Issue #861
May 12, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Inflation report on Wednesday is likely to decide whether new all-time highs are made or whether the index will trade sideways.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 38675 All indexes generated a new 4 or 5-week intraweek high and all (with the exception of the RUT) closed at the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 39579, SPX above 5239, and NAZ above 18247). The bulls have now set themselves up for a "sink or swim" scenario given that they all broke above the previous low daily and/or low weekly closes and generated a failure signal against the bears. This situation puts the bulls in a scenario where they "must" make new all-time highs or face a round of profit taking that would cause at least a retest of the recent lows of the correction on the start or a longer-term downtrend. The inflation report (CPI) comes out Wednesday morning and it is expected that it will come in at (or lower) than the previous month's number at .4%. If that does occur, the current expectations is that the Fed will begin to cut rates in June and generate new buying interest and a resumption of the economic recovery that has been occurring during this year. As such, the inflation report is a strong pivotal fundamental point that will decide whether new all-time highs are made or not. The all-time intraweek highs are in the DOW at 39889 (on a weekly closing basis at 39808), in the SPX it is at 5264 (on a weekly closing basis at 5254), in the NAZ at 18464 (on a weekly closing basis at 18339). With these levels being 214, 35, and 574 points above (respectively) from Friday's closes, they are evidently easily reachable this week. To the downside, the following daily closing levels are where (if broken) would suggest that the action last week was not indicative of the strength that was shown. In the DOW that level is at 38283, in the SPX that level is at 5203, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 18011. These levels are not breakdown levels but would begin to shift back the bullish move that was accomplished last week. Again, this is a week that is likely to pivot on an economic report and nothing else. The above levels are just chart points to watch for indications of what might happen or did happen to the report. Nothing else matters this week.
OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low and then closing green. Nonetheless, the positive reversal week seems to be uneventful, given that Oil closed only by $.09 cents above the previous week's close and more importantly, closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 76.91 than above last week's high at 79.97 (closed at 78.20). Oil did hold up above a minor weekly close support at 78.20 but it was a disappointing week for the bulls, given that Gold was up and the index market was up and Oil made the high of the week on Friday, and yet gave up over 50% of its gains by the close of the day. It is likely that Oil (like everything else) will move off of what the inflation report says and what the reaction of the Fed will be. As such, I do expect the first 2 days of the week to be mostly uneventful. I expect Oil to trade between 77.50 and 79.00 for the first 2 days of the week and then move based on the inflation report. Evidently, a break below 76.57 or above 80.85 will be short-term indicative.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
I have no new mention but the one that did not get filled last week (did not expect it to happen) could get filled this week.
SNOW Friday Closing Price - 157.15
SNOW is a cloud-based data platform that is using AI to increase its efficiency. With AI being a "hot" industry for the future and this company being oversold and likely undervalued, it is one to purchase now. The stock is presently oversold and according to several sources, strongly undervalued. This stock fell in value 40% between February and April (from $237 to $144) but has now started to recover. On Thursday, one of the rating companies (BNP) raised its price target to $200.
SNOW made an all-time high in November 2021 at $405 and then proceeded to fall precipitously to $110 over the following 8 months. Since then, that low has now been tested successfully on 4 occasions with drops down to 119.27. to 128.56, to 138.40 and to 145.55 just 4 weeks ago. This action has been successful in building a very solid bottom that is a base for a strong breakout to occur sometime over the next 3-6 months. Having said that, this mention today is not about a breakout occurring at this time but about a rally to test one of the highs made over the past two years, which are either at 193.94 or at 205.66. I would expect a 5th retest of the lows to occur thereafter, followed by a breakout above the 2-year high at 237.72 and a rally up to at least the $330 level. This kind of chart action over the past 2 years, followed by being in a very "hot" industry for the future, as well as this being a strong company in that industry, suggests this is a stock to be traded consistently over the next year or two.
SNOW made a new 23-week low 5 weeks ago and that low does require a retest of it. With the stock reporting earnings on May 22nd (2 weeks from now), it was not likely that a desired entry point would happen last week, given that the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range on the previous Friday and further upside was likely (and did happen) last week. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 155.42 will be seen this week. On the intraweek chart, there is no support found until the 151.49 level is reached.
The desired entry point into SNOW will be somewhere between 150.62 and 153.00. The stop loss point will be at 146.65 and the objective will be 193.94, meaning a risk of no more than $635 for a profit potential of at least $4394 (per 100 shares). It is a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
|
Updates
|
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
|
|
BABA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-month intraweek high and closing red and very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 77.81 than above last week's high at 82.22 (closed at 80.01). Having said that though, the bulls were able to close above the previous 6-month weekly closing low at 79.97 (the level that was broken last week and gave a failure signal against the bears), suggesting that this move down was simply a normal retest of that level. Nonetheless, the stock does report earnings this week on Tuesday morning and that will be a pivotal report. A daily close below 78.23 would now be seen as a negative, meaning that on Tuesday (after the report), if the stock is looking to close below that level, consideration to taking profits on the trade should be given. On the other side of the coin, a daily close above 81.55 would suggest the $86 level would be the next objective. DD followed through to the upside (after the previous week's positive earnings report) and did generate another green weekly close, which did confirm the breakout. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 79.63 than below last week's low at 77.98. Nonetheless, the small trading range of $1.63 was the smallest in 18 weeks and does suggest that much further upside will require help from the index market and that could be decided (either way) with Wednesday's inflation report. The stock did generate a red daily close on Friday that suggests further downside below Friday's low at 78.39 will be seen on Monday. There are two levels of support below that are important and likely pivotal at this time. The first one is at 78.08 (previous multi-month daily close) and at 77.67 (recent low daily close). A close below the former would be a slight negative and a close below the latter would generate a sell signal that would likely thrust the stock down to test the gap between 73.88 and 76.69. There is no established intraweek support until 75.41 is reached. To the upside, resistance is found at 81.57 and then nothing until 84.08. ENG reported earnings this past week but evidently they were uneventful as the stock went above the previous week's high by only $.04 cents and then proceeded to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.63 will be seen. On a weekly closing basis though, the stock only closed $.04 cents lower than the previous week's low close. Short-term intraweek pivotal support is at 1.57. If that level is broken, there is no support below until 1.35. Intraweek resistance is found at 1.95. At this time and with the earnings report out, there is little to be had (or risked) at this time. GCI reported another green weekly close (after the previous week's better-than-expected earnings report) and did reach the 200-week MA, currently at 3.32, with a high at 3.32. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high or below last week's low at 3.10. Evidently a close above the line next Friday would be a tangible positive. Nonetheless, if the stock closes red next Friday, further building of support at a higher level that is present found (down at 2.35) will be occurring. The stock does show (on the daily chart), that a bullish flag formation is currently being built and that if broken (a rally above 2.32) would offer a short-term upside objective of 3.27. As far as the flag itself is concerned, the 2.03 level is support that should not be broken if the flag is to be maintained. GME made a new 9-month intraweek high but failed to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday at 17.46 and the 9-month weekly closing high is at 17.53. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 20.10 than below last week's low at 13.67. The stock is very volatile and manipulated, so both are possible. There is presently established support at 16.18 and the 200-day MA is currently at 15.16 but the bulls do have the edge right now and therefore, the manipulation is more likely to occur in favor of the bulls than the bears. There is pivotal daily close resistance at 18.37 and even more so at 19.23. If those get broken, there is open air to the $25 level (mention's objective). JD generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-month intraweek high but then closing red. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 31.34 or above last week's high at 33.03. The red close came at a level of importance as the previous week's close at 32.87 has now become a successful retest of the low weekly close at 33.10, which when broken caused all the weakness seen the past 6 months. Having said that, it was not a convincing red close as buying at the lows of the week occurred. Nonetheless, it does mean that the stock does need the Chinese market to continue higher. On a daily closing basis, a close below 31.95 would weaken the chart for the short-term and having closed on Friday at 32.20 does mean that the bulls cannot afford any weakness starting on Monday. Below 31.95, there is no daily closing support until 30.30 is reached. A daily close above 33.10 would suggest that a visit to the $40 level would be "in the works". LXRX generated an uneventful inside week with a green weekly close but a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.71 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, such a move down is required/needed so that the previous week's 15-week low at 1.48 gets the retest of it. There is no established intraweek support until 1.59 is reached but on a daily closing basis, the 200-day MA is currently at 1.67. Any daily close above 1.95 would give the edge back to the bulls. SNDL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.15 will be seen this week. The reason for the negative reversal is that the bulls were unable to break above the 18-month intraweek high (made 7 weeks ago) at 2.67 (high last week was 2.63). The bulls are awaiting more tangible information about the Cannabis industry proposal before making further gains. By the same token, there have been enough positives that it is unlikely much downside will be seen anytime soon. On a short-term basis and on a daily closing basis, there is support at 2.20 and again at 2.03. Only a close below 1.83 would truly weaken the chart. A daily close above 2.53 would be a positive, a daily close above 2.78 would make 2.84 a gimme and a daily close above 3.00 would be a breakout of note. At this time, the stock is likely to trade between 2.00 and 2.50. VWDRY generated a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.23 will be seen this week. The rally above the previous week's high has made the previous week's low at 8.40 into the required/needed retest of the multi-week low at 8.28, suggesting that the correction is now over. There is open air above to 9.47 and if broken, then the 9.71 level is likely to be reached. If that level is broken, the 200-week MA, currently at 10.08, would be the target. Any drop below 8.40 would now be a negative. ZLAB reported earnings and they were much better than expected and the stock made a new 8-week high, erasing all the negatives seen of the principals of the company selling shares (the last of which was at 17.67). The stock generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the low weekly close at 18.68, which was made in February and from which the drop all the way down to 13.48. This does mean that the downtrend is over. Nonetheless, the bulls have more to do before the bulls take some control and a strong short-covering rally is seen. A weekly close above 21.10 would likely generate a rally up to the next weekly close resistance at 26.40. In using the daily closing chart though, the picture is quite clear. The 200-day MA is currently at 23.02 and there is daily close resistance of note as 22.49 and at 22.71. All of those levels need to be broken for a midterm uptrend to begin. To the downside there is important daily close support at 17.73 that should no longer get broken. There is also some daily close support at 20.16 and at 18.93. Which level is tested successfully would be short-term indicative. On a short-term bullish note, there is now a breakaway/runaway gap that offers strong chart support. Depending on what low is seen this week and then if the stock goes above this coming week's low the following week, it will give an upside objective based on the formation. At this time though, and for this week, it is likely to be a new support-building action with 23.04 as the possible high and 18.00 as the possible low.
|
1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.08. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.63. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.19. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.79. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 3.21. 6) BABA - Purchased at 72.54. Stop loss at 69.65. Stock closed on Friday at 80.04. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.30. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 32.20. 10) AMZN - Covered shorts at 186.51.Averaged short at 182.405. Loss on the trade of $871 (2 mentions). 11) DD - Shorted at 76.80. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 78.76. 12) GME - Purchased at 15.53. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.46. 13) XOM - Shorted at 118.09. Covered shorts at 118.44. Loss on the trade of $35 (per 100 shares).
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|