Issue #854
March 24, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls are back in full control. No obstacles in sight for this week.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 39475
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5234
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 18339
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2071

The rally continued as the indexes added another 2% to the 22-week rally that started in October and that has caused a total appreciation in value of over 22%. The indexes all closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside will be seen next week. With no possible catalytic economic reports due out next week, there does not seem to be anything in this coming week's picture that can stop this runaway freight train.

With the exception of the NASDAQ and in looking at the "daily charts", the indexes generated a red daily close on Friday and a close in the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. All the indexes did generate a gap up on Thursday, which came without news that would support it. Nonetheless, the DOW and RUT did close their respectively gaps on Friday, which means that the SPX and the NASDAQ should close theirs on Monday. The former only needs to drop 8 points and the latter needs to drop 90 points from Friday closes to close their individual gaps.

The NASDAQ is going to be the indicative index to watch this week. To begin with, it has lagged the other indexes during the past 2 months but it did make a new all-time daily and weekly close this past week (above 18302 on both charts) and the bulls need to maintain themselves above that level this week. Two daily closes below that level, as well as a close next Friday below that level, would throw a "cold water bucket" on the rally. With AAPL likely to be under sell pressure this week, the bulls are going to have a hard time keeping the index moving higher. A faltering in this index, will take away some ammunition from the bulls overall, and given that this is a "runaway freight train" scenario, the bulls cannot afford any slowdown in momentum at this time.

It also needs to be mentioned that several of the big tech stocks (apart from AAPL) also have an important "must-do" week. Both GOOGL and AMZN closed on Friday, just a few points below their all-time highs, and META and MSFT made new all-time high weekly closes on Friday but just a few points above the previous all-time highs. In both cases with the first two, they need to make new highs this week and in the case of the last two, they need to confirm the new highs. As you can see, the NASDAQ (and its big stocks) are going to be in the highlight this week.

The RUT also has an important (and likely pivotal to the overall market) week. The index has daily and weekly close resistance at 2091 that the bulls also need to break in order to the full participation of the overall market in the breakout. The index closed on Friday at 2071 and that means that the bulls are also going to be forced to push this index higher in order to get this overbought market continuing forward.

There is nothing else to say (chart-wise) about the index market. None of the other 2 indexes have any levels of important or pivotal support close by. As such this week will be about Tech and small cap stocks to give the clues.


GOLD had a wild week, having first gone below the previous week's low and then on Thursday (after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday), it made a new all-time high at $2224. That rally got wiped out with it dropping $66 from Thursday's high to Friday's low. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, Gold did close $5 higher than the previous week, meaning that overall, the action for the week was uneventful. As such, things remain the same with $2049 now being seen as a short-term pivot point. Nonetheless, the $2224 high has now gotten the status of short-term pivotal resistance. It is likely that Gold will trade within this range for the next couple of weeks.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having gotten up to the 2nd established resistance level at 83.53 (high last week was 83.85) and then turning around to close red. Oil closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 80.30 will be seen this week. The downside target for this week (or the following one) is 77.59. Reaching that level will suggest that oil will trade between that level and 82.66 for the next few weeks, or until new fundamental news comes out. It does seem that no breakout will be occurring at this time. The 77.50 to 82.50 trading range for 2-4 weeks seems to be a high probability. As such, there is not going to be a lot of trading or interest in Oil at this time.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

With the action seen last week and bulls being in control, sales cannot be considered. By the same token, the big stocks are overbought and offer high risk if purchased. As such, purchases are the only thing that can be considered this week but only those stocks that are not presently overbought and that do have clear support levels close by. There are two stocks that I was able to find that do fit those parameters. One of the mentions was first given 2 weeks ago and again last week, but the desired entry point was not reached. It is likely to be reached this week.

PURCHASES

MTA Friday Closing Price - 2.94

MTA was brought to my attention a few weeks ago, regarding the fundamental outlook of the stock for the year. MTA and NOVA merged 2 months ago and with MTA being a metals royalty company that keys on Gold and Silver, and Gold making hew highs for the past two week (and looking to continue higher) and NOVA being a company that makes electric buses, it means that buying the stock gets you into two different industries that both have much upside potential.

MTA has been in a downtrend from the intraweek high at 13.51 (seen in December 2020) to the recent 4-year low at 2.32 (seen 5 weeks ago) that seems to be in the process of building a bottom. The 2.04 to 2.16 level (on a daily closing basis) is a strongly established support that held up for over a year back in 2017-2018 and the recent daily closing low was 2.39, when the news of the merger hit. In reading one fundamental evaluation of the stock after the merger, it expects the stock to climb up to the $6-$8 area by the end of the year, and it is interesting to note that the 200-week MA is currently at 6.26.

MTA has now rallied 24.2% from the recent low (based on daily closes) and did generate a failure signal against the bears on the weekly chart 3 weeks ago. Nonetheless, the stock generated a red week this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.88 will be seen this week. On an intraweek and daily closing basis, support is now found at 2.60 but on a weekly closing basis, support is found at 2.70. Last week's low is a short-term pivot point, which if broken would suggest that at least 2.75 will be seen, with possibilities that a drop down to the 2.60-2.70 level will occur. The stock has already generated 1 successful retest of the low on the daily closing chart but none yet on the weekly closing chart. As such, it is likely that is what is now occurring.

It is of note that the bulls have already generated a daily close above 3.04 (closed at 3.15 2 weeks ago) and that means that the bottom has been set. As such, the probability rating for this stock has increased . The 200-day MA (currently at 3.39) is now the target to be reached within the next 3-6 weeks. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 6.24 and that is the longer term (6-9 months) target.

Purchases of MTA below 2.76 and using a daily close stop loss at 2.51 and having a $6 objective will offer a 13-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

AEP Friday Closing Price - 82.95

AEP is an American Electric Utility company that offers some security in purchasing (as far as risk is concerned) given that is not a high volatility stock and has a history of trading in well-defined trading ranges that are easily supported and rarely broken.

Over the past 5 years, AEP has traded mostly between $75 and $105 (based on monthly closes) and closed on Friday at $83 and is due to go lower this coming week. Having said that, the stock built a double bottom 74.85/75.22, and that double bottom already shows 1 successful retest at 78.14, meaning that it is unlikely the stock will get down that low on this present move down. There is quite a bit of support between 79.64 and 81.22 (on a monthly closing basis), with the latter being the recent breakout point and buy signal given. Reaching the 81.22 level is a high probability and on an intraweek basis, getting down to $80 demilitarized zone is also probable as there are two previous intraweek lows at 80.22 and 80.30 that are probably going to be seen.

To the upside, AEP has an objective of at least 91.49 and perhaps as high at 94.21 (based on intramonth basis), meaning that a 17% appreciation in price could be seen over the next 4-6 months.

Purchases of AEP somewhere between 81.23 and 80.30 and using a stop loss at 79.62 (based on a daily closing basis) and having a 94.21 objective, offers an 8-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

BABA generated another red weekly close (the 4th in a row) and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 72.04 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock has only fallen a total of 3.3% (from 74.62 to 72.13) over this period of time, and in doing so, no sell signals have been given. The 71.04 level remains short-term pivotal support and based on the base building action seen during the past 2 months, the probabilities of a break of support are very low. To the upside, a move above 74.74 would be a short-term positive and a break above 78.34 would confirm that a bottom has been found and a recovery of some consequence to be seen.

ENG generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) but it was only by $.01 cent and as such, not indicative. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.60 will be seen this week. The next support level is found at the 1.40-1.43 level, but the way the stock has been acting, that is not likely to be seen and much less broken. Short term pivotal resistance is now found at 1.84 but the 1.75 level (on a daily or weekly closing basis) is indicative. At this time though, it does not seem that the bulls or the bears are going to be successful.

GCI generated spike up rally in which a new buy signal, as well as a failure-signal-against-the-bears was given on the daily closing chart. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.28 will be seen this week. There is now open air up to the 2.40 level, which if broken on a daily closing basis, will be short-term indicative given that the 200-day MA, currently at 2.39, will be broken, as well as a minor intraweek resistance at that level. The 2.62/2.63 level shows a double high resistance, which if broken would be a game changer. It would open the door for a rally up to 3.28, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at, and it would also confirm that the 30-month downtrend is over. Pivotal support is now found at 1.95, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised from 1.60 to 1.85.

GILD generated follow through to the downside (after last week's negative reversal) and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 72.56 will be seen this week. This is definitely an important week for the stock, given that the 200-week MA is currently at 70.99 and that line is now showing 2 successful retest of it on the weekly closing chart. If a green close occurs next Friday, there would then be 3 successful retests of the line. If that is followed by a break of the previous week's high weekly close at 75.12, it would mean the recent downtrend is over and would stimulate a strong short-covering rally that would offer a minimum rally up to $81-$83 area. Any daily close below 71.58 would give new ammunition to the bears and any weekly close below the MA line, would generate a strong mid-to-long-term trend change. In looking at the overall action seen this past week, the bears presently have a small edge. As such, the stock needs to be monitored closely this week.

JD generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.5 will be seen this week. The red weekly close keeps the stock in a downtrend in spite of the better-than-expected earnings report 3 weeks ago. By the same token, The stock is in the process of building a bottom to the downtrend and a retest of the double bottom at 20.82/21.18 is required/needed. As such, a drop down to the now established support between 24.01 and 24.66 is expected. If that level holds up and the stock rallies from it thereafter, the bottom will become established and a short-covering rally will then ensue. Pivotal to the trend resistance level is at 29.27, which if broken would mean the downtrend is over and a rally to $40 would then likely be seen. On a daily closing basis, there is support at 25.18 and pivotal at 23.99. As such, this week is likely to be mostly red with the stock having closed on Friday at 26.50. Nonetheless, the outlook thereafter is positive.

LXRX generated a red week, meaning that the previous week is now a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 2.91. As such, the bears still have the edge. It was a disappointing week as the bulls were supposed to get above the previous week's high and get to the MA, but they failed to do so and now the recent low at 2.09 is at risk of getting broken and generating a drop down to the 1.71-1.87 level. The monthly chart (which ends this Friday) suggests that a drop below last month's low at 1.85 will occur. Such a drop would not necessarily be a negative as the .92 low seen in November has not yet had a required/needed retest of it, on the monthly chart. As such, a drop down to 1.71 is probably going to happen, if not this month, then at the beginning of next month. The only way the bulls can prevent such a scenario is by closing above the 200-week MA, on a confirmed basis.

SIMO appreciated an additional 10% in value this past week(using the previous week's close and last week's intraweek high). The stock did see selling interest come in at the $80 level as it got to 80.60 on Thursday and immediately backed off to close the day at 78.15 and then generated a red day on Friday. Having said that, the stock still closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above 80.60 will be seen this week. The backing off the high, probably had to do with the gap that was created on Thursday from 76.25, which was not supported with news. As such, closure of the gap is likely to occur in the first day or two of the week and then further upside seen. The objective of the mention was the $81-$83 level, and it is possible that level could be seen this week. Consideration should be given to taking profits then, and buying back on a correction. Unfortunately, there is no close-by support, meaning that the bulls have to keep the momentum going forward (after the gap is closed).

SNDL generated a highly eventful week, having made a new 6-month high and breaking a 2-year 3-point downtrend line. The stock appreciated 18% in value just on Friday alone and this rally was supported by news (better than expected earnings, as well as announced lower restrictions on Cannabis products in Germany). As such, this is a true breakout, that is also supported by new movement in the U.S. to talk about taking restrictions away from Cannabis in the U.S. This is a stock that just 5 years ago was trading at $132, meaning that if Cannabis restrictions are further cut down here in the U.S., this stock could go a long way. Nonetheless and on a shorter-term basis, the next level on an intraweek basis is at 2.36 and the one after that is at 3.36 (3.13 on a weekly closing basis). Should that level get broken, the stock will get into an uptrend that could ultimately take the stock all the way up to the $13 level before the end of the year. Based on the positive fundamental news, it is unlikely that any weakness will be seen but any confirmed daily close below the 200-day MA, currently at 1.53, would tend to defuse this breakout. Nonetheless, the established 2-year downtrend line is at 1.64 and the daily close breakout level is at 1.67, suggesting that level will not be broken on a daily closing basis. This is a stock to consider buying at this time.

TOL made another new all-time high this past week and that is the 5th week in a row of new all-time highs it has made. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 128.10 is expected to be seen. The stock has now generated 7 weeks in a row without a single week going below a previous week's low and that screams for some type of correction to begin soon. The stock did gap up on Thursday from 124.39 and the gap occurred because Oppenheimer raised their upside target to $157. That type of news does not support a gap being made, meaning that closure of the gap is likely to occur this week, and should be used to cover the shorts and take the loss on the trade. If by any chance the stock gets below 120.32, keeping the shorts can be considered. At this time though, that does not seem to be a viable possibility.

VWDRY generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.71 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 10.02, intraweek resistance is at 10.18, and midterm pivotal resistance is at 10.62. Intraweek support is now found at 9.04. The end of the month is on Friday and a close above 9.69 would be a positive. The stock does show supportive fundamentals and chart action, but the question remains as to whether it is ready to breakout now or in a few weeks from now.

ZLAB continued to show weakness and ended up making a new 67-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed out the week at 16.18 and the all-time weekly closing low is 15.70. On a monthly closing basis (Friday), the all-time low is at 16.36. This does mean that this week is going to be highly indicative for the stock. The bulls need to make a statement as to what the short-to-midterm future of the stock is to be. Any daily close above 17.73 would generate a failure-to-follow-through signal against the bears. Any intraweek break below 14.29 would be strongly negative.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.18.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.71.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.66.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.26.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 2.22.

6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 72.13.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.75.

9) CALM - Covered shorts at 61.72l. Shorted at 58.66. Loss on the trade of $316 per 100 shares.

10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 26.50.

11) GILD - Purchased at 71.85. Stop loss now at 71.27. Stock closed on Friday at 72.611.

12) AMZN - Covered short at 179.46. Shorted at 176.51. Loss on the trade of $298 per 100 shares.

13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 77.61.

14) TOL - Shorted at 121.49. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 126.21.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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