Issue #879
September 22, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Fed was aggressive with the rate cut and the bulls "went to town" on the news!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 42063 The Fed lowered interest rates by 50 points and that was a catalyst to the market. The DOW and the SPX made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs and the NASDAQ made new rally high. The RUT participated but did neither of the two. Having said that, the initial reaction to the news was negative as the DOW, SPX, and NAZ generated a negative reversal day on Wednesday (after the report came out). Nonetheless, that negative reversal day was totally negated on Thursday and the negation was confirmed on Friday as the breaks of resistance were confirmed. All indexes closed on or near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 42160, SPX at 5733, NAZ at 19951, and RUT at 2259) are expected to be seen this week. Chart-wise, the closes on Thursday and Friday suggest that the bulls are in control and that the market will follow through to the upside in a big way. Nonetheless, there is one fact that could be difficult to overcome and that is that on 27 of the last 34 years, the week after the 3rd week of September, the index have declined and of the last 104 years, the indexes have only been able to rally this coming week, on 35 times. In addition, there are now fears that the action seen is a "bubble" that is ready to burst as there are fears that the Fed is late in starting to bring interest rates down, and as such has not done enough to ensure a soft landing. The reality is that "there are more questions now than there were before the Fed decision". It is evident on the charts that the NASDAQ remains the key index. It is the index that actually should be leading the market, if in fact this action is bullish. The index did break some pivotal daily and weekly close resistance levels this week but did not do it in a convincing manner and on an intraweek basis, the index shows 5 different highs around this level (starting in June) and of those 5 highs only 2 were broken and not convincingly. The 5 intraweek highs are at 19977, at 19979, at 20017, at 19904 and at 19938. The index got up to 19950 this past week and did break the last 2 by a small amount but the first 3 did not get broken. In addition, the 20,000 level is a strong psychological resistance area. All of this means is that if the bulls truly want to make a statement, they need the NAZ to break these levels and lead the way. Can that be done this week, a week where seasonally strong selling has been seen on 27 of the last 35 years? The DOW and the SPX are in overbought territory but not severely overbought, meaning that they are not all that fragile. The NASDAQ and the RUT are nowhere near overbought and as such, they are the indexes to watch. Chart-wise, here are the support levels to watch below that if broken, would bring in selling interest. In the DOW and in the SPX, Wednesday's lows at 41449 and at 5615 are the ones to watch. In the NASDAQ the 19221 level and in the RUT the 2176 level are the ones to watch. There are a few economic reports this week that could sway the traders one way or the other. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence number comes out and anticipation is for it to be 103.5%. Below 100% or above 115% would be somewhat catalytic. On Thursday, the weekly Initial Claims number has been important the past few weeks and remains important this week. It is anticipated to come in at 224k. Above 250k or below 200k would be somewhat catalytic. On Friday, and it being perhaps the most important report day for this week, the personal income and spending numbers, as well as PCE prices (inflation) will also be possibly catalytic. The one thing that the traders will now be keying on is the economy and whether the slow down will be less or more than expected. HSI generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did generate a new buy signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed above 18202 and above 17989 (closed at 18258). The index closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18355 will be seen this week. Having said that, the weekly closing chart does show decent resistance between 18293 and 18365, with 4 previous weekly high or low closes in that area and that go back a total of 16 months. The buy signal given has confirmed that the bears have lost control but until these levels get broken, it cannot be said that the bulls have control. The best that can be said is that they have the short-term edge but nothing more. The 17989 level, on a daily closing basis, is now a support level the bulls must stay above.
GOLD(Dec 24 chart) made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2651 will be seen this week. The bulls continue to have full control. The $2572 level on an intraweek basis, is now short-term pivotal support. OIL generated a 2nd green week and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 71.53 will be seen this week. Having said that, the bulls have not yet done anything tangible that would suggest further upside will be seen. Oil closed $.05 below the weekly close resistance at 71.30, which needs to be broken in order to generate a failure signal against the bears. This means that for now, the bears remain in control. For the time being, the 71.30 level on both a daily and weekly closing basis, is short-term pivotal. Nonetheless, for anything indicative to happen, a close above 73.78 or below 67.75 would need to happen to give the bulls or the bears new ammunition.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again, I have no new mentions for this week. The Fed rate decision did favor the bulls but not enough to have confidence that much further upside could be seen. In addition, the risk/reward ratios of potentially further upside movers is not good. On the sell side, there is no tangible reason at this time that would give shorts enough of a probability rating where they can be considered for trading. Seasonal history is also not supportive of either.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated an impressive positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then making the new 10-week intraweek high and then closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 233.09 will be seen this week. Having said that, there were a couple of negatives that might prevent the bulls from taking the stock higher. First of all, the stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having made the high for the week on that day and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting that the first course of action for the week on Monday, will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 227.62. The next potential negative is that there was a downside gap built on July 17th at 232.33 that had no reason to stay open due to the action in the overall index market. The gap was closed "on Friday" and that was the day of the negative reversal, meaning that the upside objective might have been reached. Last but not least, the all-time high weekly close is at 230.54 and the successful retest of that high is at 229.00 and the stock traded above the former for 3 ½ hours on Friday and above the latter all day, before giving all of that up in the last 10-minutes of trading, to close at 228.20. This type of action does suggest that the bulls "failed" on a day where they did not fail elsewhere. The thing to watch this week is the 222.71 level, given that the stock shows a breakaway/runaway gap formation and if the bears can get down and close the runaway gap at that level, the breakaway gap at 216.90 will be targeted and if both of those get closed, the bulls will have no ammunition to take the stock higher. A daily close above 229.79 will give the bulls some additional ammunition, meaning that is indicative resistance this week. AXP generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 271.49 will be seen this week. The Fed rate cut is specifically very helpful to the bank and credit industry and as such, this kind of action was not unexpected. Having said that, there are 28 different rating companies and presently 15 of them have the stock as a hold, 10 of them still have the stock as a buy and 3 of them have the stock as a sell. The highest given objective is $285 and the lowest is $215. The median average is $265 and that median has now been reached. Chart-wise, the stock has outperformed given that the stock had been in an up channel since April and the top of the channel connected right around the 262.37 level (on a weekly closing basis) and with the close on Friday at 268.99, the channel has been broken. This means that either the stock is on a new leg up in the uptrend, or is experiencing a bubble. With the analysts stating that fundamentally the stock is now at, over, or close to the upside target, the probabilities are now shifting toward the bubble outlook. Presently, there is nothing on the charts that even begins to suggest the stock is going to head back down. Nonetheless, the broken-to-the-upside channel line should be tested and that suggests that at least a drop back down to 262.37 will occur (on a daily and weekly closing basis. The previous all-time high daily close is at 259.84 and if that gets broken, the probabilities of a bubble having burst will increase and under that scenario, a drop down to the $224 level would become a possibility and maybe even a probability. For now, consideration should be given to covering the shorts (taking the loss) on a drop back down to the $262 level, but eyes should be kept open for a drop below $260. BABA generated a new 4-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 89.54 will be seen this week. This was a decent positive but the bulls find themselves at a strong pivotal resistance level that needs to be broken before confidence that further upside will be seen. On an intraweek basis, the pivotal level is at 90.46 but on a daily "and" weekly closing basis, the pivotal level is at 88.54. The stock closed on Friday at 88.29, meaning that every day this week (starting on Monday) will be important and indicative. One analyst on Bloomberg TV said on Friday that this stock is way underpriced and should be at a much higher price. Much will depend on what the Chinese index does this week. It too, is at an indicative resistance level. Short-term indicative daily close support is presently at 84.69. A daily close below that level would take ammunition away from the bulls. DD generated a new 3 week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 84.19 will be seen. The stock did have a positive week but the bulls did not accomplish any break of resistance, meaning that the bears remains with a very slight edge. Nonetheless, the levels of resistance are close by above and if broken, the chart would change totally. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 85.12/85.16 (84.97 on the daily and weekly closing chart). A daily close above 84.25 would give the bulls some additional ammunition. The stock closed at 83.34 on Friday. Pivotal daily close support is found at 77.22. FSLR generated a new 12-week high and broke pivotal weekly close resistance at 233.34. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range (closed at 240.20), suggesting further upside above last week's high at 251.67 will be seen this week. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 228.67 (227.43 intraweek). It is important to note that the stock did see some decent selling above $250 as both occasions it got above that level, it sold off to close at 241.81 and at 240.45. This means that even though the bulls accomplished a breakout this week, selling of some consequence is still being seen. Nonetheless, the breakout is of note and not likely to be negated, meaning that covering the shorts (and taking a loss) is likely the best option available. A drop back down to the weekly close breakout at 233.34 is likely to be seen and that is the area where consideration should be given to covering the shorts. IBM made the 3rd new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high in the past 4 weeks and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 218.84 is expected to be seen. The stock made the high early in the week and then saw a 3.9% drop in price (down to 210.37), before recovering most of the loss. The chart does suggest that a bullish flag formation could have been formed, meaning that if a new high is made, it could mean that the stock would have an objective up to 229.34. By the same token, a break below 210.37 would suggest that a drop down to the $200 area could happen. It is important to note that the stock is trading way above the price objectives given to the stock by the rating companies, with the highest price objective given by them in $210. As such, consideration to covering the short position put on this week should only occur if the stocks gets above 220.30 (top of the $220 demilitarized zone). JD generated a new 4-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.90 will be seen. The stock did increase 8% in price above the previous week's close, so it was a decent positive. Nonetheless and like with the Chinese index and like with BABA, the stock is close to an intraweek pivotal level of resistance at 29.71 (29.29 on a weekly closing basis), that is broken would give the bulls short-term control with an additional 16% price appreciation upside objective. Any daily close now below the 200-day MA, currently at 26.85, would negate this move up. LXRX continued to trade sideways with no sign of what is to come. The stock did make a new 2-week high by $.01 cent but then closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's high at 1.60 than going above last week's high at 1.76. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 1.87 and midterm pivotal resistance is at 1.99. Any drop below the previous week's low at 1.56 would be seen as a trigger for lower prices. The stock has now built the chart formation to its fullest degree, meaning that indicative things are now likely to start to happen soon (no sideways action anymore). SNDL nothing new to report here as things remain in the same trading range as has been seen for the past 17 weeks. Having said that, there is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 1.81 and at 1.84. A break of 1.84 will weaken the chart slightly and a break below 1.81 would likely cause the stock to drop down to 1.64 (based on a weekly close). Only a daily close above 2.22 would give the bulls a new edge. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99. VWDRY generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.83 will be seen this week. The bulls failed to generate a break of pivotal intraweek resistance at 8.30 (high for the week was 8.25), meaning that the bears maintain the edge. This was a disappointing week as FSLR, the main stock in the clear energy market, generated a breakout, suggesting the stock should have done the same thing. Having said that, 3 weeks ago, the stock made a new 11-week low and that low has not yet had the needed/required retest, suggesting that a drop below last week's low could end up being that. Daily close support should be found at 7.62, which based on what has happened fundamentally, should not be broken. A rally above 8.30 would be a breakout and a drop below 7.20 would be a breakdown. ZLAB generated a 7-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.91 will be seen this week. Of all the held stocks, this stock was likely to be the most indicative of all, at least on a "tangible" basis breakout. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 25.83 and even then that resistance is minor and old. The next level of resistance of intraweek consequence is found at 29.64. Having said that, the bulls need to stay above the $20 demilitarized zone (19.70-20.30) on a daily closing basis. Any daily close below 19.70 would negate this breakout.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.85. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.54. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.86. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.5447 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.66. 5) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 72.62. Stock closed on Friday at 88.29. 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.99. 7) JD - Averaged lonf at 22.74 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 28.55. 8) IBM - Shorted at 218.74. Stop loss at 220.35. Stock closed on Friday at 217.70. 9) AXP - Averaged short at 252.16 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 268.99. 10) FSLR - Shorted at 231.37. Stop loss now at 244.35. Stock closed on Friday at 240.20. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 228.20. 12) DD - Shorted at 82.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 83.34.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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