Issue #877
September 8, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Setember seasonality in full bloom. Indexes fall sharply!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 40563 The indexes generated a big down week, with the indexes falling between 3% (DOW) and up to 6% (NAZ and RUT). There was no specific news that caused this to happen, even though both the ISM Index and JOBS reports did come in a bit less than anticipated, which meant that there was no new ammunition to support further upside action, and the traders thought it was time to take profits. Helping that thought, is the seasonality of September (being the biggest down month of the year seasonally). The DOW and the SPX both generated a failure signals, having closed below the previous all-time weekly closing highs, the NASDAQ generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 18440, and the RUT generated a second failure signal, having now closed below the previous multi-year high weekly close at 2124 for the second time in 5 weeks. All indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 40297, SPX at 5408, NAZ at 18400 and RUT at 2187). The Tech industry and the NASDAQ have led the way down but an important level of support is on the immediate horizon. The 200-day MA is currently at 18130 and that is a line that has not been broken to the downside for the past 20 months (on a daily closing basis). Given that there has been no catalytic news to support such a break, it is unlikely that it will happen (at this time). This suggests that no more than another 291 points down will be seen this week (on a daily closing basis), as the traders await to see what the Fed decides to do on September 18th. As far as the other indexes, the DOW is likely to continue to be the least affected percentage-wise (due to its "safe stocks" label). Support on an intraweek basis is found at 39853 and on a daily closing basis, at 40002. The SPX does show some minor to perhaps decent intraweek support at 5390 but with the closure of the breakaway gap this past week, the breakaway gap at 5371 will beckon. If that gets closed, there is mostly open air below to the 5254 level. It was stated by an analyst on Bloomberg TV that there is long term support at 5365 but I have not seen or found such a support. Nonetheless, he could be right and as such, that level is certainly a magnet. In the RUT, the 200-day MA is currently at 2038 and there is quite a bit of established daily close support in that area. Nonetheless, there is pivotal daily close support of consequence at 2035, which if broken would be damaging to the bulls. As you can see by the above information about the established supports below, it is unlikely that the bears will have a lot more success than reaching those levels, "without further negative news occurring". The CPI inflation number comes out Wednesday and that could be somewhat catalytic if it comes in surprisingly higher. It is expected to be 2% and there is little reason to believe that the number will be "out of line". Nonetheless, that will be something to watch for on Wednesday. To the upside, these are the resistance levels that if broken would change the short-term outlook. In the DOW, a daily close above 41198, in the SPX, a daily close above 5522, in the NASDAQ, a daily close above 18796 and in the RUT, a daily close above 2124 would take some of the selling pressure off. Nonetheless, I mention these simply to have them in the back of your mind. It is highly unlikely that these resistance levels will be seen during the next 7 trading days. Overall, the bears have short-term control and further downside is expected to be seen but it is likely to be limited (compared to what was seen this past week). Nonetheless, if anything unexpected is to happen, it will likely be to the downside and not the upside. The Fed will have some impact on what the market does thereafter, meaning that for the next 7 trading days there is no way to anticipate anything more than stated above. HSI generated a down week (after 4 up weeks) and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17309 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no chart damage was done as the daily close supports between 17344 and 17417 (3 of them) were not broken (closed at 17440) and the bears had 2 days where they tried and couldn't "get it done". The index did gap down on Thursday and there was no news to support the gap (likely was because of the weakness seen in the U.S. Index market) and that gap (at 17583) is a magnet. The bulls do need to hold this area of support, meaning that a no further downside of consequence can be seen without some chart damage occurring.
GOLD(Dec 24 chart) made a new 3-week intraweek low and its 2nd red weekly close in a row and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2504 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, Gold had made a new all-time daily closing high the week before that generated a sell signal a week ago Friday. That sell signal was successfully tested this week and now the bears have the edge. There are 4 daily close support levels below with 3 of them being somewhat short-term indicative (at $2523, at $2516, at $2507) and the last one at $2492 being pivotal. Gold closed at $2524 on Friday and a close below $2523 on Monday will suggest the bears will have control during this week. A close below $2492 would generate a failure signal against the bulls that would be midterm indicative. A daily close above $2543 would give the edge back to the bulls. On the weekly closing chart, the two levels of importance are at $2546 and at $2444. A close above the former would mean continuation of the uptrend and a close below the latter would mean the uptrend is over. At this time, it seems likely that a correction back down toward the $2444 level has started. OIL made a new 15-month intraweek low and a new 18-month weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.67 will be seen this week. Oil broke two short-to-midterm indicative weekly close support levels at 71.73 and at 69.17 (closed at 68.08) and there is only 1 weekly close support level left nearby at 66.74, which if broken would open the door for a drop down to the $62 level. The 69.72 level (on a daily closing basis) is now resistance. If broken to the upside, some of the sell pressure would be relieved. Nonetheless, at the present time the bears are in control. Considering the overall situation with the Stock indexes and Gold, I have to say that it is unlikely that a major break of support will occur this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions for this week. It is unlikely that much further downside will be seen this week but there are insufficient reasons to consider buying anything at this time due to the seasonality of the month and the uncertainty of what the Fed will so on September 18th.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a red week, meaning that the previous week's close at 229.00 has now become a successful retest of the all-time weekly closing high at 230.54. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 217.48 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 214.62 and then nothing until 206.59. On the daily closing chart, a close below 217.49 would open the door for a fall 210.62. On the weekly closing chart, support is found at 216.24. The chart seems to suggest that a drop down to as low as the $210 level could/should be seen this week, but then a rally occur going into the Fed decision. A daily close above 225.01 would take some ammunition away from the bears. I am strongly considering taking profits if the stock does get down near the $210 level. AXP generated a red week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 243.32 will be seen this week. On the daily closing chart, the bears did generate a failure signal against the bulls, as well as a sell signal, having closed below the previous all-time high daily close at 254.05 and below the previous low daily close at 246.30 (closed at 244.06). No failure signal was given on the weekly closing chart. There is intraweek support at 243.35 that if broken convincingly, leaves open air to 240.18 or even 237.65 before intraweek support is found again. Below 237.65, there is open air to 229.13. The daily closing chart does suggest that 240.18 will be seen this week, but if broken, the same chart suggest the $230 level will be seen. The weekly chart suggests the same thing. Last week's high at 253.57 is now intraweek resistance that should not be broken for now. If the stock drops down to $230, I will also strongly consider taking profits. BABA generated an uneventful inside week but did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 81.17 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 79.27, which if broken would suggest the 200-day MA, currently at 75.91 will be seen. On the opposite side, intraweek resistance is found at 84.75, which if broken would suggest 87.83 will be seen. Neither is likely to be broken this week. DD dropped 8% in value this past week and in the process gave a failure signal against the bulls, negating the 7-month breakout that occurred the previous week. In addition, the stock now shows 2 successful weekly close retests of the 6-year high weekly close at 85.57 which now totals 7 high weekly closes above $82 over the past 6 years, without breaking above 85.57. The minimum correction of all those 7 highs was a drop of 10.5% from the weekly closing high, meaning that if that minimum correction occurs here, a drop down to around the $76 will be seen. That objective is quite valid as there is decent daily close resistance around the 77.50 level. I will be giving serious consideration to covering the short positions in that area. FSLR fell 8% in value this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 207.43 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen over 15% in two weeks without any negative news. The stock is nearing a level of decent intraweek support at 206.85, which is a level likely to be seen this week. If that level is broken, there is open air below to 195.27 and if the stock does start moving down to that level, the 200-day MA, currently at 190.85 will beckon. It does seem that there is a good chance that 206.85 will be broken and in looking at the daily closing chart, a daily close below 207.09 would leave open air below (based on a daily closing basis) until the MA is reached. If that does happen, I will take profits there (at the MA line). A daily close above 218.26 will give the bulls some new ammunition. IBM generated a negative reversal week, having made another new all-time intraweek high but then closing red. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 199.34 will be seen this week. When looking at the action seen in the overall market, the negative reversal of the stock does suggest that some further move down is to come. A retest of the previous all-time weekly closing high at 195.95 is likely to occur on an intraweek basis. Nonetheless, the previous all-time high daily close is at 197.78 and it does not seem likely that the stock will close below that level any day this week, at least not before a retest of the all-time high occurs. This stock has been outperforming the index market and given than the index market is likely to get down to support this week and begin a turn around, I will be giving consideration to covering the short positions around the $196 level and taking a small loss on the trade. At this time, the original objective of the mention ($170-$180) has lost some of the probability rating. JD generated an uneventful inside week. The stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.01 will be seen this week. The recent intraweek low at 25.24 should hold up. A break of that level will weaken the chart. A rally above 27.41, in conjunction with a close above the 200-day MA, currently at 26.90, will give the bulls some new ammunition. The chart does not suggest anything of consequence will happen this week. LXRX generated a 2nd red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.56 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock has been trading mostly sideways between 1.58 and 1.85 (based on weekly closes) for the past 5 months and that did not change this past week. On the intraweek chart, a double low at 1.48/1.51 has been built and given that the stock closed near the low of the week last week, further downside below last week's low at 1.56 is likely to be seen this week. This could mean that the double low could get the needed/required retest of that double low. If that happens and no new low is made, then new buying will be seen. If broken though, a drop down to the next intramonth support at 1.31 will likely be seen. The 2.04 level above is pivotal intraweek resistance. The fundamental picture remains quite positive though, as one of its rating companies maintains its "buy" rating with a $10 objective. SNDL generated an uneventful inside week. It had a very insignificant $.12 trading range for the week, meaning the traders await some catalyst to occur before making any decisions. With the overall market likely to reach support this week and see a bit of a bounce, it is expected the stock will do the same. The stock has been mostly "on hold awaiting cannabis industry news" for the past 6 months, trading clearly between 1.90 and 2.27 (based on a monthly close), meaning that it is unlikely that any breakout or breakdown will occur until news comes out (not a chart trading stock at this time). Having said that, there is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 1.81 and at 1.84. A break of 1.84 will weaken the chart slightly and a break below 1.81 will weaken the chart would likely cause the stock to drop down to 1.64 (based on a weekly close). There is a double low on the daily closing chart at 1.82/1.83 and the 200-day MA is currently at 1.82, so that level is strongly short-term pivotal. Only a daily close above 2.22 would give the bulls a new edge. VWDRY generated a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.20 will be seen this week. This breakdown from its 10-week sideways trading range is indicative that the bears remain in control. Having said that though, the stock is likely to reach a level of intraweek support between 6.55 and 6.89 that is unlikely to be broken without additional negative fundamental news (not likely to occur). This does suggest that the stock could start a recovery rally of consequence that could ultimately take it back up to the $12 level within the next 6-9 months (to the top of the channel that the stock has been in for the past 2-years). On a daily and weekly closing basis, the important support is found between 6.82 and 6.85. With the stock closing on Friday at 7.20, no more than a 4.9% drop is left to be seen. Consideration should be given to buying the stock there (or adding positions). Any daily close above 7.52 would be suggestive that the move down is over. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek high and then closing red. Nonetheless, the red weekly close was only by $.09 cents and the stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, both suggesting that it was not a negatively indicative week. The one thing that the bulls did run into is the 200-day MA, currently at 20.18, which is a line that has not been broken to the upside for the last 9 months. The bulls did get above the line on Thursday with a high at 20.50, but were unable to close above the line. If the bulls can rally above last week's high (at 20.50), a close above the line would likely to occur. If then, the bulls can get above the previous intraweek high at 22.35, the downtrend will be "officially" over. Intraweek support will now be found at 18.09 and short-term pivotal support at 17.68.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.85. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.24. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.20. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.5447 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.61. 5) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 72.62. Stock closed on Friday at 81.18. 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.98. 7) JD - Averaged lonf at 22.74 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 26.07. 8) IBM - Shorted at 194.72. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 200.74. 9) AXP - Shored at 248.42. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 244.06. 10) FSLR - Shorted at 231.37. Stop loss at 233.35. Stock closed on Friday at 208.65. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 220.82. 12) DD - Shorted at 82.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 79.27.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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