DOW Friday Closing Price - 43487
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5996
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 21441
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2275

This past week was a win for the bulls as all economic and earnings reports were good. The indexes all generated between a 2.8-3.9% increases in price and all closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. In the DOW, last week's high was 43653, in the SPX, it was 6014, in the NASDAQ, it was 21515 and in the RUT, it was 2289.

The traders have now accomplished what they set out to do (given the announcement of the Trump win in November), which was to build a close by support level that if broken after Trump takes office on Monday, will give a dependable sell signal. By the same token, if the all-time highs made in November after the win was announced are broken, it will also be seen as a dependable buy signal. Having said that, "dependable" will only apply for a short period of time given that the Trump presidency does suggest that volatility will be high during his entire presidency, due to the nature of the fundamental changes he brings to the table, which are by nature events that will bring uncertainty of results.

This does mean that the "recent" intraweek lows are negative trigger points that if broken, will be confirmation of a short-to-midterm downtrend. Those intraweek levels are at 41844 and 41647 in the DOW, at 5773 and at 5697 in the SPX, at 20538 (intraweek) and at 20395 (on a weekly closing basis) in the NASDAQ and at 2158 and 2080 in the RUT. On the opposite side (up), the levels are at 45073, at 6099, at 22133, and at 2466, respectively.

The Trump presidency starts on Monday and the changes he is bringing to the table are going to generate serious effects to the economy throughout his presidency. Trump is pro-business and that will stimulate strong buying interest but he is also generating actions that can have serious consequences to the economy (such as inflation and a higher national debt), which would stimulate selling interest. Neither of these questions can be answered today with any degree of certainty, meaning that this coming week will likely be indicative, given that Trump has promised to "start with a bang from day one" and we will likely see those actions starting on Tuesday. This does open the door for this week not only being uncertain but also being a week with big movement (on either side) occurring. As such, there is nothing else that I can add today to this newsletter. There are no close by trigger points that I can give.

I will say though, that the action seen this past week did suggest that the traders are "betting" that the bulls will win this round. The DOW did close convincingly above a weekly close resistance level at 43275 (closed at 43487), the SPX did close slightly above a weekly close resistance level at 5995 (closed at 5996), the NASDAQ closed convincingly above a weekly close resistance at 21117 (closed at 21447) and the RUT did close at a weekly close resistance at 2276 (closed at 2276). On Monday, the indexes are likely (should) go above last week's highs and that will mean the chart supports are built and set. The indicative action will start on Tuesday.

HSI index generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-week low but then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19664 will be seen this week. Like with the U.S. indexes, a move above last week's highs will also generate a support level that if broken, would man further downtrend will be seen but if it not broken, would suggest further recovery will occur. Last week's intraweek low at 18646 fell into an established and indicative intraweek support level between 18235 and 18848, meaning that the likelihood of the chart action now being indicative is high. Since the election result on November 6th came out, the index dropped 2425 points (11.6%) in value due to the Trump win (and the likely increase of Tariffs that Trump has promised to put on China). Now that Trump takes office, we will see exactly how much does occur and how that will affect the Chinese market. It is highly likely that "most" of the tariff increases has been factored into the price, meaning that the probabilities do favor the bulls. The index closed on Friday at 19584 and there is indicative weekly close resistance at 19553 that did get broken. A 30 point break is not dependable, meaning the bulls need another green weekly close this Friday, in order to gain new ammunition. On a daily closing basis, short-term indicative resistance is found at 19700 and to the downside, it is found at 19426. A break of either of those on Tuesday night is likely to be indicative.

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GOLD(Feb 2025 chart) generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2758 will be seen this week. The bulls did generate a break of the $2724 level of weekly close resistance but fell short by $1 of making a new all-time high weekly close above $2749 (closed at $2748). Having said that, the probabilities of inflation remaining where it is or going higher, in conjunction with the Fed not fighting it at this particular time, does suggest that new highs will be made. On an intraweek, "and" on a daily closing basis, that would mean getting above $2801. On a weekly closing basis, that would require a green close next Friday by at least $2. Any daily close below $2715 would be seen as a negative. Based on the fundamental picture and the charts, it does suggest the bulls will win the battle this week, no matter what Trump does.

OIL made a new 22-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 79.16 will be seen this week. The fundamental picture for the short-term has been positive but Oil now finds itself at a decent resistance level that starts between 78.01 and up to 82.35, which will require additional positive fundamental changes to break above. In fact, Oil did close at 78.71 on Wednesday and followed that up with 2 red daily closes on Thursday and Friday, which does suggest that the first course of business at the beginning of the week, will be to the downside with the $76 level as the objective. The chart does suggest that Oil will be trading between 75.56 and 78.11 (based on weekly closes) for the next few weeks. A break above or below those levels do suggest further upside or downside of about $4 in whatever direction it goes. At this moment (this week or next), Oil is not likely to be all-that-much tuned in to what Trump does.

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