Issue #853
March 17, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bears have the edge. Correction likely to have started.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 38714
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5117
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 17808
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2039

In looking at the weekly "closing" charts, it cannot be said that last week was eventful. The DOW and the SPX closed red but minimally (less than .002%) and the NASDAQ dropped 1.2% and the RUT dropped 2.1%. None of these drops would normally be considered indicative. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily "closing" closing chart, lots of things did occur. The NASDAQ generated a sell and failure signal of some consequence, having broken on Friday, below 3 previous low daily closes, as well as generating a close below the previous all-time daily closing high at 17962 (made on Feb 8th). The RUT generated a sell signal on Thursday, and also generated a failure signal, having closed below the previous 23-month daily closing high at 2066. The SPX came within a hairs-breath of generating a sell signal, having closed at 5117 and the previous low daily close being at that same price. The DOW was the only index that did not generate anything of importance. Then again, that in and of itself, is indicative because when this index outperforms the others, in means money is shifting to "safe" stocks, which in turn means that the traders are "shifting gears" as they expect that the market will have problems going further to the upside.

Having said all of the above, the Fed rate decision for March will be announced on Wednesday. It is not expected that the Fed will do anything (expected that they will not raise or lower the rates) and if so, and nothing is stated by Fed Chief Powell in the subsequent news conference, these signals given this past week will start to gather further momentum to the downside (be confirmed). That is the outlook for this week, "but" the traders were not about to make a big decision this past week until this expectation becomes an actual fact.

The reality is that even in an overall bull market, corrections to the bull run are normal and yet the SPX has not seen a 2% correction since October, and as such, a correction is more than fully expected to happen soon. Corrections of over 5% are the norm in a "normal" market.

Evidently, this market has not been acting normal during the past few months. In fact, the SPX has appreciated 21.6% above the previous all-time high and the norm is usually around 15%. Simply stated, the rally is overdone.

The index to watch this week is the NASDAQ. On a daily closing basis, a close below 17478 would generate another sell signal and one of more importance than the sell signal generated this past week. Nonetheless and on a weekly closing basis, a sell signal will also be given if next Friday, the index closes below 17685. These two levels at 330 and 123 points below Friday's close. On the other side of the coin, a daily close above 18030 would negate the bear signals given this past week.

In slightly changing the subject, the RUT should have continued to outperform the other indexes this past week, especially if the traders were still somewhat bullish on the market (for the short-term). The fact that the index underperformed the other indexes is also a strong indication that this market seems to be ready to generate a correction of some consequence. Having said that, this index should not get the brunt of the selling as most of the stocks in it, are not overbought.

Wednesday's close should set the tone for what happens for the next few weeks.


GOLD generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2156 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Gold is so far away from the previous breakout levels that generating much further downside is not likely to be seen. As such, what is likely happening is that the bulls are trying to build a new support level from which to generate further upside. In looking at the daily chart, it does seen that a bullish flag formation is in the process of being formed. Though there is no established support nearby, the chart suggest that the downside target for this week is likely to be the $2150 and from which another 3-5 day of support building action on the daily chart will occur, before a new breakout above the recent high at $2203 occurs. As I mentioned last week, the chart pattern presently in place does offer a potential upside target of a high at $2382 could be seen within the next 6-9 weeks. There is no level below until $2072 is reached that has any importance and at this time, getting down to that level is a low probability.

OIL generated a short-term positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing above last week's high, as well as making a new 19-week intraweek high. Oil closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 81.62 will be seen this week. This rally is supported by the fact that last week's weekly supply and demand report showed a pull back in supply and an increase in demand. That report comes out again on Wednesday (at 10:00am) and that is always a possible catalyst. For now though, further upside is expected to be seen at the beginning of the week. There is open air above (on an intraweek basis) up to 82.66. Further intraweek resistance is found at 83.33, at 83.53 and lastly at 84.89. A break above 84.89 would open the door for a rally up to the $93 level. Nonetheless, at this time that scenario has a low probability rating. I do not know which of those 3 levels will stop the rally, but 82.66 is a definite high probability-for-this-week objective. To the downside, any close below 79.70 would begin to dis-inflate the rally.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

With the action seen last week and the overbought condition that presently exists, the trades that should be considered are sells. Nonetheless, some purchases in small cap stocks can still be considered. As such, there is one upside mention (the same one as given last week, which did not get down to the desired entry point) and three sell mentions that I am giving this week.

PURCHASES

MTA Friday Closing Price - 2.83

MTA was brought to my attention this past week, regarding the fundamental outlook of the stock for the year. MTA and NOVA merged 2 months ago and with MTA being a metals royalty company that keys on Gold and Silver, and Gold making hew highs for the past two week (and looking to continue higher) and NOVA being a company that makes electric buses, it means that buying the stock gets you into two different industries that both have much upside potential.

MTA has been in a downtrend from the intraweek high at 13.51 (seen in December 2020) to the recent 4-year low at 2.32 (seen 3 weeks ago) that seems to be in the process of building a bottom. The 2.04 to 2.16 level (on a daily closing basis) is a strongly established support that held up for over a year back in 2017-2018 and the recent daily closing low was 2.39, when the news of the merger hit. In reading one fundamental evaluation of the stock after the merger, it expects the stock to climb up to the $6-$8 area by the end of the year, and it is interesting to note that the 200-week MA is currently at 6.26.

MTA has now rallied 15.5% from the recent low (based on daily closes) and did generate a failure signal against the bears on the weekly chart on Friday, when the stock closed at 2.83 and the previous low weekly close was 2.70. On an intraweek and daily closing basis, support is now found at 2.60 and the probabilities of the stock getting back near that level are good. The stock has already generated 1 successful retest of the low on the daily closing chart but none yet on the weekly closing chart. The buy signal was given on the daily closing chart when 2.64 was broken, meaning that a drop down near the 2.60-2.64 level is highly probable before bigger interest in buying occurs. As such, that area (or close to it) will be the desired entry point.

To the upside, the bulls need to generate a daily close above 3.04 to confirm that the bottom has been set. As such, the probabilities favor the stock trading between 2.60 and 3.04 for the next 2 weeks. The 200-day MA is currently at 3.45 and there is a major pivotal point on the daily closing chart at 3.54 (3.28 on a weekly closing basis), that when broken will offer open air to the $5 level.

Purchases of MTA around the 2.64 level and using a daily close stop loss at 2.30 and having a 6.26 objective will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

<
Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMZN confirmed the previous week's negative reversal, having closed red for the 2nd week in a row. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 171.47 will be seen this week. In looking at the daily chart, the stock did make a new all-time high daily close at 178.75 on Thursday but then negated the breakout on Friday. Pivotal daily close support is found at 171.96, which if broken would cause the stock to fall and test the next daily close support at 167.08. If that level is broken, the mention's objective at 155.20 would become the target. Given that the stock did make a new all-time high daily close this past week, it is likely that high will be tested, meaning that at some point this week, the stock is likely to generate a daily close at 176.82 or perhaps even as high as 178.22. As such, the levels to watch for indicative action (on a daily closing basis) are 178.22 and 171.96.

BABA(based on the weekly close) the stock had an uneventful week given that it closed $.13 cents below the previous week's close. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and the closing red. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 73.22 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is found at 71.04. Having said that, the stock has been in a totally sideways trend for the past 17 weeks, between 66.92 and 78.84 but over the past 9 weeks, the chart is showing base building action with the 66.92 now having been tested successfully twice. This does suggest that for the bears to win, they do need help from the Chinese Index breaking below 16095 (closed on Friday at 16720) and that does not seem likely to happen. As such, I expect the stock to perhaps get as low as 72.18 but then turn around and generate a green weekly close next Friday. Adding positions and using a stop loss at 69.65 can be considered.

CALM made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing high but then closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 58.21 than above last week's high at 60.85. The area between 59.95 and 65.32 is a major resistance level with the stock having been up to that area on 7 different occasions over the past 2 years and always generating a drop of at least $8 from the high made. With the indexes now showing signs of a top having been made, the probabilities of the stock dropping at least $8 from last week's high (down to $52) are now high. On a daily closing basis, the 58.44 level seems to be pivotal. That level was the previous 11-month daily closing high and a close below that level will generate a failure signal against the bulls. A close below 55.80 would be the trigger point for the drop down to at least the $52 level. Nonetheless, that is not likely to occur this week. A rally above last week's high would give some additional ammunition to the bulls.

ENG generated another red weekly close and technically, generated a failure to follow through signal, having closed below the previous daily and weekly close at 1.75. Then again, the close was only $.03 cents below (at 1.72), so it is not a dependable failure signal. Having said that, it is important for the stock to not generate any additional red closes (on either the daily or weekly charts). If the bulls are unable to do that, the next support level is found at the 1.40-1.43 level. Short term pivotal resistance is now found at 1.84. The momentum to the upside has now ended and a new catalyst is required to restimulate further movement in either direction.

GCI generated a totally uneventful inside week with a weekly close just $.04 cents below last week's close. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.97 will be seen this week. The recent high and low at 2.12 and 1.95 are both now short-term pivot points, If the top one is broken, a rally to 2.34 could be seen and if the bottom one is broken, a drop down to 1.89 could be seen. The 2.63 and 1.66 levels are now important pivotal levels. Any trading between those two is not of consequence.

GILD generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek high and the closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.29 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 72.87, which should hold up. Pivotal support is found at 71.37. The stock seems to be in the process of building a new support base, after the 10-month weekly close support level at 74.42 level was broken. The 200-week MA, currently at 70.89 has now held up for 5 weeks and though the stock closed on the low of the month in February, the bears have not yet been able to take it below that level this month. As such, it will likely take a negative news event to generate further downside. On an intraweek basis, the 76.31 level is now pivotal resistance.

JD followed through to the upside after the better-than-expected earnings report came out the previous week. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 28.55 is expected to be seen this week. The stock is now very close to resistance levels that are pivotal to the upside. The 5-month intraweek high has been 29.27 and the 200-day MA is currently at 29.74. There is one further intraweek resistance at 30.80, which if broken would be a breakout of indicative consequence and give a $40 objective. Intraweek support is now found at 24.01, which if broken would erase this rally. This week is a short-term important week, given that the bulls have the momentum and they do not want to lose it. A break above 29.27 this week is a must and a break above 30.80 is a desired objective.

LXRX bears failed to generate any further downside, after having closed the previous week on the low of the week. The company did announce positive results on one of their presently researched drugs and the bulls took advantage and generated a green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.83 will be seen this week. If that does occur, the 3.24 level would be the immediate objective. The stock did gap up on Monday between 2.25 and 2.29 and if the 2.83 level is not broken in the first 2 days of the week, closure of that gap will be the objective. The 200-week MA is at 2.91 and if the bulls can break that line and confirm the break with a close next Friday above 3.18, a mini breakout of note will have occurred.

SIMO extended its rally this past week, having made a new 8-month intraweek high and a new 19-month weekly closing high. The stock closed near the high of the day and further upside above last week's high at 73.07 is expected to be seen this week. The new intraweek high made was only by $.02 cents and the new weekly closing high was only by $.28 cents, but then again, the Chinese index had a negative week, meaning the stock bucked the week's market trend. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is now found at 71.99 and stronger and more longer term pivotal support is found at 66.78. "Very" minor intraweek resistance is found at 73.80 and again at 74.47. Decent intraweek resistance is found at 81.87 and a bit stronger at 83.59. On a weekly closing basis, there is "open air" to the $80 level.

TOL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high but then closing red. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 117.24 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is now found at 122.72, which has a good chance of being seen this week. A break above last week's high at 124.67 would keep the uptrend intact. Nonetheless, the stock is way overbought and the stock likely overpriced, meaning that a correction is likely to occur, with the previous all-time high weekly close at 103.57 being the immediate (next 2-4 week) target. There is some very minor support at 115.51 and at 112.17 that could stimulate a small bounce but they are not dependable support levels.

VWDRY generated another red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.04 will be seen this week. There is a small mountain of intraweek support between 8.77 and 9.01 that is unlikely to get broken. The same is true about resistance, with a small mountain of intraweek resistance between 10.17 and 10.48. It is highly likely that for the next 2-4 weeks, the stock will trade between these levels. Ultimately though, the probabilities favor the bulls for the longer term and a $15 objective.

ZLAB generated a disappointing negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.47 will be seen this week. Once again, there was no negative news on the company, meaning that the negative action seen is difficult to explain. Having said that, the stock did gap up on 2/14 from 18.18 and that gap was then followed by a runaway gap. With the runaway gap having been closed 12-trading days ago, the breakaway gap has become a magnet for closure. It is the "only" explanation possible, given that the fundamental news on the company remains positive. Evidently, that gap is likely to be closed (and closed on Monday). As such, the week should be a positive one. The 6-year intraweek low is at 17.68 and if that gets broken, the bears will get new ammunition for lower prices. To the upside, there is no resistance until 21.10 is reached. A break above last week's high at 21.88 would give back the edge to the bulls. In looking at the "intraday" chart though, a rally above 18.80 would generate some short covering. As such, I expect the stock to open lower on Monday, fill the gap, and immediately turn around and start rallying.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.47.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.72.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.09.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.17.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.60.

6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 73.42.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.40.

9) CALM - Shorted at 58.66. Stop loss now at 62.01. Stock closed on Friday at 59.41.

10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 27.45.

11) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss now at 71.27. Stock closed on Friday at 73.69.

12) AMZN - Shorted at 176.51. Stop loss at 180.35. Stock closed on Friday at 174.42.

13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 72.48.

14) TOL - Shorted at 121.49. Stop loss at 124.77. Stock closed on Friday at 120.31.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Dec 03, 2023 Newsletter

View Dec 10, 2023 Newsletter

View Dec 17, 2023 Newsletter

View Dec 24, 2023 Newsletter

View Dec 31, 2023 Newsletter

View Jan 07, 2024 Newsletter

View Jan 14, 2024 Newsletter

View Jan 21, 2024 Newsletter

View Jan 28, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 04, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 11, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 18, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 25, 2023 Newsletter

View Mar 03, 2024 Newsletter

View Mar 10, 2024 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.