Issue #876
September 1, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


September begins. Seasonal down month?

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41563
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5648
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19574
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2217

August did not follow its "so-so-month" seasonality, given that the DOW closed up 1.8% (over July), the SPX closed up 2.3%, and the NASDAQ up 4.7%. The RUT did not follow the lead of the other indexes, given that it closed down 1.7% and that was a bit of a head scratcher as that index should have been the leader at this likely end-of-the-trend scenario.

Once again, the fundamental scenario remained unclear as there were signs that the economy is slowing down but the speculation-scenario (of the Fed beginning to cut rates this month and perhaps stimulating growth by doing so), seems to have grabbed the minds of the traders and instead of the month being a so-so month, it was a furthering-the-rally month.

All the indexes closed either on the high of the week/month (DOW and SPX) or near the high of the week/month (NAZ and RUT) and that means that September is likely to start on a positive note. Nonetheless and given that September is seasonally the worst month of the year (and there is no reason to think it won't be the same this year), it is likely to end up being a red month. Then again, the average drop in the market during September has been 1.65% and if that happens this month, it will not be all that bad, given that when it is compared with the unexpected gains seen in August, the expected drops in price will not do much damage to the charts.

In looking at the charts, August was a crazy month given that at one point during the month, the indexes were down substantially. The DOW was down 5.8%, the SPX was down 7.3%, the NASDAQ was down 10%, and the RUT was down 11.6%, This means that the seasonality factor was "out the window" and that leaves the door wide open for September being anything possible (from a small down month to a big down month). Simply stated, this market is presently "out of whack" and difficult to predict.

Having said all of that, let me "try" to give you some things to watch for this week, that could be "triggers" for this market. To begin with, this week we get the ISM Manufacturing report on Tuesday (expected to be 47.5%) and the JOBS report on Friday (expected to be 165k). If the former is lower, it will be a negative for the market and if the latter is lower, it will be a plus for the market.

As far as chart-wise and to the downside, last week's lows in all the indexes are a selling trigger point. In the DOW that level is at 40842, in the SPX it is at 5560, in the NASDAQ it is at 19221, and in the RUT, it is at 2180. To the upside, these are the buying trigger points. In the DOW there are no triggers to the upside as the index made a new all-time intraweek, daily and weekly closing highs. In the SPX the trigger point is the previous all-time intraweek high at 5665. In the NASDAQ it is at 19938, and in the RUT it is at 2237.

Given that it is likely that September is going to be a red month, it is "unlikely" that the resistance trigger points to the upside will be "triggered" as breaking of those levels would give the bulls an edge that would not likely be turned around until the Fed rate meeting on September 18th and even then, it would only turn around if the Fed did not do anything (unlikely). This does suggest that this week will end up being a red week, though it is also likely that the week will start green and above last week's/month's highs.

Then again and in finishing this comment section, this market is presently being stimulated emotionally and in those cases, the probabilities of the market doing what the charts say should happen, is diminished.

This means that there are no levels above that if broken would generate automatic buying. As such and in this index, the traders will be looking at potential support trigger points where if broken, automatic selling will be triggered.

HSI generated a positive reversal month, having made a new 4-month low and then closing green and near the high of the week/month, suggesting further upside above last week's/month's high at 18207 will be seen this week/month. On the monthly closing chart, the index closed 39 points above a previous low monthly close at 17950, which was a 9-month low close support that when broken brought about the drop down to 14794. This means that if at the end of September, the index generates another green monthly close, the 13-month downtrend will be officially over. Having said that, what is now important for the bulls to do is to break the intraweek resistance found at 18317, which in turn would also change the short-to-midterm chart in favor of the bulls. In looking at the daily chart, pivotal support is found at 17502. There is support at 17752 and at 17583, which could be seen without changing the outlook. The bulls do have a slight edge (and momentum) and the probabilities do slightly favor the pivotal resistance level being broken this week.


GOLD(Dec 24 chart) made a new all-time intraweek and monthly closing high and closed in the upper half of the month's trading range, suggesting further upside above last month's high at $2570 will be seen in September. Having said that, Gold made the new all-time intraweek high the previous week and it was followed by a negative reversal week and confirmation of that this past Friday. Gold closed on the low of the week, suggesting the first course of business for the week/month will be to the downside below last week's low at $2526. The short-term outlook is for further downside but unless the bears can generate a daily close below $2492, the bulls will remain with the edge. Having said that, this week Gold is not likely to do anything significant in either direction. Probabilities favor at $2507-$2537 trading range, based on daily closes.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.36 will be seen this week. The fundamental news that has been coming out recently has been "conflicting" and has generated volatility. Having said that, Oil closed at a weekly close support level between 73.11 and 73.81 (closed on Friday at 73.36) that spans 21 months and has been seen on 5 previous occasions during that time. It is not a pivotal support, but it is an indicative support, meaning that whoever wins the battle on Friday (red or green) will have the edge for the rest of the month. Having said that, the onus is on the shoulders of the bulls, given that on all charts (daily, weekly, and monthly), the bears presently have the edge. In looking at the daily chart (to see the short-term pivotal levels for "this week", on a daily closing basis, a close below 71.93 of above 75.91 would tilt the scales one way or the other.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions for this week. The traders are unclear as to what is to happen and though September is likely to be a down month, at this time the bulls have control.

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2022: Profit of $6,126 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2023: Profit of $20,877 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 8/1

Loss of Loss of $440 using 100 shares per mention

Closed out profitable trades for August per 100 shares per mention

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close.

PYPL (long) $1809
SNOW (long) $408
AXP (short) $3013

Total Profit for August, per 100 shares. $5,230

Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention.

FSLR (short) $98
AAPL (short) $469

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

DSGR (long)$76

Total Loss for August, per 100 shares $533

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

FSLR (short) $400

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

BABA (long) $898
JD (long) $122
ZLAB (long) $637

Total $2,057

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/1

AXP (short) $1023
IBM (short) $741
AAPL (short) $143
DD (short) $218

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ENG (long) $30
LXRX (long) $176
SNDL (long) $60
VWDRY (long)$244

Total $2,635

Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Profit of $4,119

Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 8/31

Profit of $3,679 per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL generated new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 232.92 than going below last week's low at 223.99. The bulls did have a chance to make a new all-time weekly closing high above 230.54 but failed to do so, suggesting that help is needed to be able to do that. One thing that did happen that could be a negative for the bulls is that the gap up at 232.22 was closed on Thursday and a red daily close occurred on Friday, suggesting that a rally high might have been found. Like with the indexes and many stocks, last week's low is a pivotal support level, meaning that if 223.99 is broken, there is open air below to 214.62. On a positive note for the bulls, the stock rallied 15.9% from the low of the month and closed near the high of the month, suggesting that going above last month's high is likely to occur. If the all-time intraweek high at 237.23 is broken, the bulls will get new ammunition.

AXP generated a positive reversal month, having gone below the previous month's low and then closing above the previous month's high. The stock closed near the high of the month and further upside above last month's high at 261.75 is expected to be seen this month. Having said that, the stock generated a negative reversal "day" on Friday, having made the new all-time intraweek high on that day and then closing red and in the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 256.10 will be seen on Monday. With the indexes all closing on the highs of the day on Friday, this was a negative sign. There are no pivotal intraweek levels of support close by that are likely to be reached this week but if the bears can close the stock below the previous all-time high daily close at 253.04, some new selling interest will likely be seen.

BABA generated a new 3-month intramonth and monthly closing high and closed near the high of the month, suggesting further upside above last month's high at 85.79 will be seen this month. Nothing of consequence occurred on the weekly chart but on the daily closing chart, the established daily close support between 79.47 and 79.82 was tested successfully with Wednesday's close at 79.62, followed by 2 green closes thereafter. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 85.41, which if broken would suggest the $87-$88 level would be targeted.

DD made a new 32-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 84.52 will be seen. Nonetheless, the bulls did fall short of breaking the 32-month intraweek high at 85.12. In addition, there are 3 other intraweek resistance levels made over the past 5 years, at 85.16, at 86.28 and at 87.27 and all 3 of those need to be broken for the bulls to make a statement. In all of these occasions when the stock has reached this level of resistance, a correction of note has occurred. In the last time it reached this level, a 10% correction occurred but in the previous 3 before that, the correction was 42%, 23.1% and 23.3%, suggesting that if the bulls fail here (likely), a minimum correction back down to at least the $76 level will be seen. A new all-time high above 87.27 would be a major breakout. The monthly chart does suggest that a failure to break all of these resistance levels would suggest that a drop back down to the 200-month MA, currently at 62.61, would likely be seen over the next 6-9 months.

FSLR generated a positive reversal month, having made a new 3-month intramonth low and then going above the previous month's high and closing in the upper half of the month's trading range, suggesting further upside above last month's high at 244.21 will be seen this month. Having said that though and using the weekly chart, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having made the new intra-month high this past week and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 222.63 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is now found at 232.87 and based on both of the daily and weekly charts, downside objective is 206.85. Nonetheless, there is intraweek support at 217.19 that might stop the stock (temporarily) the first time it heads lower. This stock has been quite volatile as of late and breaking resistance levels of note easily, and then not following through, meaning that it is difficult to put a lot of faith in what the charts suggest is likely to actually occur.

IBM made a new 11-year intramonth and monthly closing high and closed on the high of the month, suggesting further upside above last month's high at 202.17 will be seen this month. Having said that, there is a small mountain of intramonth resistance between 201.24 and 206.22 that dates all the way back to 2013 and has a total of 3 previous monthly highs in that area. It is difficult to see the bulls being able to break above this level under the present economic conditions facing the market the rest of the year. This does suggest that the stock will make a new intramonth high (perhaps as early as Monday) and then begin to fall back. In looking at the monthly chart, the objective is likely to be the 178.75 level, to be seen either in September or October. Nonetheless, that same chart does leave the door open for a fall all the way down to 164.47 by the end of the year. The stock has appreciated in value 10% over the past 4 weeks and has done it in a straight up fashion, which is going to be difficult to maintain due to the established resistance above. As such, there is no intraweek level of support close by, meaning that if the momentum falters, the stock could drop in a fast way. The closest support, but on a daily closing basis, is at 197.78. If the stock closes below that level, a drop back down to the $191 level is likely to occur soon thereafter. On a monthly closing basis (likely to be the objective for a September close) is 190.96.

JD generated a positive reversal month, having made a new 5-month low and then closing green. The stock closed in the middle of the month's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last month's low at 24.13 or above last month's high at 29.71. Having said that though, the stock also generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.41 will be seen this week. If that does happen, the bulls will have accomplished generating a needed/required successful retest of the 6-month low at 24.13 and that is likely to bring in new buying interest. It is evident though, that whatever level is broken of last month's trading range will be strongly pivotal for the rest of the year. Probabilities favor the bulls.

LXRX generated a negative month and closed near the low of the month, suggesting further downside below last month's low at 1.51 will be seen this month. Having said that, the stock has been trading mostly sideways between 1.58 and 1.85 (based on weekly closes) for the past 5 months, with one exception when it broke out the first week of July and then reversed back down the last week of July. On the intraweek chart, a double low at 1.48/1.51 has been built and given that the stock closed near the low of the week last week, further downside below last week's low at 1.66 is likely to be seen this week. This could mean that the double low could get the needed/required retest of that double low. If that happens and no new low is made, then new buying will be seen. If broken though, a drop down to the next intramonth support at 1.31 will likely be seen. The 2.04 level above is pivotal intraweek resistance. The fundamental picture remains quite positive though, as one of its rating companies maintains its "buy" rating with a $10 objective.

SNDL generated a red monthly close and a close near the low of the month, suggesting further downside below last month's low at 1.84 will be seen this month. Nonetheless, this stock has been mostly "on hold awaiting cannabis industry news" for the past 6 months, trading clearly between 1.90 and 2.27 (based on a monthly close), meaning that it is unlikely that any breakout or breakdown will occur until news comes out (not a chart trading stock at this time). Having said that, there is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 1.81 and at 1.84. A break of 1.84 will weaken the chart slightly and a break below 1.81 will be a break of support and likely cause the stock to drop down to 1.64 (based on a weekly close). There is a double low on the daily closing chart at 1.82/1.83 and the 200-day MA is currently at 1.82, so that level is strongly short-term pivotal. Only a daily close above 2.22 would give the bulls a new edge.

VWDRY generated a new 11-month monthly closing low having closed on Friday at 7.60 and the previous low monthly close was at 1.67. The same occurred on the weekly closing chart as the previous 10-month low weekly close was at 7.64. The only chart where a break did not occur is on the daily closing chart as a close below the 7.35/7.39 level is needed there for the same kind of break to occur. The stock did close near the low of the month, suggesting further downside below last month's low at 7.35 is expected to be seen this month. Having said that, the stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.66 will be seen this week and if that happens, a successful retest of the double low on the intraweek chart will occur. A rally above 7.95 would give the bulls a small edge and an intraweek break above 8.30 would turn things around in favor of the bulls. The dichotomy between the charts makes this call difficult. Overall, it does seem that the bears have control and if they do, it suggests that a drop down near the 6.70 level will be seen (uptrend line found there). Nonetheless, the stock has been trading sideways for the past 9 weeks and that suggests that news is needed for a breakdown or mini breakout to occur.

ZLAB generated a 2nd red monthly close and closed on the high of the month, suggesting further upside above last month's high at 20.50 will be seen this month. The stock also closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.04 will be seen. Having said that, there is important and indicative resistance on daily and weekly closing charts around this $20 level, given that there is pivotal daily and weekly close resistance at 20.00 and the 200-day MA is currently at 20.34. The stock closed on Friday at 19.94 and if all of these resistance levels are broken and the break is confirmed with a daily close above 21.55, an important and indicative breakout will have occurred. There is minor daily close support at 18.76 and indicative daily close support at 17.73. If the breakout does occur, the bulls will then need to generate a monthly close above 22.28. If all of that happens, it will be clear the downtrend is over and an uptrend likely to begin.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.94.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.45.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.60.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.5447 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.73.

5) BABA - Averaged long at 75.37 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 72.62. Stock closed on Friday at 83.34.

6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.97.

7) JD - Averaged lonf at 22.74 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 23.55. Stock closed on Friday at 27.00.

8) IBM - Shorted at 194.72. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 202.13.

9) AXP - Shored at 248.42. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 258.65.

10) FSLR - Shorted at 231.37. Stop loss at 233.35. Stock closed on Friday at 227.37.

11) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 229.00.

12) DD - Shorted at 42.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.25.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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