Issue #860
May 5, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Action seen this past week suggests market will trade sideways for the next few weeks.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 38675 All indexes generated another green weekly close and all closed at or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 38808, SPX above 5130, NAZ above 17926 and RUT above 2054). The reason for the rally was a Fed announcement that was slightly dovish and a positive earnings report on AAPL and AMZN. The Jobs report also came out and it was worse than expected (which should have been a negative to the market) but it actually was seen as bullish as it meant that the Fed is likely to cut rates (twice) this year. The market has been strongly dependent (and pivotal) on what the Fed is going to do and not so much on the actual economy. Given that all the important economic reports for the month and all of the important earnings reports for the quarter are now out, it was expected that the traders would be making some decisions this past week, but that was not clearly defined as the bulls did generate a good market rally on Friday that did suggest that the correction is over (and that the bottom to the correction is in) but failed to do enough to the upside to suggest clearly that the uptrend will re-start. There is one more economic report due out on Wednesday May 15th (inflation report - CPI) that could tip the scales in one direction or the other but otherwise, there is nothing left that is possibly catalytical that could give a clear direction. May is not a month that is seasonally known for being positive to the bulls. Over the past 15 years (while the uptrend has been in effect), May has been mostly a "nothing" month with appreciation in value of no more than at most 1%. Nonetheless, prior to that, May was a seasonally negative month and given that the uptrend seems to have ended this year, it could end up being a negative month once again. Either way, it is not likely that it will generate new all-time highs or new 2024 lows. After the Jobs report came out on Friday and the initial reaction was uneventful, the bulls were able to generate a rally of consequence right after the indexes opened (for example, the DOW went from up 190 to up over 500 points). It did seem that the bulls would be able to "make a statement" that would mean that a new all-time high would occur during the month. Nonetheless, after the first 30 minutes of trading and generating a strong rally, the indexes fell asleep the rest of the day and the bulls were able to make a small statement of strength, but not enough of a statement that would suggest new all-time highs were to come. The DOW had 2 weekly close resistance levels to break at 38714 and at 39131 and neither got broken as the index closed at 38675. The SPX also had two weekly close resistance levels to break at 5117 and at 5137 and the first did get broken (index closed at 5127) but the second one did not. The same thing with the NASDAQ as it too had 2 levels to break at 17808 and at 17962 and it closed at 17890. The RUT had resistance at 2033 and at 2039 and closed at 2035. What does this mean for this week? Well, that is a question that is truly unanswerable at this time. There are no economic or earnings reports due out this week that could give the traders enough new information with which to rally further or sell off. The indexes are likely going to go above last week's highs on Monday but after that occurs, there is nothing close by on the charts that could be pivotal until Friday's closes. In looking at the daily closing charts, the DOW has daily close resistance at 38797 and stronger at 39131 and daily close support at 38503. The SPX has daily close resistance at 5147 and again at 5175 and daily close support at 5116. The NASDAQ has daily close resistance 17962 and at 18004 and daily close support at 17782 and the RUT has daily close resistance at 2059 and daily close support at 2016. None of these levels are "pivotal" but they are indicative. I do believe that this rally will fail but the action seen has given enough ammunition (and fundamental information) so that the bears have lost their "edge". This means that the probabilities favor the indexes trading sideways for the next few months until the June (or even July's) Fed rate decision.
OIL generated 2 failure signals against the bears this week (on the weekly closing chart), which strongly suggests that the bull rally is now over. This means that the recent high weekly close at 86.91 (87.67 on an intraweek basis) is now a top to the recent rally and that it will not be broken unless some positive fundamental change of consequence occurs. Oil closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 77.95 will be seen this week. There is very minor intraweek support at 76.79 and at 75.74 but meaningful support is not found until 72.25 is reached. To the upside and on a daily closing basis, resistance is now found between 79.97 and 80.63 (closed on Friday at 79.98). If that resistance level is broken, the weekly closing chart shows important (and now unlikely to be broken) resistance at 82.79. The monthly chart suggests it will be a down month (below last month's close at 81.93) but that the pivotal monthly close support at 71.65, will not be broken. As such, probabilities favor Oil trading between 72.50 and 82.50 for the next 4-6 weeks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The action seen this week in the index market and in quite a few of the previously oversold stocks suggests that for the next month of two, the market will not have a clear direction. This means that this is an opportunity for "carefully selected" stocks to shine (as a few started to do this past week). As such, I have taken time this week to try to find some of those stocks. Having said that, several of the presently held stocks (such as BABA, GCI, JD, SNDL and ZLAB) can be added to as they fit into that category.
Nonetheless, here are a few mentions on stocks that I researched this weekend and that can be considered for purchase.
SNOW Friday Closing Price - 159.32
SNOW is a cloud-based data platform that is using AI to increase its efficiency. With AI being a "hot" industry for the future and this company being oversold and likely undervalued, it is one to purchase now. The stock is presently oversold and according to several sources, strongly undervalued. This stock fell in value 40% between February and April (from $237 to $144) but has now started to recover. On Thursday, one of the rating companies (BNP) raised its price target to $200.
SNOW made an all-time high in November 2021 at $405 and then proceeded to fall precipitously to $110 over the following 8 months. Since then, that low has now been tested successfully on 4 occasions with drops down to 119.27. to 128.56, to 138.40 and to 145.55 just 4 weeks ago. This action has been successful in building a very solid bottom that is a base for a strong breakout to occur sometime over the next 3-6 months. Having said that, this mention today is not about a breakout occurring at this time but about a rally to test one of the highs made over the past two years, which are either at 193.94 or at 205.66. I would expect a 5th retest of the lows to occur thereafter, followed by a breakout above the 2-year high at 237.72 and a rally up to at least the $330 level. This kind of chart action over the past 2 years, followed by being in a very "hot" industry for the future, as well as this being a strong company in that industry, suggests this is a stock to be traded consistently over the next year or two.
SNOW made a new 23-week low 4 weeks ago and that low does require a retest of it. With the stock reporting earnings on May 22nd (3 weeks from now), it is not likely that a desired entry point will happen this week, given that the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range on Friday and further upside is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the following week, the probabilities do favor a retest occurring and that will likely be when the desired entry point is reached.
The desired entry point into SNOW will be somewhere between 150.62 and 153.00. The stop loss point will be at 146.65 and the objective will be 193.94, meaning a risk of no more than $635 for a profit potential of at least $4394 (per 100 shares). It is a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
GME Friday Closing Price - 16.47
GME is a specialty retailer that provides games and entertainment products through its stores and ecommerce platforms in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Europe. This is the stock that gained fame in 2021 when a short-squeeze occurred that took the stock from $4 to $120 in just 3 weeks. Since then, the stock has been in a full blast downtrend that seems to have ended 4 weeks ago and that caused the stock to make a new 18-week high last week and generate the first buy signal (on the weekly closing chart) in the last 10 months.
GME closed on the high of the week last week and further upside above last week's high at 17.45 is expected to be seen this week. The stock closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 15.31, for the first time in the last 10 months and that makes the stock a buy (based on the chart). There has been no news on the stock to support this move but it does need to be mentioned that this stock has been proven to be volatile and easily manipulated, and presently the bulls have gained an edge that they are not likely to give up anytime soon. The company does not report earnings until June 25th, meaning that for the next 6+ weeks, the bulls are going to try to make "something" happen.
On a chart basis, GME shows pivotal intraweek resistance at 18.58 (18.17 on a daily closing basis) and above that, it has open air until the 200-week MA, currently at 25.29, is reached, That will be the objective of this trade but given what happened in 2021, it could be a lot more.
The 200-day MA (at 15.31) is now going to be support and there are two previous intraweek lows From Jan 23 and Mch 23) at 15.41 and at 15.53 that the bulls cannot afford to let break. In addition and in looking at the daily closing chart, the breakout occurred at 14.95, meaning that a close below that level would negate the breakout. As such, the stop loss on this trade is at 14.65. It is highly likely that at some point this week, the 200-day MA will be tested and those established support levels seen, meaning that the desired entry point will be below 15.54.
With the desired entry point into GME being 15.54 and the stop loss being at 14.65, the risk on this trade is $89 (per 100 shares). The objective is 25.29, meaning a profit potential of $975 (per 100 shares). This is then a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. ( My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating is low because there has been no fundamental news to support this breakout and this has been a manipulated stock in the past). Having said that, the profit potential based on the charts is high and it could be substantially higher given the history of the stock.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 4/1 Loss of Loss of $7,256 using 100 shares per mention Closed out profitable trades for April per 100 shares per mention
AMZN (short) $411
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
SIMO (long) $1500 Total Profit for April, per 100 shares and after commissions $2656 Closed out losing trades for April per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
SCCO (short) $43
SIMO (long) $118 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. GILD (long) $368 Total Loss for April, per 100 shares, including commissions $529 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 5/1
AMZN (short) $1480
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
JD (long) $150 Total $2,355 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 5/1
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
GCI (long) $2 Total $460 Status of trades for month of April per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Profit of $4,022
Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 4/30Loss of $3,234 per 100 shares.
AMZN reported earnings and they were better than expected and the stock rallied 6% in value from the low of the week. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 187.87 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did make a new all-time weekly closing high at 186.21 (above the previous high made 4 weeks ago), and above the previous all-time high made 10 months ago at 185.97. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to make a new all-time intraweek high as that is at 189.77 and that is still $2.10 above the high made last week. Having said that though, the bulls have failed to make a statement that the bull trend will continue as the new all-time weekly closing highs have only been a few cents higher, in spite of the good earnings report that came out this week and the rally in the index market. The stock did gap up on Friday (from 185.10) but then closed on the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 185.42 will be seen on Monday. If the stock closes red on Monday, a successful retest of the all-time daily closing high at 189.07 will have occurred and if by any chance a close below the most recent high daily close at 180.96 occurs, a failure signal against the bulls will be given. The bulls are now committed to making a new all-time high (it is a sink or swim situation). Evidently, the stock needs the overall market to go higher to be able to accomplish it. Based on the recent action and on the bullish earnings report, the short positions should have been (or should be) covered. Nonetheless, I waited for this week to make that decision and it is likely that decision will be made on Monday before the close. BABA made a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 81.42 will be seen this week. The stock generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the previous weekly close support at 79.62, meaning that the breakdown that occurred in November has now been negated. More importantly, the downtrend that started in October 2020 (from a high of 304.69) and that ended in October 2022, now shows 2 successful retests of it and that suggests that a short-term uptrend could begin shortly. To do that, the bulls need to generate a weekly close above 85.31. If that occurs and is confirmed, a rally up to the $95-$98 level would likely be seen over the following 2-4 months. This breakout is not likely to occur this week or the next but could occur before the end of the month. As a matter of information, the stock could get up to the $113 level over the next 6 months and if that level is broken on a monthly closing basis, A longer term uptrend will being and have as an objective, a rally back up to the $200 level (which could be seen over the next couple of years). As for as this week, the bulls must now stay above (on a daily and weekly closing basis) the $80 demilitarized zone (79.70-80.30). The 200-day MA is currently at 80.00 and there is short-term pivotal daily close support at 79.84 and pivotal at 78.23. If a weekly close now occurs below 77.51, all of this accomplishment by the bulls will be erased. DD reported earnings this week and they were much better than expected and a new 27-month intraweek and daily closing highs were made. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to confirm that breakout on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the previous weekly closing high made in August at 77.97 (closed at 77.67). The stock did close near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 79.19 is expected to be seen this week. There is established intraweek resistance at 80.50 (minor) and at 81.57 (minor to decent) that could be seen this week. Having said that, the failure to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart is a glaring sign of weakness, especially considering that the earnings report was so much better than expected. Simply stated, there was no reason for the weekly close failure. The first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside as the stock closed on the lower half of Friday's trading range. Testing of the gap down at 76.16 is likely to be the objective. There is no established intraweek support until 75.41 (old support) and more recent and more important at 74.92. If the latter is broken, closure of the gap at 72.42 would be the target and that certainly would take away whatever ammunition that the bulls obtained from the earnings report. The stock was shorted at 76.80 and it is a tough call on what action to take this week. Evidently if the stock gets above 81.57, the short will need to be covered but anything less than that is a difficult thing to decide on. Each person will need to make their own decision on this. I have given you the chart parameters in play for this week. ENG continued to trade in a totally sideways fashion and this past week, the stock had a minute $.11 cent trading range that was not indicative in any way. It is expected that the company will report earnings on Thursday but as has been the case with this company in the past, that date is not "set in stone". The same pivotal levels of support and resistance at 1.35 and 2.23 remain in place. If no earnings report is announced, it is doubtful anything new will happen. It is a somewhat pivotal earnings report as it was announced 6 weeks ago that the company was making changes of consequence to negate the negatives of the past 16 months. Those changes should begin to show whether they will help or hurt the company. GCI reported earnings and they were better than expected and a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high was made. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 3.22 is expected to be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 3.33 and a midterm pivotal intraweek resistance level is found at 3.60 (3.43 on a weekly closing basis and 3.52 on a daily closing basis), which if broken would offer open air to 4.46. To the downside, daily close support is found at 2.72, which if broken would negate this move up. With the better-than-expected earnings (which gives the bulls tangible ammunition), the bulls are somewhat committed to break the above resistance levels this week. If those are not broken "this week", it will not be a big negative but it would delay the breakout for another 3-6 (or more) weeks as it would mean more work needs to be done over the next few weeks in order to build more (and near) support so that the MA can be broken. MA's are always important levels that normally take 2-3 attempts before breakage occurs (if it is to occur), which means that if the bulls want to make a statement off of this earnings report, they need to do it this week. JD generated another new 6-month intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 32.94 will be seen this week. In addition and on a positive note, the breakout above the 200-day MA (currently at 28.23) was tested successfully on Wednesday, meaning that line is now important support from here on in. Having said that, the bulls were not able to make a longer-term statement as they closed on Friday just below a pivotal weekly close support at 33.10 (closed at 32.87), from which (when broken) caused the stock to drop all the way down to 20.82. A close above that level this Friday would be a statement of longer term uptrend occurring. A red close on Friday would suggest that the MA would once again be tested and a process of building a new support level would be occurring, which would take weeks to build. If the stock closes above 33.10 on Friday, a rally to the 40.68 level would likely occur and the 33.10 level would then become the new weekly close support. As such, this week is very short-term important to the stock. The bulls do have the upper hand, given that on the daily closing chart, that same level of weekly close support at 33.10 is at 32.10 and having closed at 32.87 on Friday, it can be said that the level was broken. Nonetheless, that does mean that the 32.10 level is now a daily close support level that if broken, the stock will head down but if not broken, the stock will continue higher the rest of the week. LXRX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 14-week low but then going above the previous week's high and closing green. The stock also gave a "small' buy signal, having generated a daily close above the previous daily closing high at 1.71 (closed on Friday at 1.74). Having said that, the company reported earnings on Friday and they were "as expected" with no surprises. The initial reaction was positive and a 2.02 high was made, but then as the day progressed, the stock fell back and closed on the exact middle of the day's trading range, meaning there are equal chances of going below last week's low at 1.48 than above last week's high at 2.02. The reason for the fall back is that one of the rating companies reiterated their "hold" rating on the company and that disinflated the rally. Having said that, the green weekly close is a positive as it confirmed that the original weekly close breakout from December at 1.53 has been retested successfully with the weekly close the previous week at 1.58. This will give the bulls new ammunition for some recovery rally to occur. A rally back up to 1.91 (on a weekly closing basis) is now highly likely to occur. A close above that level, would suggest further upside to 2.17 would be seen, and a close above that level would suggest that a rally back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 2.91 could occur. All of this action to be seen over the next 3 months until the next earnings report comes out. The 200-day MA, currently at 1.67, now is support (on a daily closing basis) and should not be broken if the above objectives are to be available. The earnings report does give the bulls the edge for the short-term. SNDL made a new 18-month weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.52 will be seen this week. The reason why this occurred is that the Federal Drug Enforcement Administration recommended this week that Mariguana should be taken down from a Scheduled "1" drug to a Scheduled "3" drug which means a less regulated drug. This is good news for the Cannabis industry in general and with this company being one of the strongest in the industry, it does open the door for much further upside. There is open air above to the 3.00 to 3.13 level and if that level gets broken on a weekly closing basis, a rally to the 200-week MA, currently at 4.45 would then be likely. The previous weekly closing high is 2.20 and that is now the new support, which should hold up as long as the recommendation of the FDA does not get refused. In using the daily closing chart, this week is quite important. There is pivotal resistance at 2.50 and now pivotal support at 2.19. VWDRY generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.40 will be seen this week. The company reported earnings and they were less than expected and the stock dropped 7% in value. Having said that, full-year expectations were not affected and the outlook overall remains bullish. As such, the earnings report did not cause the stock to make a new low on this recent downtrend and that has to be seen as a positive. The recent intraweek low is at 8.28 and given that it was a new 24-week low, chart-wise it requires/needs a successful retest of it before new buying comes in. As such, that is what the traders are likely looking to achieve this week. On a positive note, the stock did break the 200-day MA, currently at 8.52, on Thursday (the day the report came out) but negated that break on Friday, having closed above it. As such, if the 8.40 low is broken on Monday (or any day this week), it will probably be on an intraweek basis only. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 9.07/9.13, which if broken would offer a minimum objective of 9.50. The 200-week MA is currently at 10.07, and that could be the objective to be reached over the next 4-6 weeks. If the 8.28 level is broken, there is established intraweek support at 8.08. It is doubtful that level will be broken. This does suggest that until the next earnings report or news comes out (of which this company is receiving consistently), the overall trading range could be $8-$10. ZLAB generated another green weekly close but then closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 15.67 will be seen this week. If that does occur, it would likely be the required/needed retest of the all-time intraweek low at 13.48. The stock does show an open gap at 14.23 that would be the downside objective (if the stock does goes below last week's low). Nonetheless, the company reports earnings after the close on Wednesday and it is unlikely the gap will be closed before then and if the earnings report is better than expected, it would be highly likely that another gap up would be created making a breakaway/runaway gap formation that would offer an immediate upside to above the $21 level. The company did announce this past week that no further selling of shares would be done by the principals of the company. In addition, the bulls were able to generate a break of the most recent intraweek high, suggesting that a bottom might now be set. The bulls were not able to generate a buy signal on the daily closing chart, given that the bulls failed to close above 16.72 but that level will be pivotal daily close resistance all week. Daily close support is presently at 15.80 and if that level holds up until the earnings report, it will likely mean that the earnings report is likely to be better than expected. Nonetheless, with the news given, the extremely low price the stock is trading at, and the fact that all rating companies have the stock as a buy at this price, only a negative earnings report would cause the recent low to be tested. Even then, the probabilities do not favor a new all-time low to be made.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.25`. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.67. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.64. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.74. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 3.17. 6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 81.33. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.35. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 32.87. 10) AMZN - Shorted at 177.71. Averaged short at 182.405 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 186.21. 11) DD - Shorted at 76.80. Stop loss at 78.35. Stock closed on Friday at 77.67. 12) AMZN - Shorted at 183.26. Covered shorts at $179.15. Profit on the trade of $411 (per 100 shares). 13) AMZN - Shorted at 182.61. Covered shorts at 184.24. Loss on the trade of $163 (per 100 shares).
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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