DOW Friday Closing Price - 42841
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5750
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 20201
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2075

This past week the bears were in total control as the indexes took a big fall with the DOW dropping 2.7%, the SPX and the NASDAQ both dropping 3.1%, and the RUT dropping 4.1%. On an intraweek basis, the drops were 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.4% and 6.5% respectively. The downtrend action was all Trump-actions oriented, as the economic reports came out mostly as expected (ISM Index at 50.3% - expected at 50.5% and Jobs came in at 153k - expected 161k). Trump announcing the beginning of the Tariffs on Canada and Mexico was the negative catalyst. The indexes did rally on Friday as Trump once again announced he was postponing the tariffs for at least 1 week. Nonetheless, all indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week (DOW below 42175, SPX below 5666, NAZ below 19736, and RUT below 2033).

Having said that, chart damage was done this week, with the DOW generating a failure signal (closed below a previous all-time high weekly close at 43275), the SPX generating a new sell and a failure signal (having closed below a previous all-time high at 5866, as well as below a pivotal weekly close support at 5827), the NASDAQ also generated confirmation of the sell signal given the previous week, as well as a a failure signal (having closed below a previous all-time high at 20391), and the RUT giving a new sell and failure signal (having closed below a previous low weekly close of importance at 2080, as well as below a previous multi-year high weekly close at 2124).

With the exception of the DOW and the RUT, the indexes have open air below, suggesting further downside of consequence could be seen. The DOW does have important and pivotal intraweek support at 41844 and additional one at 41687. The RUT has the 200-week MA at 2028 and confirmation of the break of the line would come if 1993 is broken. The CPI inflation report comes out on Wednesday and if inflation is higher than expected, it could generate the kind of selling that would be "across the board" and would signal that a correction of consequence is occurring and could signal that a downtrend has begun.

One last but also important thing to watch for this week is the 200-day MA. In the DOW, that line is at 41911. In the SPX that line is at 5733 and in the NASDAQ it is at 20247. The DOW has not reached it but it is close by. The SPX got down (and below) the line this week but closed above it, and the NAZ broke that line on Thursday and confirmed the break on Friday. The RUT has been below the line for the last 10 days. If all indexes close and confirm the break of the line, it would be a strong tangible negative.

The bulls are on the defensive and the fundamental picture is short-term negative, given that Trump's actions are at least, negative for the short-term. It will be difficult for the bulls to stop this down move this week unless the inflation number comes in better than expected. In looking at the chart, these are the resistance levels above, which if broken would give the bulls some ammunition. In the DOW an intraweek break above 43373 would take away ammunition from the bears. In the SPX, a rally above 5878 and in the NASDAQ a rally above 20690, would take ammunition away from the bulls. In the RUT, the number is 2237.

One thing that is overhanging the market, and is a strong obstacle for the bears to overcome, is the fact that the reports next month will fully begin to reflect what Trump is doing. The reports that came out this month did not yet reflect the firings of so many people (unemployment numbers to increase) and did not begin to reflect the negatives of the tariffs imposed, or the negatives of the services that were ended. This means that the fear of a recession will continue until that gets cleared up a bit more.

HSI index made a new 3-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24666 will be seen the week. This week was also a positive reversal week, given that the index went below the previous week's low and closed above the previous week's high. Over the past 4 days, the index has moved up 8.7% and has gapped up twice, creating a breakaway and runaway formation with the runaway gap being at 23636. Closure of the gap would make the breakaway gap at 23051 into the next objective. This kind of a gap formation in addition to the amount of rally seen, does give the index a high probability of reaching the next resistance level at 25050. That resistance is considered minor (on the midterm chart). The index did close in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday, suggesting that the first course of business on Monday is for the bears to attempt to close the gap. On a daily closing basis, there is support at 23787. The fundamental picture is not likely to change this week and given that the tariffs seem to be a failed negative, there seems to be nothing that will prevent the index from moving up to the 25000 level this week.

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GOLD(Apr 2025 chart) generated a totally uneventful inside week that did not accomplish giving any new clues as to what is to happen. It did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside, above last week's high at $2944, will be seen this week. If that does occur, it will likely either be continuation of the uptrend or a needed/required retest of the all-time high at $2974 before the bears come in with a bit of stronger ammunition. On a daily closing basis, the $2900 level has "some" importance as support, but is not pivotal. To the upside, there is daily close resistance at $2945, at $2949 and at the all-time high at $2956. The inflation report on Wednesday could be a catalyst.

OIL generated another red weekly close (the 7th in a row), and got down to both the intraweek and weekly closing supports that are pivotal. On an intraweek basis, support is at 65.25 and Oil got down to 65.24 and on a weekly closing basis, it is at 67.02 and Oil closed at $67.04. Oil did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the pivotal intraweek support level will be broken this week. There is additional weekly close support at 66.74 but it is from 3 years ago (on an intraweek basis, the additional supports at 64.38 and at 63.67). Nonetheless, if the 67.02 weekly close support (65.24 on an intraweek basis) are broken, the bulls will lose almost all of the chart support they have built over the past 3 years, meaning that it will take a bullish fundamental event to give them back any ammunition. On a daily closing basis, the bulls need a confirmed close above 69.51 to give them any chance of reversing the negative action seen this week.

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