Issue #858
April 21, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears gain short-term control.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 37986 The indexes all made new 10-13-week intraweek lows this past week and have cemented the idea that a top to this rally has been found. The Tech sector took the biggest hit with NVDA alone dropping 14% in value and NFLX, (which reported disappointing earnings) dropping 11% in value, causing the NASDAQ to drop 5.6%. On the other side of the coin, the SPX only dropped 3% in value, the RUT dropped 2.6%, and the DOW did not drop at all. It was evident by the big dichotomy between the indexes, that this drop is not yet a sign that a bear trend has begun, but a sign that the traders are shifting back to safer stocks (which the DOW possesses) and not simply being sellers overall. The SPX and the NASDAQ both gave new sell signals on the weekly closing chart and with the exception of the DOW, they all closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low (SPX below 4953, NAZ below 16973, and RUT below 1931). The DOW closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 37611 than above last week's high at 38386. The key this week is going to be the NASDAQ and in a smaller way, the RUT. The NAZ is now likely to be testing the previous all-time high at 16572, which is 477 points below Friday's close. With the index having had a +1000-point trading range last week, such a drop is highly likely to occur. The next pivotal intraweek support is at 16249, and if that level gets broken, it will open a new can of worms. At this time, that does not seem like a probability or even a possibility. Having said that, the probability of the index closing at (or near) the previous weekly closing high this week or next is relatively high. This does suggest another red week is to be seen this week. By the same token, the RUT closed on Friday at the 200-week MA, currently at 1942, and if the overall market is not in a bear trend, that line should hold up. This means that this index should not close on Friday any lower than 5 points from where it closed this past Friday. On an intraweek basis, the index has pivotal support at 1898, and that level should not get broken, or even neared. As far as the DOW, the pivotal intraweek support is down at 37122, which is 866 points from where it closed on Friday. The SPX has no levels close by that are pivotal support. The previous all-time high is at 4766 , which is 201 points lower. At this time and with the fact that all the important earnings reports are now out, it is doubtful that this index will be indicative (at this time) of anything. This index is likely to be a follower and not a leader of the market right now. To the upside and thinking about what the bulls could do to generate new buying interest (based on the charts), there are no levels close by that could be seen this week, which would trigger new buying interest. The only level that an eye could be kept on is in the NASDAQ at 17137. That was the low daily close in the index that held since January 19th, which got broken on Friday. A new sell signal was given with that break and if the index can close above that level 2-days in a row this week, some of the sell pressure would be ameliorated. It would not be a game-changer but it would take some of the edge from the bears. There are no possibly catalytical earnings reports scheduled for this week, and as far as economic reports, GDP is due out on Thursday AM. Even so, it is doubtful that the number (expected to be 2.7%) will be so way out of line as to generate any new buying or selling interest. This means that this week will be more about charts, more about speculation, and more about world affairs than about the economical fundamentals of the market.
OIL generated a second-in-a-row red weekly close and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 81.58 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears did not have the success that they needed/wanted, given that Oil fell short of breaking an indicative intraweek low at 81.50 (low was 81.58) or closing below an indicative weekly close support level at 82.79 (closed at 83.25). It cannot be said that the failure of the bears was due to bull buying interest based on the fundamentals or the charts, but due to the bombing by Israel of Iran, and the possible consequences of such action affecting Iran's ability to produce and sell its oil. This means that the action this past week cannot be depended on to indicative what it to happen to Oil this coming week (or the next couple of weeks). Having said that, it nothing new happens this weekend in that war, the probabilities do seem to slightly favor the bears as Oil has been starting to show signs that further upside will not happen unless there is a positive fundamental change. There are 4 chart levels in play this week (3 to the downside and 1 to the upside) to look at. To the downside a daily close below 82.73 will give the bears a bit more ammunition to take oil lower. A daily close below 80.63 will generate a new sell signal and be a new chart negative to Oil. The last level to look at is at 79.97, which if broken a failure signal against the bears will be added to the other signals and give the bears control. To the upside, a daily close above 83.47 would give the bulls some ammunition to take Oil slightly higher for the week. It is clear that one of these things is likely to happen on Monday and that will give some indication of what to expect the rest of the week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week. The market is presently not set up (at these prices) to offer any good risk/reward options to either side. In addition, the following week some of the important and often catalytical earnings reports come out as well as the start of the new month where the important economic reports will have an effect.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMZN dropped 6.2% in value this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 173.44 will be seen this week. This red weekly close has now created a double top scenario at 185.97/186.13 that would be confirmed if the stock generates another red weekly close and below 174.42 next Friday (closed this past Friday at 174.63). A confirmed double top would be a scenario that will generate a whole lot of profit taking and new selling interest. Having said all of that, the bears were not able to generate "any" sell signals of note this past week, meaning that the door is still slightly ajar for the bulls. On the daily closing chart, a close below 171.96 would generate a sell signal and on the weekly closing chart, a close below 174.42 would do the same. To the upside, and on a daily closing basis, a close above 180.00 would take some of the selling pressure off. BABA generated a new 7-month weekly closing low, having closed on Friday at 69.07 and the previous weekly closing low was at 69.42. This close was certainly a negative that will change the chart to favor the bears, "if" confirmed next Friday. On a small positive note, the same low at 69.42 (on the weekly closing chart) is found at 68.05 on the daily closing chart, and the stock closed at 68.72 on Wednesday and then closed at 68.88 on Thursday and at 69.07 on Friday, suggesting that low has been tested successfully (is the reason I did not liquidate the positions on Friday). This coming week is very important for the Chinese market as some of the big and important economic reports (GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales) are due out on Tuesday. They are expected to be lower than the previous month but those lower numbers are already factored in, meaning that if they come in as expected, it will not likely affect the market negatively. Having said that and back to the stock, it has to generate a green weekly close next Friday above 69.42 but since the numbers come out Tuesday morning, the daily closing chart is important. The 68.05 level is pivotal support and it would be nice if the stock generates a green daily close on Monday and does not break the 68.77 support. Having said that, a daily close above 71.46 any day this week, would be a positive sign. This is a week for decisions to be made on the stock. DD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then closing green and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 75.12, than below last week's low at 72.38. The positive reversal was not unexpected, given that the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 72.95, on Tuesday, which was then followed by 3 green daily closes the rest of the week. The stock did close near the low of the day on Friday, suggesting the line will likely be tested again at the beginning of the week, before the traders decide what to do (break the line or generate further recovery). Intraweek resistance is found at 75.46 and short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 75.46. The overall chart still favors the bears slightly. ENG negated all the minor gains that had been accomplished the past 8 weeks, having closed below all of the weekly closes seen during this time. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.56 will be seen this week. The next level of daily close support, which is short-term pivotal, is at 1.43. Daily close resistance is now found at 1.75. There has been no news on the company, meaning that the probabilities favor the stock trading between 1.43 and 1.75 (based on daily closes) for the next couple of weeks. GCI generated a new 6-month intraweek high and a new 11-week daily and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.63 will be seen this week. The stock finds itself at a highly indicative area of short-term resistance that has been built over the past 7 months, between 2.62 and 2.74 (2.62 and 2.66 on a daily closing basis and at 2.59 on a weekly closing basis), which if broken, would be a short-term "game changer". The stock closed at 2.60 on Friday, suggesting that the 2.59 level of resistance on the weekly closing chart has been broken. Then of course, a $.01 cent break is not dependable, meaning another green weekly close is needed and if above 2.74 it would be even better. Such a break of resistance would suggest that by the end of the month (the following week), the 3.03 area would be tested and if broken, that would be a longer term game changer. The company reports earnings on May 2nd, which is a week from Thursday, and that is going to be highly pivotal for the stock. At this time, everything seems to be favoring the bulls, especially considering the stock has accomplished this rally in-spite-of the weakness seen in the market, especially the weakness seen in the small cap stock index. As far as support, the 200-day MA is currently at 2.42, and a daily close below that line would weaken the chart. A daily close below 2.31 would be a short-term game changer in favor of the bears. JD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek low but then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.18 will be seen this week. The green weekly close does suggest that the previous week's close at 25.39 (closed on Friday at 25.51) was a successful retest of the pivotal weekly close support at 24.38. If another green weekly close occurs on Friday, last week's intraweek low at 24.66 will become the required/needed retest of the spike low seen on the first week of March at 21.18, and it will become the 2nd successful retest of the multi-year intraweek low seen in January at 20.82. To the upside, the bulls need to generate a daily close above 25.94, to stimulate new buying interest. If that occurs, a rally back up to above $28 would likely be seen. The 200-week MA is currently at 28.59 and a close above that would be a breakout of note. LXRX made a new 12-week intraweek low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.60 will be seen this week. There has been no negative news on the company, meaning that this drop is basically chart-oriented. The initial breakout level on the weekly closing chart is at 1.53 and it is now evident that level is going to be retested. If the retest is successful, a rally back up to at least the 2.50 (and up to 2.75) is likely to occur over the next few weeks, or until the next earnings report the second week of May. The probabilities do favor the stock holding above the 1.53 level (on a weekly closing basis) and moving back up. Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, it is possible for the stock to get down to as much as the 1.31 level. On a short-term intraweek basis, the 1.93 level is pivotal. SNDL generated a 2nd red week in a row and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of further downside below last week's low at 1.75 than above last week's high at 2.06 will be seen this week. It seems probable that the stock is in the process of testing the weekly close breakout level at 1.64 before attempting to continue the rally. On a daily closing basis, that level is at 1.67. Short-term daily close resistance is at 2.19. Probabilities favor the stock getting down to 1.67 and then turning around. VWDRY generated a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing low, and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.28 will be seen this week. There has been no news on the company for the past 5 weeks, meaning that this breakdown has been all about the charts. There is no intraweek support below until the 8.08-8.13 level is reached. Having closed at 8.34 on Friday, it is now highly likely that level will be seen this week (or at the latest next week). The company reports earnings on May 8th and until then, it is likely the bears will remain with the edge. To the upside, short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is at 8.79. The 200-day MA is currently at 8.54. The bulls need to break both of those to give the bulls back the edge. ZLAB generated the 7th week in a row of red closes and the 4th week of new all-time low weekly closes. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 14.67 than going below last week's low at 13.48. At this time, the bears have total control of the stock. The earnings reports is not due out until May 8th, meaning that until then, the bears will remain with the edge/control. Having said that, the breakdown point on the weekly closing chart is 15.70 and it is highly likely that level will be tested either this week or next. The volume has dropped to the lowest point it has been in since this recent downtrend began in December and that means that selling interest has waned. To the upside, last week's high is minor resistance, which if broken would open the door for an intraweek rally to the 16.13 level. A break above that level will cause the stock to rally to 16.73 and that is an intraweek level that if broken, would generate a short-covering rally of note. There is no established support below.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.31. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65. 3) VWDRY - Purchased at 8.74. Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.33. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 2.60. 6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 69.07. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.87. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 25.51. 10) AMZN - Shorted at 187.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 174.63. 11) SIMO - Purchased at 73.12. Liquidated at 71.94. Loss on the trade of $118 per 100 shares. 12) DD - Shorted at 76.80. Stop loss at 78.35. Stock closed on Friday at 73.89.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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