DOW Friday Closing Price - 39142
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5282
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 18258
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1880

With the exception of the DOW (which generated a negative reversal week), all of the other indexes generated a relatively uneventful inside week but where the bears had the upper hand. Having said that though, the indexes were expected to generate a bit more recovery (after the previous week's strong positive reversal week) but didn't, and that was based on additional negative news that came out where Fed Chief Powell said that the tariffs were "a challenging scenario that were significantly larger than expected". That statement was then followed by Trump stating "Powell's termination cannot come soon enough". All of this selling interest was then supported by a 22% drop in price in the largest health care company in the U.S. (United Health), due to lower earnings and higher costs of Medicare. As such, the bulls failed to keep the recovery rally moving forward.

With the exception of the RUT, which generated a green week and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, all indexes closed on or near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows at DOW 38950, SPX 5220 and NASDAQ 17995. There are no economic reports of possible catalytic importance this week. The earnings quarter has started and this week will be mostly DOW stocks, though on Thursday after the close, Google (GOOGL) reports. Nonetheless, this quarter's earnings are not likely to be as catalytic as in other quarters, given that the attention is more on what Trump is doing (and the actual results) and the earnings will not yet be reflecting what has occurred.

Chart-wise, the red weekly closes did take away the short-term edge that the bulls had obtained the previous week, meaning that the bears have the edge for now. By the same token and without any catalytic reports due out this week and the recent lows being quite far away from Friday's closes, it is unlikely that anything of consequence will be resolved this week.

The DOW shows 3 intraweek support levels before a pivotal level is reached. Support is found at 38497, at 38000, and at 37611. With the index closing on Friday at 39142, it is highly unlikely that all 3 of those support levels will be broken. In the SPX, there are 2 levels of intraweek support at 5119 and at 4953 (closed on Friday at 5282), and in the NASDAQ, there are also 2 levels of intraweek support at 17435 and at 16973 (closed on Friday at 18258). If all of those levels of support are broken, the indexes then have the recent intraweek lows at 36611, at 4835, and at 16542 (respectively). Those lower levels are not likely to be in play this week, unless some negative fundamental news of consequence comes out.

To the upside, these are the levels to watch, which if broken would give the bulls the edge back (that they were supposed to have last week). In the DOW that intraweek resistance level is at 40778. In the SPX it is at 5481, and in the NASDAQ, it is at 19234. A break of those resistance levels would open the door for the upside objectives that were mentioned in last week's newsletter, to be reached.

Right now everything is in "no man's land" due to the uncertainty in the results of what Trump is doing, and even more so in his ability (or lack thereof) of doing what he has set out to do. Several issues are now heading to the Supreme Court and the resolution of those issues will begin to clear up the market picture. Nonetheless, there is no timetable for those decisions to be made and announced, meaning confusion in the marketplace will continue. Having said that, the bears will continue to have the edge, especially after the failure of the bulls to further extend the rally this past week.

HSI index generated a 2nd green weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21565 will be seen this week. The index has recovered 10% from the low seen the previous week and if the bulls can generate a daily close above 21466 (closed on Thursday at 21365), there is open air above to 22636, which is where the down gap occurred after the 145% tariffs were announced. On the other side of the coin, a drop below 20868 would open the door for a drop down to 19706. There is not enough information right now with which to give a probability rating on either outlook.

GOLD(Jun 2025 chart) is in a "runaway freight train" status, having rallied 23.4% over the past 18 weeks and 18.6% since Trump got into office. Gold closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3373 will be seen this week. Gold now shows momentum-stopping intraweek support at $2970. By the same token, a daily close below $3166 would suggest that the "runaway freight train" status is over. Having said all of the above, Gold is likely to continue higher until some fundamental change occurs.

OIL bulls were able to stop the selling interest that occurred when Oil broke the $60 level of support. A combination of new sanctions on Iran and better compliance among OPEC nations on production cuts, has allowed the bulls to rally Oil 15.2% over the past 7 trading days. Oil did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 64.86 will be seen this week. Having said that though, the bulls have not yet been able to generate enough of a rally so it can be said the downtrend is over. A daily close above 65.68 would generate a failure signal against the bears but that would still require a weekly close above 67.06 to confirm. A daily close below 62.35 would take away the edge that the bulls accomplished this week, and a daily close below 59.58 would give full control back to the bears.