Issue #865
June 9, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Positive News and Indexes generally moving higher!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 38798 This past week turned out to be dichotomy week with the NASDAQ leading the way with a 2.5% appreciation in price, the SPX with a 1.3% appreciation in price, the DOW moving up only .4% and the RUT going down 2.2% in price. The ISM index and the JOBS reports both came out better than expected and that gave the bulls the ammunition they needed to go higher. Both the NAZ and the SPX made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs and the DOW did get above last week's high and all three closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 39,105, SPX at 5376, and NAZ at 19113) will be seen this week. The RUT did do the exact opposite as it had a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then going below the previous week's low and closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2017 will be seen this week. The dichotomy seen (favoring the SPX and the NAZ) is an overall positive but the market continues to be dependent on the Tech sector continuing higher. NVDA led the way, having made another new intraweek and weekly closing high (3rd in a row) and closing 9.3% higher than the previous week's close. As long as the Tech sector (especially AI) continues higher, the market will continue higher as well. Nonetheless, the fact that the small cap index (RUT) actually went down and generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below a previous high weekly close at 2030 (closed at 2026), does suggest that the traders are expecting a slow down in the economy to become apparent as we go forward. Having said all of that, the market is still overall dependent on inflation and what the Fed does with interest rates. This coming week, the CPI number and the Fed Rate decision for June will be coming out on Wednesday. Inflation is once again expected to come in lower (expected number for CPI is .1% with last month's being .3%) and the Fed is not expected to make any changes this month. Evidently, if the inflation number is higher-than-expected, it will be a negative to the market. Though the Fed is not expected to do anything this month, the CPI number will likely have some effect on whether the Fed will start cutting in July, September or wait until December. At present, expectations are they will begin cutting in September but the expectations of that could change this week, in one direction or the other. As such, this week is likely to be short-term indicative, with short-term meaning, the next 4 weeks. All indexes closed out on Friday near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week on Monday will be to the downside. The DOW is showing 6 days in a row of higher highs and higher lows than than the previous day and as such, the recent 4-week low at 38,000 has not yet received the needed/required retest of it. The index shows intraweek support between 38,457 and 38,483 and that is likely to be the downside target for the first 2 days of the week (meaning a drop of some 300 points from Friday's close). The SPX is likely to test the previous all-time daily closing high at 5321 (meaning a drop of some 26 points from Friday's close. The NASDAQ is likely to do the same as the SPX and drop down to its previous all-time daily closing high at 18,869 (about 130 points lower) and the RUT is likely to drop down to the next daily close support level at 1981 (some 45 points below Friday's close). Everything this week is going to be dependent on the reports on Wednesday. Evidently if the indexes generate closes below the levels given above after those reports come out, the chart outlook will change. For now, it is expected that more upside will be seen for the rest of the month and for at least the first week of July. HSI had a very uneventful inside week with a green weekly close. Nonetheless, it did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18,258 will be seen this week (index closed at 18,366 on Friday). Given that the previous week, the index made a new 4-week low, it is likely this week's drop could be the retest of that correction low, which if successful, would bring new buying interest and continuation of the short-term uptrend that started in January. Having said that, the bulls were not able to accomplish any kind of a positive statement as there was indicative weekly close resistance at 18,382 that was not broken, meaning that there could still be further downside to come with the next weekly close support being found at 17950 (which is somewhat minor in nature). Overall, there are two "daily close" levels to key on. To the upside, the 18,844 level and to the downside the 17,623 level. A close above or below those levels would be indicative. For now, it seems the Chinese index is not yet ready to make any kind of statement. In looking at the fundamental picture for 2024 for China, it does seem to be a positive one, meaning the probabilities do favor more upside overall. For this week, their inflation report is due out on Tuesday and it is expected to come out at -.2%). If it comes in lower it will help the market and if it comes in higher, it will likely generate a bit more selling interest.
GOLD(Aug 24 chart) generated a key negative reversal on the intraweek chart, having made a new 10-day intraweek high and then making a new 2-month intraweek low. Gold closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2304 will be seen this week. A sell signal was generated on the daily closing chart, with the stock closing below the most recent low daily close at $2324. The reason given for the drop was that tensions are easing in the middle east (not a very good reason). Intraweek support is found at $2285, which if broken, offers open air down to the $2225 where the next (but minor) support is found. To negate this break, a confirmed daily close above $2324 is required. OIL generated a new 17-week intraweek and weekly closing low but did bounce up to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of going above last week's high at 77.52 than going below last week's low at 72.48. Oil did get down near the next daily close support level at 72.25, having closed on Tuesday at 73.25 and then following that up with 3 closes above that level the rest of the week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to even generate a close on Friday above 75.57 (closed at 75.53), where a minor previous daily close resistance is found. That failure keep the bears with the edge for this week. The two levels to watch this week on a daily closing basis are 72.25 and 76.87, a close below the former will further weaken the chart, while a close above the latter will remove the edge away from the bears.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
Once again, I have no new mentions due to the fact that on Wednesday there are two fundamental reports that can be pivotal. Nonetheless and after the report, I might have some new mentions, which will be given on the message board or in next week's newsletter.
|
Updates
|
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
|
|
BABA generated an uneventful inside week with a green weekly close, but then only by $.07 cents. The close was in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.22 is more likely than a rally above last week's high at 80.06. On a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal support is found at 77.90 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 80.01. The 200-day MA is currently at 78.24 and that line was straddled all week, with daily closes at 77.90. at 78.45, at 79.83, at 80.01 and on Friday at 78.41. The company did receive positive reviews on their new model based on AI that was unveiled on Friday. That news should bring in continued support and higher prices from here on out. ENG made a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.30 will be seen this week. There was no news to cause the stock to break the sideways trend seen the past 14 week, meaning that the likely reason the stock dropped was the weakness in the RUT index and hitting all the stops that evidently were placed below the 4-month low at 1.55. All of the big drop occurred on Friday, meaning that it is highly likely that it was a stop-loss break that caused the drop. Intraweek support is found at 1.21 and pivotal at 1.01. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 1.20. With this drop being all chart-oriented, the probabilities favor the stock dropping down to 1.20 and then generating a recovery rally back up to 1.63, which is were daily close resistance is found. GCI made a new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing high but did see some profit taking coming in when it got up to the 4.28 level on Wednesday, which was then followed with 2 red daily closes in a row and a 6.6% correction from that high, to close on Friday at 4.00. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 3.77 than above last week's high at 4.28. The stock has seen 6-weeks in a row of higher lows, meaning that some type of correction to build a new support level is likely to be happening. The 200-week MA is currently at 3.36 and a drop down to that line is a possibility. Nonetheless, the breakout occurred from a daily close high at 3.52, meaning that level is not likely to get broken (on a daily closing basis). Having said that and after the stock has basically more than doubled in price in the last 3 months, it is evident the bulls are in control and that could mean that a drop down to those levels will not happen. There is some daily close support at 3.71/3.72 that is likely to be seen this week but that could hold up. As it is, the stock remains with open air above up to the 4.55 level (based on a daily close), and it is more likely that level will be reached first, before a good correction occurs. If that does happen though, profit taking should be considered as a drop back down to 3.50 would then be a high probability. INTC generated another mostly uneventful inside week, given that it neither went above or below the previous week's trading range and ended up closing just $.11 cents lower than the previous week's close. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 31.07 will be seen this week. Fundamentally speaking, it is difficult to see the stock go lower given that the AI industry is strong and growing. What has been keeping the stock from moving higher (while other AI companies are presently moving higher) is that the company needs to invest a large amount of money into getting itself primed for using and offering AI technology. It is that huge expense that is keeping traders from buying INTC aggressively at this time. Nonetheless, the future is bright for the stock. The stock does show strong and repetitive (over the past 2 years) support around the $30 level, meaning it would take some tangible negative news to break this level. A daily close below 29.00 would be a short-term indicative break. On the other side of the coin, a daily close above 32.10 would likely bring a rally up to the $38-$39 level. With NVDA strong at this time, the probabilities favor the bulls. JD generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.24 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls do still have the overall edge, given that the stock is still trading above the 200-day MA, currently at 27.55, but more importantly, trading above a very important and pivotal daily and weekly close support at 28.89. On the other side of the coin and with the stock closing on Friday just $.35 cents above that level, the bulls have to start doing something this week (or at the latest next week) to move the stock up. With the Chinese index also near support that is expected to hold and move higher, the same outlook is seen for the stock. A daily close above 30.59 would generate an indicative buy signal. It is clear right now, with 28.89 and 30.59 being the two levels to watch closely (on a daily closing basis) for now. LXRX generated a mostly uneventful week, having closed just $.05 cents above the previous week's close but it did have A positive attached as it confirmed the successful retest of the correction low, which in turn should give the bulls some new ammunition. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.70 will be seen this week, which could end up being yet another (the 2nd) retest of the low. Having said that, the parameters of the intraweek support and resistance levels are now very clear, with 1.48 being a breakdown and 2.04 being a breakout. With the stock closing at 1.75 on Friday, it is at the half point of both levels, meaning some catalyst is needed for either to happen. In looking at the monthly chart, the probabilities favor the upside with a minimum rise to 2.89, to be seen either this month or next. PRAA made another new 27-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.76 will be seen this week. The chart is now clearly suggesting that the stock is likely heading down to the 17.50 level where some good intraweek support is found. I have a hard stop at 19.65 that will likely be triggered this week. If that does happen, I will be rebuying the stock around the 17.50 level. There has been no new fundamental news but the outlook for the future remains bright with the rating companies having a $37.50 target by the end of the year. Intraweek resistance is found at 20.91 and likely pivotal at 22.60. Below 19.70 there is no support until 18.16 is reached. SNDL generated a failure signal against the bulls on Friday, having closed below the weekly close breakout level at 2.15 (closed at 2.04). This does suggest that the bulls now need some positive fundamental news to restart the uptrend. By the same token, there is good established intraweek support at 1.95 that should not be broken, suggesting that for now, the stock is likely to trade sideways between 1.95 and 2.67 until some new news comes out. Pivotal support level is now found at the 1.70/1.75 level. SNOW made another new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 128.41 will be seen this week. The stock did break an important intraweek support at 128.76 and then confirmed the break with a break of the weekly close support at 131.46 (closed at 131.21). Then again, both breaks were by a minimal amount and if not confirmed this week with a lower intraweek and weekly close next Friday, these mini breaks will be seen as successful retests of the support level. The reason for the weakness seen this week is that several rating companies did lower their upside projections. Nonetheless, the one that lowered it the most (Jeffries), still has a $160 upside projection. There is still some very good intraweek support at 122.77 and strong but pivotal at 119.27. (126.26 and 121.56 on a daily closing basis). To the upside, there is some minor but likely short-term pivotal intraweek resistance at 139.04 and then a bit more indicative at 140.84 (but on a daily closing basis). Overall, most companies maintained their upside targets for the stock at $210 and with the AI market being strong, the weakness being seen now is likely temporary. VWDRY generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 22-week intraweek high but then going below the previous week's low, closing red, and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.97 will be seen this week. The stock fell 8.8% from the high of the week but there was no news to support the weakness, suggesting that there were 2 things that caused the fall to happen 1) getting near the 200-week MA, currently at 10.09 (high for the week was 9.83) and not having any new positive news to stimulate a break of the line and 2) weakness in the small cap index (RUT). Nonetheless, the fundamental news continues to be positive and no pivotal or important support levels were broken. Downside target for this week is the 8.61 level, with a small possibility of dropping down to 8.53. Nonetheless, that support area should hold up. To the upside and likely for the next 2-3 weeks, the 9.70 level is likely to be resistance that will not be broken. This suggests the stock will trade between 8.63 and 9.71 for now. ZLAB did generate a somewhat surprising up week, given that the Chinese index and other Chinese held stocks showed weakness. This does suggest that finally there is some valid and likely persisting buying interest coming in. The stock generated a green week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.06 will be seen this week. The stock closed just $.08 cents below a short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at 20.08 (closed at 20.00). In looking at the daily chart, no resistance was broken but the daily close at 17.78 that occurred the previous Friday has now become a confirmed retest of a previously established an important support at 17.73. In addition, the chart now shows a clear bullish inverted Head and Shoulders formation with the right shoulder being at 17.73, the head being at 13.72 and the right shoulder being at 17.78. The neckline is at 21.55, which if broken, would generate an upside target of 29.38. All of this is based on the daily closing chart. The 200-day MA is currently at 22.39 and the left neckline is at 22.49, which both are resistance levels of note. If all of these resistance levels are broken (now looking like a good probability given the fundamental outlook for the company), the 29.38 objective will become real and viable and to be fulfilled within 4 weeks after the breakout. Evidently, the 17.73 level (on a daily closing basis), is now pivotal support. In looking at the chart and for this coming week, a drop down to 18.91 is likely to occur and can be used to buy or add positions.
|
1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.00. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.35. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.00. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.553 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.75. 5) GCI - Averaged long at 2.14 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 1.85. Stock closed on Friday at 4.00. 6) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 77.62. Stock closed on Friday at 78.41. 8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.04. 9) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 29.33. 10) PRAA - Averaged long at 23.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.29. 11) INTC - Purchased at 30.34. Stock closed on Friday at 30.74. 12) SNOW - Purchased at 129.55. Averaged long at 137.343 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 131.21
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|