Issue #850
February 25, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls in control but confidence in higher prices is extremely fragile, due to the fact that strenght is only seen in a few elite stocks!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 39139 The 3 big indexes all made new all-time intraweek highs but only the DOW and the SPX made new weekly closing highs. The NASDAQ fell short of making a new weekly closing high by 27 points. On the other side of the coin, it was an even-across-the-board rally as all 3 indexes went up by the same percentage of 1.7%. Nonetheless, it is of note that this past week, and opposite to the previous week. the RUT did underperform the other indexes as it generated a red weekly close and did not even get close to going above the previous week's high. What this all "likely" means is that this rally remains unconvincing, especially when it was NVDA earnings that caused the stock to go up 15% in value that drove the market up and yet the stock is part of the NASDAQ. As such, the question has to be "why did the NAZ not outperform the other indexes this past week? and why didn't the RUT rally (has an inside week). Nonetheless and across the board, all indexes closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's highs are expected to be seen this week (DOW above 39282, SPX above 5111, NAZ above 18091, and RUT above 2026). There are no reports scheduled for this week that are likely to be catalytic in nature but there are a few reports that could help clear-up the economic situation to a degree. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence number comes out and it is expected to be the same as last month (114.8). If it comes in higher or lower it will give a picture of how the traders are seeing what is likely to happen next month. On Thursday, PCE inflation number comes out and it is expected to be .4%. Last month it was .2% and this is the number that the Fed looks at to determine inflation expectations. A lower number will give the market a slight boost and a higher number the opposite. On Friday, the ISM Manufacturing number comes out and it is expected to come out slightly better than last months number at 49.4% (expected to be 49.5%). Only a much lower (below 48%) or much higher number (above 50%) will have any effect. It is doubtful that will happen. This means that there is not likely to be any economic reports this week that could tilt the market one way or the other. As such and because this market is so unclear and driven up by just a few stocks, the traders will be looking at the action (rather than the reports). Evidently and at this point, the momentum is clearly to the upside, meaning that any indicative negative reversal or drop to the downside will have meaning. In addition, keeping an eye on stocks like NVDA, AMZN, JPM, GS, MSFT, NFLX, TOL, and others that have recently (last 1-3 weeks) made new all-time highs, is what the traders will be doing. These are the stocks driving the indexes up and if they begin to fail, the indexes should fail as well. Of all of those, the two to watch closely at NVDA a JPM, given that they both made impressive new all-time highs last week. As far as the indexes themselves are concerned, the NASDAQ and the RUT are the indexes to watch this week. The bulls in the NAZ were not able to generate a new all-time weekly closing high (above 17962 - closed on Friday at 17937) and on the daily chart, the index did make a new all-time high (above the same as the weekly closing high - closed at 18004) but that high was negated on Friday. This means that starting on Monday, all eyes will be on the index and the 17962 level. In the RUT, the index made a new 23-month weekly closing high 9 weeks ago (at 2033) and immediately that new high was negated. Because of the strength seen in the overall market over the past 5 weeks, the bulls got new ammunition and rallied back up again but closed at 2032 two weeks ago and last week generated a red weekly close, meaning that no new breakout occurred. Nonetheless, on Friday the index closed at 2016 and that was the same 23-month weekly closing high that got broken in December with the 2033 close. This means that even though no breakout occurred, the bears were unable to generate a failure signal. This means that 2016 and 2033 are both pivotal this coming Friday. On a daily closing basis, the same scenario applies with 2066/2061 and 2016/2021. The scenario this week will be all about the charts, and based on the fact that this rally has been mostly about a few elite stocks, those stocks (mentioned above) need to be watched closely. This market is fragile underneath the strength shown and it will not take much to turn it around on a dime. Having said that, it is impossible at this time to give any probability evaluation for either side. The bulls are in control now, meaning that the onus is on them to keep the runaway freight train moving forward.
OIL, like with so many other things in the market, lack of clarity and a decent dose of confusion reigns. Oil made a new 16-week intraweek high but then turned around to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $76.32 will be seen this week. Oil generated an intraweek high at 79.80 but the reality is that there was open air above to 80.94 and the bulls were unable to generate enough buying to reach that minor resistance level. The reason given for the drop was that the recent economic news dents the hopes of a Fed rate cut anytime soon. Nonetheless, that is not what has been driving the oil market up, meaning that this was likely just an excuse given for the weakness. Having said that, this drop means that if it goes below last week's low and breaks the 75.78 level of support, a drop all the way down to 72.16 is likely to be seen. On the other side of the coin, if that level of support does not get broken and the bulls can get oil above last week's high, this negative action will be erased and once again a rally all the way up to the $81-$82 level would likely be seen. At this time, the bears have a slight edge.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again, I have no new mentions for this week. This market is presently in a very fragile state but it is also in a huge dichotomy where just a few elite stocks are driving the market up. The bulls have control, but then again it is not the overall market that is moving up (just a few stocks moving up), meaning that buying other stocks does not have a high probability of success and buying those elite stock has a high risk ratio attached to them. On the other side of the coin, most stocks are oversold (not candidates for shorting) and shorting those elite stocks, have been a losing position recently.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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ENG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.40 will be seen. The company was expected to report earnings this week but that earnings date has now been moved to March 29th. As such, and with the inability of the bulls to close above the 200-week MA (currently at 1.59), having gone up to 1.79 but then closing on Friday at 1.43, it does suggest that this week will be all about building a bottom formation on the chart so that some new buying interest can be accomplished. The recent low at 1.01 has not yet generated a successful retest on the weekly closing chart and if the stock does get below last week's low this week, such a retest could now happen. There is support on the daily chart at 1.20 that could be seen this week. Nonetheless, if the stock goes below last week's low this week and then rallies the following week, a bottom to the downtrend will likely have been built. GCI generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did make the low of the week on Thursday and did bounce up on Friday, generating a successful retest of the recent low daily close at 1.83, as well as of the most recent daily close "breakout" at 2.03. The 2.00 level is a well established weekly close support level that should not be broken. If the stock generates a green weekly close on Friday, one more step in the process of building a bottom will have occurred. This bottom building formation has been in process for the past 16 months and if successful this week in adding to it, it will give the bulls new ammunition to attempt to break the existing weekly close resistance at 2.59 and rally up to the 200-week MA, currently at 3.26. A daily close below 1.83 will unravel the bottom building formation. GILD bears were not able to push the stock further to the downside (after the previous week's close on the low of the week) and generated a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.24 will be seen this week. What was of note is that the green weekly close did generate a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 71.05, having closed at 71.58 the previous week and closing on Friday at 73.55. In addition, the bulls were able to generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday at 73.55 and the previous low daily close support being at 73.27. Having said that, the bulls still need to generate a failure signal against the bears on the weekly closing chart, and to do that, a close above 74.42 needs to happen this Friday. If all of that does happen, there is open air above to the $77-$80 level. Any daily close below 72.61 would now be seen as a negative, though a small one. JD generated an uneventful inside and small-trading-range week where nothing was decided. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is short-term pivotal resistance at 24.65, which if broken would offer open air above to 27.50. A drop below last week's low at 23.05 would likely mean a drop down to the next (and somewhat pivotal) support at 22.06. At this time, the bears remain with the edge but if on Thursday, the bulls can generate a green monthly close above 22.55, the bears will lose their edge, at least for the short-term. LXRX reported earning this past week and they were lower than expected and the stock lost 20.2% in value. The stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.29 will be seen this week. The stock is showing 3 intraweek support levels below, starting at 2.13, at 1.87 and at 1.71. The first one is highly likely to be seen but what happens there will be of short-term note. A break of the latter one would erase all the gains made over the past 2 months. The stock did close below the 200-week MA, currently at 2.90 and the probabilities do favor the stock trading up to the line (but not likely above the line) for the next few weeks. Having said that and in spite of the less-than-expected earnings report, the stock has a fundamental positive outlook that some rating companies have stated that the stock could reach as high as $8 by the end of the year. As such, any weakness seen this week should be minor in nature and very short-term. Any daily close above 2.71 would take some of the edge off of the bears and a daily close above 3.03 would give the edge back to the bulls. Any daily close below 2.17 would likely mean that 1.80 will be seen. RBLX generated another red weekly close, meaning that the bears have the edge in spite of the bulls having the edge in the index market. With better than expecting earnings reported 3 weeks ago and now a confirmed failure to break above the 23-month highs, it seems fairly certain that without some outside help, the bulls are not going to be able to stimulate new buying interest. Having said that, the bears have not been able to gain control or even the edge at this time. Simply stated and for now, the stock remains in a sideway trading range between 37.76 and 47.20. In looking at the daily intraweek chart, the 43.06 level is short-term resistance, which if broken would give the bulls a bit of new ammunition. On the opposite side, a break below last week's low at 40.40 will do the same for the bears. With the stock closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, the latter is more probable than the former. A break below 37.76 would be a game changer in favor of the bears. SIMO generated a new 33-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.50 will be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance at 71.21 that if broken would offer open air above to 74.10. Short-term pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 66.08. The bulls have control right now. VWDRY generated a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.50 will be seen this week. One additional negative that occurred this week is that on Friday, the stock closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 8.61 (closed at 8.53) and if this break is not immediately negated this week, the bears will gain new and additional ammunition. Since the stock reported earnings, it has fallen 23% in value and that does suggest that the uptrend is over. Intraweek support is found at 8.48 and pivotal at 8.29. Pivotal weekly close resistance is now found between 8.86 and 8.98. Change of short-term downtrend resistance is found at 9.21 on a daily closing basis. Fundamentally though, the price target for the stock this year is 15.32 (that price target came out yesterday - Saturday), meaning that on that basis, this area (for a bull) offers an 80% appreciation value over the next 10 months. Z generated a very uneventful inside week, having traded in a minute $1.73 trading range (average weekly trading range is over $4) and closing very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slight higher chance of going below last week's low at 52.76 than above last week's high at 54.49. Having said that, the bears maintained the edge, having generated a red weekly close that was $1.27 cents below the previous week's close. In addition, the stock confirmed the failure to follow through to the upside after the stock made a new 2-year intraweek high 2 weeks ago after the better-than-expected earnings report. Pivotal daily close support is found at 51.92 and on the opposite side, a daily close above 56.78 would give the edge back to the bulls. The monthly close on Thursday is important. There is monthly close support at 54.16 that if broken, would generate a failure signal againste the bears. On a weekly closing basis, the 53.76 is important next Friday as a close below that level would generate a new sell signal against the bulls and give the bears back the edge. This is because it would break the 5 week uptrend that the stock got into in November and December and also invalidate the positives of the earnings report. With the stock closing at 53.53 on Friday, that monthly close support will be in play this week. ZLAB had an uneventful inside week but did close red, meaning that if the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next Friday, a successful retest of the 5-year weekly closing low at 18.68 will have occurred. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.43 will be seen this week. Short-term intraweek pivotal resistance is found at 21.10, which if broken would have open air up to 22.81. Short-term pivotal daily and weekly close resistance is found at 22.72. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and this earnings report seems to be highly pivotal, due to the low price levels that this stock is trading at right now. The expectations for the report is earnings of -$.87 cents on sales of $72 million. Anything better than that would likely generate a big rally. Any close on Thursday above 22.28 would generate a failure signal against the bears on the monthly closing chart and bring in new buying interest. Given that the Chinese market has rallied recently and there has not been any new negative news on the company, probabilities strongly favor the stock trading around the $22.50 level this week (about 10% higher), if the earnings report is not substantially lower than expected (unlikely). Evidently, any new multi-year daily close below the recent low daily close at 17.73, would be a big negative.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.94. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.42. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.oo. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.54. 5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.07. 6) TOL - Liquidated at 107.74. Loss on the trade of $845 per 100 shares. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.37. 9) Z - Averaged short at 58.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 54.80. 10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 23.90. 11) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss now at 71.27. Stock closed on Friday at 73.55. 12) RBLX - Averages short at 43.97 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 47.35. Stock closed on Friday at 41.45. 13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 69.09.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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