Issue #859
April 28, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bear short-term control goes on a pause basis.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 38239 All indexes generated a bounce this past week with green closes and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 38562, SPX above 5114, NAZ above 17772 and RUT above 2010) will be seen this week. Nonetheless and with the exception of the DOW, all indexes generated an inside week, meaning that the recovery rally was not indicative-of-a-bottom to the correction having been found. In addition, none of the indexes was able to generate a weekly close that broke any weekly close resistance. The indexes did get some fundamental help this past week, with GOOGL being the biggest contributor. The stock did get a much better than expected earnings report that caused a new all-time high to be made, as well as a 10% rally above the previous week's weekly close. In addition, MSFT, and AMZN did generate a positive reversal weeks (after earnings came out). On the opposite side of the coin, META did report negative earnings and it dropped 8% in value. Bottom line, earnings were of help to the bulls but not in an even and indicative way. One important thing to understand is that none of the indexes has yet to generate a retest of the all-time highs on the weekly chart. Given that there has not been any kind of news that would fundamentally support believing that a top to the uptrend has been found, or even a top to the recent rally, a successful retest of the highs is required/needed. Since the new highs were made, none of the indexes (with the exception of the DOW, this past week) has gone above a previous week's high. It is expected that all the indexes will do that this week, meaning that it would then become possible that such a retest could begin to occur. In looking at the daily closing chart, these are the levels of resistance that will be "in play" this week. A close above them, would give the bulls a bit of the edge back. A failure to get above them, will keep the bears with the edge. In the DOW, that level of resistance is between 38585 and 38596. If broken, the pivotal level above would be at 39139. A close above that level would be a short-term game changer. In the SPX, that level is between 5117 and 5137 and the pivotal level is at 5175. In the NASDAQ, that level is between 17808 and 17962 and that is the same level of pivotal resistance. In the RUT the first level of resistance is at 2003. Having closed at 2001 on Friday, it does seem that level is likely to be broken. The next level of daily close resistance above is at 2024 and the pivotal level is at 2066. For the first 3 days of this week, there are no economic or earnings reports that can be catalytic, meaning that the charts will take precedence and that likely means more upside than downside. Nonetheless, this is an important week for reports as on Wednesday, the ISM Index report comes out, on Thursday afternoon, AAPL reports earnings and on Friday, the JOBS comes out. By the same token, Tuesday has some importance as far as the charts are concerned, as that is the end of the month and the monthly charts will have some importance. Having said all of the above, here are the levels of daily close support below, which if broken would give the edge back to the bears. In the DOW, a daily close below 37735 would generate a new sell signal and give back control to the bears. In the SPX, a close below 4967 would do the same, in the NASDAQ, that level is 16973, and in the RUT it is at 1942. The probabilities continue to favor the bears overall (for further downside) but it is unlikely that anything of any consequence will happen before Friday.
OIL generated a green weekly close that means that the previous week's close at 83.14 can now be considered to be a successful retest of the now pivotal weekly close support at 82.79. Having said that, the bulls have been unable to do anything of consequence that would suggest that further upside of note is coming. In looking at the daily closing chart, to the upside the 85.02 level is short-term pivotal and to the downside, the 82.69 level is short-term pivotal. With Oil closing on Friday at 83.85, both levels are about the same distance, meaning that some new piece of news (or some type of catalyst) needs to occur for Oil to do anything of note. Overall though, it can be said that the bulls have a very slight edge at this time.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again I have no new mentions this week. The market is presently not set up (at these prices) to offer any good risk/reward options to either side. In addition, the short-to midterm outlook is still unclear. Having said that, consideration can (and should be) given to adding positions to the presently held LXRX. The stock is at a very pivotal support level and yet the fundamental outlook for the company (long term) is very positive. The average price to be reached within the next year is $7 and the stock is down at the 1.50 level. A break below 1.31 would negate the bullish outlook, meaning that a purchase around this level does offer a very attractive 20-1 (or better) risk/reward ratio for the following 12-18 months.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMZN generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 180.62 will be seen this week. In looking back, I should have taken profits when the stock got down to the low of the week at 166.32, as it was unlikely that the intraweek support at 165.74 would be broken at this time. Having said that "and" not having taken profits, the stock seems to be in the retesting of the all-time high that was made 4 weeks ago at 189.77 level. If the retest is successful, a short-term downtrend would likely begin that could take the stock all the way down to at least the $160 level (original objective of the mention). The stock did generate a failure signal against the bulls the previous week and that signal was confirmed this week with a 2nd close below the previous all-time high weekly close at 185.97. A rally above last week's high would open the door to the necessary/required retest of the all-time high. If all of that occurs, the correction will resume. On a daily closing basis, there is quite a bit of resistance at the $180 demilitarized zone, meaning that if the bears want to have success soon, no green closes above that level should occur this week. BABA generated a spike up rally this past week, having increased in value 8.6% (from the previous week's close). The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 76.93 will be seen this week. The bulls came very close to a breakout of note, given that the 75.96 level has been the high weekly close for the past 17 weeks and the stock closed on Friday at 75.55. A close above that level this Friday, would be a strong positive. Having said that, the green close means that the stock now shows a double low weekly close at 69.42/69.07, which does strengthen the chart substantially and also means that it is now a very important and pivotal weekly close support level. On a daily closing basis, the stock did generate a new buy signal, having closed above the 6-week high daily close at 74.85. The bulls are facing a strong daily close resistance area between 76.39 and 78.23 and then if they can break that level, they will again face a very important area of daily close resistance around the $80 level, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 80.40. Nonetheless, if the bulls are able to close above the 79.55 level on "Tuesday" (end of the month), it will generate a failure signal of consequence (against the bears) on the monthly closing chart, which would suggest that the 42-month downtrend is over and that a recovery rally up to at least the $100 level would occur over the next couple of months. Daily close support is now found between 71.37 and 72.04, which if broken would be a signal that this rally has failed and a reason for considering to get out of the positions held. DD generated an uneventful inside week with a close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 74.36 than going below last week's low at 72.80. Nonetheless, the stock did make a new 6-week weekly closing low and the bears maintain the short-term edge. During the last 10 days, the stock has maintained itself above the 200-day MA, currently at 73.02, but given that the bulls have been unable to generate any big and indicative bounce off of that line (in spite of the indexes rallying), does give the bears the overall edge. A confirmed close below that line, will offer open air down to the $70 level and given that the support there is not strong, a drop as low as $67 could occur. On a short-term basis, any daily close above 73.91 would probably generate a rally back up to the 75.50 level. Any close on Tuesday (monthly close) below 76.67 would be a positive for the bears. ENG continued to trade in a totally sideways fashion and in a small trading range with extremely low volume. In fact, it has been the smallest trading range and the lowest volume in at least the past 10 years. The monthly close is on Tuesday and there are two levels (one support and one resistance) at 1.35 and 2.23 that are not likely to be seen or reached, meaning that for now, the stock remains without any short-term direction. The 1.72/1.75 level has been a somewhat short pivot point (in both the daily and weekly closing charts) during the past 2 months and the stock closed on Friday at 1.68, meaning that for the present time, the bears have a small edge. Nonetheless, nothing is likely to happen until some news comes out. The earnings report is due out on May 9th (in 2 weeks) and that could be a catalyst. Nonetheless, this company has had a habit on not reporting when the report is due out. Having said that, I have no other comment on the stock at this time. GCI generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-month intraweek high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.51 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in looking at the weekly closing chart, it was an uneventful week as the weekly close pivot point resistance at 2.59, which was "technically" broken the previous week with a close at 2.60, and now giving a "technical" failure signal with a close at 2.58. Technical breakouts of failures by $.01 cent are not dependable. The company will be reporting earnings on Thursday (May 2nd) and that is likely to be pivotal. On a short-term basis, the stock gapped down on Thursday and that gap was not supported with news, meaning it will likely be closed this week. The gap is up at 2.69 and if the bulls can generate a confirmed daily close above that level, they will get the edge back. There is presently some intraweek support at 2.49, which should not get broken this week, unless the earnings report is negative. JD generated an indicative breakout this past week, having made a new 6-month intraweek high and breaking convincingly above the 200-day MA, currently at 28.40 (closed on Friday at 30.34). The reason for the breakout is that Goldman Sachs started coverage on the stock with a buy rating and a target of $37. The company will be reporting earnings on May 16th and until then, this breakout is likely to remain. The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 30.46 will be seen this week. Having said that though, the stock does show intraweek resistance at 30.80 and more importantly, weekly close resistance at 30.34. This means that if the stock does generate a red weekly close this Friday, that a retest of the breakout of the 200-day MA, is likely to be seen over the next few weeks (until the earnings report comes out). By the same token, if the 30.80 intraweek high is broken and the stock generates a green weekly close next Friday, there is open air above to the $34 level. LXRX generated another red close week, having made a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.52 will be seen this week. There has been no negative news on the company, meaning that this drop is basically chart-oriented. The initial breakout level on the weekly closing chart is at 1.53 and it is now evident that level is going to be retested. If the retest is successful, a rally back up to at least the 2.50 (and up to 2.75) is likely to occur over the next few weeks, or until the next earnings report the second week of May. The probabilities do favor the stock holding above the 1.53 level (on a weekly closing basis) and moving back up. Nonetheless and on an intraweek basis, it is possible for the stock to get down to as much as the 1.31 level. On a short-term intraweek basis, the 1.93 level is pivotal. SNDL bears failed to generate further downside this past week (after closing near the low the previous week) and did generate a green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above lst week's high at 2.08 will be seen this week. This green close suggests that the previous week's close at 1.87 has become a successful retest of a previous high weekly close at 1.81 and from which a rally to 2.36 occurred. The action seen is a decent positive, meaning that the bears have not gained their short-term edge back. The company reports earnings on May 9th, so it is unlikely that a break of the recently established weekly closing high at 2.20 will be broken (2.36-2.48 on an intraweek basis) but getting up to that area is likely to be seen. As such and for the next 9 trading days, the stock is likely to trade between 1.90 and 2.36. VWDRY generated a green weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.85 will be seen this week. Tuesday is the monthly close and presently the stock is having a 4th red monthly close in a row, but if the bulls are able to close out the month above 8.76 (closed on Friday at 8.74), and especially if they can close out the month at 8.96 (or higher), these 4 red months will lose their negativity and simply become a needed/required retest of an important low month close support after the breakout that occurred in December (if an when a green monthly close occurs in May). In looking at the daily chart, it was a positive week for the bulls, given that the break of the 200-day MA, currently at 8.53, was negated this past week with closes above the line every day of the week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 9.53 but on a daily closing basis, a close above 8.98 would give the edge back to the bulls and open the door for almost an immediate rally up to 9.50 level. Any daily close below 8.29 would now be a strong negative. The company reports earnings on May 8th. ZLAB accomplished generating a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above the previous all-time low weekly close at 15.70 (closed at 15.91). If the bulls can accomplish doing the same on Tuesday (monthly close) and close above 16.36, a statement will be made that a bottom has been built at 13.48. The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.12 will be seen this week. In looking at the daily chart, the bulls still need to do more to establish the bottom. There is established (though minor) intraweek resistance at 16.13 and again at 16.73. A break of the former would be a positive and a break of the latter would be a statement. Given that it is expected that the stock will go above last week's high, the former is likely to happen. A break of the latter is what is still not clear whether the bulls can make it happen. The company reports earnings on May 8th and that is going to be a pivotal report. One somewhat troubling chart reality is that there is an open gap down at 14.23, which will be targeted if the bulls are unable to break the resistance levels mentioned above. By the same token, if another gap appears, that would have the opposite effect. In considering the gap below, if the now built intraweek support at 15.05 is broken, the gap will become an immediate magnet. On the opposite side, if 16.73 is broken, a breakaway/runaway gap formation is likely to occur. This earnings report is of major importance and that is only 8 days away.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.93. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.68. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.74. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.58. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 2.58. 6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 75.55. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.01. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 25.51. 10) AMZN - Shorted at 187.10. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 179.62. 11) DD - Shorted at 76.80. Stop loss at 78.35. Stock closed on Friday at 73.71.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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