Issue #905
March 30, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


This is a very important week, which is likely to decide the short-term direction of the market.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 41583
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5580
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19281
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2023

The fear regarding the consequences of the tariffs that are supposed to go into effect this Wednesday (April 2nd) gave fuel to the bears this past week, with every index except the DOW making a new 6-month weekly closing lows. All indexes closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 41530, SPX at 5572, NAZ at 19241, and RUT at 2013) will be seen this week. Having said all of the above, none of the indexes broke the intraweek lows that were made 4-weeks ago, meaning that the bears need more downside this week, before they gain further control, in order to reach the next critical mid-to-long-term objects, which if broken would officially establish a downtrend is in effect.

The intraweek lows are at: In the DOW at 40,661, in the SPX at 5504, the NASDAQ at 19,152, and the RUT at 1984. As you can see, the NAZ is the index closest to its low (closed at 19,281 on Friday) and if that level breaks, there is open air below to 18,400 (another 881 points lower). A weekly close below 18,421 would be highly indicative as it would make the 200-week MA, currently at 15,702, a magnet. The index to watch though, is the SPX, given that if the intraweek low at 5504 is broken, there is open air down to the 5400 area, and if a weekly close below 5344 occurs, its 200-week MA, currently at 4669, would also become a potential magnet.

Evidently there are a lot of negative things that need to happen for all of those downside targets to become true objectives. Those "things" (unemployment and inflation going up and GDP and manufacturing going down) are not going to become tangible negatives for months. Nonetheless, this week's reports (ISM and JOBS), as well as the true picture of Trump's tariffs will be short-term indicative. This means that of this writing, the charts only supply the support levels that are indicative, but don't supply any probability information.

Evidently the weekly close resistance levels above (Friday) will be short-term indicative. A close above these levels would be short-term indicative. In the DOW at 41,985, in the SPX at 5728, in the NASDAQ at 20.033 and in the RUT at 2080.

The RUT does have a bit of a special meaning this week as it closed near the 200-week MA, currently at 2013 (closed at 2023). It has trailed the market for the last week and compared to the other indexes, it has been the lagger. If the index closes below the line, it will be seen as "negative note" and if the break is confirmed with a weekly close below 1947, it will be seen as a "dagger in the back of the bulls".

It is evident that for the next 3 months, the bears will have the "edge" but thereafter is a complete blank (at this time). Trump's actions are meant to have a positive outcome for the economy. Whether it works out that way or not is a total mystery right now. Nonetheless, by July, things will likely be clear.

HSI index generated another red weekly close (3rd in a row), but nothing was broken. The index closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below 23256 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 22547 (22736 on a weekly closing basis), which if broken would mean the recent uptrend has come to a stop. The monthly close is on Monday and the 22961 level is considered indicative support. A close on Monday above 23477 will keep the uptrend "intact". On a daily closing basis, 23905 in indicative resistance and a close below 22941 would weaken the chart. With the already stated tariff increases likely built in to the price, only an increase above what has been stated, will have a negative effect.


GOLD(Jun 2025 chart) made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3131 will be seen this week. In looking at the daily chart, Gold shows a runaway/breakaway gap that should give the bulls new ammunition for even more short-term upside. A close of the gap at $3102, followed by a daily close below $3071, would suggest that further correction will be seen. Nonetheless, with the current fundamental picture, the bulls have total control.

OIL generated a 3rd green week in a row and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 70.21 will be seen this week. If that occurs, there is open air above to the 70.60 level (minor intraweek resistance) and then at 71.50 (minor to decent resistance). To the downside, there is daily close support at 67.37 and again at 66.75, which if broken would take away any short-term edge the bulls have achieved over the past 2 weeks. Any break below 65.00 or above 73.37 would be indicative.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Once again, I have no mentions this week given that there are important reports scheduled, and Trump will be announcing his tariffs implementations on Wednesday. After all of these come out, the short-term outlook will be made clear.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

A generated negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then making a new 29-week intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 116.36 is expected to be seen this week. There is decent to perhaps even strong intraweek support between 112.52 and 113.28 (112.71-115.79 on a weekly closing basis) that should be seen but not broken, unless the market outlook is for even lower prices. A weekly close next Friday below 112.71, would suggest a drop down to 102.77 would be seen. On a monthly closing basis (Monday), the 118.77 level is support. Any daily close above 123.10 would take away ammunition from the bears.

BCTX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek high and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.77 will be seen this week. The break above the 60-minute MA seen the previous week, was negated, meaning that the bulls lost whatever slight edge they may have obtained. The MA line is at 4.00, meaning that if the bulls can get above the line, stay above the line for at least 2 hours, and confirm that with a rally above 4.36, the bulls will gain the edge back. Otherwise, there is no support below until 3.35 is reached. That support is decent.

BTZI generated a negative reversal week, having gone above and below the previous week's trading range, and closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .003 will be seen this week. The stock did close at a pivotal daily and weekly closing level at .004, meaning that the closes this entire week will be indicative. A rally above last week's high at .007 would negate the action seen this past week.

FSLR generated a new 43-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 124.32 will be seen this week. There is one remaining intraweek support at 115.65 (118.28 on a daily closing basis and 122.60 on a weekly closing basis) that is indicative and pivotal. There has been no negative news to support this weakness. In fact, on Friday, Jefferies raised his buy rating objective from $201 to $202. In addition, the company announced there were supporting their U.S. based facilities for building Solar panels. Daily close resistance is now found at 131.46. A daily close above that level would give the bulls the short-term edge.

LXRX signed a pact agreement with Novo Nordisk for its obesity drug, which is worth $1 billion dollars. On the news, the stock rallied 75% in value (from the previous weekly close to last week's intraweek high) and closed 58% higher. The news and the action does suggest that a bottom has been found. Nonetheless, the bulls have to do more before that becomes a reality, given that they need to generate a daily close above .65 cents (closed at .57 with an intraweek high at .70) for it to become a tangible statement of a bottom. A close above .784 would generate a buy signal and a close above 1.00 would be a game-changer in favor of the bulls. Any daily close below .39 would give control back to the bears. This was a fundamentally based rally, suggesting that the gap up at .35 will likely be followed with another gap up, likely to be seen this coming week (probably after Wednesday's announcement of the Tariffs.

PRAA generated a green week but then closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.25 will be seen this week. The recent multi-week low at 18.00 has not yet gotten the needed/required retest of it, suggesting that is what will be happening this week. The 19.60 level represents important and pivotal support and is a likely target for this week. If that holds up and then stock gets above last week's high 21.33 the following week, it will see new buying interest. Any close below 19.60 would be a negative.

VWDRY gapped down this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.72, will be seen this week. There was no news to support the gap, and as such, this move down is likely temporary. The stock already shows 3 previous successful retests of the 4.19 low and this will likely end up being the 4th. The last retest was at 4.46 and as such, that level should not be broken. The stock did close on Friday $.05 below the daily close breakout level at 4.80, and as such, it is likely that it will move below 4.72 on Monday but close green. A daily close above 5.14 should bring the buyers back.

ZLAB generated an outside week, having gone below last week's low and then above last week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39.77 will be seen this week. The company announced this past week that it will be presenting new data for their cancer drug at the American Association for Cancer Research meeting on April 25th- 30th. With the new multi-month intraweek high and the news, it is now likely that the stock will get up to the 200-week MA, currently at 44.59, before the meeting occurs. The only possible stumbling block is Trump's tariffs. Nonetheless and unless Trump raises them above what has already been announced, it is not likely to be a negative. A drop below last week's low at 33.33 will be a negative. A daily close above 38.35 would be a stimulant for the move to the MA line.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.29.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.76.

3) LXRX - Purchased at .93 Averaged long at 1.513 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .57.

4) BCTX - Purchased at .775. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.977.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 155.50 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 127.32.

6) A - Shorted at 138.36. Stop loss now at 138.69. Stock closed on Friday at 116.69.

7) PRAA - Purchased at 19.99. Stop loss now at 18.65 (stop close only). Stock closed on Friday at 20.52.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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