Issue #862
May 19, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls win! New all-time highs made and further upside likely to happen.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 40003
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5303
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 18546
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2095

The 3 main indexes hit new all-time highs this week and were confirmed on Friday through the weekly closing chart. All indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 40051, SPX above 5325, and NAZ above 18669 and RUT above 2112).

The inflation report did come in lower than anticipated and it gave the bulls the needed ammunition to accomplish this feat/goal and there is nothing fundamental at this time that could prevent this breakout from continuing. As such, continuation of the rally should be seen with the high probability that at some point (and perhaps this week or next) a retest of the weekly close breakout levels will occur. This means that a drop back down in the DOW to 39807, in the SPX down to 5254, and in the NASDAQ down to 18339, is likely to be seen.

It does need to be mentioned (and even have some still pivotal importance), that the RUT has maintained the "laggard" tag and it did not generate any kind of a breakout this past week. Only if the "entire" market heads higher can this breakout generate the kind of buying confidence it needs, in order to be sustained. The index was not even able to break the recent intraweek 2-year high at 2124, which is considered a double high with the high seen in April 2022 at 2138, which is still far away from the all-time high at 2458. As such, the RUT will be the index the traders key on "this week". On a daily closing basis, the 28-month high is at 2033 and the previous 40-month low is 2030, meaning that level is highly pivotal as it is from 2030 where the breakdown occurred that took the index all the way down to 1633. A confirmed daily close above 2133 would open the door for a rally up to at least 2258 and it would give tangible reasons for the rest of the index market to continue higher.

The only report due out this week of any importance is the Fed minutes from last month's meeting. Those come out on Wednesday at 2:00pm. It is unlikely there will be anything negative in the report as it is clear what the Fed is likely to do (begin to lower rates in July), given that inflation is continuing to either head lower or maintain itself at these lower levels.

I do expect that the market will continue higher but do expect some two-way action this week with some red days occurring as profit taking and the retest of the highs could be "in store" this week. Here are the daily close levels to watch this week, which if broken could change the picture. In the DOW the level is at 39807, in the SPX it is at 5254, in the NASDAQ it is at 18339 and in the RUT it is at 2053.


GOLD generated a new all-time high weekly close (above the previous one at $2401 - closed at $2419) but did not yet get above the all-time intraweek high at $2436 (high last week was $2427). Nonetheless, Gold closed on the high of the week and further upside above $2427 is expected to be seen and the $2436 level broken. The outlook for lower interest rates (though inflation remaining above the 2% target) is what is giving support to Gold. In addition, the high debt the U.S. presently has and the negative looking chart on the Dollar, is giving the bulls the support they need. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, a close below $2401 would generate a failure signal and a close below $2385 would generate a balloon-busting sell signal.

OIL generated a 2nd positive reversal week in a row, having made a new 9-week low and then closing green and above last week's high. Oil closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 80.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the fact that Oil generated a positive reversal week the week before and in spite of that, did generate a new 8-week low last week, does make this rally suspect, or at best, not dependable. Oil did close on Friday in an area of weekly close resistance between 79.83 and 79.97 (closed at 79.98) that is decent and clearly established, meaning that the weekly close this Friday is highly pivotal for the short-term. On a daily closing basis, a green close on Monday would help the bulls, especially if the close is above 80.63, which is a level of minor daily close support that when broken, brought the selling that took Oil down to 76.70. The market and Gold being on a bullish run does give support to the bulls but the Oil chart itself is definitely leaning in favor of the bears. The onus is on the shoulder of the bulls. If able to generate a confirmed daily close above 80.63, a rally to 83.58 could be seen. A red close on Monday would suggest 77.50 would be the downside target for the week. Those are the only 2 levels "in play" this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

With the new highs having been made last week, purchases are the only way to go at this time. The mention I have had for the past two weeks remains and at the same price. The chart suggests the desired entry point is still viable to be reached, though it is pretty far from where it closed on Friday. Nonetheless, at this time, it is still not a chaseable stock. I have added to other new purchase mentions and I want to also bring to your attention that one of the presently held stocks (LXRX) should also be considered adding to this week (see below in the held stock section, for details).

INTC Friday Closing Price - 31.83

INTC has fallen 42% in value over the past 5 months (from 50.76 to 29.85). The fall is attributed to some bad management decisions, declining interest in Mac computers and failure to meet Wall Street expectations. Having said that, the company is getting involved in AI and is trying to find ways to continue to be competitive. It is not likely that the company can be compared to other companies (such as NVDA) but the stock is at such a low price that "chart-wise", a bit of a recovery is likely to occur.

INTC reached a level of established support the previous week, between 29.00 and 30.63 (based on weekly closes) and from which a bounce occurred this past week. The stock closed at 29.85 a week ago last Friday and this Friday it closed at 31.83. The area of established support goes all the way back to 2014 (and visited on many occasions) and there is only a 5-month period of time (between August 2022 and January 2023) where it traded below that level. Having generated a bounce from that area last week and having closed near the high of the week (suggesting further upside above last week's high at 32.26 will be seen this week), likely means that area will hold up again.

The analysts following INTC do have the average upside objective being the $38 area. The chart supports a rally to that area as being also likely to happen. There is quite a bit of established intraweek resistance between 37.11 and 37.19 and pivotal at 40.07, and the area includes the 200-day MA, currently at 39.64.

INTC reported earnings almost 4 weeks ago and the report caused the stock to gap down from 34.50 to 32.22. This was the 3rd gap down over the past few months and as such, likely to get closed. Closure of the gap then offers open air above to 37.11, meaning that the gap is the only resistance the bulls need to break.

INTC gapped up on Thursday and given there was no news to support the gap, the gap down at 31.40 is likely to be closed. Below that level, there is no support until the 30.02 level is reached. The recent intraweek low is 29.73. As such, the desired entry point into the trade will be 31.40 (or lower) and using a stop loss at 29.63. With an upside objective of as much as 39.64, it offers a risk/reward ratio of 4.6-1. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

PRAA Friday Closing Price - 24.96

PRAA is a debt buyer and debt collection company that is followed by 9 analysts that offer a median target of $43. The company reported earnings 2 weeks ago and they were much better than expected. Growth for this company is rated as "high".

PRAA made a new 12-week intraweek high after the earnings report but was not able to confirm that break as it immediately sold off to close red that day. Once again, the bulls tried to rally the stock last week but did not get above the previous week's and then turned to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 24.69 will be seen this week.

Having said that, PRAA had been on a 16-month downtrend that took the stock from a high of 51.00 (seen in Jan22) to a low of 11.85 (seen in Oct23). Since then, the downtrend officially ended in December when a previous weekly high close at 23.48 was broken. Since then, that breakout has been tested successfully on 2 occasions (with weekly closes at 22.90 and 22.84) and since then, those two successful retests have now been tested successful on 1 occasion With a low weekly close at 24.11. If the stock closes green this coming Friday, a 2nd successful retest of those previous successful retests will occur.

Simply stated, PRAA now has built a good chart support base and with the earnings report and future outlook being positive, it is now highly likely that an uptrend up to the 200-week MA, currently at 34.77, will begin.

Purchases of PRAA around the 24.25 level and using a stop loss at 21.69 and having 34.77 as the objective offers a 5.2-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

SNOW Friday Closing Price - 161.86

SNOW is a cloud-based data platform that is using AI to increase its efficiency. With AI being a "hot" industry for the future and this company being oversold and likely undervalued, it is one to purchase now. The stock is presently oversold and according to several sources, strongly undervalued. This stock fell in value 40% between February and April (from $237 to $144) but has now started to recover. On Thursday, one of the rating companies (BNP) raised its price target to $200.

SNOW made an all-time high in November 2021 at $405 and then proceeded to fall precipitously to $110 over the following 8 months. Since then, that low has now been tested successfully on 4 occasions with drops down to 119.27. to 128.56, to 138.40 and to 145.55 just 4 weeks ago. This action has been successful in building a very solid bottom that is a base for a strong breakout to occur sometime over the next 3-6 months. Having said that, this mention today is not about a breakout occurring at this time but about a rally to test one of the highs made over the past two years, which are either at 193.94 or at 205.66. I would expect a 5th retest of the lows to occur thereafter, followed by a breakout above the 2-year high at 237.72 and a rally up to at least the $330 level. This kind of chart action over the past 2 years, followed by being in a very "hot" industry for the future, as well as this being a strong company in that industry, suggests this is a stock to be traded consistently over the next year or two.

SNOW made a new 23-week low 6 weeks ago and that low does require a retest of it. With the stock reporting earnings on May 22nd (Wednesday afternoon), it is possible that the stock will drop down to the desired entry point this week. At this time (before the earnings report) and at this price, this stock is not a good purchase unless the stock reaches the desired entry point before the report. After the report, I may change the desired entry point, but I would still be a buyer even if the report is negative, if the desired entry point is reached after the report comes out.

The desired entry point into SNOW will be somewhere between 150.62 and 153.00. The stop loss point will be at 146.65 and the objective will be 193.94, meaning a risk of no more than $635 for a profit potential of at least $4394 (per 100 shares). It is a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

<
Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

BABA generated a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 90.46 will be seen this week. This move up of 14% from the previous week's low, totally erased the negative aspects of the worse than expected earnings that came out on Tuesday and that initially generated an 8% drop in price. There is now open air to 94.29 and then nothing until 97.01, neither of which are strong or pivotal resistances. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily closing chart, there is a fair amount of daily close resistance between 89.39 and 90.68 that is minor in nature but could hold the stock down for a few days. Daily close support (minor as well) is now found at 83.35. The bulls though, presently have the momentum so everything up to the $94-$97 level is possible.

GCI generated a major breakout this past week, having closed above the 24-month high weekly close at 3.43 and also closing above the 200-week MA, currently at 3.53, which had not been broken to the upside since July 2018 (stock closed on Friday at 3.72). There is now open air up to the 4.46 level (on a weekly closing basis). That resistance is from a previous low weekly close and not as strong as a previous high weekly close resistance, which is not found until 5.61 (minor) and then at the $6 level which is of importance. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance of any consequence until the 5.49-5.66 level is reached. To the downside, there is no intraweek support until 3.10 is reached but on a daily closing basis, the stock should not generate a confirmed daily close below 3.53 or a failure signal will be given. The fundamental and chart picture both suggest higher prices are to come.

JD made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.69 will be seen this week. The stock did generate another failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above a previous low weekly close of importance at 33.10. From this weekly close break, the stock fell over 50% in value down to 20.48, meaning that this failure signal is of indicative importance. There is now open air above to the 39.41 level. The next pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 41.95, which at this time is not likely to be broken. Based on the breakout, intraweek support will now be found at 33.63 and pivotal at 31.57 (on a daily closing basis, at 32.10). The chart suggests that the stock will now trade between 33.50 and 40.00 for the next 4 weeks.

LXRX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek high at 2.04 and then turning down to close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.71 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this is not necessarily a negative given that the recent 14-week low at 1.48 needs/requires a successful retest of it before the bulls step back in to start re-buying the stock with some confidence. A move below 1.71 without breaking 1.48, followed by a rally the week after and above this coming week's high, will serve as a retest of that low. It is also important to watch what the RUT index does this week, because if the index is able to generate a breakout (like the other indexes did this past week), it will give the stock some strong and new ammunition to recover some (or all) of the 60% in value that has been lost the past 8 weeks. If this scenario does occur, a rally back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 2.91, will probably be seen over the next 4-6 weeks. The fundamental picture supports this outlook, meaning that consideration should be given to adding positions this week on a drop below 1.71 and using a stop loss at 1.43, meaning a risk of $28 for a profit potential of $120 (per 100 shares), which is a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

SNDL made a new 18-week intraweek and weekly closing high but then fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.28 will be seen this week. This does suggest that for now (and until new news comes out), the stock may have found a temporary high at 2.93 (last week's high). The stock has had nigher highs and higher lows for the past 4 weeks and is probably in the process of retesting the weekly close breakout level at 2.15, before thoughts of any further upside occur. With no support level built on the way up since the low at 1.75 was made in April, the bulls do need a higher support level built. Decent and not likely breakable at this point intraweek support is found at 1.96. Nonetheless, there is daily close support at 2.19 that should hold up. Chart suggests that for this coming week, that level will be daily close support and the 2.50 level will be daily close resistance.

VWDRY generated a new 8-week intraweek high and a new 7-week weekly closing high but the bulls failed to break the established intraweek resistance at 9.71, having made a high at 9.69 and then closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.19 will be seen. The failure to break that resistance does suggest that the stock needs some help from the RUT small cap index to go further up (at this time). By the same token, the recent 22-week low at 8.28 has not yet had a successful retest of it, meaning that this move down is likely to be "just that". Any drop below last week's low will put the stock is a position to generate the needed/required retest, which if and when it happens, the bulls would then have enough ammunition to generate a new mini breakout above 9.71. There is intraweek support between 9.01 and 9.04 that should be seen this week but if not broken, would be a decent positive for the bulls. Given that the RUT is likely to generate the needed breakout this week, the probabilities do favor the stock getting down to 9.01 and then turning around and closing green again next Friday.

ZLAB bulls were not able to take advantage of the rally in the Chinese index and generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-week intraweek high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.31 will be seen this week. Having said that, there was no negative news on the company and the company did report better than expected earnings the previous week, suggesting that fundamentally, this move down is not supported. This suggests that this move down is all about the bulls building a new support level (after the new all-time low was made 6-week ago, which has not yet received the needed/required retest of it). A drop below this past week's low will open the door for such a retest to occur and that is likely what is happening. Intraweek support is found at 18.72 and at 17.68, the first of which is a probability with the second being just a possibility. A break below the latter and closure of the runaway gap down at 17.06 would negate what the bulls have accomplished recently. The stock did gap down on Thursday from 20.75 to 20.39 and the gap was not supported with news, meaning that it is a magnet for closure. As such, the chart suggests that both 18.72 and 20.75 will be seen this week, and if the latter is seen after the former is reached, it will suggest that further upside is to come over the next few weeks.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.40.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.25.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.77.

5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 3.73.

6) BABA - Purchased at 78.20 Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 77.62. Stock closed on Friday at 88.54.

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.46.

9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 35.27.

10) DD - Covered shorts at 79.91. Shorted at 76.80. Loss on the trade of $311 (per 100 shares).

11) GME - Liquidated at 32.30. Purchased at 15.53. Profit on the trade of $1677 (per 100 shares).


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Feb 04, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 11, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 18, 2024 Newsletter

View Feb 25, 2023 Newsletter

View Mar 03, 2024 Newsletter

View Mar 10, 2024 Newsletter

View Mar 17, 2024 Newsletter

View Mar 24, 2024 Newsletter

View Mar 31, 2024 Newsletter

View Apr 07, 2024 Newsletter

View Apr 14, 2024 Newsletter

View Apr 21, 2024 Newsletter

View Apr 28, 2024 Newsletter

View May 05, 2024 Newsletter

View May 12, 2024 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.