Issue #890
December 08, 2024 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls are in a runaway freight train scenario that has no clear end in sight.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 44642 The indexes had a mixed week with all of them (exclusive of the RUT) making new all-time highs. Nonetheless, the DOW did generate a negative reversal week, having closed red and near the low of the week, while SPX and the NASDAQ closing at new all-time weekly closing highs and at or near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (SPX at 6099 and NAZ at 21629) will be seen this week. This was a change that might be a sign that the mentality is shifting to a more bullish tone, given that it has been the DOW that has led the way since the Trump win was announced. By the same token, with the NASDAQ leading the way this week, it does give the rally additional support and credence, given this has been the leading index the past 10 years in the bull trend. The ISM and Jobs report came out this week and they were mostly as expected, so nothing catalytic occurred because of them. As such, the bulls remain in full control and the rally is likely to continue this week. The only report this week that could have any consequence is the CPI (inflation) report on Wednesday. It is expected to be .3% and it is unlikely that any surprise will occur, meaning it is unlikely to affect the market. Having said all of that, the indexes remain overdone to the upside and without any nearby support levels built. Those do need to be built before Trump takes office 7 weeks from now, meaning that at some point, the indexes will generate a correction and of some consequence. The question being "when"? In the DOW there is no established support until 41657 and that is 3524 points below Friday's close. In the SPX that support is at 5696 and that is 394 points lower, and in the NASDAQ, that support is at 19880 and that is 742 points lower. With the exception of the DOW, none of those supports are decent, meaning they can be broken without causing any long-term damage to the chart. For this week though, the SPX is the index to watch. The Index has stayed above the 200 10-minute MA for the past 11 trading days. That line is presently at 6066 and if that line gets broken and confirmed with closure of the up gap at 6052, it would suggest that the correction-to-build-a-new-support-level has begun and a drop down to at least the 5970 level will likely have started. Such a correction would be minimal (2% from Friday's close) but it would be a sign that the top to this rally has been found, at least until Trump takes office. Nonetheless, at this time the indexes are in a "runaway freight train" scenario and that does keep the upside wide open for more, especially since there are still several week's ahead before common sense "has to" come into play. HSI Index generated a second green weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19865 will be seen this week. On a positive note for the bulls, there was intraweek resistance at 19706 that did get broken, but then the older and indicative weekly close resistance at 19916 did not get broken, meaning that the bears still have the edge though for this week more intraweek upside is likely to be seen with 20079 (based on a daily close) likely to be reached but not likely to be broken. Then again, if broken and confirmed broken, then it will change the chart slightly in favor of the bulls. To the downside, the 19560 level (on a daily closing basis) is now short-term pivotal support. Probabilities favor the index trading between those two levels, though there is a downside gap between 20705 and 20515 that might be a magnet this week.
GOLD(Feb 2025 chart) generated a very uneventful inside week but did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2636 will be seen this week. Such a move is actually expected, given that the 8-week intraweek low at $2560 does need/require a retest of it before the bulls step back in. Such a move would make the $2560 level a new and decently strong support from which new highs would be targeted. In looking at the daily chart, there is intraweek support at $2618 that is unlikely to be broken, meaning that a drop below $2636 should be minimal. The $2709 level should be resistance for this week. A rally above $2737 would negate this scenario and give the bulls the edge. OIL came within a "hair's breath" away from a breakdown but the bulls managed to not generate that ominous sell signal that has been facing oil for the past 3 months. Having said that, Oil did close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 66.98 is expected to be seen and if 66.61 gets broken, it will likely trigger strong selling. If that happens and the 65.27 level does get broken (3 month low), it would be a chart breaker for the bulls. The $60-$62 level would then likely be seen but the door for a 3-6 month drop down to the $40 would get open. The 70.51 level is now intraweek resistance that if broken, could take away the short-term edge from the bulls. Having said all of that, the chart is set for a breakdown.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again, I have no mentions for this week. The outlook remains highly uncertain. Nothing at this time is clear enough to trade.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL made another new all-time intraweek, daily, weekly and monthly high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 244.63 will be seen this week. This action confirms the breakout and give a weekly close objective of 249.84 (based on the pattern in place). This breakout does negate downside potential of any note, meaning that without negative fundamental news, the potential downside is 235.00 or at best 230.54. The stock did generate a red daily close on Friday and near the low of the day, opening the door for a retest of the previous all-time daily closing high at 236.48 occurring this week. Consideration to covering the shorts on such a move should be given. One thing that did happen this past week is highly unusual option activity with purchases of options by whale investors was way more than usual. In addition, calls outweighed puts by almost 4-1. There are some fundamental factors out there that could be negative to the stock, such as potential retaliation by China if Tik-Tok is closed in the U.S. Nonetheless, the action seen does favor the bulls strongly. A confirmed daily close below 236.48 would take away some ammunition from the bulls. AXP generated a red weekly close but closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 306.85 than below last week's low at 299.91. This stock had been leading the market to the upside but relinquished that lead this week, likely due to the fact that the DOW did the same. One chart thing that could explain the weakness seen is a gap up between 301.92 and 302.00, which was not a supported by news gap, and therefore likely to be closed. With the gap closed and the stock rallying on Friday to close in the upper half of the week's range, it does suggest further upside will be seen this week. On the negative side, the DOW should be heading lower this week, so that could have an effect. It does need to be noted that the all-time intraweek high has not been tested yet (on the daily chart) and having gone above Thursday's high on Friday, such a retest could be happening. Last week's low is a short-term key. If broken, the door will be open for a drop all the way down to $285. At this time, if that drop does occur, consideration to covering the shorts should be given. BCTX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek high and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .90 will be seen this week. The red weekly close at .956 does make the previous week's close at .98 into a potential double high on the weekly closing chart, which if confirmed (a close below .60) would be damaging to the bulls. Nonetheless, there is a fair amount of support between .82 and .96 and the fundamental picture presently slightly favor the bulls, suggesting that this action is more of a base building pattern than a trend pattern. Any daily close below .79 would weaken the chart further. Any daily close above 1.07 would give the bulls some ammunition and a daily close above 1.24 would give the bulls short-term control. The same thing can be said if a weekly close above .98 occurs. IBM generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 238.38 will be seen this week. There was no fundamental supporting news, meaning it was part of the overall rally across the board and as such, still sensitive to what the index market does. The new all-time intraweek high was only by $1.01 and the all-time daily closing $2.78, meaning that confirmation of this new high is pivotal this week, for the bulls to step in a bigger way. Any daily close this week below 235.36 would generate a failure signal. The stock has moved up 16% in value over the past 3 weeks without any fundamentally bullish change, meaning that this rally is all about expectations and not about tangible items. Having said that, the bulls are in control and further upside is the most likely scenario. One piece of warning for the bears. Over the past 14 months, the stock has rallied 42% and 40% from correction lows and if that occurs now from the last correction low at 204.99, it would offer a $287-$289 objective. Consideration should be given to covering shorts around the $235 level. LXRX made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .62 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, for the first time in the last 9 trading days (2nd time in the last 19 days), some buying interest was seen on Friday, having generated a green day and a rally of 12% from the day's low. The stock did close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week on Monday will be above Friday's high at .745. If the stock can get above last week's high at .804, it will be a sign that the bottom has been found and if the stock can get above the recent high at .925, it will generate a buy signal. Having said that, only a daily and weekly close above 1.01 will be confirmation that the downtrend is over. To the downside, there is no support built. SNDL continued lower but then again, it only closed $.03 below the previous weekly close, meaning that it was not all that indicative. Having said that, the stock has traded below the 200-day MA (currently at 2.01) for the past 8 trading days and until that changes, the bears have the edge. Key level to watch is the 1.82/1.83 level on a daily closing basis. A close at that price or lower will suggest the bears have gained control and further downside down to 1.61-1.66 would likely be seen. A daily close above 2.02 would do the opposite. VWDRY negated the rally and failure signal against the bears that was given last week and ended up making a new 6-year intraweek and weekly closing low. The weakness seen was not caused by any news, so considering what happened the prior week, this move down has no explanation other than the Trump lack of support for green energy. Having said that, the new weekly close was only by $.01 cent and if a green close occurs this week, it could end up being a double bottom (unlikely but possible). One small positive is that the break of support occurred on Wednesday and it should have brought more selling as there is no support below until the 4.20 level is reached. Nonetheless, the stock generated 2 green daily closes on Thursday and Friday. The bears are in control but the action the last 3 weeks does suggest that the bears have very little strength here. As it is, this entire move down was based on the Trump announcement and not on any negative fundamental change. A daily close above 4.58 (closed at 4.57 on Friday) would take some ammunition away from the bears. Some short-term indicative resistance is found at 4.93 and any daily close above 5.14 would be short-term bullish. To the downside, there is no support until the 4.10-4.20 is reached. ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.52 will be seen this week. There was no negative news but this move down was somewhat expected given that the stock made a new 5-week low 4 weeks ago and that low needs/requires a retest before the bulls step in a bigger way. That 5-week low represented a 32% drop from the 36.60 rally high seen. If the stock does go below last week's low but does not break the 24.85 level and then starts a rally, the short-term objective will be 31.22.Evidently, a break below 24.85 would be short term bearish.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.97. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.08. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.57. 4) LXRX - Purchased at .93 Averaged long at 1.513 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .705. 5) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .957. 6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.90. 7) IBM - Shorted at 218.74. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 238.04. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 252.16 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 303.99. 9) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 242.84.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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