Issue #855
March 31, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls continue to control the market but Tech Stocks starting to show some weakness.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 39807 One more week full of dichotomies, given that the SPX made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high, the DOW made new all-time high weekly close but not all-time intraweek high, the NASDAQ did not follow the rest of the indexes, and generated an inside week and a red weekly close, and the RUT beat them all (percentage-wise), having moved up in value 2.5%, whereas the other two green-close indexes went up less than 1%. These dichotomies do suggest that the bulls are slowly but surely running out of ammunition, though how much ammunition is left is still not clear. Seasonally speaking, the probabilities strongly favor continuation of the uptrend. March did as expected, as it is considered to be one of the top 7 months of the year for a rally. April though, has been one of the top 3 seasonal up-months of the year, with 16 out of the last 20 months going up. Having said that, March has gone up an average of .92% but this March, the indexes went up from a low of 1.2% in the NASDAQ to 4.6% in the SPX. As such, it is expected that April will also generate a green close but it is totally unclear whether it will be a better month than March or not. The only index that can give us any sort of a projection figure is the RUT. The index went up 4% in March and it does have a clear upside target of an April close at 2192. Which is 3.5% higher than Friday's monthly close. This month is going to be all about economic and earnings reports. This week, the ISM Index and JOBS reports come out (Monday and Friday), the following week, the CPI report comes out on Wednesday and the earnings season kicks off that Friday with JPM and WFC reporting. Thereafter and throughout the rest of the month, it will all be about earnings reports. There is no Fed meeting in April. As such, it is difficult to anticipate how this month will turn out. Nonetheless, there is no reason at this time that there will be any surprises to the downside. The SPX index has been the main index to watch. It is the controlling-of-the-trend index and as such, it is the index that is likely to give the most dependable signals. The index does have a 5480 upside objective, which is determined by it being 15% above the previous all-time high weekly close (at 476 6). That is a general evaluation that can easily be missed on either side. Nonetheless, more often than not, new all-time highs see an appreciation of around 15% above the previous high. As far as to the downside is concerned, here are the levels to watch. In the DOW, the 39228 level, on a daily closing basis, will generate a sell signal and a daily close below 39069 will generate a failure signal against the bulls. In the SPX, the 5203 level will generate the sell signal and the 5175 level, the failure signal. In the NASDAQ, the 18210 level will generate both a sell signal, as well as a failure signal. In the RUT, the 2066/2070 level is the important area. It is certainly evident that the NASDAQ is the one closest to any kind of a negative signal, but then again, the index is all about the big Tech stocks and as such, it will not determine what the overall market it going to do. This means that even if the NAZ fails, it will not necessarily mean the market is heading lower. By the same token, the big 5 tech stocks do report earnings before the end of the month and it is unlikely that there will be any dependable or strong selling there until those reports come out. The first of the 5 is NFLX and it reports earnings on the 18th. It is also evident that in 2 of the last 3 weeks, the RUT has outperformed the other indexes. This does suggest that somewhere down the line (likely this year and probably in less than 6 months), that a top to this uptrend will be found. Nonetheless, this dichotomy between small cap stocks and the rest of the market, can go on for several months without the overall market losing much steam. Bottom line is that the indexes should continue to move higher this month unless there is some negative fundamental surprise. By the same token and seeing what has happened the past few weeks, the action, on a daily basis, is not going to be all that predictable.
OIL generated an inside week, meaning that the negative reversal week seen the previous week did not see any downside follow through nor was the negativity confirmed. In fact, Oil made a new 5-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 83.21 will be seen this week. Oil closed at a very short-term pivotal weekly close resistance level between 82.79 and 83.19, which represents a previous weekly closing low of consequence that held up for 4 weeks and a previous weekly closing high of consequence that held up for 3 weeks. Oil closed at 83.17 and that means that any green weekly close next Friday will open the door for rally to "at least" 85.05 or to 88.08 (both based on weekly closes), which is where resistance levels are in place. With Gold and the overall market moving up, the probabilities strongly favor the bulls continuing higher. On a daily closing basis, the 83.47 level is pivotal resistance and the 80.63 level is pivotal support. Which ever gets broken first will get the edge, and the "edge" will determine what happens this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the action seen last week and bulls being in control, sales cannot be considered. By the same token, the big stocks are overbought and offer high risk if purchased. As such, purchases are the only thing that can be considered this week but only those stocks that are not presently overbought and that do have clear support levels close by. There are two stocks that I was able to find (and mention) last week but one of them (AEP) is no longer viable as the desired entry point given was not reached last week and is no longer likely to be reached. It is not worth chasing the stock either. The other mention (MTA) still has a chance to get to the desired entry point, and therefore remains a potential purchase.
PURCHASES
MTA Friday Closing Price - 3.11
MTA was brought to my attention a few weeks ago, regarding the fundamental outlook of the stock for the year. MTA and NOVA merged 2 months ago and with MTA being a metals royalty company that keys on Gold and Silver, and Gold making hew highs for the past two week (and looking to continue higher) and NOVA being a company that makes electric buses, it means that buying the stock gets you into two different industries that both have much upside potential.
MTA has been in a downtrend from the intraweek high at 13.51 (seen in December 2020) to the recent 4-year low at 2.32 (seen 5 weeks ago) that seems to be in the process of building a bottom. The 2.04 to 2.16 level (on a daily closing basis) is a strongly established support that held up for over a year back in 2017-2018 and the recent daily closing low was 2.39, when the news of the merger hit. In reading one fundamental evaluation of the stock after the merger, it expects the stock to climb up to the $6-$8 area by the end of the year, and it is interesting to note that the 200-week MA is currently at 6.26.
MTA has now rallied 24.2% from the recent low (based on daily closes) and did generate a failure signal against the bears on the weekly chart 3 weeks ago. Nonetheless, the stock generated a red week this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.88 will be seen this week. On an intraweek and daily closing basis, support is now found at 2.60 but on a weekly closing basis, support is found at 2.70. Last week's low is a short-term pivot point, which if broken would suggest that at least 2.75 will be seen, with possibilities that a drop down to the 2.60-2.70 level will occur. The stock has already generated 1 successful retest of the low on the daily closing chart but none yet on the weekly closing chart. As such, it is likely that is what is now occurring.
It is of note that the bulls have already generated a daily close above 3.04 (closed at 3.15 2 weeks ago) and that means that the bottom has been set. As such, the probability rating for this stock has increased . The 200-day MA (currently at 3.39) is now the target to be reached within the next 3-6 weeks. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 6.24 and that is the longer term (6-9 months) target.
Purchases of MTA below 2.76 and using a daily close stop loss at 2.51 and having a $6 objective will offer a 13-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 3/1 Loss of Loss of $3,918 using 100 shares per mention Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for March, per 100 shares and after commissions $0 Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
CALM (short) $316
AMZN (short) $296 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
RBLX (short) $188 Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $898 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 4/1
NONE
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
SIMO (long) $1230 Total $1,919 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 4/1
BABA (long) $18
TOL (short) $788 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
LXRX (long) $18 Total $4,356 Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Loss of $3,335
Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 3/31Loss of $7,256 per 100 shares.
BABA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek low but then closing green. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.56 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock remains in a trading range scenario between 71.46 and 75.20 and until one of those levels gets broken (on a daily closing basis), nothing will be accomplished in either direction. It is clear that this stock is waiting to see what happens to the Chinese index and in that case, the probabilities slightly favor the upside. Nonetheless, the Chinese index closed on Friday at 16541 and the two levels of importance are (on an intraweek basis), at 15972 and at 17214. The chart does not suggest that either will be broken during the next 2-4 weeks, suggesting the stock might remain in this trading range for that period of time. ENG remained "dead in the water", having generated an inside week, a close in the exact middle of the week's trading range, and closing in the same area as the weekly closes have been the previous 2 weeks (closed on Friday at 1.72, the previous week at 1.71, and the week before that, at 1.72). It is evident that the stock requires some form of catalyst for movement but at this time, I do not see one on the horizon. As has been the case during the past month, a daily close above 2.14 or below 1.40 would be pivotal. At this time though, a daily close above 1.84 or below 1.62 would give a short-term edge to the side that breaks it. No clear outlook for this week. GCI has moved up 17.7% over the past 2 weeks and did close on the high of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.44 will be seen. The stock did generate a new buy signal on the daily closing chart, having closed on Friday at 2.44, which is above the previous daily closing high for the past 9 weeks at 2.29. In addition, it closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 2.39, which is a line it has been trading below since February 1st and has traded below for 4 of the past 5 months. Simply stated, the bulls did generate a positive signal this past week. Having said that, the bulls still have to do more to generate a breakout of note and that means, a daily close above 2.66. Daily close support should now be found at 2.35 and short-term pivotal at 2.20. It is important to note that on the monthly chart, the stock has been in a base building process for the past 42 months and is now showing 4 successful retests of the monthly closing low made in October 2020 at 1.13. On that same monthly chart, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 2.47 and with the stock closing out the month at 2.44 and closing on the high of the month, it is likely that a small breakout will occur by the end of April. Above that 2.47 level, the pivotal level of resistance (on a monthly closing basis) is at 3.03. The reason why I am saying this is because if that level is broken, there is basically open air to the 6.00 level. This means that this stock could almost triple in value this year. The same pivotal level is at 3.52, on a daily closing basis. GILD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then turning around and closing green near the high of the week, suggesting follow through to the upside above last week's high at 73.87 will be seen this week. This past week did have importance inasmuch as the positive reversal did make the previous week's close at 72.61 in the needed/required retest of the 5-month low weekly close at 71.58. Confirmation of the success of the retest still needs to happen, with a weekly close above 75.12. In looking at the daily closing chart, there are 2 levels of short-term importance to watch. Those levels are 72.41 and 73.98. A break of either of those two levels will generate further movement in that direction. The probabilities do favor the bulls but there are still questions that need to be answered. JD generated an uneventful inside week (for the second week in a row) but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.10 will be seen this week. The action seen the past 2 weeks suggests that a bullish flag formation has been built with the flagpole being the 2-week rally from 21.18 to 28.55 and now the two week flag being with the low of the flag being 26.05. A confirmed break above 29.18 would offer a 33.42 objective. Confirmation though, is also dependent on the stock getting above the 5-month high at 29.19, as well as above the 200-day MA, currently at 29.35. In looking at the chart though, it does not seem that this is something that can happen this coming week. A bit more downside, slightly below 26.05 could still be seen and the resistance between 29.16 and 29.19 is decent. Any drop below 24.01 would now be seen as a negative. LXRX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week intraweek low and then reversing to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.47 will be seen this week. The action seen does take some of the recent pressure off but the bulls still have more to do before it can be said that they have accomplished something of note. To do that, the bulls have to generate a daily close above 2.81. For the time being, it does seem that perhaps the low of this correction has been made (though that is still an open question). The chart suggests that the stock will now get into a trading range for the next 2-4 weeks between 2.69 and 2.25 (based on daily closes). Further downside is still possible without doing any damage of consequence to the long term positive outlook. Nonetheless, any daily close below 2.12 would further slow down the upside possibilities. SIMO generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a red close. The red close was only by $.77 cents (about 1%) and therefore not of great meaning. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 77.77 will be seen this week. One of the downside objectives for the week was the closure of an unsupported upside gap at 76.25. Closure of that gap occurred on Wednesday. Thursday was a positive reversal day and Friday was confirmation of that reversal, suggesting that no further downside will be seen and also making Thursday's low at 74.66 into a short-term pivotal intraweek support level. The objective of the mention was the $81-$83 level, and it is possible that level could be seen this week or next. Consideration should be given to taking profits in that area and buying back on a correction. SNDL generated another spike up green week and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a short-term negative note, the stock did get up to an established and pivotal daily close resistance at 2.19 (closed at 2.18 on Thursday) and backed off with a red daily close on Friday at 2.01. The 2.15 level on the weekly closing chart is strongly pivotal and the bulls failed to break it, having closed at 2.01 on Friday. This does suggest that a bit of new area of support building will occur over the next week or two. There is daily close support at 1.98 and a bit stronger between 1.74 and 1.78. Overall, the action is suggesting that the stock is about to generate a breakout of note, with a potential $3 objective to be reached within the next 3 months. Nonetheless, this week is likely to be mostly about building new support here around the $1.80-$2.00 area. Any daily close above 2.19 or below 1.74 would generate some follow through of consequence. TOL continued its impressible climb that has made the stock go up 80% in value over the past 5 months. The stock closed on the high of the month and further upside above 130.28 is expected to be seen this month (and this week). The stock has now gone up 22% above the previous high weekly close, meaning that it can still go higher. This is now especially true given that a second breakaway/runaway gap formation is now in place. This formation gives a $142 objective. VWDRY bulls failed to generate any follow through to the upside last week (after the close on the high of the week the previous week) and closed red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.16 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is now found at 9.04 and at 8.86. If the latter is broken, it is likely to generate new selling interest. The monthly chart does suggest that a drop down to 8.77 can occur without damage to the long-term occurring. Nonetheless, the same chart shows that a break below 8.50 would be a big short-term negative. Intraweek resistance is now found at 9.65 and short-term pivotal at 9.69. There has been no news recently and given the breakout of the small-cap index, any drop from here is likely to find buying support. ZLAB made a new 6-year low at 15.69 and once again closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below that low will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the selling interest has begun to subside as the stock generated a very small $.96 cent trading range for the week (normally it is $3 or more). The all-time low weekly close is 15.70 and having closed at 16.02, that support was not broken. The all-time low monthly close was 16.36 and that was broken but not by a big amount, meaning that the break is not decisive yet. Nonetheless, it is evident that no more than perhaps 1-week more of weakness can be seen (a close next week at 15.70), which would then be followed by a recovery phase. In looking at the monthly chart, it is evident that a green close is required for April and there is open air above until 22.28 is reached. Further monthly close resistance is found at 23.42, which if broken would signal further recovery. There has been no negative news on the company and as such there is no reason for further downside below the levels mentioned above, to occur.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.02. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.72. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.23. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.40. 5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 2.44. 6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 72.36. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.01. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 27.39. 10) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss now at 71.27. Stock closed on Friday at 73.35. 11) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 76.94. 12) TOL - Shorted at 121.49. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 129.37.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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