Issue #851
March 3, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls in full control. Runaway Freight Train Scenario!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 39087 The SPX and the NASDAQ made new intraweek and weekly closing highs and the RUT made a new 23-month intraweek and weekly closing high as well. The only index that fell short of making either one of those was the DOW, which generated an inside week and a red weekly closing. Nonetheless, all indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW above 39245, SPX above 5140, NAZ above 18133, and RUT above 2077) will be seen this week. The action seen was a surprise as every single economic report except one was a negative to the market. Home Sales dropped, Durable Goods orders dropped, GDP growth dropped, Consumer Confidence dropped and Initial Claims rose. The "only" report that was better than expected was the PCE report (inflation) that came in at .3% when it was expected to come in at 4%, but even that number cannot be considered all that great as the previous month's number was .1%. Nonetheless, the traders shrugged all of that away and continue to buy the elite stocks at a torrid pace. The SPX and NASDAQ have now seen 7 green weekly closes out of the last 8 weeks and an appreciation in value of 9% and 11% respectively (during these weeks) and a appreciation in value of 20% and 23% (respectively) since the rally began in late October. There are no economic reports of any consequence this week, until the Jobs report on Friday. The Jobs report is expected to come in at 210K non-farm payrolls. Last month's number was 353k and the month before that it was 333k. If it does come in as expected, it should be seen as a bit of a negative, but then again, in the past year there have been 5 reports under 200k (with the lowest being 150k) and none of those reports caused a selloff to occur. In fact, the 150k came in on October and that was the month this rally started. As such and the way the market has been acting as a runaway freight train, and the fact that the report is already "expected" to be substantially lower than last month, does suggest that it will not be a negative catalyst, if it comes in as expected. Simply stated, the rally should continue. Having said all of that, what needs to be kept eyes on this week, is anything that is unexpectedly negative. For that, one has to turn to the charts and here is what I see. Last week's lows (made on Wednesday) have to be considered negatively pivotal, given that the bulls are presently in full control and any loss of control at this time would be indicative. As such, in the DOW a drop below 38741, in the SPX a drop below 5058, in the NASDAQ a drop below 17874, and in the RUT a drop below 2038, will be considered trigger point negatives. At this point though, there is no reason to think that anything unexpected will happen. The freight train is moving forward at a fast pace and stepping up in front of it, is likely to end up getting run over.
OIL made a new 4-month intraweek, daily and weekly closing high this week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.84 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found, starting at 80.94, then at 82.66, at 83.53, and lastly at 84.69. On a daily closing basis though, it is open air to 82.72. It does seem that level is going to be the objective and likely to be reached. Thereafter, it will depend on the fundamental picture. Having said that though, the bulls need to continue higher immediately as now support (on a daily closing basis) is found at 79.83 and short-term pivotal at 79.19 (a failure signal would be given if it closes below that). As such, there is no room to the downside for any red daily closes below Friday's daily close at 79.97.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have one new mention that is in the Chinese market. The Chinese market is recovering and it not overextended to the upside (as the U.S. market is), meaning there are still some good purchases in key elite stocks. This mention is one of those elite stocks.
BABA Friday Closing Price - 74.62
BABA has been on a midterm downtrend for the past 13 months but did give a signal 4 weeks ago that perhaps the downtrend has ended. It is important to note that the stock made a new 7-year low at 58.01 in October 2022, which was then followed with a successful retest of that low in January 2023 with the low at 66.63 2 months ago, meaning that the stock has been in the process of building a bottom to the 42-month downtrend that started in September 2020 from an all-time high at 319.62. If in effect a bottom has been built (which does seem probable as the Chinese market seems to be on the road to recovery), it will generate at the very least a short-covering rally that would confirm that a bottom has been found.
BABA started the most recent downtrend in July of last year from a high of 102.50 and proceeded to generate lower highs and lower lows for 7 months in a row, until February when that changed. In simple words, there is mostly open air above to the $100 level. Having said that, there is some "old" resistance at 86.42 and then again at 95.02. The former should be the first objective, to be reached within the next 2 months.
To the downside, BABA is showing clear and recent support at 70.00 and then at the recent low as 66.63. On the daily chart, the stock is showing an inverted Head and Shoulders formation with the left shoulder being at 70.12, the head being at 66.63 and the right shoulder being in the process of being determined. Evidently under such a formation, the stock could drop all the way down to the 70.12 level but that is not a necessity in such a formation. Enough has already been done so the right shoulder might have been formed.
Having said that, BABA shows quite a few intraweek support level starting at 73.33 and on down to 72.02, before the 70.12 low. Probabilities do favor one of those support levels being reached this week. The stock generated a negative reversal week last week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.80 will be seen this week. This does suggest the stock should reach its present downside target this week and begin a turn around and the beginning of a recovery period of some note.
Purchases of BABA below 73.34 and using a mental stop loss at 69.65 and having a minimum upside objective of 86.42 will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, this is a trade that could take the stock up to the $100 level, which would mean at least an 8-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2023, as of 2/1 Loss of Loss of $4,597 using 100 shares per mention Closed out profitable trades for February per 100 shares per mention
TOL (short) $206
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. INTC (long) $362 Total Profit for February, per 100 shares and after commissions $568 Closed out losing trades for February per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
TOL (short) $845
TOL (short) $89 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for February, per 100 shares, including commissions $934 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/1
Z (short) $388
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
SIMO (long) $781 Total $1225 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 2/1
GILD (long) $50
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
GCI (long) $34 Total $518 Status of trades for month of February per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Profit of $679
Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 2/29Loss of $3,918 per 100 shares.
ENG spiked up 38% in value (from the previous week's close to this past week's high) and yet there was no news to support the rally. With the stock having traded below this level for the past 10 weeks, this was an unexpected surprise that suggests that there is "something cooking" that is not yet public. The company does have a history of spike up rallies of consequence as it has had 6 of them over the past 14 years. Having said that, on a weekly closing basis the bulls have not yet accomplished anything tangible. The stock did close on Friday at 2.08 and the 2.06 level does represent a previous low weekly close that when broken did generate the move down to 1.00. Nonetheless, a close above that level by only $.02 cents is not yet convincing. In addition, that previous low only held up for 1 week, meaning it is not all that indicative. The weekly close that needs to be broken in order for the bulls to gain a true edge is 2.48, which is a level of support that held up for 6 months. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 2.46, meaning that is an objective of this move up but it needs to be broken in order to generate a true breakout from this 18-month downtrend. On a daily closing basis, some support is now found at 2.00 and pivotal at 1.44. GCI generated a non-eventful inside week but did close green, meaning that the bears were unable to push the stock lower in spite of the fact that it had closed near the low of the week the previous week. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 2.04 or above last week's high at 2.20. The stock does show daily close support at 1.83 and again at 2.00-2.03, which was the breakout point that occurred 13 weeks ago. This has been a bottom building formation that has been in process for the past 16 months and if successful, it will give the bulls new ammunition to attempt to break the existing weekly close resistance at 2.59 and rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 3.26. A daily close below 1.83 will unravel the bottom building formation. GILD reported earnings and they were evidently not better than expected, given that the stock generated an uneventful inside week but closed red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.92 will be seen this week. With the index market heading higher, the stock bucked the trend and went lower. By the same token, the bears have been in control of the stock for the past 7 weeks, since one of their lung cancer medicine studies gave disappointing results, meaning that the earnings report was not all the negative as the downtrend did not make new lows. The 200-week MA is currently at 71.01 and that line has held up for the past 3 weeks (low has been 71.57). Based on that fact and the fact the market is looking to go higher, it is unlikely that line will break, at least not on a weekly closing basis. Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at the previous week's high at 74.24 (73.55 on a daily closing basis), which if broken, would open the door for a minimum rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 77.62. On a slightly positive note, the stock did generate a green daily close on Friday, which could mean that the recent low daily close at 71.58 has now received the needed/requested successful retest of it. JD went below the previous week's low and generated a red weekly close and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.52 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that the stock made a new 4-year low at 20.82 6-weeks ago and that low has not yet received the required/needed retest of it before new buying can be stimulated. Having gone below the previous week's low (first time that has happened in the past 5 weeks), this drop has now taken on the possibility of being that retest. In looking at the daily chart, there is intraweek support at 22.06, at 21.79 and at 21.53 that should not be broken if the bulls want to start a recovery rally. In fact, the 22.06 level should not even be seen. To the upside, indicative and short-term intraweek resistance is now found at 24.65. The company does report earnings on Wednesday morning and is likely to be a catalyst for either side. LXRX generated an uneventful inside week, considering that the company reported earnings the previous week and fell and closed near the low of the week and further downside was expected to be seen this past week, but did not happen. Nonetheless, the stock did close red and near the low of the week, once again suggesting that further downside below this past week's low at 2.35 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is showing 3 intraweek support levels below, starting at 2.13, at 1.87 and at 1.71. The first one is likely to be seen but what happens there will be of short-term note. A break of the latter one would erase all the gains made over the past 2 months. The stock did close once again below the 200-week MA, currently at 2.90 and the probabilities do favor the stock trading up to the line (but not likely above the line) in the next few weeks. Having said that, and in spite of the negative earnings report, the stock has a fundamental positive outlook that some rating companies have stated that the stock could reach as high as $8 by the end of the year. As such, any weakness seen this week should be minor in nature and very short-term. Any daily close above 2.71 would take some of the edge off of the bears and a daily close above 3.03 would give the edge back to the bulls. Any daily close below 2.17 would likely mean that 1.80 will be seen. RBLX generated another red weekly close (3rd in a row) but this time, it closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.94 will be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 42.20 that if broken, would suggest the $44 level would be seen. With the index market likely heading higher and the bears unable to generate a break of support (or even reach the downside target), it might be time to consider taking profits on the trade. In looking at the intraday chart, it is possible that a drop down to as low as 40.40 will be seen this week. Further downside below that level would be seen as a probable negative in favor of the bears. SIMO generated a new 34-week intraweek and weekly closing high and a new 19-month high weekly close, and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the breakout on the weekly closing chart was only by $.07 cents, meaning that the bulls are committed to another green weekly close next Friday or be ready for a correction to this 30% rally over the past 5 months. The stock shows minor intraweek resistance at 73.73 and then no resistance above until the 78.20 daily close resistance level is reached. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 68.76. At this time, there seems to be nothing to stop the bulls from moving higher. VWDRY spiked up 10.5% in value this past week on possible good news regarding an investor event, as well as potentially (and unexpected) good news from Europe of one of their wind turbines there possibly offering over a $1 billion potential profit. The stock recuperated most of the losses seen the previous 3 weeks and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.55 being seen this week. There is some intraweek resistance at 9.65 but then nothing until the 200-week MA, currently at 9.97. What made this past week quite important is that now the stock has generated a successful retest of 6.23 level low that was seen in October, which was a successful retest of 2-year low at 5.69 that was made in October 2022. This was a required/needed retest as the stock had moved up 60% in value (from 6.23 to 10.62) from October to December without any retest of the low occurring. As such, the stock now has a chance of resuming the uptrend, which has the $12 level as the first upside objective. There are 3 resistance obstacles ahead that need to be broken in order to accomplish that goal. The first one is at 9.65/9.67, the second one is at 10.16 and the third and last one is at 10.62. Intraweek support will now be found at 9.49, at 9.01 and pivotal at 8.50. Everything says "it is a go" for the bulls. Z generated a spike up week, having appreciated 7% in value this past week. With the stock indexes moving higher, there is now a good chance that the stock will renew the uptrend that occurred from October to December when the stock moved up from $37 to $59 in value. The monthly chart seems to suggest that the stock will move higher toward the $65 level, given that the overall market is moving higher and the bears were unable to generate a correction in which the $37 low seen in November was tested. This means that the bulls have remained generally in control during this 10-week pause in the uptrend. With the downside targets not reached (or even gotten close to), this short position should be covered this week and profits (as small as they are) taken. The chart does show a possibility of the stock getting down as low as 55.24 this week. If that happens, I will cover the shorts there. Otherwise. I will play it by ear as to when to cover. One thing to bear in mind is that there is no resistance above until 59.40 is reached. ZLAB made a new 4-week intraweek high and closed green but did close near the low of the week. suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.00 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the green weekly close does mean that on a weekly closing basis, the chart now shows a successful retest of the recent 18.68 weekly closing low, having closed the previous week at 19.94 and this Friday at 21.10. Having said that though, on an intraweek basis, the 17.69 low has not yet had a retest of it, meaning that if the stock goes below this past week's low at 20.00, such a retest could occur. On the other side of the coin, the bulls have not yet been able to generate any buy signals, meaning that onus is on them. The bulls did generate a daily close at 22.49 on Wednesday but were not able to close above the 22.72 level that is the previous low daily close for the previous 2 years. This means that the bears still have the edge, if not outright control. It is likely that scenario will be either overturned or confirmed this coming week. A daily close above 22.72 will do "it" for the bulls, while a daily close below 19.24 will likely do "it" for the bears.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.94. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.42. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.oo. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.54. 5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.07. 6) TOL - Liquidated at 107.74. Loss on the trade of $845 per 100 shares. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.37. 9) Z - Averaged short at 58.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 54.80. 10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 23.90. 11) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss now at 71.27. Stock closed on Friday at 73.55. 12) RBLX - Averages short at 43.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 47.35. Stock closed on Friday at 41.45. 13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 69.09.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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