Issue #920
Jul 20, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tariff announcements are the key to the market right now. Another week before they are shown.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 44342
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6296
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 23065
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2240

Once again and for the 3rd week in a row, the SPX and the NASDAQ made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs. The economic and earnings reports this week continued to be positive and bullish, but the rally has slowed down during the last 3 weeks, given that those 2 indexes have only increased in value less than 1% over this period of time, the DOW has slipped down 1.1% and the RUT is down very slightly. All indexes closed on or near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW above 44571, SPX above 6315, NASDAQ above 23151, and the RUT above 2269) will be seen this week.

Even though the rally has slowed down, there are no potential economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week that could be catalysts for a strong move up or down, suggesting more of the same type of action will be seen this week. The economic reports due out this week are New Home Sales and Durable Goods and the earnings reports include GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and INTC. None of these (with the possible exception of GOOGL) should generate new buying or selling in the overall market. The following week though, does have some potentially catalytic reports. For now though, this week should generally be uneventful. On the other side of the hand, NFLX, JPM and GS have reported good earnings and yet NFLX made a new 5 week low, GS made a new 3 week low, and JPM has not gone anywhere, meaning that good reports are not necessarily generating any new buy interest.

The intraweek chart support levels to watch this week are as follows: The DOW at 43758, the SPX at 6201, the NASDAQ at 22675, and the RUT at 2189. None of these levels will like be "in play" this week but if they are and are broken, it will generate automatic computer and algorithm sales.

In looking at the overall charts, I consider that the probability of this week being a red week (in the top 2 indexes), being high.

HSI Index made a new 41-month weekly closing high and a new 17-week intraweek high (came within 5 points of the 41-month intraweek high) and closed near the high of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 24869 will be seen this week. The economic reports this past week came in better than expected and the Chinese president has promised additional stimulus will be given. This action and news does suggest the index will be moving higher. Having said that, the index if facing decent weekly and monthly close resistance at the 25,000 level that should keep the index from moving substantially higher until the tariff war gets cleared up. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, pivotal support is found at 23,887.


GOLD(Aug 2025 chart) generated another totally uneventful week, having had a smaller trading range than the week before and closing just $6 below the previous week's close. The same levels as mentioned in the last newsletter remain in place. The upside objective of this move is the $3399 level. A weekly close above $3838 or below $3287 would be short-term indicative. This week, Gold is likely to trade between $3343 and $3399 (based on daily closes) unless news comes out.

OIL had exactly the kind of a week that was expected (as given in the last newsletter. Nonetheless, Oil did generate a negative reversal week, having gone up to the intraweek resistance area at 71.40 (high was 71.52) and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 67.71 will be seen this week. The fundamental news this past week was mixed, with OPEC announcing Oil output increases but on the other side, demand for Oil was greater than anticipated as well. The levels to watch on an intraweek basis are 71.52 and 66.34. Whichever gets broken will generate some follow through of short-term consequence. Probabilities do not favor either one happening.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I am going to take a few shots (gamble) this week. None of the mentions have a good probability number but the risk/reward ratios are good enough that the gamble (if successful) will be worth it. The downside objectives on both of these mentions are doable, given that neither of them (reaching the objective) would be a "game changer" for the stock. Both of the mentions are in stocks that report earnings thie week and given that stocks have generally been reporting better than expected earnings, but have sold off thereafter, that is what the gamble is based upon.

IBM Friday Closing Price - 285.87

Desired entry point = around 287.65.
Stop loss point = 292.47 (on a daily closing basis).
Objective = 264.32
Risk/Reward ratio = 4.8-1

Reports Wednesday after the close.

GM Friday Closing Price - 53.22

Desired entry point = above 54.00.
Stop loss point - 55.16 (on a daily closing basis).
Objective = 49.89.
Risk/Reward ratio = 3.5-1

Reports Tuesday before the opening.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

BCTX generated a new all-time low at .69 on Monday, after the news of another 12 million stock offering was announced at a price of $1.25. The stock offering was completed on Tuesday and the low held for the rest of the week. Nonetheless, the dilution of the shares is a negative that will not even begin to go away until the company announces benefits from having done that. Having said that, the stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .84 will be seen this week. Evidently, resistance will now be found at 1.25, meaning that is the target for the next few weeks. On a positive note, the company did announce that they have begun working with the Mayo clinic and given that it is a highly known and well-respected entity, it does suggest that the probabilities favor the company's Cancer drug (already at the beginning of Phase 3, and so far showing very positive results) being a success that could be highly positive to the price of the stock over the long term (by mid 2026). As such, this stock is no longer tradeable for the short-term, but it is a buy and hold product (if you believe in the fundamental outlook for the drug). Evidently, the .69 cent level should now be considered an indicative support level.

LXRX generated a new 33-week intraweek and weekly closing high but closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 1.43 or below last week's low at 1.05. The stock did generate a new buy signal and a new failure signal (against the bears), both of indicative consequence, meaning that the previous daily and weekly closing highs at .99 and the previous daily and weekly closing low at 1.01, are now decent and indicative weekly close supports. Probabilities do favor those levels being seen before further upside is seen but probabilities also favor the stock continuing its recovery rally thereafter. The short-term upside objective of this breakout is now the 1.60 level with the 200-week MA, currently at 2.04, being the objective to be reached within the next 2-3 months (or less).

TCEHY generated a new 4-month weekly closing high, but then again, it was not decisive given that it was only by $.01 cents. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 66.74 will be seen this week. The Chinese index suggesting further (but limited) action will be seen this week, does suggest the stock will do the same. There is intraweek resistance at 68.53, which if broken would suggest the 4-year high at 71.82 would be tested and likely broken, meaning that a break above 68.53 would be a good reason to consider covering the shorts. To the downside, intraweek support is now found at 64.94. A break below 62.71 would negate the upside evaluation.

TXN generated a negative week as well as a failure (or lack of confirmation) to the previous week's breakout to new all-time highs, having closed below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 220.29 (closed at 216.62). The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 211.71 than above last week's high at 221.40. The company reports earnings this week on Tuesday after the close (I erroneously stated in last week's newsletter that it would be last Tuesday). Having said that, the action last week was unexpectedly negative and that has colored the short-term outlook in favor of the bears. In looking at "whales" option buying this past week, the bears are beating the bulls (puts vs calls) by 2-1. If last week's low is broken, there is no intraweek support below until 202.80 (very minor support). To the upside, last week's intraweek high is now indicative resistance.

VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then rallying 15% to make a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.24 will be seen this week. The stock generated an indicative failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above a previous low weekly close of indicative consequence at 5.94 (closed at 6.19). On a daily closing basis, that level is 5.77. The next level of daily and weekly close resistance is at 6.51 and that level should be the objective this week. Having said that, the 6.51 level is also a previous low and as such, should not be considered a strong resistance. The 200-week MA is at 8.08 and it should be the next objective, to be reached over the next 4-8 weeks.

YUMC generated a negative week, having failed to follow through to the upside (as expected) and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 46.25 will be seen this week. The red weekly close means that the previous week's close at 47.60 is now a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 47.63. The next intraweek support is found at 45.34, and that should be this week's objective. Any rally above the previous week's high at 48.36 would be considered bullish. The 200-day MA is currently at 46.70 and that has been a short-term pivotal line for the past 3-months, having closed above the line on 24 trading days and below the line on 37 trading days.

ZLAB generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 33.29 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a green weekly close but then only by $.84 cents, meaning that it was not an indicative green close. The stock did fall 8.5% from the high of the week and it was disappointing as the bulls gave up the small edge they had obtained the previous week. There was no news to support the weakness, in fact just the opposite as the Chinese index had a strong and indicative up week. On an intraweek basis, the recent low at 32.31, which if broken would suggest the 200-day MA, currently at 30.70, would be targeted. A daily close above 35.44 would negate this short-term bearish scenario.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.57.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.19.

3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.23.

4) BCTX - Averaged long at 7.825 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .798.

5) TXN - Averaged short at 194.95 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 216.62.

6) YUMC - Shorted at 44.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.83.

7) TCEHY - Shorted at 66.15. Stop loss is at 66.37. Stock closed on Friday at 66.03.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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