Issue #904
March 23, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Uncertainty remains but Tariffs are due to begin on April 2nd and traders will likely await that event before doing anything

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41985
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5667
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19753
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2056

The indexes had an uneventful week, with the DOW rallying 1.1% above the previous weekly close and the rest of the indexes also closing green but with less than a 1% increase in value. The Fed left interest rates unchanged but did mention that there was uncertainty at this time, due to the unclear future results of Trump's actions affecting the economy. Attention has now turned to April 2nd when the tariffs will be clearly defined and implementation of them done.

Due to this present state-of-affairs, the traders did not make any decisions and the outlook for this coming week will also likely be more of the same as seen last week. No economic reports of consequence are due out this week. Having said all of the above and looking at the charts, the bears do presently have the edge and as such, the probabilities favor a slight downside movement this week.

Here are the chart details for this week. In looking at the daily closing chart, the DOW has clear daily close resistance between 41914 and 42080, which comes from 3 previous low daily closes of consequence over the past 6 months, with the last one at 41938 which was pivotal support. The 200-day MA is currently at 42042, meaning that any daily close above 42080 would give the bulls some short-term ammunition. With the index closing at 41985 on Friday, the probabilities favor a red close starting Monday and downside occurring, with a needed/required retest of the recent intraweek daily close low at 40813 sometime during the week.

In the SPX, daily close resistance begins at 5667 (which is where the index closed on Friday) but it gets stronger between 5695 and 5705 and then decent at 5749, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. To the downside, a needed/required retest of the recent low daily close at 5522 is the target for this week. In the NASDAQ, daily close resistance is found at 19824, a bit more at 19908, and then at the 200-day MA, currently at 20292. To the downside, there is daily close support at 19483, minor at 19376 and the recent low daily close at 19225, and then open air to 18796. In the RUT, there is daily close resistance starting at 2091 and up to 2124 and to the downside, there is support starting at 2049 and on down to 1993.

The DOW is the index to watch to the upside and the NASDAQ to the downside. The former was the strongest of the indexes this past week and the latter was the weakest. If something does happen this week, probabilities favor the latter breaking support, rather the former breaking resistance, Either way though, this week should not be pivotal in any way.

HSI index generated a 1300-point move (5.3% drop) from the top of last week's trading range to the low of the trading range and did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 23582 will be seen this week. Having said that, no supports were broken, and the index remains in a chart uptrend, though it is possible that the uptrend has found a temporary high to the rally, due to the percentage of the drop seen. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 23192, which if broken would suggest that at least a temporary high has been made. Further intraweek support is found at 22547, which if broken would mean that a top to the rally has been found. Intraweek resistance is now found at 24076 and stronger at 24669. A break above 24782 would mean the uptrend continues. The chart does suggest that a drop down to around 22736 will be seen this week as the traders await the April 2nd tariffs announcement.


GOLD(Apr 2025 chart) broke above the $3000 psychological resistance and made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high at $3065 and $3021. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, it did close within the $3000 demilitarized zone. In addition, Gold closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $2991 will be seen this week, meaning that it is possible that a top to this rally has been found. On the daily closing chart, there is not support until $2956 level is reached. On the same chart, resistance should now be found at $3040.

OIL generated a 2nd green week in a row and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 68.50 will be seen this week. If that occurs, there is open air above to the 70.60 level (minor intraweek resistance) and then at 71.50 (minor to decent resistance). To the downside, there is daily close support at 67.37 and again at 66.75, which if broken would take away any short-term edge the bulls have achieved over the past 2 weeks. Any break below 65.00 or above 73.37 would be indicative.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions this week given that the week itself is not likely to generate any indicative or short-term action in any direction. After April 2nd (supposedly when tariffs will go into effect) and especially after April 4th (Jobs Report), the traders will be making decisions that will allow trades to be put on that offer good risk/reward ratios and good probability ratings.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

A generated another red weekly close, but the close was only by $.43 cents and the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 123.50 or going below last week's low at 117.92. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday and if it goes above Friday's high at 120.78, it will increase the chances of the stock getting above 123.50 for the week. If that occurs, there is no resistance above until the 125.69 level is reached, which is daily close resistance that should not be broken this week. A close above 126.70 would open the door for more upside and of some note. To the downside, any day close below 117.33 would generate new selling interest.

BCTX generated a 2nd green close week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.57 will be seen this week. In looking at the hourly chart, the stock broke above the 200 60-minute MA on Monday and stayed above it all week. It is of some note, given that the stock broke the line to the downside when the negative news came out on the company back on December 11th and had stayed below that line until this past week (a total of 14 weeks), suggesting the low for the recent downtrend may have been found. An intraweek break above 5.40 will confirm that. A break below that intra-day 60-minute MA, currently at 3.95, would now be a negative.

BTZI did nothing new this week. The traders are awaiting news and it is unlikely any news will come out this week. A close above .0092 would confirm that a rounded 3-year bottom has been built, and from which an uptrend might begin. A close above .017 would confirm all of the above. Any break below .004 would now be a negative of some consequence.

FSLR generated a 2nd red weekly close but then closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 135.70 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low at 125.67 will become the needed/required retest of the multi-year low at 124.96. A break above 140.98 would then confirm that a bottom to this downtrend has been found, which in turn would suggest the 200-week MA, currently at 150.01, would become the target, to be reached within the new 2-4 weeks. To the downside, any break below 124.96 would be a negative.

LXRX generated another new all-time weekly closing low but did it in an uneventful way as the stock went above the previous week's high by $.007 cents and closed red by $.002 cents. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high a .39 or below last week's low at .325. It is evident that the traders are waiting for news and it is not likely they will get it this week. There is a gap up at .063 that if closed, will give the bulls some new ammunition. A break above .746 would confirm that the bottom has been made. There were two new rating companies that began coverage on the company, meaning that there are now 3 of 4 analysts with a strong buy rating. The other rating company has it as "indifferent". Any new low below .286 would be a negative.

PRAA generated a green week (first in the last 5 weeks), meaning that now the stock is showing a double low on the weekly closing chart at 19.60. This also means that the previous 2 weekly closing lows at 19.27 and at 18.84, have been tested successfully on 2 new occasions. With the stock having made a new 16-month intraweek low the previous week, the weekly closes do signal that support for the stock is strong here. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high a 20.56 is expected to be seen this week. Above that level, there is no resistance until 22.08 is reached, which also includes the 100-week MA, currently at 21.99, which is a MA line that was broken on April 2023 and has been tested successfully on 5 different occasions. A close above the line, followed by a intraweek break above 23.97, would make the 200-week MA, currently at 30.94, the objective. Any intraweek break below 18.09 would be a negative. Any daily or weekly close below 19.60 would weaken the bull's hand.

VWDRY generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 19-week intraweek high and the closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.19 will be seen this week. On both the daily and weekly closing chart, the 5.14 level is short-term pivotal, given that it was the breakout level from the 4-month base building action. If that breakout level is confirmed this week, a rally to 5.94 would then likely happen. A confirmed daily close below 5.14 would negate the breakout.

ZLAB generated a red inside week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 34.66 will be seen this week. The stock had a open gap at 36.50 that was a magnet and has now been closed. Nonetheless, the gap down on Friday has also opened the door for an island formation to have occurred, and if that island formation is confirmed (a drop below 31.26), it would bring in new selling. There is another gap at 34.08 that is also a magnet. Closure of that gap is likely to occur this week and then closure of the down gap at 37.20 will become a magnet. There has been no news, meaning that all the action seen is all chart oriented.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 38.09.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.21.

3) LXRX - Purchased at .93 Averaged long at 1.513 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .363.

4) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.47.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 155.50 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 131.32.

6) A - Shorted at 138.36. Stop loss now at 138.69. Stock closed on Friday at 120.75.

7) PRAA - Purchased at 19.99. Stop loss now at 18.65 (stop close only). Stock closed on Friday at 20.37.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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