DOW Friday Closing Price - 43428
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6013
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 21614
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2195

The bears ended up having a winning week as the DOW dropped 3% in value, generated a sell and failure-against-the-bulls signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts, and technically broke a minor but likely short-term indicative weekly close support at 43444. The SPX generated both a sell and failure signal on the weekly closing chart (having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 6101 and below the most recent low weekly close at 6025), and the NASDAQ generated a failure signal on the weekly chart, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 21774. All indexes closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 43349, SPX below 6008, and the NAZ below 21597).

There were no economic or earnings reports that supported this move down but some of the impetus for the downside came from Trump's comments made during the week that raised economic concerns. Then again, this move down was somewhat anticipated by the charts, given the chart pattern presently in place that is suggestive of a still up market but in a channel-type formation, with the top of the channel having been reached in the SPX around the high of the week at 6147. The bottom of the channel is presently around the 5820 level.

Given the still tangible uncertainty of Trump's actions results, which will not start to be resolved until next month's reports, the channel formation is likely to be respected, meaning that it cannot be said that the top of the rally uptrend has been found. Nonetheless and for the next 1-2 weeks at least, the downside is likely to be seen as the traders await the reports the first week of March. The probabilities (due to Trump's actions so far) do favor the bears. The traders await confirmation of that outlook.

As such and for the next 2 weeks, these are the levels that the indexes are likely to trade down to. In the DOW, the minimum downside objective is 42938 but the monthly chart suggests a drop all the way down to 42146 could be seen. The monthly close occurs on Friday. In the SPX, the downside objective is 5830, which is where there is established intraweek support, as well as the up-channel line that is presently at 5820. There is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 5923, which if broken would show open air down to those levels. The NASDAQ has been outperforming the other indexes and that is not likely to change at this time. Having said that, there are 3 potential downside objectives, with the first one being 21313 (minor support), the second one being 20913 (decent intraweek support) and the last one being 20800. The second one is the most probable.

To the upside and where this chart outlook would change if these levels are broken, you have in the DOW 44303 (on a daily closing basis). If a close above that level occurs (unlikely), the chart picture would change. In the SPX, any daily close above 6118 would negate the chart picture, and in the NASDAQ, that level is at 22096, but a close above 21900 would give the bulls some ammunition.

As far as the RUT is concerned, the index closed slightly below the 200-day MA (currently at 2201) on Friday (closed at 2195). A daily close below 2189 would trigger a lot of additional selling interest, with the 2092-2124 area as the downside objective. In looking at the monthly chart, there is short-term pivotal intraweek support at 2153, which if broken would show no support until 2107 is reached. The problem for the bulls here is that if the 2153 level is broken, a negative reversal month will have occurred on the intramonth chart, given that the index went above last month's high this month. If that occurs, it would potentially open the door for a drop all the way down to the 1900 level and even perhaps as low at 1740 (over the next 3-6 months). There are a few economic reports due out this week with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Thursday and PCE Inflation number on Friday. The latter is the most important it is expected to come out at .3% and given that CPI came out at .%5 the previous week, it is more likely to be a negative surprise for the market. Overall, this week should be mostly down (if not all down).

The Chinese market was a "big winner this past week with the HSI index making a new 3-year intraweek and weekly closing high. The index has rallied 20.5% over the past 27 trading day and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23479 will be seen this week. The monthly close on Friday is going to be important as there is monthly close resistance at 22961, which if broken will generate an indicative failure signal against the bears and then another minor but likely short-term monthly close resistance at 23802, which would suggest further upside to at least 24643 but likely up to 25177 would occur within a few months. The index closed on Friday at 23477, meaning that all of those levels are in play this week. I do believe some selling will be seen by Friday and the close be around the 23000 demilitarized zone, as the Chinese await next months U.S. economic numbers.

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GOLD(Apr 2025 chart) made another new all-time high across the board, having gone $5 above the previous week's intraweek high at $2968 and having closed $53 above the previous week's close at $2900. Nonetheless, it is evident that some selling interest or profit taking interest is being seen as the $3000 level is being reached. Gold got up to at least $2958 on 7 of the last 8 trading days and the highest seen was $2973. Gold did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2973 will be seen this week, but the $3000 demilitarized zone (up to $3030) is not likely to get broken this week, as the traders are likely to wait to see what the economic reports say in March as to what Trump's actions are generating. Then again and with inflation likely heading higher and the Fed not likely to raise rates in March, the probabilities of going clearly above $3000 next month are high. Intraweek support is found at $2887, which if broken (unlikely) would cause the outlook to change.

OIL made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 70.05 will be seen this week. Oil has now generated 5 red weeks in a row and has dropped 13.3% over the past 6 weeks since Trump took office. There is a lot of support under this area for the next $3 but the momentum is to the downside and it is certainly now possible that the bears can take control. There are 4 levels of intraweek support at 69.28, at 68.22 at 67.72, at 66.98 and strongly pivotal at 65.27. The support is strong in this area but a break 67.72 would give the bears an edge of consequence, This means that any move bigger than $2.50 below Friday's close at 70.22 would likely automatically trigger a slew of new selling interest. On a positive note, a confirmed daily close above 70.81 would take quite a bit of the sell interest and edge from the bulls. A weekly close above 71.92 would negate the present chart picture.

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