Issue #893
January 5, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


New Year has begun and the market remains uncertain.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 42732
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5942
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 21326
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2268

The "holiday period" was unindicative as the indexes basically did nothing. Over the past 3 weeks (based on the weekly closes), the DOW dropped 108 points, the SPX rallied 10 points, the NASDAQ rallied 37 points and the RUT rallied 26 points. This means that the moves that occurred during this perior of time were less than 1%. On Friday, the indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 42905, SPX at 5949, NAZ at 21359 and RUT at 2269) will be seen this week.

From a chart basis, none of the indexes has gone above a previous week's intraweek high during the past 5 weeks and that "could" mean 2 things (if and when the indexes do go above last week's highs this week): 1) the building of a new support base has occurred with the lows made in December (DOW at 42146, SPX at 5829, NASDAQ at 20800 and RUT at 2194) becoming support, "and" 2) a retest of the highs will be seen over the next 2 weeks. Having said the above, the SPX and the NASDAQ did break the established intraweek support levels built 4 weeks ago and the NAZ did break the daily close support from 4 weeks ago and that is a "door that is still ajar" (as far as further downside occurring) and that cannot give the bulls all that much confidence. In addition, both of these indexes went below December's lows at the end of this past week (and in January), suggesting that no new all-time highs will be made in January. Then again, both the DOW and the RUT did stay above last month's lows and that is a dichotomy that keeps things unclear. The reality is that the NASDAQ is generally the leader to the upside, so the probabilities do not favor that happening. By the same token, the Jobs report comes out this Friday and that can always be a catalyst for either side. On the other hand, the biggest catalyst out there right now is Trump taking office, so none of the above is dependable.

It is unlikely that the Jobs report will be out of line and the fact that the NASDAQ did generate a break of the daily close support established on December 19th, as well as given a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the previous all-time high daily close at 21117 (closed at 20975) "but" then on Friday all of the above was negated, does suggest that the latter of the 2 things mentioned above, is the most probable (a retest of the all-time high).

On the intraweek chart, the NASDAQ has open air up to 21517 (minor resistance) and at 21784 (minor resistance as well). With the index closing on Friday at 21326, it means that a rally of 191 or 458 points is likely to be seen over the next 2 weeks. On a daily closing basis, there is pivotal and indicative resistance at 21797, which is highly unlikely to be broken before Trump takes office on January 20th. On the opposite side of the coin, any daily close below 20970 would now be a negative sign.

The next 2 weeks are going to be all chart related, meaning the building of the chart for what Trump is going to do, what is likely to be seen. With the probabilities of the new intraweek support levels having been built now being relatively high, it is likely that more upside than downside will be seen. The NAZ closed at 21326 on Friday and a drop back down to the 21000 level, as well as a rally up to the 21750 level, are likely to be seen during this period of time. This means 300 points to the downside and 400 points to the upside is what is in store for the next 2 week, with the only question being "which area will be seen first?".

One last thing to watch is the SPX that will start the earnings report season on January 15th and 16th with C, JPM, GS and MS reporting on those days. Those earnings reports could generate some movement in either direction, just a few days before Trump takes office. Having said that, this is all about Trump right now and for the next 2 weeks, it is unlikely that anything of consequence will occur.

HSI Index did the same thing as the U.S. indexes did, meaning an uneventful month. It generated an inside month but did close slightly in the lower half of the month's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probably of going below last month's low at 19386 than above last month's high at 21070. The index did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then going below the previous week's low and closing near the low of the week, suggesting the first course of business for the week, will be to the downside and below last week's low at 19623. Having said all of the above, the index is sitting at or close to quite a bit of support on all charts. On the weekly closing chart, there is support at 19553 and on the intramonth chart, there is support at 19054, which at this time (the next 2 weeks), should not be broken. The daily chart suggests that a drop down to 19332 will be seen but then again, there is an open gap above between 20003 and 19932 that should be closed as there was no fundamental news to support the gap. This means that the probabilities favor the index trading between 19300 and 20030 for the next 2 weeks. With the index closing on Friday at 19760, that is 460 points to the downside and 270 points to the upside. A break above 20193 would be a short-term game changer for the bulls, while a drop below 19054 would do the opposite.


GOLD(Feb 2025 chart) generated an uneventful inside month but did close in the lower half of the month's trading range, suggesting further downside below last month's low at $2585 will be seen this month. Nonetheless, Gold did generate a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and the closing green and above the previous week's high and in the upper half of thw week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $2681 will be seen this week. The green weekly close also suggests that a successful retest of the low weekly close at $2582 (seen 9 weeks ago) has now occurred, giving the bulls the short term edge. This mean that if Gold is to go below December's low, it will not happen until after Trump takes office. On a short-term basis (this week), the $2635 and $2690 levels are short-term pivotal. A break below the former will take Gold to $2618 and a break above the latter, a rally to $2735. The latter is the more probable scenario.

OIL made a new 3-month high on Friday and in the process generated a short-term buy signal, as well as a failure signal against the bears) on both the daily and weekly closing chart. Oil closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.35 will be seen this week. Having said that, there has been no change in the overall fundamental picture, other than an increase of demand seen this past week. As such, the action seen is not likely to generate much further upside, but by the same token and for the next few weeks, a break of the pivotal support below (around the $66 level) is not likely to occur either. To the upside, the 77.14 level on a daily closing basis, or 75.56 on a weekly closing basis, are pivotal. Oil is likely to trade between 76.18 and 71.41 for the next 2 weeks.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Once again, I have no new mentions this week. I am also not likely to have any mentions until after Trump takes office on January 20th.

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2022: Profit of $6,126 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2023: Profit of $20,877 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2024: Loss of $1,244 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 12/1

Profit of $163 using 100 shares per mention

Closed out profitable trades for December per 100 shares per mention

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close.

NONE

Total Profit for December, per 100 shares. $0

Closed out losing trades for December per 100 shares of each mention.

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

IBM (short) $182

Total Loss for December, per 100 shares $182

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/1

NONE

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

AXP (short) $2367

Total $2,367

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/1

JD (long) $205

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

SNDL (long) $28
VWDRY (long) $244
AAPL (short) $1,249
LXRX (long) $108
ZLAB (long) $1,862
ENGC (long) $36
BCTX (long) $42

Total $3,774

Status of trades for month of December per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Loss of $1,407

Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 12/31

Loss of $1,244 per 100 shares.

Ending Results for 2024

Yearly totals:

Total amount of months showing profit = 3
Total amount of months showing loss = 9

Total profit/losss for year per 100 shares after commissions profit/losses substacted
Loss of $1,244



Updates on Held Stocks

AAPL generated a red week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 241.82 will be seen this week. Some somewhat negative fundamental news came out to gave the bulls reason to take profits. Nonetheless, the previous all-time high daily close is at 236.48 and that level is the objective for the week. I will likely get out at that price and look to re-short the stock after (or a few days before) Trump takes office. Any daily close below 234.82 would suggest further downside will occur. Any daily close above 251.04 would suggest the correction is over.

AXP generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 303.43 will be seen this week. The stock has built a new intraweek support level at 286.43 and now shows a successful retest of that support with last week's low at 294.13. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 305.09, which if broken would suggest the bulls will try to make a new all-time high above 307.82. The chart does suggest the bulls will be the victors but the resistance area between 303.42 and 305.09 is very well established (12 intraweek highs over the past 3 weeks) and that suggests that a positive fundamental piece of news (or the indexes rallying strongly) needs to occur for that area to be broken. Having said that, the short-term levels of support/resistance are clearly established at 294.13 and 305.09. Stock closed on Friday at 303.08.

BCTX made a new 11-day intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .65 will be seen this week. A buy and failure-against the bears signals were given on the daily chart and a failure-signal-against the bears on the weekly chart was given when the stock closed above .59. This does suggest that the sell interest seen since the company announced the sale of the additional 7.5 million shares has gone away and given that the shares were sold at .75, it would suggest that is the objective for this week. There is intraweek resistance at .82, which if broken would give the bulls a short-term edge. There is further intraweek resistance at .88, and on a weekly closing basis, pivotal at .98. A rally back up to .98 would also close the gap that was created when the news hit. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, the .595 level is now support (.55 on an intraweek basis).

BTZI generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at .72 into a successful retest of the 18-month high weekly close at .75, which when broken was considered a major breakout. With the fundamental picture changing (company using AI now), this confirmation of the breakout is likely indicative. There is weekly close resistance at .011 and strongly pivotal and indicative at .014. Any weekly close below .0072 would negate all of this. The outlook for the future is looking positive.

JD generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.36 will be seen this week. The green weekly close means that the pivotal 35.00 area of weekly close support has been tested successfully, given that the stock closed the previous weekly at 34.98. A daily close above 36.46 will confirm this retest and generate new buying interest and further continuation of the recovery rally that started in September. Any daily close now below 34.23 will give the bears the edge back.

LXRX generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .80 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock now shows a successful retest of the all-time intraweek low at .62 and as well as of the all-time weekly closing low, with a drop down to .64 (.71 on a weekly closing basis) that was seen the previous week. Confirmation of that successful retest has not yet occurred but any weekly close above .81 (.89 on a daily closing basis) would accomplish that. Nonetheless, to generate any strong buying interest, the bulls need to generate a weekly close above 1.01. On a daily closing basis, a close below .71 would be seen as a negative. Stock closed on Friday at .79.

SNDL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2 week low and then closing above the previous week's high and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last month's high at 1.95 will be seen this week. The stock generated a failure signal against the bulls, having closed above the previous low weekly close at 1.82. If the stock does go above last week's high this week, a successful retest of the recent intraweek low at 1.65 will have occurred as last week's low was 1.72. Any rally above 2.08, with a daily close above 2.05 (which is where the 200-day MA is currently at), would give the bulls the edge back. Intraweek support is now found at 1.72.

VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2 week low but then closing green, above the previous week's high, and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.86 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low at 4.44 will become a successful retest of the multi-year low at 4.31, which in turn will give the bulls a bit of new ammunition. A break above the recent 8-week high at 5.18 would mean the downside is over and a recovery rally is to occur, with at least a rally up to 5.94 seen. This entire drop seen was caused by the Trump win. Nonetheless, the fundamentals of the company have not changed and the probabilities of the stock rallying up to the $6 are decent. The 4.44 level is now indicative support.

ZLAB generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week' low at 24.28 than above last week's high at 26.98. Having said that and looking at the weekly closing chart, the stock does show some minor weekly close support at 25.30 (which is exactly where the stock closed) and at the 100-week MA, which is also at 25.30. Over the past 3 months, the 100-week MA has bee important as it was resistance the week of September 30th and after it was broken 2 weeks later, it has been support on 2 different occasions. A green close next Friday would mean the line has held up 3 times. On a daily closing basis, the 24.62 level is short-term pivotal support, which if broken would offer a drop down to at least 22.49. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 27.22, which if broken would suggest the correction is over. There is no clear short-term picture at this time but overall, the bulls do have the edge.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.30.

2) ENGC - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .44.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.86.

4) LXRX - Purchased at .93 Averaged long at 1.513 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .79.

5) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .63.

6) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.92.

7) JD - Purchased at 36.72. Stop loss is at 32.97. Stock closed on Friday at 35.34.

8) AXP - Averaged short at 252.16 (3 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 303.08.

9) AAPL - Shorted at 227.57. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 243.36.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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