to have much more downside, it seems difficult (if not impossible) for the bears to take the stock down to the $14 level. Having said that, the stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below 16.95 is expected to be seen this week. There is some support around the 16.70 level that is a target but is also short-term important. Holding of that support and then generating a daily close above 18.00 would give the edge back to the bulls. As such, the two levels to watch (on a daily closing basis) are 16.70 and 18.00.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.33. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.30. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.67. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.553 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.85. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 4.61. 6) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 77.62. Stock closed on Friday at 72.00. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.90. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 25.85. 10) PYPL - Averaged long at 49.465 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 56.65. Stock closed on Friday at 58.03. 11) INTC - Purchased at 30.34. Stock closed on Friday at 30.97. 12) SNOW - Averaged long at 137.343 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 135.09.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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