Issue #870
July 21, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears got the edge on Friday. Further downside likely. Nonetheless, Biden quit the 2024 presidential race, bringing a new catalyst to the market. Outlook unclear!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 40287 The action this past week was indicative of a top to the 15-year uptrend having been found. The DOW spiked up 1376 points above the previous week's close but then dropped 1091 points into the close on Friday, meaning that it has the look of a spike up exhaustion rally, which is normally seen at the end of an uptrend. In addition, the dichotomy between the DOW and the NAZ continued to reverse with the DOW closing .4% higher and the NAZ closing 4% lower. The SPX generated a "key" reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 5669 and then closing below the previous week's low. Such action is also a sign of a top to the uptrend being found. The NASDAQ fell 1106 points (a 4% drop) and came within 7 points of generating a break of the pivotal intraweek support 19472 (last week's low was 19479). Nonetheless, the index closed just 43 points above the low of the week, suggesting that pivotal intraweek support will be broken this week. If that does occur, there is no established support below for another 1283 points. The RUT also gave signs that a top to this recent rally has been found as it moved up 130 points (a rally of 5.8% above the previous week's high) and then fell 85 points from the high, to close near the low of the week. All of the above are highly indicative actions that clearly suggest that at least until the election in November, no further upside (above the recent highs) will be seen. This means that either a correction of consequence has begun or a top to the uptrend has been found. Across the board, all indexes closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 40,136, SPX at 5497, NAZ at 19479 and RUT at 2160) will be seen this week. The NASDAQ has a pivotal intraweek support levels close by below at 19472, which if broken will trigger automatic selling by computers and algorithms. The SPX has 2 levels close by below on the daily closing chart that are indicative. A close below 5487 would generate a failure signal against the bulls and a close below 5464 would generate a sell signal and a break that would likely cause the index to drop an additional 142 points. In the DOW, a daily close 284 points lower (below 40003) would generate a failure signal against the bulls. A daily close below 2177 in the RUT, would generate a failure signal against the bulls. As you can see, all indexes have levels of indicative importance this week. As far as earnings and economic reports for this week, GOOGL and TSLA report Tuesday afternoon after the close. It is doubtful that either of these reports will be in any way catalytic. NFLX reported on Thursday afternoon and it was mostly as expected. Nonetheless, the stock dropped 1.6% in value. As far as economic reports, on Thursday, the new Advanced GDP report is due out and on Friday, the PCE inflation reports are due out and they both have the capacity to be somewhat catalytic. The probabilities do favor the bears this week with further downside of consequence "possibly" occurring. Nonetheless, the traders might hold off on aggressive selling until July31-August1 when the Fed makes its rate decision and AAPL and AMZN report. As far as any positive things to look for on the charts that might negate this outlook. A green daily close on Monday in the DOW would mean that the breakout of the up channel line will have been tested successfully, suggesting that the DOW could at least test the recent high, if not break it. The RUT staying above (on a daily closing basis) the 2177 level, meaning that a a retest of the 2276 high would likely be seen or even further upside to come. The SPX not closing below 5487 and generating a green daily close, suggesting a retest of the recent high is to come. The NASDAQ not generating a daily close below 19474 and generating a daily close above 19908, meaning that the break of support is likely to be postponed for now. These are the things the bulls need, in order to prevent further downside of consequence occurring this week. It is certainly a short-term pivotal week. Breaking news - Sunday 3:00pm. Biden removed himself from the 2024 election and that is likely to be a catalyst. The question is "in favor of the bulls or the bears?". Then again, the new nominee for the party for November will not be set for another 4 weeks, meaning that the uncertainty might keep either side from accomplishing a consequential gain or consequential loss. HSI generated a negative week after the GDP report came in lower than expected (4.7% versus expected 5%). As such, the bulls failed to follow through to the upside and a gap down on Monday was generated, causing the index to drop down to the previous 3-month intraweek low at 17376, generating a failure signal against the bulls, and generating a new sell signal that is likely to cause further downside to occur. The index closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 17376 is expected to be seen this week. On a slightly positive note, the 17376 low seen in April was not broken and if a green close above 17471 occurs on Monday, a double low on the intraweek chart will occur, as well as a failure signal against the bears occur as well. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor that happening and in looking at the weekly intraweek chart, the next intraweek support area of consequence is between 16879 and 17094, and considering that the original daily and weekly close breakout out levels from the downtrend are at 17139 and 17947, it does suggest that not much more downside is to be seen. If that area holds up (likely) the gap down seen on Monday from 17946 would become a magnet. As such, it does seem that for the next 2 weeks, the index is likely to trade between 17000 and 18000, meaning more upside than downside is likely to occur.
GOLD(Aug 24 chart) made a new all-time intraweek high at $2488 but then proceeded to drop $93 into Friday's red weekly close, meaning that no new all-time weekly closing high occurred. In fact, the red weekly close on Friday, means that the previous week's close at $2020 has now become a successful retest of the all-time weekly closing high at $2024. Gold closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at $2395 is expected to be seen this week. In looking at the daily closing chart, Gold did make a new all-time daily closing high at $2468 (above the previous one at $2448) but then negated the breakout with Friday's close at $2404. This successful retest on the weekly chart and failure on the daily chart is meaningful and in both cases it means that the recent low daily and weekly closes (at $2301 ad $2313) are now downside objectives to be seen within the next few weeks. A daily close above $2448 would ameliorate the negative outlook, but it is doubtful that it can happen. For this week, any daily close below $2397 will likely generate a drop down to the $2350-$2360 level. OIL generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday below the recent weekly close breakout at 80.06 and generated a failure signal "and" a sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below 80.06 and then below 79.71 (closed at 78.64). The next intraweek support is found at 77.72. On the daily chart, there are 3 support levels starting at 76.15 and up to 76.89. If the former breaks, there is no support below until 72.48. A daily close above 80.06 would begin to negate the negativity seen in the action this week. At this time and using the monthly close chart that ends in 6 trading days, it does seem that a close around 73.95 will be seen then.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The probabilities favor the bears so the only thing that should be given serious consideration right now are short positions. Having said that, it has been difficult to find stocks today that can be shorted and that offer a good risk/reward ratios, given that the stocks that are overbought and can be considered for a sell, already dropped substantially on Friday. Nonetheless, I did find one stock that does offer a decent entry point and good and doable downside objective and that offers a good risk/reward ratio.
In addition, I would consider adding shorts to AAPL if last week's low at 222.27 is broken and use a stop loss on this trade at 226.90. The downside objective for the short term is the 210.00 area.
AXP Friday Closing Price - 242.54
AXP is the best or one of the best credit card companies in the industry. As such and during the recent rally in the market (and more so being a member of the DOW), over the past 9 months, it has rallied from 140.91 to 253.73 and during the past 6 weeks, from 220.74 to that same high (13% in 6 weeks). Like the DOW, the stock made a new all-time intraweek high this past week but then dropped $13.08 on Thursday and Friday, to close below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 242.82 (closed at 242.38).
AXP gapped down on Friday after the earnings report came out. The earnings came in a bit higher than expected but sales were a big miss and the stock opened 4% lower than Thursday's low. The stock did rally all day and closed on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside, in an attempt to close the gap as an unopened gap will give the bears additional ammunition, above what the earnings report offered and apart from what the drop in the DOW offered. Closure of the gap is going to be difficult. First of all, the previous all-time intraweek high is at 244.41 (on a daily closing basis at 243.08 on a daily closing basis). Nonetheless, if the bulls are able to get above that level, the 200 10-minute MA is currently at 246.15 and the stock had been very faithful to that line and to the bulls (staying above it for the past 15 trading days) but now that it has been broken, it should be equally faithful to the bears and not get above it, especially when the news is bad and the index is under sell pressure. This would mean that the gap will not be closed and that will give additional ammunition to the bears.
To the downside, AXP shows no established support until 229.13 is reached. Nonetheless, that support is only found on the daily chart and is considered somewhat minor. The level of support that is considered decent is found at 220.74, which is an intraweek support found on both the weekly and monthly charts. Having said that, if the gap is not closed, that level will be targeted as a temporary objective but not support that will likely hold up overall. On the weekly intraweek chart, there is one further area of support at 214.51 but if that level is broken, there is total open air below to the previous all-time weekly closing high at 194.88. If the market has found a top, that would be the objective, to be reached over the next 3-6 months.
I don't expect the gap to be closed, meaning that I will use the gap as the stop loss point. As such, the desired entry point will be around the 246.00 area, using a stop loss at 247.76 and having a 194.88 objective, meaning that it is a 29-1 risk/reward ratio. Given that it is an exorbitant risk/reward ratio, I would make the stop loss mental and if the gap is closed, I would not expect the all-time high daily close at 249.96 to be broken, so I would use a "hard" stop at 250.35. Such a stop loss would still offer an 11-1 risk/reward ratio. If the gap is not closed but the short sale is instituted, I would add positions if 233.53 is broken. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 237.22 and then going below the previous week's low and closing red. The reversal came very close to being a "key" reversal, having gone below the previous week's low but the bulls being able to close slightly above the previous week's low (low the previous week was 23.35 and it closed at 224.33). The stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 222.27 is expected to be seen this week. The action does seem to suggest that an exhaustion top has been found, given that the stock went up 3% above the previous week's close and there was no news to support such a strong rally at the beginning of the week. The stock did gap down on Wednesday and if another gap happens on Monday, a breakaway/runaway gap formation may have been built, which will give the bears added ammunition. As it is right now, there is open air below on the intraweek chart until 210.30 is reached, meaning that if it does go below last week's low, a drop down to that level will likely be seen. To the upside, the gap up at 232.33 is a magnet but there intraweek resistance at 233.08 that is not likely to be broken, meaning that is probability the most the bulls could achieve even if a recovery rally occurs. BABA did not follow through to the upside and ended up having an inside week and a red weekly close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.18 will be seen this week. The weakness seen was likely due to the weakness in the Chinese index and that index is likely to go lower this week. Nonetheless, the downside objective of the index is limited, meaning the downside may be seen early in the week, followed by recovery the rest of the week. The stock did close on Friday below the 200-day MA, currently at 76.49. That is a short-term negative as the bulls had established themselves above the line for the past 7 days. There is pivotal intraweek support at 72.95 that should not be broken unless the bears have seized back control. Once again, pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 78.34. A break of that level will give the bulls back the edge. The chart suggests that on a daily closing basis, it will trade between 73.35 and 76.39 for the first couple of days of the week and then based on what the Chinese index does, a breakout or a breakdown will occur, with the former being the probability. DSGR rallied 9% above the previous week's close but then fell back to close still green but in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.01. The stock closed at a minor to decent weekly close resistance at 31.95 (closed at 31.88) and if a red weekly close occurs on Friday, and the indexes go lower (as it seems they will), the bulls may be at risk of losing the edge they have had the past 2 weeks. One very important thing to watch is the 31.11 and 31.17 levels (on an intraweek and on a daily closing basis. The former is the now established intraweek support (given the breakout seen last week) and the latter is the 200-day MA. If the bulls still have strength, those two levels will hold up. If they have lost the edge, the 29.66 level will become the short-term downside target and the stock will be at risk of even breaking down from there. I will be considering liquidating the positions if the stock breaks those two support levels at 31.11 and 31.17. INTC generated negative reversal week that also came close to being a key reversal week, having almost closed below the previous week's low at 32.82 (closed at 32.96). The stock fell 11.3% from the high of the week and what is even more important is that the high of the week was exactly where decent intraweek resistance is found (intraweek resistance is found at 37.19 and the high of the week was 37.16). The stock has gone up to that resistance on 2 occasions and then dropped down to 31.38 the first time and down to 32.18 the second time. Three weeks ago, the stock generated a weekly gap up based on the strength in chip stocks at that time. Nonetheless, that chip stock strength has evaporated (as seen by the drop in the NASDAQ) and as such closure of the gap (at 32.34) is likely to occur. It is an important week for the stock as the recent breakout occurred when the stock generated a daily close above 32.10. As such, a daily close below 32.10 will be reason to consider liquidating the long positions. If not broken, the bulls might get enough ammunition to recover and even go up to the $40 level over the next few weeks. JD did not follow through to the upside and ended up going below last week's low and closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.07 will be seen this week. The action seen was likely due to the Chinese index heading lower. Having said that, the stock has basically traded sideways between 25.57 and 29.07 for the past 4 weeks, in spite of the fact that the Chinese index has gone mostly down during this period of time. This likely means that "more of the same" will occur this week. Evidently, a break below 25.57 would further weaken the chart and a drop to 24.66 of even down to 24.06 could be seen. Anything below 24.06 though, would change the chart to the bears being in control. To the upside, any daily close above 27.00 would give the bulls back the short-term edge. With the Chinese index likely to find support that will hold up this week, the possibilities do slightly favor the stock not breaking 25.57 and closing green on Friday. LXRX rallied 28% over the past two weeks but even though it generated a green weekly close on Friday, the stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.95 will be seen this week. Evidently the selling seen at the end of the week had to do more with the small cap index doing the same by going substantially higher but then giving up most of the gains. Having said that, the stock remains in breakout mode with the daily close breakout level being at 1.94. A confirmed daily close below that level will erase the recent gains but any green daily close this week (without the 1.94 level being broken) would suggest this move down was simply a normal retest of the breakout level. Any daily close above 2.09 would be a positive and any daily close above 2.23 would mean the uptrend continues. PYPL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.75 will be seen this week. Three weeks ago, the stock made a new 20-week intraweek low at 57.03 and that low has not yet been tested successfully, meaning that this move down this past week could end up being that required/needed retest of that low or continuation of the downtrend. Given the fundamentals of the company and the extreme low price that the stock is trading at right now, the former is the probable scenario. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 58.20 and at 57.77 and then once more at 57.44. The former should be reached but if not broken, it would be a positive sign. Reaching the other two would be somewhat short-term negative but not chart breaking. Any break above 60.93 would suggest the bulls have the edge back. SNDL, like most stocks, generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.05 will be seen this week. This was not all that surprising as it did close the previously established weekly close resistance at 2.20 and with the overall market heading lower, the red close was not a surprise. The overall chart outlook remains positive and will continue to do so as long as it stays above the 1.82 level on a weekly closing basis. A daily close above 2.20 would give the bulls the edge again. SNOW generated another red weekly close and again closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 128.87 will be seen this week. This move down was required and needed as the stock had made an 18-month intraweek and weekly closing low 5 weeks ago and a retest of that low was expected. Nonetheless, the stock "technically" generated a failure signal against the bulls on the daily chart, having closed below the daily close breakout at 130.67 that caused the rally up to 143.72 to occur (closed at 129.85). This of course was due to the overall weakness the stock has shown this year and the weakness shown this past week for Tech Stocks. The bulls did generate a positive reversal day on Friday and the first course of business on Monday should be to the upside (above Friday's high at 130.88) and if the bulls are able to close above 130.67, the technical break will be negated and new buying will likely be seen. There is established intraweek support at 128.56 and if that is seen and the stock turns around from that and then closes above 130.67, two things will have been accomplished, which is going below last week's low and the negating the failure signal. Any daily close above 136.21 would give the bulls a small edge. VWDRY made a new 9-month intraweek low but then turned around to still close red but in near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.74 will be seen this week. When one considers the negative action of the overall market on Friday, this rally from the low has to be considered a positive, especially considering that the stock had no support below at the week's low at 7.34, meaning there was no automatic buying from computers and algorithms. Nonetheless, the bulls need to generate a green daily close on Monday as it closed on Friday at the previous low daily close. A green close would generate a failure signal against the bears on the daily chart. Otherwise, the 6.89 level would remain as the downside target. ZLAB generated another green weekly close, which means that it bucked the trend in the Chinese index market as well as the weakness in the overall market. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.48 will be seen this week. If the stock does go above last week's high, the recent 2-month downtrend will be broken and a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 21.40 would likely be seen. On a daily closing basis, the 17.73 level remains short-term pivotal support.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.66. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.64. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.64. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.553 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99. 5) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 72.62. Stock closed on Friday at 75.27. 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.07. 7) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 26.26. 8) PYPL - Averaged long at 49.465 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 56.65. Stock closed on Friday at 59.33. 9) INTC - Purchased at 30.34. Stock closed on Friday at 32.98. 10) SNOW - Averaged long at 137.343 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 129.85. 11) DSGR - Purchased at 28.83. Stop loss is at 27.91. Stock closed on Friday at 31.88. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 232.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 224.38.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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