This week is a short-term pivotal week, meaning that something of consequence is likely to happen after Wednesday's Fed rate decision. Normally, and especially for those that like to play a "safe and conservative" game plan, waiting until that report comes out would be the "thing to do". Nonetheless that could end up giving the trades less of a risk/reward ratio with a bigger risk than the profit potential available. As such, taking on short trades, which because the probabilities do slightly favor the bears for the rest of the month, is what I am planning to do. The only thing that makes common sense right now, is shorting stocks that are overbought and with clear resistance levels above, making the risk/reward ratios attractive but slightly lowering the probability ratings.

GILD Friday Closing Price - 114.55

GILD is a bio-pharmaceutical company that has been on a 15-month uptrend from a low of 62.07 to 121.83. Nonetheless, the stock made that high 5 weeks ago and closed red the following 3-weeks, with the first week being a negative reversal week. The stock has given back 8% in value. It is interesting to note that 3+ weeks ago, the company received 3 upgrades from rating companies giving it a $130-$135 objective and that the short interest in the stock is only 1.6%, and yet, the stock continued to fall, contrary to what the index market did and what normally happens when rating companies raise their objectives. This is a sign that perhaps the stock has reached a high to the rally.

GILD generated a negative reversal week and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 113.82 will be seen this week. If that does occur, and the stock does not go above last week's high, the necessary/required retest of the 10-year intraweek high at 121.83 will have occurred with last week's high at 118.11. If the stock then closes on Friday below 112.97, the retest of the all-time high weekly chart will have occurred as well.

GILD now shows on the 10-minute chart, clearly defined 10-minute closing resistance around the 116.30 level, which does include the 200-10-minute MA at 115.83. This means that both the desired entry point and stop loss points have changed. The desired entry point will now be around the 115.83 level and the stop loss point will now be above last week's high, meaning the stop loss point is now 118.35. The downside chart objective of GILD is the previous all-time high weekly close at 96.57, which also fits in with the monthly close support at 94.26

One last thing that makes this trade very attractive is that GILD made a new 10-year intramonth high in August at 121.37, but failed to break the all-time intraweek high at 123.37. In addition, the stock closed in the lower half of last month's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last month's low at 108.54 will be seen this month.

Sales of GILD around the 115.83 level and using a stop loss at 118.35 and having a downside objective of 96.57 will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

TNC Friday Closing Price - 81.03

TNC is a stock that I shorted in August and made a very small profit on. The stock has done nothing much since I got out but the chart does show the probabilities slightly favoring shorting the stock now and once again. Since the first week in July (when a small breakout occurred), the stock has traded sideways between 85.43 and 78.63. Nonetheless, the 85.43 high now shows 4 successful retests of it on the daily chart (with highs at 84.42, at 83.99, at 83.50 and at 83.12) and a successful retest of the double high on the weekly closing chart (at 83.62/83.7), with a high weekly close high at 82.94 the previous week, and a red close at 81.03 on Friday. The failure of the bears to renew the uptrend, at the time where the index market has been in a runaway-freight-train path during these same 13-weeks, strongly suggests that the stock is now likely to head down.

TNC has been above the 200-week MA, currently at 80.55, for all of the last 13 weeks, but having gone down to 79.75 last week and having closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside will be seen this week, does suggest that the weekly close breakout level at 77.02 is likely to be tested and if broken, a drop down to at least the intramonth support at 74.22 could be seen by the end of the month.

Sales of TNC around the 81.37 level (or above) and using a stop loss at 83.22 and having a 74.22 objective, will offer a 3.8-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

ORCL Friday Closing Price - 292.15

ORCL got great news on the 10th of this month (4-days ago) and rose 43% above Tuesday's close. The news was that it signed 3 new contracts with big companies that were to give them income of $455 billion, instead of the income of $185 billion that was previously anticipated. The stock reached an all-time high of 345.72. Nonetheless, the stock sold off +$53 off of the high (to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range), suggesting that the probabilities of an inside week are high (neither above or below last week's trading range). The one problem that was created with this news is that doubts as to the company's ability to fulfill the now very high expectations for profit and activity to earn that profit, surged, meaning that fulfilling those expectations are now high and not likely to be addressed or answered in the short-term. This also means that this week's high may be the high until that proof is shown.

ORCL closed on the low of the day on Friday, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 291.75 will be seen on Monday. The previous all-time high daily close at 252.53 will now be a target for being tested, and if the Fed does not surprise on Wednesday and the dichotomy between the NASDAQ and the DOW turns in favor of the latter, tech stocks will be hit, especially those with the high expectations, but with problems in achieving those expectations (such as this company).

If ORCL goes lower and closes out the month below the mid-point of the month's trading range, it could be facing a drop to the previous all-time monthly closing high at 184.84. The probabilities do not favor the level being tested but this month's low at 218.79 would likely be tested.

One problem with this short trade is where to put a viable stop loss on the trade, given that using the recent all-time high would not offer a good risk/reward ratio. As such, the intraday chart has to be used to determine the stop loss, meaning the the probability rating on this trade is low. The immediate momentum is to the downside and using that 60-minute intraday chart, resistance is found at 296.80, meaning the stop loss will be at 297.35.

Shorting ORCL at Friday's closing price at 292.15 and using a stop loss at 297.35 and having a viable downside target of at least 259.80 (objective on the intraday chart) or down to 252.53 (objective of the daily closing chart, will offer at least a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the highest).

AXP Friday Closing Price - 325.31

AXP has rallied 33% over the past 5 months and in August, it made a new all-time monthly close high at 331.28 (above the previous one made in January at 317.45. On the weekly chart, the stock has made 2 all-time weekly closing highs above January's all-time high weekly close at 321.34 (the 2 new all-time high weekly closes have been at 328.13 and 4 weeks ago at 331.28). Nonetheless, the stock is presently having a negative reversal month and if it ends that way and with a close below 326.43 (middle of the month's trading range - so far), it would not only be a negative reversal month, but further downside would likely be seen in October. On the weekly chart, the stock has given a confirmed failure signal, having closed below 328.13 the last 2 weeks and also closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 320.80 will be the most likely scenario for this week.

The last time (last week in June) that AXP made the all-time intraweek high, it corrected 12.4% and given that there is no intraweek support built until 301.73 is reached, a drop down to that level would be very viable as it would be only a 6.3% correction. In looking at the daily chart, the situation is slightly worse for the bulls than on the other 2 charts, given that the stock made the all-time high weekly close at 331.28 and not only has that high now had 2 successful retests of it, but it has also given a failure signal on both the previous all-time highs this year at 328.13 and 325.87 (closed on Friday at 325.31).

The only thing the bears have left to do, is generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart, which would happen if the stock closes any day this week below 323.35. Such a sell signal would open the door for a fall down to at least 302.97, which would coincide with the established monthly close support at 299. 31 and also with the weekly close support, also at 302.97.

As far as the desired entry point and stop loss point are concerned, AXP, shows that there is clearly defined resistance on the 10-minute closing chart at 326.16 level and established daily close resistance at 329.32. This means that shorting the stock should be done around the former and a stop loss point (on a daily closing basis), 10 points above the latter, with an objective around the $300 level. This trade offer a risk/reward ratio of 6-1. My rating on this trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the highest).