Issue #864
June 2, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Mini correction likely over. Important indicative week ahead.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 38686
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5277
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 18536
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2070

This past week turned out to be a totally chart oriented week where the indexes all got down to the downside chart objectives and then generated a bounce to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the expected correction and reversing the indexes down from an overbought condition was accomplished. The DOW had a downside objective of 38039 and the low of the week was 38000, the SPX had a downside objective of retesting the previous all-time high weekly close at 5254 and it got down to 5191 but then closed on Friday at 5277, the NASDAQ had a downside objective of retesting the previous all-time high weekly close at 18339 and it got down to 18139 but then closed at 18536, and the RUT had a downside objective of retesting the weekly close breakout level at 2036 and it did get down to 2036 but then closed at 2070. On a weekly closing basis, the SPX, the NAZ, and the RUT could still generate a red close next week but if above the levels mentioned above are not broken, the uptrends would remain intact. Nonetheless, all indexes either closed slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range or in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that going above last week's high this week, on an intraweek basis, is expected to occur. In the DOW that is above 39028, in the SPX that is above 5315, in the NASDAQ that is above 18875 and in the RUT that is above 2086.

Having said all of that above, this week does have some important economic reports scheduled. On Monday, the ISM index report comes out and it is expected to be 49.6%. If above 50% or below 47%, it could have some catalytic power. Given that it is due to come out at 49.6%, the probabilities favor it to be a non-event but the possibilities are higher that the report could be catalytically positive than the opposite. The JOBS report comes out on Friday and it is expected to be 185k. A number above 200k would likely be a negative for the market and below 170k, a positive for the market.

It is doubtful that either number will be sufficiently out of line to cause some fundamental change in the minds of the traders, meaning that once again, the charts are going to be important this week. The bulls definitely maintain their edge, especially when considering that the SPX closed on Friday just 64 points (26 points above last week's high) from making a new all-time intraweek high and just 44 points from making a new all-time daily closing high.

Changing the subject for a second, the NASDAQ has been the leader to the upside recently but mostly because the Tech industry has been the strongest. Nonetheless and among the Tech stocks, it has been mostly NVDA and the AI industry that has been the positive catalyst, as such, the stock is the key to this market right now. NVDA reported better than expected earnings a couple of weeks back and generated not only a new all-time high but did it with a breakaway/runaway gap formation. The stock generated a red close this past week and did get down to 1069.63 and the runaway gap is at 1064.75. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range (midpoint being $1099 and it closed at $1096), suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low than above last week's high at 1127.17. If the latter occurs, the retest of the runaway gap will be successful and continuing the uptrend would likely ensue. If the former occurs "and" the gap is closed, you will see selling come in. The average fundamental price target of the stock analysts for the rest of the year is $1197, meaning that the stock could move up another $100 (per share) from Friday's close. Nonetheless and on the opposite side, if the stock closes the runaway gap, the breakaway gap at 960.20 ($136 per share lower than Friday's close) would be the target, meaning that it is even less than a 1-1 risk/reward ratio. This does make this stock very vulnerable (at this time) and because it is the "key" stock to the overall index market, it makes the market vulnerable as well. The bulls need to be committed to making a new all-time weekly closing high this week. On a daily closing basis, the all-time daily closing high is 1148.25 but on the weekly closing chart, all the bulls need to do is generate a green weekly close next Friday. The latter is a must, while the former is a potential target that does not absolutely need to be broken "this" week. As such, NVDA is the key to the market this week.

As I stated above, this is a week where there are 2 potentially catalytic fundamental reports due out (on Monday and on Friday) but that are not expected to be "way out of line", meaning that it is likely to be all about the charts. Having said that, the Jobs report is always the #1 report of the month and given that it does not come out until Friday, the indexes are likely to trade on both sides of the coin throughout the week with a bit more green than red being seen but red being seen nonetheless. In looking at the chart of the NASDAQ, there is some intraweek resistance at 18627 and then stronger at 18752. If the former is broken, the bulls will gain a slight edge for the rest of the week. If the latter is broken, the bulls will be committed to makin new highs If the former is not broken, the downside target for the first 4 days of the week is 18303. If the latter resistance is broken, then the downside target for the week would be the 18462 level.

These are the items involved in the trading this week, barring any unforeseen event happening in the world.

HSI is the Chinese index and for the next few weeks or months, I will now be giving you updates on that market, given the amount of Chinese stocks presently held. The HSI index generated a 2nd red close week in a row and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18067 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support at 18044 and then nothing until 17553 but on a daily and weekly closing basis, there is a fair amount of support between 17950 and 18079, meaning that if this move down was simply a correction to the recent mini breakout (9-month new high), this area of support should hold. A daily close below the 17950 level though, would suggest 17650 would be seen. To the upside, there is some minor daily close resistance at 18313 and then slightly pivotal at 18608. A close above the former would suggest that "perhaps" the correction is over, and a close above the latter, would confirm that the correction is over. At this time though, the bears have a slight edge.


GOLD(Aug 24 chart) generated another red weekly close, though it was a small move as it closed $2 lower than a week ago. Nonetheless, Gold did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2441 will be seen this week. On a negative note, Gold has built what looks like a bearish flag formation, with the flagpole being the 3-day drop from $2477 down to $2350 and the flag being the 5-day trading range between $2356 and $2341. A clean break below $2341 does give a downside objective of $2234 (if and when it is a flag formation). Either way, the bears presently have the edge and if the intraweek close support at $2308 ($2324 on a daily closing basis) is broken, there is no support below until the $2229 level is reached. There is daily close resistance at $2379, which if broken would negate the short-term bearish outlook.

OIL generated another (2nd in a row) negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high (a new 4-week intraweek high) and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.67 will be seen this week. This type of action suggests that the bulls are "trying" to rally Oil but are failing and that without some type of positive fundamental news, Oil will have further downside coming. It is interesting to note that the week's intraweek low was 76.67 and that pivotal daily close support is at 76.87, and that if there is further downside seen this week (especially if below the established intraweek support at 76.15 is broken), that the doors to the downside will open widely. The chart seems to suggest that is what will happen, "but" it has to be noted that over the past 4 months, there have been 7 different occasions where Oil dropped down to between 75.78 and 76.89 without further downside occurring, meaning that chart support here "is" decent. Having said that, a break of this area of support offers totally "open air" down to 72.47 and if 71.41 is broken, things could get really negative for Oil. At this time, the only thing that will negate this outlook is a daily close above 80.06. That does not seem like a high possibility right now, meaning that one of the two other choices is what is likely to happen 1) a sideways trend between $76 and $80 or 2) a break down to $72, with the latter being the most probable of the two.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week. This week is likely indicative and there is no clear view as to what will happen, especially since the key report (Jobs) for the week does not come out until Friday.

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2022: Profit of $6,126 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2023: Profit of $20,877 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 5/1

Loss of Loss of $3.234 using 100 shares per mention

Closed out profitable trades for May per 100 shares per mention

GME (long) $1677

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for May, per 100 shares and after commissions $1.677

Closed out losing trades for May per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

AMZN (short) $163
XOM (short) $35

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

AMZN (short) $1151
DD (sahort) $741

Total Loss for May, per 100 shares, including commissions $2,090

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/1

BABA (long) $414
INTC (long) $51

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

JD (long) $73
GCI (long) $268
BABA (long) $580
VWDRY (long) $150
ZLAB (long) $1336
LXRX (long) $34

Total $2,906

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/1

PRAA (long) $325
SNOW (long) $1012

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

SNDA (long) $50
ENG (long) $6

Total $1,393

Status of trades for month of May per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of $1,100

Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 5/31

Loss of $2,134 per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

BABA generated a new 4-week intraweek low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.17 will be seen this week. The reasons for the correction are 1) a weak Chinese index market and 2) a $5 billion bond offering that the company issued in order to buy back stocks. For these 2 reasons, the stock has fallen 14.7% over the past 3 weeks. The stock closed on Friday, slightly below the 200-day MA, currently at 78.65 (closed at 78.34), meaning that the bulls need to negate that break on Monday. On a good piece of news, the $5 billion bond offering (to purchase the stock in the future at $105, which is 30% above Friday's closing price) has now been done and there have been other positive news on the company released recently, suggesting that the pressure of the weakness seen might now be over. This leaves the weakness being seen in the Chinese market as the only negative left out there. The Chinese market is now at one support and the next support below is not too far away, suggesting there is not much more downside to be seen. This does suggest that some new buying interest at this level should be seen this week. There is an open gap below at 76.25 that might be a magnet, but then again this is a stock that shows a lot of gap action repeatedly, meaning that closing gaps is not as much of a magnet as it is in other stocks. Evidently the key this week is the 200-day MA. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 80.20 but in this case, if it does get broken, it would suggest the downside run correction is over. Intraweek support below is found at 76.56 and pivotal at 75.22.

GCI made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing high but closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 3.66 than above last week's high at 3.93. Having said that, the stock has once again (for the 3rd week in a row) confirmed the weekly close breakout from 3.53 and for the 5th day in a row, the daily close breakout above 3.72, meaning that the bulls remain in control in spite of the recent weakness in the index market. The chart is showing a breakaway gap at 3.39 that should not be closed, meaning that gap is now an indicative support level. The chart shows open air above until the 4.50-4.80 level is reached, meaning that if the index market starts to recover, this stock could be one of the leaders to the upside.

INTC generated a mostly uneventful week but one thing that did happen is that the stock made a new 3-week intraweek low "but" did not break the recent low at 29.73 (low last week was 29.93) and did close out the week on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.37 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low will become the required/needed retest of the 11-month low at 29.73 and that should give the bulls new ammunition. Confirmation of a bottom to this correction having been built, is a rally above the most recent intraweek high at 32.42. When (and if) that happens, there is open air to 33.84 (minor intraweek resistance), then at 37.11 (minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance) and then 40.07 (indicative an pivotal resistance). To the downside, any break now below 29.73 would be a decent negative.

JD generated a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing low but the trading range was extremely minor (and small) as it was the smallest in the last 15 weeks. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 29.04 than above last week's high at 30.32. On a decent positive note, the weekly close breakout level at 28.89 was not reached and much less broken, suggesting the bulls remain in short-term control at this time. The 200-day MA is currently at 27.65 and that remains a potential intraweek magnet to the downside. On the opposite side of the coin, any rally now above 30.46 would suggest the downside correction is over. In using the daily closing chart, the 28.89 level is also meaningful and any close below 28.14 would turn the chart in favor of the bears.

LXRX generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.75 will be seen this week. As it is, the green weekly close has made the previous week's close at 1.62 into a successful retest of the 15-week low weekly close at 1.58, which in turn is now the 2nd successful retest of the original weekly close breakout at 1.53, suggesting that the downside is not about over. A weekly close above 1.79 would now confirm all of this base-building action and open the door for the beginning of a recovery-from-this-correction action, with open air above to 2.17 but likely more upside to the 2.70-2.90 level. Daily close support is now found at 1.61 and negatively pivotal at 1.54.

PRAA made a new 26-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.31 will be seen this week. Having said that, the week was quite uneventful overall as the trading range was minute (smallest in at least the last 3 years - it was $.96 cents and the average has been $3) and the low made was only $.08 cents below the previous week's low and only $.15 cents below the previous week's weekly close. This does suggest that the selling interest has died down, especially considering what the index market did. Having said that, the stock is at a pivotal support level at 21.50, which if broken decidedly, will give the bears control. The 200-day MA is currently at 21.80 and the bulls need to establish themselves above that line "this" week. Minor but short-term pivotal and indicative resistance is found at 22.74. If that is broken, there is open air above to 24.69 and then up at 25.61 and indicative at 26.29. To the downside, there is no present support below 21.50 until 20.99 is reached and a break of the latter will likely result in the stock getting down to at least the $18 area.

SNDL generated a totally uneventful week in which nothing new was decided. The stock remained above the short-term pivotal weekly close support at 2.20 (closed at 2.22), meaning the bulls remain in short-term control. The stock closed very slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 2.28 than below last week's low at 2.14. Intraweek support is at 2.15, which if broken would suggest a drop below 2.00 will be seen. The 200-day MA is currently at 1.85. Intraweek resistance is found at 2.30 and if broken, a rally to 2.55 is likely to be seen.

SNOW made a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 133.59 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 20% in value over the past 2 weeks and 44% in value over the past 3 months. The recent drop was because the company released lower than expected earnings and because a breach in their security was announced. Having said that, the lower earnings guidelines given by the company is because they are spending large amounts of money to incorporate AI into their systems, which means that long term, the stock should move higher and perhaps substantially higher. Based on 12 analysts following the company, the average 12-month prediction is for a price of 207.57, which is a 48% rise. The next intraweek support area of consequence is at 128.56. On a daily closing basis, there is support found at 135.48, again at 134.31 and then decent at 131.46 and likely unbreakable (due to the fundamentals) at 129.16 (stock closed on Friday at 136.18). Daily close resistance is now found at 140.40 and short-term indicative at 145.45. Probabilities for this week favor an intraweek drop to 131.97 (while that margin calls get met) and then a rally up to 146.74 later on in the week. This is a highly tradeable stock to the upside at this time (lots of volatility and long-term positive fundamentals.

VWDRY generated a reversal week, having made a new 21-week intraweek high but then closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.26 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the fundamental news continues to be positive and the stock did accomplish one important feat this week having closed the weekly gap down at 9.71 from January when a negative earnings report came out. Closure of the gap (high last week was 9.84) does take away a strong negative and does open the door for further upside. Intraweek support of some consequence is found between 8.77 and 9.01 that should no longer be broken from now on. Probabilities favor a positive reversal week up this week and a short-term objective of reaching the 200-week MA, currently at 10.10, within the next 1-3 weeks.

ZLAB generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17.52 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support at 17.41, which if held and a rally from there occurs, it will be a sign that the bulls are gaining back the short-term edge. If broken though, and the runaway gap at 17.06 is closed, it will give the bears new ammunition. Pivotal short-term resistance is now found at last week's high at 19.19, which if broken would give an immediate objective of at least 20.16. The major key pivotal resistance level is presently at 22.89 and the short-term pivotal support is at 17.06. All recent news has been generally positive to the stock.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.76.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.60.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.37.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.553 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.70.

5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 3.76.

6) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 77.62. Stock closed on Friday at 78.34.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.22.

9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 29.62.

10) PRAA - Averaged long at 23.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.58.

11) INTC - Purchased at 30.34. Stock closed on Friday at 30.85.

12) SNOW - Purchased at 148.50 and at 144.98. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 135.18


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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